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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Good afternoon, Looking at today's weather map we have a dangerous situation that could take place in the form of Severe Thunderstorms and a possible Tornado outbreak.
You can see this area building in central Texas. There is a lot of shear in the atmosphere and that instability should expand eastward with the progression of the system.
Notice the low pressure systems they will combine eventually. This situation only gets worse by the hour through Sunday. In the progression of forecast maps you will notice as many as three Low's, this situation wont get better until all three have combined in to one low on Monday.
This situation could mean trouble for many states and could spread as far East as the Florida Panhandle before it moderates SO KEEP YOUR EYE'S TO THE SKY'S
The Moon is in a waxing crescent...
I took this image last night just got it processed
You can see this area building in central Texas. There is a lot of shear in the atmosphere and that instability should expand eastward with the progression of the system.
Notice the low pressure systems they will combine eventually. This situation only gets worse by the hour through Sunday. In the progression of forecast maps you will notice as many as three Low's, this situation wont get better until all three have combined in to one low on Monday.
This situation could mean trouble for many states and could spread as far East as the Florida Panhandle before it moderates SO KEEP YOUR EYE'S TO THE SKY'S
The Moon is in a waxing crescent...
I took this image last night just got it processed
gomexwx- Posts : 641
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Thanks for the shiny new blog Gomey.....
That is a wonderful pic you took! Did you end up using that converter that we looked at earlier this morning?
That is a wonderful pic you took! Did you end up using that converter that we looked at earlier this morning?
sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Thank you, Gomey. Good moonshot.
JRnOldsmar- Posts : 828
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
sangria wrote:Thanks for the shiny new blog Gomey.....
That is a wonderful pic you took! Did you end up using that converter that we looked at earlier this morning?
Not yet....may not have to if I can find my old you tube account..
still processing images...I took several video's of a 1000 frames or more..
gomexwx- Posts : 641
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
That second link didn't require Youtube... it was a full converter
sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Larry Cosgrove posted about the upcoming event. Central LA looks to get pounded... I'll share his post and pics here.
sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Glad you were able to get the moon shot uploaded gomey. It's a beauty.
Today is the calm before the storm.
Today is the calm before the storm.
StAugustineFL- Posts : 2231
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Nice day here cobalt blue sky...a bit warm 88
San malwarebytes wont let me download that link...says hidden malware
San malwarebytes wont let me download that link...says hidden malware
gomexwx- Posts : 641
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Damn! They said it was ad and spyware free.
In that case, just go make some.....
STRAWBERRY MOONSHINE!
In that case, just go make some.....
STRAWBERRY MOONSHINE!
sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
I got some "Moonshine" for ya!:
gomexwx- Posts : 641
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Sorry bud..... "This video is unavailable"
sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
oh no...I see it
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sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
bummer..have no idea
gomexwx- Posts : 641
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
I do have a livestream youtube video that is working!!
Have y'all been hearing about April, the Giraffe? Well, supposedly she may be having contractions and ready to drop the little one after a month of this live stream... lol
Have y'all been hearing about April, the Giraffe? Well, supposedly she may be having contractions and ready to drop the little one after a month of this live stream... lol
sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
"The calf will weigh around 150lb and will be about 6' tall at birth.
The front hooves will come out first followed by the snout"
Somewhere else I read that it takes approx 1 hour for the delivery from the time the first hooves show, and mom delivers standing up. The drop to the ground is what stimulates the baby to breath.....
The front hooves will come out first followed by the snout"
Somewhere else I read that it takes approx 1 hour for the delivery from the time the first hooves show, and mom delivers standing up. The drop to the ground is what stimulates the baby to breath.....
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gomexwx- Posts : 641
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
That is very cool Gomey!!! I can't believe the magnification on that. I'll try putting it in here....
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
thanks...I must have embedosis
gomexwx- Posts : 641
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Video received here, but not the first time here. Love it.
Gotta check out the giraffe..... Not so much for the birth, per se, but the drop providing impetus for life and the first moments there after.....
Gotta check out the giraffe..... Not so much for the birth, per se, but the drop providing impetus for life and the first moments there after.....
JRnOldsmar- Posts : 828
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
sangria wrote:I do have a livestream youtube video that is working!!
Have y'all been hearing about April, the Giraffe? Well, supposedly she may be having contractions and ready to drop the little one after a month of this live stream... lol
Absolutely captivating! I think I'll just hope for highlights after the fact.
JRnOldsmar- Posts : 828
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Hey Gomey, I just read this on Brad Panovich's FB page....
"Great views of the Moon, Mars & Mercury in the western sky right after sunset which is 7:45 pm EDT"
I don't know if you can see this vid, but it shows the movement....
Brad Panovich Video
"Great views of the Moon, Mars & Mercury in the western sky right after sunset which is 7:45 pm EDT"
I don't know if you can see this vid, but it shows the movement....
Brad Panovich Video
Last edited by sangria on Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
JRnOldsmar wrote:
Absolutely captivating! I think I'll just hope for highlights after the fact.
LOL JR
Some folks have been watching that live stream for a month! I pop in every day just to see what the status is..
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Sweet video gomey. If you get bored you can play a game of "count the craters"
StAugustineFL- Posts : 2231
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
I see on the SPC page the greatest threat for today has shifted a tad north and east. And gomey is now upgraded to enhanced for tomorrow. Gonna see if Forbes changed his TORCON numbers.
Edit: He hasn't posted since yesterday morning on his Facebook page.
Edit: He hasn't posted since yesterday morning on his Facebook page.
StAugustineFL- Posts : 2231
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Dr. Forbes has issued new TORCON numbers....
TODAY 4/2
Severe thunderstorms and tornado outbreak and heavy rain in east TX, LA, south AR, MS. TORCON - 8 east-central TX, north and central LA; 7 west MS; 6 upper coastal TX, south LA; 5 east MS tonight; 4 rest of southeast TX; 3 south AR; 2 north-central TX.
MONDAY 4/3
Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak continues with locally heavy rain in central and east LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, FL panhandle, southwest NC. TORCON - 6 south MS, south AL, FL panhandle; 5 north MS, north AL, GA; 4 SC, southwest NC. A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms in south and east-central MO, central and south IL, TN, west KY, and overnight in NC, VA. TORCON - 2
TUESDAY 4/4
The severe threat from the Sunday-Monday system will probably have cleared the East Coast, but a surface low from the next system brings isolated severe thunderstorms to east OK, west AR, extreme northeast TX. TORCON - 3. A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms overnight in central AR, south and central MO. TORCON - 2
WEDNESDAY 4/5
Scattered severe thunderstorms in extreme southeast LA, southeast MS, AL, GA, SC, FL panhandle, NC , middle and east TN, central and east KY, south and central IN, OH, southwest WV, southwest VA. TORCON - 4 GA, SC; 3 NC, FL panhandle, AL, IN, OH; 2 rest of area
THURSDAY 4/6
Computer models differ in whether or not the severe threat will have cleared the East Coast, so I'll go with a chance of severe thunderstorms in the FL peninsula and east FL panhandle, southeast GA, east SC, east NC, east half VA, central and east MD, DE, southeast PA, south NJ. TORCON - 2 or less for now
FRIDAY 4/7
Probably no severe thunderstorms. TORCON - near zero
TODAY 4/2
Severe thunderstorms and tornado outbreak and heavy rain in east TX, LA, south AR, MS. TORCON - 8 east-central TX, north and central LA; 7 west MS; 6 upper coastal TX, south LA; 5 east MS tonight; 4 rest of southeast TX; 3 south AR; 2 north-central TX.
MONDAY 4/3
Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak continues with locally heavy rain in central and east LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, FL panhandle, southwest NC. TORCON - 6 south MS, south AL, FL panhandle; 5 north MS, north AL, GA; 4 SC, southwest NC. A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms in south and east-central MO, central and south IL, TN, west KY, and overnight in NC, VA. TORCON - 2
TUESDAY 4/4
The severe threat from the Sunday-Monday system will probably have cleared the East Coast, but a surface low from the next system brings isolated severe thunderstorms to east OK, west AR, extreme northeast TX. TORCON - 3. A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms overnight in central AR, south and central MO. TORCON - 2
WEDNESDAY 4/5
Scattered severe thunderstorms in extreme southeast LA, southeast MS, AL, GA, SC, FL panhandle, NC , middle and east TN, central and east KY, south and central IN, OH, southwest WV, southwest VA. TORCON - 4 GA, SC; 3 NC, FL panhandle, AL, IN, OH; 2 rest of area
THURSDAY 4/6
Computer models differ in whether or not the severe threat will have cleared the East Coast, so I'll go with a chance of severe thunderstorms in the FL peninsula and east FL panhandle, southeast GA, east SC, east NC, east half VA, central and east MD, DE, southeast PA, south NJ. TORCON - 2 or less for now
FRIDAY 4/7
Probably no severe thunderstorms. TORCON - near zero
sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
is that the NOLA version of absolute doom?
all your maps end at the Ms /Al line...
all your maps end at the Ms /Al line...
gomexwx- Posts : 641
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
LOL Gomey..... just for you, and it's Mobile!!
sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
This is not looking good....
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Northern Louisiana
West-central Mississippi
East Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
900 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...A dangerous combination of parameters suggests that
tornadoes will occur over parts of east TX, northern and central LA,
and eastern MS this afternoon and evening. Strong tornadoes are a
concern.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 85 miles west of Fort Polk LA to 65
miles northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.
...Hart
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Northern Louisiana
West-central Mississippi
East Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
900 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...A dangerous combination of parameters suggests that
tornadoes will occur over parts of east TX, northern and central LA,
and eastern MS this afternoon and evening. Strong tornadoes are a
concern.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 85 miles west of Fort Polk LA to 65
miles northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.
...Hart
sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Hmmm, not sure about this. Typically the squall line has spin-ups. I would be more closely watching the convection to the east of it for something more significant. We shall see. Dinner bells are ringing.
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Last edited by sangria on Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:55 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Apr 2, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 2 19:59:08 UTC 2017
Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
The SPC is forecasting ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
SPC Updated Day 1 Convective Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
COAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms capable of significant tornadoes,
severe wind, and severe hail will spread from the Sabine river
valley toward the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. The
greatest risk for tornadoes will exist from across Louisiana into
Mississippi this afternoon through tonight.
...East Texas into Louisiana and western Mississippi...
Storms continue to evolve across the area, with the most intense
cells near the warm front over central LA, and along and just ahead
of the cold front/outflow boundary over far eastern TX. South of
these boundaries, the air mass is very moist and unstable with gusty
southeasterly winds allowing for a gradual northward shift in the
greater instability across LA and into southwest MS. Shear profiles
strongly favor supercells along with tornadoes, with effective SRH
on the order of 400-600 m2/s2 observed on area VAD wind profiles.
The area will continue to experience a severe threat for many more
hours until the cold front moves through from the west. While only a
few of the numerous storms are currently severe, the environment
will remain quite favorable and further intensification of storms is
expected throughout the afternoon and into the evening. For more
information see MCD 403, 404 and 405.
..Jewell.. 04/02/2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017/
...Portions of east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through
tonight...
A long-lived thunderstorm cluster that crossed central Texas through
the overnight/morning hours is losing organization as it is
advancing into east Texas. Convection continues to form ahead of the
remnant outflow boundary related to the cluster -- from parts of the
Upper TX Coast through the lower Sabine Valley region within a
warm-advection plume. This plume of warm advection is associated
with an amplifying midlevel shortwave trough, whose accompanying
midlevel speed maximum is emerging over south Texas. As the
shortwave trough continues to advance eastward, the low-level mass
response will facilitate poleward return of rich boundary-layer
moisture -- e.g., 15 g/kg mean mixing ratio per Lake Charles 12Z
observed sounding. As such, an expansive warm sector associated with
MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg will become established through the
afternoon from the western/central Gulf Coast northward to a
precipitation-reinforced warm frontal zone forecast to extend from
part of east-central TX eastward across northern Louisiana.
With open-warm-sector convective development now becoming apparent
ahead of the remnants of the convective cluster, it is expected that
this activity will mature as it interacts with the
northward-advancing warm frontal zone. This is where effective SRH
around 300-400 m2/s2 amid strong deep shear and increasing buoyancy
will exist. Given increasing confidence in semi-discrete
supercells/supercell clusters interacting with this warm frontal
zone around peak heating, confidence has increased in greater
tornado potential -- including significant tornadoes -- across the
now-upgraded High Risk area. The significant-tornado potential will
spread toward the lower Mississippi Valley into the evening hours.
Into the evening and overnight hours tonight, a band of warm
advection/confluence will facilitate the development of a
pre-frontal squall line that will advance eastward across parts of
LA/MS and far southern AR. In addition to the potential for
extensive wind damage, meso-vortices and embedded supercells capable
of producing tornadoes are expected to spread eastward through the
lower Mississippi Valley into the overnight hours. Increased
confidence in this scenario warrants eastward extension of the
Moderate Risk area.
Updated: Sun Apr 2 19:59:08 UTC 2017
Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
The SPC is forecasting ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
SPC Updated Day 1 Convective Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
COAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms capable of significant tornadoes,
severe wind, and severe hail will spread from the Sabine river
valley toward the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. The
greatest risk for tornadoes will exist from across Louisiana into
Mississippi this afternoon through tonight.
...East Texas into Louisiana and western Mississippi...
Storms continue to evolve across the area, with the most intense
cells near the warm front over central LA, and along and just ahead
of the cold front/outflow boundary over far eastern TX. South of
these boundaries, the air mass is very moist and unstable with gusty
southeasterly winds allowing for a gradual northward shift in the
greater instability across LA and into southwest MS. Shear profiles
strongly favor supercells along with tornadoes, with effective SRH
on the order of 400-600 m2/s2 observed on area VAD wind profiles.
The area will continue to experience a severe threat for many more
hours until the cold front moves through from the west. While only a
few of the numerous storms are currently severe, the environment
will remain quite favorable and further intensification of storms is
expected throughout the afternoon and into the evening. For more
information see MCD 403, 404 and 405.
..Jewell.. 04/02/2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017/
...Portions of east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through
tonight...
A long-lived thunderstorm cluster that crossed central Texas through
the overnight/morning hours is losing organization as it is
advancing into east Texas. Convection continues to form ahead of the
remnant outflow boundary related to the cluster -- from parts of the
Upper TX Coast through the lower Sabine Valley region within a
warm-advection plume. This plume of warm advection is associated
with an amplifying midlevel shortwave trough, whose accompanying
midlevel speed maximum is emerging over south Texas. As the
shortwave trough continues to advance eastward, the low-level mass
response will facilitate poleward return of rich boundary-layer
moisture -- e.g., 15 g/kg mean mixing ratio per Lake Charles 12Z
observed sounding. As such, an expansive warm sector associated with
MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg will become established through the
afternoon from the western/central Gulf Coast northward to a
precipitation-reinforced warm frontal zone forecast to extend from
part of east-central TX eastward across northern Louisiana.
With open-warm-sector convective development now becoming apparent
ahead of the remnants of the convective cluster, it is expected that
this activity will mature as it interacts with the
northward-advancing warm frontal zone. This is where effective SRH
around 300-400 m2/s2 amid strong deep shear and increasing buoyancy
will exist. Given increasing confidence in semi-discrete
supercells/supercell clusters interacting with this warm frontal
zone around peak heating, confidence has increased in greater
tornado potential -- including significant tornadoes -- across the
now-upgraded High Risk area. The significant-tornado potential will
spread toward the lower Mississippi Valley into the evening hours.
Into the evening and overnight hours tonight, a band of warm
advection/confluence will facilitate the development of a
pre-frontal squall line that will advance eastward across parts of
LA/MS and far southern AR. In addition to the potential for
extensive wind damage, meso-vortices and embedded supercells capable
of producing tornadoes are expected to spread eastward through the
lower Mississippi Valley into the overnight hours. Increased
confidence in this scenario warrants eastward extension of the
Moderate Risk area.
Last edited by sangria on Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:54 pm; edited 1 time in total
sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
I have clouds....
gomexwx- Posts : 641
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
You are going to have more than clouds methinks..... unless you get lucky
sangria- Admin
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Good luck up there, Gomey. You're on deck this morning.
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
I wish I was on my deck having coffee,instead I'm inside dodging lightning bolts
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Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast
Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Current conditions:
Severe Thunderstorm in progress
Temp 60
Humidity:97%
dew point: 60
wind:NNE at 17mph
Barometer:29.85 digital 29.87 analog
rainfall :1.03 and rising
Severe Thunderstorm in progress
Temp 60
Humidity:97%
dew point: 60
wind:NNE at 17mph
Barometer:29.85 digital 29.87 analog
rainfall :1.03 and rising
gomexwx- Posts : 641
Reputation : 63
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast
Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
scratch the rain...I got a hail storm in progress
gomexwx- Posts : 641
Reputation : 63
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast
Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Total rainfall for the event so far:
3.41"
and it's still raining
3.41"
and it's still raining
gomexwx- Posts : 641
Reputation : 63
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast
gomexwx- Posts : 641
Reputation : 63
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast
Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
looks like today's severe weather event has ended.
Current Conditions: Cloudy with an occasional glimpse of Sol.
Temp: 60f
Humidity: 97%
Dew Point: 59
Winds: NNW 5mph
Barometer 29.80 in. digital, 29.83 Analog falling trend
Precipitation: 3.64
Afternoon Forecast: Clearing with telescope sky's for tonight:)
Current Conditions: Cloudy with an occasional glimpse of Sol.
Temp: 60f
Humidity: 97%
Dew Point: 59
Winds: NNW 5mph
Barometer 29.80 in. digital, 29.83 Analog falling trend
Precipitation: 3.64
Afternoon Forecast: Clearing with telescope sky's for tonight:)
gomexwx- Posts : 641
Reputation : 63
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast
Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Any damage in your area Gomey?
sangria- Admin
- Posts : 2345
Reputation : 55
Join date : 2012-07-16
Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
here is a link from our local newssangria wrote:Any damage in your area Gomey?
yes there was damage.
http://wkrg.com/2017/04/03/hail-flooding-and-rain-mark-mobile-county-through-mondays-storms/
There is a mobile Fireman injured also responding to a house fore caused by lightning.
gomexwx- Posts : 641
Reputation : 63
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast
Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Semmes, AL resident pelted in head by quarter sized hail. Film at 11.
StAugustineFL- Posts : 2231
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2012-07-17
Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Wonder if the line will make it over to you Aug...
sangria- Admin
- Posts : 2345
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Join date : 2012-07-16
Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
sangria wrote:Wonder if the line will make it over to you Aug...
I haven't been able to check up on latest HRRR guidance but if it does I believe it'll have weakened significantly.
StAugustineFL- Posts : 2231
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2012-07-17
Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
Current Day 1 Outlook
1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook
Forecaster: Cohen
Issued: 05/1629Z
Valid: 05/1630Z - 06/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: High Risk
1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook
Forecaster: Cohen
Issued: 05/1629Z
Valid: 05/1630Z - 06/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: High Risk
JRnOldsmar- Posts : 828
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL
Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
That is not looking good up in GA/SC
sangria- Admin
- Posts : 2345
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Join date : 2012-07-16
Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
sangria wrote:That is not looking good up in GA/SC
Yup. Sis outside of Charleston has been warned to keep an eye on things.
JRnOldsmar- Posts : 828
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL
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