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It's official Cindy is a killer. She blew a log ashore and hit a child,killing the child..
Here is the link
http://www.al.com/news/mobile/index.ssf/2017/06/tropical_storm_cindy_2017_powe.html#incart_river_home_pop



It's official we have tropical storm Cindy in the Gulf
Summary for Tropical Storm Cindy (AT3/AL032017)
June 20, 2017, 12:33 PM
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 the center of Cindy was located near 25.9, -90.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 4A
June 20, 2017, 12:33 PM
...NOW that Cindy is stationary EXPECT to see warning issued farter East as I suspect we will see a more NORTHERLY movement and then Cindy will move NNE to NE...Be ready in the Florida Panhandle as this increases your chances of severe weather as more of the flow will effect more of the panhandle..STAY TUNED!

Good morning had to turn the Weather Channel off. Why? Bad grammar, the warning for my area pops on every minute and every time they do they mispronounce the nearest city. I mean would you respect or listen to station that pronounced Miami "MIMI"...Well that's how bad they mispronounce MOBILE ,AL...they call us something in motion or an OIL company..We are a French founded city and it's pronounced with the "i" being two long "e"s. How sad to look so dumb to a national audience. Hey Weather Channel you have covered the Gulf Coast for 20 years now with Hurricanes and still cant get our name right...OK Rant over!

Looks like Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is going to dump ton's of rain on the Gulf Coast. Here is the potential track:

Expect 8" or greater of rain East of the Center
KEEP IN MIND the worst impacts from this storm will be EAST of the center. Rain from Potential Tropical cyclone Three is already impacting the Coast

More later

TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
Location: 24.7°N 88.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017






6/19/17 afternoon update...This could be the reason we wont see a lot of development in the gulf.
This is an ULL and it will create shear in the 50kt to 60kt range. It should keep our system at bay and help move the area north quicker...


I normally don't do a lot of forecasting, when I do it's mainly tropical weather. This week there is a lot of buzz going on about the Southern Gulf of Mexico and a West moving tropical wave in the Mid Atlantic between Africa and the Windward Islands. KEEP IN MIND this time of year I am a big skeptic of anything forming. "If" I were to forecast any June storm at all 98% of the time it would be a developing hybrid system due to fronts that stall over the Northern Gulf from the lingering effects of last winters zonal flow..See old man winter don't give up trying to influence the weather most of the time until the Sun hits the tropic of Cancer which is June 21 at 5:00 PM EDT.  From that point on Summer rules and my forecast for tropical weather become less skeptical as the main ingredient for the soup( Heat) is here to stay until old man winter turns the sea breeze back to his zonal flow..

Three things that make me a skeptic in June and they are in play!

1: Shear when the seasons change,there is always shear and we have that!

2 Zonal Flow. and yes that is lingering over the Gulf and is still an influence..



3: Outliers due to two weather patterns at war...the zonal flow and the Bermuda high trying to bring in summers trade winds. This can complicate things in June and many things the models miss can kill any development quick...

Let's start closest to home...
The area with a yellow X in the Extreme Western Caribbean Sea.


Do you see a big red area anymore? No you see a yellow X.
Why? The NHC loved that area yesterday but today they don't
Look to reason number 1 SHEAR. Looks like the shear in the area is around 30kts which is double what's needed for tropical systems to thrive. The tendency is to lessen a bit maybe 10 kts but not enough to really expect things to go boom!



Now should something develop in the Southern Gulf..oh where oh where would it go?

West...for a day then North and then ,you guessed it Northeast when it finds old man winter's last lingering effects of zonal flow..yet another blow to the system..
I predict the panhandle of Florida to Just South of the Big Bend area as the place the system may end up..
One way or another someone may get copious amounts of rain!..I am skeptical of any real development..
But I will be watching and will make a new blog should one be needed.

Now area 2 The NHC actually gives this tropical wave a chance. For this wave to come off Africa and hold together at all this early in the season is NOT normal..
Shows one thing to me.. The ITCZ may be very active this year and come August when the Cape Verde Season arrives, we may see a few more storms than expected and the number of storms may ramp up on the Mid Season Forecast!..ALL SPECULATION

But This area is there, it is real and the NHC gives it a 30% chance. I give it a 90% chance of being a cloud when it meanders with the ITCZ then breaks off and heads WNW and slams into 40kt shear. I am very much a skeptic of this one making the Windward Islands.

So my first tropical forecast of the year amounts to nothing because I see nothing...

thoughts?

Thanks for the thoughts.

Like I said I would update if needed...It might be needed.

What I noticed over night was a change in the atmosphere that added more ingredients to the tropical soup.

For a system to develop you need things to be able to come together at the surface so this is called Lower Level Convergence. Guess what, that is developing as you can see the convergence is increasing in the extreme Western Caribbean.


Then at the same time when you have this convergence the air gets lifted. This air needs a vent we call this upper air divergence and as you can see by the chart below it is increasing.

Now if a tropical system can't breathe it cant live...look at upper level divergence and lower level convergence as way way a tropical system breathes. It takes air in at the surface and exhales in the upper atmosphere. Now that this is improving you can see why the chances are better for development...so we have a better maybe!!! Lets watch some more...

Since this has been a continuing blog on the possible development of a system , we will update as things needed for development happen...

As we see tha NHC upped the chances again...Maybe they see what I see and that's yet another ingredient to our soup..
That ingrediant is the Diurnal Cycle..
At night due to the water temperature being higher than the air temperature this heat rises. This excellerates the lift from the Low Pressure causing more storms to develop with higher towers. We see this happened last night


During the day time the air temperature is higher than the water temperature creating a Cap in the atmosphere(inversion) and you see less thunderstorm activity...Like yesterday when there was little storms tied to the system...they would build and quickly dissipate...

So we now have one more tropical ingredient...so the chances for development increase...

STAY TUNED!

This morning the broad area of Low pressure is over the Northeast Yucatan Coast moving North. I expect to see some organization today. I now have the feeling this will be a subtropical storm(Meaning the storm develops North of the tropic of Cancer) Unless a storm develops in the tropics it's considered subtropical but that don't mean underestimate the potential strength. A subtropical storm can become a hurricane.

Now as for a forecast I really don't see this system ramping up to Hurricane strength. For the reasons listed above from the original blog.

It will still head NNW then N and maybe even NE ...

The shear levels over the Gulf ahead of this system is up to 50kts and will increase as we have a Mid to upper Level Low deepening over Texas. You can see this on today's weather map:



We will be watching!!! Have a great day!