New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

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New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Sun Dec 29, 2013 3:45 pm

A very interesting series of events should play out over the next week.

Severe cold for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and the New England States is almost a sure bet at this point. The ensembles have maintained the area of extreme cold for sometime now. Here is a look at the blocking setting up to push the cold air South



Another note of intrest, it is anticiped that New York and Boston with both see the Single digits and teens for the first time in 3 years. Why is this significant? It just adds further credence of the depth of the air mass moving in for the New Years.



New York City would have its first single-digit low since January 24, 2011 when the mercury fell to 6°. Boston would have its first subzero low since January 24, 2011 when the temperature reached -2°. The last time Boston had a temperature of -10° or lower was January 15, 1957 when the temperature bottomed out at -12°.

Ahead of this first shot of very cold air, expect a Miller B-type system that will likely form somewhere off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with a primary system moving into the Ohio Valley. Expect snow fall from Philly to New England. The models are in disagrement of where the heavist snow will talke plce so I am going in the middle of the two.

EURO more to the South


GFS more to the North


Either way you look at it, there is a significant storm that will develope and affect peeps from Newyears eveish to January 3rd or so.

Lets look at some of the modeling for the next couple of weeks.







Now, what is intersting the EURO is kinda hinting at the cold shifting to the West after a cople of weeks, while the GFS is staying put. I am going with the GFS on this one for now by looking at the signs.

This kind set up is simular to the winter of 93- 94. This period was very very cold. With the

Negative Artic Oscillation equal COLD Eastern US

Negative Atlantic Oscillation equals COLD in the Eartern US

Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) equals COLS in the Eastern US

Western Pacific Oscillation equals, you gessed it COLD

East PAcific Oscillation dumps  shiver 


Lets look at the CFSv2 which some folks preach when they are on their AGW soapbox.

I recall seeing this on a forum when they were preaching their cause on a warmer than normal Winter.


This it what the same CFSv2 was updated to as the Artic outbreak was occuring. LOL


On a positive note:
GLobal Sea Ice is above normal


Antartic Ice Shelf continues on the increase


Current evdience



http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/29/world/antarctica-ship-stuck/

And the Chinese Ice Breaker trying to rescue that ship, got stuck in the ice itself.

http://www.china.org.cn/china/2013-12/29/content_31035258.htm

Interesting times ahead.
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Dec 30, 2013 7:03 am

First! Thanks E. The winter coats are getting alot of use this season.
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by sangria on Mon Dec 30, 2013 7:48 am

shiver shiver shiver for alot of peeps!!

Thanks for the new blog e !    Not looking to chilly, for us in Florida.

oh and Aug...    voodoo 2 for your First!
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Dec 30, 2013 2:01 pm

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:02 pm

EURO goes nuts with snow totals

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:03 pm

Crazy

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:04 pm

Sleet in Mississippi

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:13 pm

shiver 

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:14 pm

Trend continues

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 30, 2013 10:51 pm

SREF mean snowfall ratio at 3z Friday is 20:1 from NYC-HVN-PVD-BOS



The NAM has also shifted to heavy snow also from the first system, the clipper. This will transfer energy to the low that will delvlope soon in the GOM and move up the East Coast



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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 31, 2013 4:34 am

EURO shift further out to sea in last run. That would equal less snow for the metros

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 31, 2013 5:51 pm

Next week is going to be a bitch.

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by StAugustineFL on Wed Jan 01, 2014 5:56 am

"Next week is going to be a bitch"

It's looking that way. May even get in on the cold here. Jax is talking about the coldest air of the season coming in early next week. Might have to cover plants/pipes for the first time all season.
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Wed Jan 01, 2014 10:11 am

Yep

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:19 pm

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by sangria on Fri Jan 03, 2014 12:01 pm

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:11 pm

BRUTAL COLD MONDAY: We will be in the 10-13 degree range by early Monday morning, with a north wind of 15-25 mph, creating a wind chill index as low as ten below zero. We stay below freezing all day, and some of the latest guidance hints we won’t even get out of the teens. And, the wind chill index will stay below zero much of the day.

The last time we had a high under 25 degrees in Birmingham was February 4, 1996. We will forecast a high near 20 degrees Monday.

TUESDAY: We will now forecast a low between 5 and 10 degrees at daybreak Tuesday. This will be the coldest morning for us since January 24, 2003 when our low was 7 degrees. At least the wind will be calmer. Tuesday will be sunny, but the high will be in the 20s, and we stay below freezing.

WEDNESDAY: Another bitterly cold morning with temperatures in the 10 to 15 degree range at daybreak. Then, we finally rise above freezing by Wednesday afternoon with a high in the low 40s along with a sunny sky.

James Spann



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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:12 pm

WIDESPREAD 20's for Monday night here in CFL

Put your Pickles in the bun warmer. Cover your bushes
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:14 pm

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:16 pm

Check out the snow cover



Click on link to see full size. Blog will not show the entire image

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/high_resolution/1481v1_20140103-VIIRS-Snow.png
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:19 pm

shiver 

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:23 pm

This is the craziest shit I have ever seen. Can't recall seeing WCV this low in these areas.

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:29 pm

This is about as serious as it get. A for real Super Duper Polar Vortex. Kinda like out of the movie Day after Tomorrow.





And we know that this is caused when Global Warming triggers the onset of a new Ice Age, tornadoes flatten Los Angeles, a tidal wave engulfs New York City and the entire Northern Hemisphere begins to freeze solid.
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Sat Jan 04, 2014 5:54 am

This video dedicated to GOMEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Sat Jan 04, 2014 6:06 am

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Jan 04, 2014 6:17 am

LMAO at the dive-bombing chick.
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Yet another round after next week?

Post by emcf30 on Sat Jan 04, 2014 6:21 am

After reviewing the pattern in a couple of weeks, we could very well be talking about another extreme cold wave once again. This is after NOAA put out their Temp probs that showed well above average forcast with most of the Central and Eastern US in the red.

This had been the case all last month. Infact, they showed this week as all of the Plains and Mid west at 90% above average for next week before recently flipping.

Here we go again.

Check out another Polar Vortex moving into the US. Notice the blocking that is expected to occur over Greenland. This is very important.



The Cold continues it's Southern progression



CIPS Analog Guidance



+PNA ridge with possible -NAO blocking will definately make things very very interesting in the coming days.
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by sangria on Sat Jan 04, 2014 7:47 am

damn e... you've been busy, over here!! Oh, and e slap
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by sangria on Sat Jan 04, 2014 6:19 pm

Tuesday morning....  





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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by sangria on Sat Jan 04, 2014 8:38 pm

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Severe Threat ahead of next cold snap

Post by emcf30 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 4:04 pm



AN AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST
  THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTM
  COVERAGE AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ATTENDANT TO THE EWD
  MOVEMENT OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
  THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS ON SATURDAY...AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED
  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT REACHES THE ERN SEABOARD.
  THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS
  FROM THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION NWD ACROSS THE ERN STATES.
  A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS
  IT TRACKS NEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC...WHILE A
  TRAILING COLD FRONT STEADILY ADVANCES EWD REACHING ERN NY TO THE
  DELMARVA THROUGH ERN NC TO NRN FL BY 12/00Z.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
  MOVE OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT.

  ...SRN-MID ATLANTIC STATES SWD TO NRN FL AND FL PANHANDLE...
  ELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE ERN GULF TO OFF THE SRN-MID
  ATLANTIC STATES WILL VEER TO SLY DURING DAY 1 ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE
  RETURN/MOISTENING.  THIS PROCESS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
  FIRST HALF OF DAY 2...AS SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE
  DEEPENING FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+
  INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PRE-COLD FRONT WARM SECTOR INTO
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THIS MOISTENING...MODEST LAPSE RATES
  /700-500 MB RATES AROUND 6.5 C PER KM/ AND LIMITED SURFACE HEATING
  DUE TO CLOUDINESS WILL HAMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
  INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE...AT
  BEST...FROM 500-800 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

  THE STRONG DYNAMICS ATTENDANT TO THE DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
  /500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-120 METERS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
  INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/ WILL TEND TO FAVOR LINEAR FORCING...WITH
  CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS /4 KM NSSL AND NMM/ SUGGESTING A BROKEN
  LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...THESE MODELS ALSO
  SHOW THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE
  OF THE SRN-MID ATLANTIC WHERE WATERS ARE WARMER...THOUGH AT LEAST
  ONE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND COULD SUPPORT SEMI-DISCRETE TO
  DISCRETE STORMS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EARLY EVENING.

  THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
  COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOVEMENTS WILL FAVOR THE THREAT FOR SOME
  DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO
  RISK...MAINLY WITH THE DISCRETE AND/OR SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS.

  ..PETERS.. 01/10/2014

After this minor threat moves through, things could get interesting for someone in the Southeast. Look for a decent winter event within a week. More to come (maps and ect) when I have time later on
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 5:23 pm

WOW

Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1


000
NOUS42 KMFL 101655
PNSMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-110500-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1155 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
RAINFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

FLORIDA

...PALM BEACH COUNTY...
1 WSW HYPOLUXO 22.21 800 AM 1/10 MESONET
1 SW PALM BEACH 16.03 800 AM 1/10 MESONET
LANTANA 15.04 800 AM 1/10 MESONET
1 ESE LANTANA 14.79 700 AM 1/10 COCORAHS
BOYNTON BEACH 13.13 800 AM 1/10 MESONET
1 E LANTANA 12.46 800 AM 1/10 MESONET
2 NW BOYNTON BEACH 11.00 800 AM 1/10 COCORAHS
PALM BEACH 10.75 800 AM 1/10 MESONET
1 SW PALM BEACH SHOR 9.35 800 AM 1/10 MESONET
1 NNW LAKE WORTH 8.72 800 AM 1/10 COCORAHS
1 N LAKE WORTH 8.58 800 AM 1/10 COCORAHS
LAKE WORTH 7.98 800 AM 1/10 MESONET
JUNO BEACH 7.94 800 AM 1/10 CO-OP OBSERVER
JUPITER FARMS 6.29 800 AM 1/10 MESONET
9 WNW PALM BEACH GAR 6.15 800 AM 1/10 MESONET
NORTH PALM BEACH 5.86 800 AM 1/10 MESONET

$$

KONARIK
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Post by sangria on Fri Jan 10, 2014 6:21 pm

Those were some amazing rainfall totals !
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 7:55 pm

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 7:57 pm

Ok, I have had enough blogging for the year. LOL
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by sangria on Sat Jan 11, 2014 8:56 am

Nice little storm, headed for the Pac NW  



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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Sat Jan 11, 2014 10:19 am

January 9, 2014
It's Colder? Hotter? Blame Climate Change
By Robert Babcock

When Fargo is 25 below zero, Baton Rouge 24 above, and nearly the entire nation is in the grip of a record-breaking frigid spell, one's thoughts naturally turn to global warming -- or, rather, make that climate change.

The former term -- "global warming" -- as it turned out, was too specific; to believe that global warming was a real threat required...well, that global warming actually occur. That did not happen, as the data have proven, and for once Al Gore was right: truth can be so inconvenient, because the fact that the globe failed to heat up as advertised not only swelled the ranks of doubters, but also tarnished the global warming brand. A new label was needed.

Some people claim that the phrase "climate change" better expresses the complexity of what is happening weather-wise.

But others among us believe that the purpose of replacing the old, discredited label was to keep the climate crisis pot boiling and bubbling, in order to maintain the flow of funds pouring into the coffers of environmental groups, politicians, academics, and businesses dependent on a zeitgeist of climate crisis.

And some of us believe that even more nefarious actors are at work, perpetuating the empowerment of that perfect storm of interests on the left that seek to overturn the traditional order and impose their visions of utopian conformity, via regulatory salvation from certain death by CO2. Any propagandist worth his salt will tell you: if the old narrative fails, create a new one.

So, as embarrassing as it must have been to recognize the need to do it, for true believers, dependents, and power-brokers alike, it made sense to ditch global warming and adopt climate change as the new mantra of apocalypse. For us skeptics, this lifting of the schoolmarm's skirt merely revealed what we'd always known to be true, and the reason for the switch was obvious.

Do you remember, back when the IPCC experts all called it global warming, how a withering heat wave in July would set the talking heads on TV to jabbering?
The claim may have been bogus, but the label made sense: global warming = hot. Then frost would bite us in January, and that, too, was hailed as evidence of global warming.

But even the uninformed and gullible could sense the mismatch: global warming = cold? Of course, the experts would conveniently forget they'd ever said anything about July's weather and, instead, would now tut-tut, "Well, global warming is a long-term trend" -- with the long-term result that ever more hoots and howls began rising from the herd.

When you're trying to Save the Planet, an increase in the public mockery quotient is bad for business. Add to that a growing coterie of heretical scientists -- global warming deniers all -- stirring things up. And as if that weren't bad enough, the data simply wasn't cooperating, either, as it became increasingly evident that the global temperature, rather than accelerating in high gear toward the boiling point, had really just been stuck in neutral for years. Something had to be done. Hence, like Kansas weather changing in a minute from cloudy to sunny, global warming suddenly became climate change.

What a brilliant stroke that was! If there's one constant in the history of Earth, it is climate fluctuation. A similar propensity for fluctuation exists within the politically active climate crowd in regard to terminology, as surely as Orwell invented Newspeak. So now, with climate fluctuation -- I mean, climate change -- as a red flag, anything the climate does this decade that it didn't do ten years ago can set the alarm bells ringing.

Is it colder than it was? That's climate change. Is it hotter than it was? That's climate change, too. (Duh.) And you can bet your hockey stick that when our climate continues to consistently behave inconsistently, it is mankind's fault. Or, to be more specific, it's the fault of greedy corporations, but also it's our fault in general for being addicted to fossil fuels, just as we were previously addicted to firewood.

So the science is settled -- at least insofar as nomenclature is concerned: it's called climate change, even though the threat is still acknowledged by the cognoscenti to be global warming -- specifically, man-made global warming, brought to your world, and that of your children's children's children, courtesy of modern, capitalist, fossil-fuel-powered civilization.

Want confirmation? Just ask those scientists studying climate change whose ship recently got trapped in the mysteriously disappearing/reappearing Antarctic ice cap.

Ask Al Gore, whose company made over $200 million in profit with a carbon-trading scheme.

Just ask any academic who receives grant money to study the dangers of climate change, any CEO whose company's revenue depends on creating solutions to avert climate catastrophe, any environmentalist whose organization gets more donations with each doomsday headline, or any politician who counts any of the above as constituents.

Ask a leftist power-broker.

They'll all tell you that climate change is a real threat, we're the culprits, and they've got the solutions, as surely as the wind blows and the switchgrass grows. You can trust them. After all, they're just good people with good hearts whose only goal is to Save the Planet.

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Sun Jan 12, 2014 3:38 pm


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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:25 pm

What's so interesting and RARE is the agreement in the 8-10 day period on MULTIPLE LR models.

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:27 pm



Euro weeklies (just released):

Week 2 (Jan. 20-26): precip. ~0.50"; temp.'s: 2-4 below normal NC/SC/most of GA & 4-6 below far SE GA into FL
Week 3 (Jan. 27-Feb. 2): precip. ~0.75-1"; temp.'s: 3-4 below normal NC/SC/GA & 1-3 below FL
Week 4 (Feb. 3-9): precip. ~0.75-1"; temp.'s: near normal

NAO: neutral weeks 2-3 and slightly positive week 4
AO: slightly negative week 2 and solidly negative weeks 3-4
EPO: strong negative week 2, moderate negative week 3, neutral week 4
PNA: strong positive week 2, weak positive week 3, neutral week 4

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:36 pm

Possitive snow sounding for Alabama

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 1:16 pm

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by StAugustineFL on Tue Jan 14, 2014 3:35 pm

Send some snow to St Aug.
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by sangria on Wed Jan 15, 2014 3:58 am

Here's your snow, Aug...

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by sangria on Wed Jan 15, 2014 4:43 am

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by sangria on Wed Jan 15, 2014 4:47 am

Jax NWS does not wish to grant you DOOM (from am discussion)....  

APPEARS THE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE LAGGING ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING
AND FROZEN PCP.
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:47 am

Standby for the BIG CHILL coming once again. Next week cold, the week after VERY cold.  shiver 
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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by emcf30 on Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:10 am

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:58 am

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

Post by sangria on Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:32 am

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Re: New Year Look Ahead. Whats next.

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