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Post by gomexwx on Sun Jun 16, 2013 11:06 am

Early this morning I noticed the NHC placed a 20% yellow circle in an area of the Western Caribbean. Knowing through Climatology that area of the Caribbean is one of the most likely places for development this time of year,it has my attention. 20% is a high number in comparison to the 0%,5% and 10% numbers you normally see..That speaks volumes to me as they don't believe the models and have a seat of the pants feeling.
   Now my thoughts on this system...

1st: The disturbed weather is in a favorable area for this time of the season..

2nd: Wind Shear is High in the area but I feel the shear tendency is more important giving the WNW progress I believe the area will track.

3rd: Upper level divergence and lower level convergence.

Now to put these thoughts to words and graphics so I can blow my first tropical forecast of the year:)

The disturbance is aligned with climatology so there is one plus towards development.
Tropical Teaser? 6_11_20_nhc
Now lets look at wind shear :

Tropical Teaser? Wg8shr
Shear levels are between 20 and 40 kts...But to me that is not significant because this image is not fluid, so I will rely more on the tendency at this stage in the disturbances life.  So before I check the tendency I need an idea on where it's going.
Looking at the steering currents I'd say the disturbance moves WNW followed by an NW movement after 48 hours.

Tropical Teaser? Wg8dlm1
Now that we feel the direction we can look at the shear tendency to where the disturbance will be.
Tropical Teaser? Wg8sht

Looks like the shear increase could be temporary as shear levels are dropping by 5kts either side of an narrow area of increase along  the path I feel the disturbance will take.

 Lower level convergence:

Tropical Teaser? Wg8conv

Looks like convergence at the lower levels are on the rise which is conducive.

Upper level Divergence:

Tropical Teaser? Wg8dvg

Looks like we have divergence aloft ..

So putting all these thoughts together I will actually give the area a little higher chance to develop than the NHC...If it does we will then watch the disturbance as it slides in to the Southern Gulf of Mexico mid week....

It's time to hurry up and wait!!

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Post by sangria on Sun Jun 16, 2013 12:13 pm

Very nice write up, Gomey..... will be interesting to watch this blob, and see how far west it goes, before getting pulled upward......

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