CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:20 am

well some showers and rains coming into some area's of Florida..overcast here by me, no wind to speak of and no rain here so far..BBL

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by gomexwx on Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:46 am

Does rain dance..Sends largo out to paint a white arrow pointing west on his driveway and bang a drum.

When the rain starts tonight that you need to wash the pollen away...simply send me 100 bucks!

Thanks
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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:55 am

gomexwx wrote:Does rain dance..Sends largo out to paint a white arrow pointing west on his driveway and bang a drum.

When the rain starts tonight that you need to wash the pollen away...simply send me 100 bucks!

Thanks
thanks Gome sure need it here alright

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:56 am

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1119 AM EDT SUN MAR 12 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-121945-
Coastal Volusia-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20 NM to 60 NM Offshore-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line Out to 20 NM-Indian River-Inland Volusia-Martin-
Northern Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20 NM to 60 NM Offshore-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet Out To 20 NM-Seminole-
Southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20 NM to 60 NM Offshore-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet Out to 20 NM-
1119 AM EDT SUN MAR 12 2017

.NOW...through the afternoon. Moisture will continue to increase over
east central Florida as a weak frontal boundary sags southward into
the area. Weak disturbances aloft will also travel across the
peninsula into tonight contributing to the higher precipitation
chances.

Shower and isolated lightning storm chances will increase this
afternoon as the front moves into the area. Rain chances will range
from 70 percent near Lake George to 60 percent around Lake
Okeechobee. Movement will be from the southwest toward
the northeast. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

Additional details...including graphics are available online at:
http://www.weather.gov/mlb/blog

$$

TES

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:11 pm

well no rain by me yet but some good ones inland now................

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:12 pm

ok can someone delete THIS and we can start a New Florida weather blog or do I have to????

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:15 pm

FXUS62 KTBW 121858
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
258 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Seeing some decent coverage of moderate to heavy showers this
afternoon across the interior. Seen a few CG lightning strikes as
well. This activity will continue through the afternoon while
continuing to push east towards the Space Coast. Any shower activity
should be to the east of our area by late evening.

On Monday, another shortwave trough will be moving across the Deep
south while an area of low pressure develops across the central
Gulf. This low will push east during the day allowing for increased
rain chances. Latest ECMWF run remains most aggressive with PoPs and
the overall synoptic setup for precip tomorrow compared to the 12Z
GFS but despite their differences rain seems pretty likely across
the area starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing into the
evening. Because of this, have increased PoPs to likely across the
area for Monday. Could be enough instability with daytime heating to
see a few embedded thunderstorms as well during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures will be held down in the low to mid 70s across the
northwestern half of the area thanks to the expected abundant clouds
with lower 80s still forecast across the southern interior and
inland southwest counties.

.LONG TERM...
An amplified upper level flow pattern will have become established as
we kick off the long term period. Longwave ridging will exist
across the western half of the CONUS, with a strong upper trough
extending from the Gulf of Mexico up through the Great Lakes.
Surface low pressure will be in progress over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and will accelerate eastward early in the period with
unsettled weather over the Florida peninsula.

Monday night, as a potent shortwave trough rounds the base of the
larger scale cyclone over the eastern U.S., a surface low will
rapidly shift eastward across the central peninsula. This still
looks to bring a period of widespread to numerous showers to the
region. A rumble of thunder or two may also occur, but instability
appears limited at this time, so will remove wording of
thunderstorms. Given the fast moving nature of the system, rainfall
amounts generally look to range from a quarter to a half inch at
most, though locally higher amounts will be possible.

The low will move into the Atlantic, where it will deepen
considerably by sunrise Tuesday, becoming a powerful Nor`easter to
affect the New England coast. To the west of this potent cyclone,
north to northwesterly flow will allow for a rather prolonged period
of cold air advection through mid week. This will bring a period of
unusually cold and dry conditions for mid March, with temperatures
averaging around 10 to perhaps 15 degrees below normal Wednesday and
Thursday. A few areas along the Nature Coast may even see a light
freeze early Thursday.

After a couple of cool days, temperatures will gradually modify as
high pressure shifts eastward. This will allow for a gradual return
of low level moisture and temperatures rising back to near average
by the weekend.

&&

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:17 pm


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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:18 pm

NWS Tampa is saying they may increase rain chances for tomorrow,lets see what they say tomorrow morning huh...

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sun Mar 12, 2017 4:22 pm

gomexwx wrote:Does rain dance..Sends largo out to paint a white arrow pointing west on his driveway and bang a drum.

When the rain starts tonight that you need to wash the pollen away...simply send me 100 bucks!

Thanks

I'm still hoping you're right, Gomey.  Sangria, Largo and I are depending on it!

Doin' a little dance myself, cause yours doesn't seem to be working very well. Even with Largo's drumbeats. I think he skipped painting the driveway -- that could be the problem.
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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:01 am

MONDAY...NWS s increased rain chances now to 70% here JR..man we sure need the rain huh.

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:01 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
356 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today-Tuesday)...
In the mid/upper levels a deepening trough will move into the
eastern U.S. during the period. This will help develop a weak
area of low pressure in the central gulf today which will move
east northeast along the lingering boundary across northern
portions of the Florida peninsula early tonight before being
absorbed into the much stronger low taking shape along the
southeast U.S. coast. A more southerly flow will develop during
today bringing abundant moisture northward ahead of the low
pressure system. Scattered showers will be possible across the
region during the late morning and early afternoon, but the main
area of showers and a few thunderstorms will move through during
late afternoon and early tonight as the low and surface front move
across the region. Breezy northwest winds will usher in cooler
drier air late tonight and Tuesday with skies clearing as the
strong low moves up the eastern seaboard and high pressure builds
in from the midwest. High temperatures today will be near normal
with lows tonight still near to a few degrees above normal as the
cooler air will just be moving in. On Tuesday temperatures will be
several degrees below normal across the northern and central part
of the region to near normal far south.


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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:04 am

Good Monday morning folks! well just walked my dogs this early Monday morning..no rain here but very windy and you can just feel..somethings coming...good luck on the rain folks today.

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:22 am

gee this area really is getting good rains...............Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
245 AM EDT MON MAR 13 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-131000-
Coastal Volusia-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20 NM to 60 NM Offshore-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line Out to 20 NM-Indian River-Inland Volusia-Martin-
Northern Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20 NM to 60 NM Offshore-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet Out To 20 NM-Seminole-
Southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20 NM to 60 NM Offshore-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet Out to 20 NM-
245 AM EDT MON MAR 13 2017

.NOW...

...Shower bands are dropping locally heavy rain over SE Volusia and
northern Brevard Counties...

At 245 AM...Melbourne doppler radar showed a nearly stationary band
of showers had developed from Titusville and Mims northeast to Oak
Hill and Eldora...and extended well offshore into the Atlantic. Up to
1.0" to 1.5" of rain had fallen since midnight...and another inch or
so is possible within the next hour or two. If this band doesn`t show
signs of moving or weakening...an Urban Flood Advisory will be issued
for that area.


&&

Additional details...including graphics are available online at:
http://www.weather.gov/mlb/blog

$$

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:25 am


A Wind Advisory is in effect for the northeast Florida coast
where winds will be sustained 25 mph with gusts to over 35 mph.
Winds along the southeast Georgia coast will be 15 to 25 mph
with gusts to 30 to 35 mph.

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:28 am

they are saying a gulf LOW will be crossing Florida somewhere between Tampa bay and big bend I think...whenever this happens even though it may be a weak one...heed any local warnings ok..sometimes when they come ashore..they can throw off a few tornado's huh...stay safe out there.

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:33 am


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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:38 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
405 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...Showers and Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Tonight, Then Clearing
and Turning Cooler Rest of Week...

.DISCUSSION...
Near term: patchy fog forming over parts of the area early this
morning expected to become a bit more widespread as we get closer
to sunrise, but should burn off by 9 AM as warm southerly winds
kick in. A cluster of moderate to heavy showers over the Gulf
Stream about 15-20 miles offshore will remain over the waters over
the next couple of hours.

Today`s impact weather system taking shape early this morning
over the Gulf of Mexico in the form of a surface low over the
western Gulf. Strong mid/upper level shortwave trough over the
southern Plains will move east and lead to deepening of the
surface low as it moves east along a stationary front stretching
to North Florida. Ahead of the system, wind fields strengthen over
South Florida this afternoon, with deep-layered shear of 50 knots
by this evening. Do not expect much in the way of precipitation
through about midday, with the initial focus for scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms this afternoon over Southeast Florida,
particularly Broward and Palm Beach counties, where deepening SW
flow converges with SE-S flow pinned along the east coast.

Main focus of showers/thunderstorms will likely come after 6 PM
this evening in the form of a squall line or band of embedded
thunderstorms moving west/east across the peninsula. Upper jet
stream of 130+ knots over North Florida along with strengthening
wind fields down through the low levels will provide sufficient
dynamics and forcing for potentially strong to even severe
thunderstorms. Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of
damaging winds for the Southwest Florida Gulf Coast where the
threat is maximized due to slightly higher moisture and
instability compared to the rest of South Florida. However, a few
storms with gusts over 40 mph are certainly a distinct possibility
elsewhere over South Florida as the showers and storms spread
east during the late evening and overnight hours.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue across South
Florida until the passage of the cold front around daybreak Tuesday.
Early clouds and showers on Tuesday over far southern areas will
give way to clearing skies as drier and cooler slowly filters
into the area on increasing W-NW winds. The cooler temperatures
will begin to be felt Tuesday night, with temperatures dropping
into the upper 40s and 50s by daybreak Wednesday. Highs on
Wednesday will struggle to reach the 70s despite the mid-March
sunshine, and probably stay in the 60s along the Gulf coast.

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:39 am

ok enough from me lol..it seems most of the heavy weather will come tonight into early tues morning..lets see how this plays out...have a great day everyone!

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:50 am

Good morning everyone.


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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:54 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning everyone.

Good Morning Billsfan!!..interesting day ahead for us today and maybe tomorrow morning.

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:56 am


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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:59 am

it looks like Freezing temps Thurs and Friday mornings northern florida...........

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:02 am

JR we got an 80% chance for rain today, 90% overnight..fingers crossed,some good rain huh..

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:04 am

well gutters cleaned out,things that could blow around taken in..im ready for whatever this storm has to offer...and for sure I'm watching for any warnings when that gulf low comes close to coming ashore...hopefully no tornado's etc

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:10 am

so it looks like afternoon-evening is when it gets interesting for central-northern florida..............NWS TAMPA (clipped)...Scattered showers will be possible across the
region during the late morning and early afternoon, but the main
area of showers and a few thunderstorms will move through during
late afternoon and early tonight as the low and surface front move
across the region.

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by gomexwx on Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:12 am

LargoFL wrote:well gutters cleaned out,things that could blow around taken in..im ready for whatever this storm has to offer...and for sure I'm watching for any warnings when that gulf low comes close to coming ashore...hopefully no tornado's etc

No worry Largo, I made sure I didn't slip and throw a tornado move in my rain dance...
rain is all you get!!! Maybe a rumble or two of thunder...lol

nader
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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by JRnOldsmar on Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:24 am

Hopefully, that WPC 5-day Precip is correct.  That's 0.50 - 0.75 for us Largo.  A few sprinkles came thru NW.Hillsborough just a bit ago, and looks like some more light stuff heading our way.
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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by JRnOldsmar on Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:35 am

Looking at that SE Radar Loop, it looks like NE Ark could have gotten some thundersnow this a.m.
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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:40 am

gomexwx wrote:
LargoFL wrote:well gutters cleaned out,things that could blow around taken in..im ready for whatever this storm has to offer...and for sure I'm watching for any warnings when that gulf low comes close to coming ashore...hopefully no tornado's etc

No worry Largo, I made sure I didn't slip and throw a tornado move in my rain dance...
rain is all you get!!! Maybe a rumble or two of thunder...lol

nader
LOL thanks Gome...tornado's we don't need huh LOL

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:41 am

yes showers and a few storms out in the gulf heading this way soon......

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:51 am

clipped from Tampa NWS 10 24 am update.................... A line of thunderstorms
will likely surge across the state from late this afternoon
through the overnight hours, with the potential for some
strong/locally damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.
Conditions should dry out quickly from northwest to
southeast as a dry and cool post frontal airmass moves into
the region.

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:54 am

ok so there may be some strong damaging wind gusts when the strong line of storms comes ashore here this afternoon..glad I took in things that could blow around....sure can use its heavy rainfall here..wash this darn oak pollen away whew..its really bad this year. cough cough sneeze sneeze lol

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:57 am

no word from Scott..Haven't seen any posts from him either over in WU..maybe he gave up like a lot did too...and from the looks of Doc's blog..its turning into a flame group...real glad we have this nice one to post in about OUR weather huh

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:57 am

Billsfan how is the weather down your way today so far?

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:28 am

gee we sure could use all that rain down here huh...maybe later today?....

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:33 am

well chilly and breezy here by my area..no rain yet by me...........

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:33 am


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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 12:21 pm

Good afternoon.  The HRRR is bringing 1-2" from Tampa northward for virtually the entire northern half of the state.  Fingers crossed.

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:30 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.  The HRRR is bringing 1-2" from Tampa northward for virtually the entire northern half of the state.  Fingers crossed.

boy we sure need it here AUG just a few sprinkles by me so far.

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:31 pm

rains getting closer to coast now..hopefully good rains later today...

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:36 pm

GFS Model has the Gulf Low coming ashore after midnight tonight.......

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:40 pm

NWS Melbourne (clip)...........Increasing wind fields will pose a small risk of strong storms as
they push onshore the Gulf coast after sunset. While the storms
should weaken as they push into EC FL, cannot rule out an isolated
strong storm from Osceola county northward.

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by sangria on Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:01 pm

Gomey's dance sucks!  As usual, I don't even get the sprinkles.....  

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:06 pm

sangria wrote:Gomey's dance sucks!  As usual, I don't even get the sprinkles.....  


Patience grasshopper. The steadier rains aren't to be here until later in the afternoon into the night.
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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by sangria on Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:09 pm

Hiya Aug!  You know that loop is standard fair for me though....

PWS link to live image:  New Port Richey PWS live Webcam
PWS webcam pic still image:

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by sangria on Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:28 pm

Brad Panovich's latest vlog from this morning....

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:32 pm

it looks like Tampa Bay area is in the Marginal risk..stay alert folks thru this evening....

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:34 pm


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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:36 pm

(possibly a Tornado tonight).............NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado, may occur across the
central Florida this evening into the overnight.

...Southeast Atlantic states through tonight...
Pattern amplification is underway downstream from a closed mid-upper
high over CA, as a pronounced shortwave trough digs southeastward
toward the lower MS Valley this evening and the southeast Atlantic
coast by early Tuesday. Initial surface cyclogenesis will occur
today across the north/northeast Gulf of Mexico along a stalled
front, and cross central/north FL by early tonight.

The front across central/north FL will be reinforced by
rain/differential heating this afternoon, with modest low-level
moistening expected along and south of the cyclone track. An
increase in low-midlevel vertical shear (associated with low-level
warm advection and a lead speed max over the Gulf) will accompany
the cyclone across FL, though modest midlevel lapse rates will tend
to limit buoyancy. Thus, clusters of storms with some embedded
supercell/bow risk will spread inland from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and pose a risk for isolated damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado this evening into tonight across central FL.

Otherwise, the majority of the near-surface-based convection will
likely form near or just off the Outer Banks of NC tonight, where
the more unstable warm sector will reside in proximity to the Gulf
Stream. Some elevated convection will be possible inland in the
zone of weak midlevel buoyancy and strong forcing for ascent tonight
and early Tuesday.

..Thompson/Kerr.. 03/13/2017


LargoFL

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Re: CLOSED BLOG Florida Weather

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