Watch the Gulf

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Watch the Gulf

Post by gomexwx on Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:56 am

Watch the Gulf of Mexico the next week as a surface low off the Coast of Yucatan could be the Gulf's first tropical system of 2015..

Here is a look at the system:


This system should move west followed by turn to the Northwest as it enters the Southwest Gulf of Mexico .

Wind Shear in the area is at 20kts but the shear should decrease to below the 15kts.

Tendency:


You can also see the area has some good low level convergence which will be helpful for development:


Upper level divergence is also increasing in the area over the system:



So we seem to have a bunch of ingredients for tropical soup...now lets watch and see if the Soup's on!
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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by gomexwx on Sat Jun 13, 2015 2:23 pm

Looks like the NHC now gives the area a 40% chance

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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Jun 15, 2015 6:28 am

First! Thanks Gomey. 80/80 now. Sucks on the timing. Looks like it's gonna ride the periphery of the SE ridge and go up and over the top of it. Just in time for my trip home on Friday. I'll need an ark traveling through MO and IL, lol
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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by sangria on Mon Jun 15, 2015 11:38 am

Ha! I'd bump you out of First, if I could, Aug!!

Gomey.... our first blog, of the year... WOOHOO
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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by emcf30 on Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:59 am

DOOM
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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by emcf30 on Tue Jun 16, 2015 7:04 am

StAugustineFL wrote:First!  Thanks Gomey.  80/80 now.  Sucks on the timing.  Looks like it's gonna ride the periphery of the SE ridge and go up and over the top of it.  Just in time for my trip home on Friday.  I'll need an ark traveling through MO and IL, lol

What needs to be watches is this storm has a higher than normal possibility of undergoing the "Brown Ocean Effect" with all the recent rains and flooding that has occured in the region over the past 2 months. Could actually strengthen over land. Last storm this happened to was Erin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Erin_%282007%29
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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by emcf30 on Tue Jun 16, 2015 7:05 am

Oh yea, thanks for the Blog GOMEY
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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by emcf30 on Tue Jun 16, 2015 7:06 am




This will certainly create havac for some folks

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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by emcf30 on Tue Jun 16, 2015 7:09 am

My Image button is not working uggg!!!
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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by StAugustineFL on Tue Jun 16, 2015 8:48 am

Yeah, heard about possible strengthening over land. Looks good this morning. Trying to close off an eyewall.
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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by emcf30 on Tue Jun 16, 2015 9:12 am

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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by sangria on Tue Jun 16, 2015 9:12 am

emcf30 wrote:My Image button is not working uggg!!!

Sounds like a user issue
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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by gomexwx on Tue Jun 16, 2015 9:33 am

emcf30 wrote:
My Image button is not working uggg!!!

So now we know you are a hologram...wonder what he really looks like..LMAO

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Re: Watch the Gulf

Post by sangria on Tue Jun 16, 2015 1:50 pm

Howdy Bill... Welcome to Texas



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Re: Watch the Gulf

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