SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Sat Apr 01, 2017 2:28 pm

Good afternoon, Looking at today's weather map we have a dangerous situation that could take place in the form of Severe Thunderstorms and a possible Tornado outbreak.
You can see this area building in central Texas. There is a lot of shear in the atmosphere and that instability should expand eastward with the progression of the system.

Notice the low pressure systems they will combine eventually. This situation only gets worse by the hour through Sunday. In the progression of forecast maps you will notice as many as three Low's, this situation wont get better until all three have combined in to one low on Monday.



This situation could mean trouble for many states and could spread as far East as the Florida Panhandle before it moderates SO KEEP YOUR EYE'S TO THE SKY'S

The Moon is in a waxing crescent...
I took this image last night just got it processed
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:05 pm

Thanks for the shiny new blog Gomey.....

That is a wonderful pic you took! Did you end up using that converter that we looked at earlier this morning?
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:09 pm

Thank you, Gomey. Good moonshot.
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:11 pm

sangria wrote:Thanks for the shiny new blog Gomey.....

That is a wonderful pic you took!  Did you end up using that converter that we looked at earlier this morning?

Not yet....may not have to if I can find my old you tube account..
still processing images...I took several video's of a 1000 frames or more..
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:16 pm

That second link didn't require Youtube... it was a full converter
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:20 pm

Larry Cosgrove posted about the upcoming event. Central LA looks to get pounded... I'll share his post and pics here.













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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:32 pm

Glad you were able to get the moon shot uploaded gomey. It's a beauty.

Today is the calm before the storm.
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:01 pm

Nice day here cobalt blue sky...a bit warm 88
San malwarebytes wont let me download that link...says hidden malware

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:10 pm

Damn!  They said it was ad and spyware free.  

In that case, just go make some.....


STRAWBERRY MOONSHINE!

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:34 pm

I got some "Moonshine" for ya!:
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:36 pm

Sorry bud..... "This video is unavailable"
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:38 pm

oh no...I see it

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:40 pm

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:41 pm

bummer..have no idea

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:43 pm

I do have a livestream youtube video that is working!!

Have y'all been hearing about April, the Giraffe?  Well, supposedly she may be having contractions and ready to drop the little one after a month of this live stream... lol

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:45 pm

"The calf will weigh around 150lb and will be about 6' tall at birth.
The front hooves will come out first followed by the snout"

Somewhere else I read that it takes approx 1 hour for the delivery from the time the first hooves show, and mom delivers standing up. The drop to the ground is what stimulates the baby to breath.....
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:46 pm

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:51 pm

That is very cool Gomey!!!   I can't believe the magnification on that. I'll try putting it in here....

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Sat Apr 01, 2017 5:00 pm

thanks...I must have embedosis
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:50 pm

Video received here, but not the first time here. Love it.

Gotta check out the giraffe..... Not so much for the birth, per se, but the drop providing impetus for life and the first moments there after.....
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:05 pm

sangria wrote:I do have a livestream youtube video that is working!!

Have y'all been hearing about April, the Giraffe?  Well, supposedly she may be having contractions and ready to drop the little one after a month of this live stream... lol


Absolutely captivating! I think I'll just hope for highlights after the fact.
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:23 pm

Hey Gomey, I just read this on Brad Panovich's FB page....

"Great views of the Moon, Mars & Mercury in the western sky right after sunset which is 7:45 pm EDT"

I don't know if you can see this vid, but it shows the movement....

Brad Panovich Video


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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:25 pm

JRnOldsmar wrote:

Absolutely captivating!  I think I'll just hope for highlights after the fact.

LOL JR

Some folks have been watching that live stream for a month! I pop in every day just to see what the status is..

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Apr 02, 2017 8:19 am

Sweet video gomey. If you get bored you can play a game of "count the craters"
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Apr 02, 2017 8:55 am

I see on the SPC page the greatest threat for today has shifted a tad north and east.  And gomey is now upgraded to enhanced for tomorrow.  Gonna see if Forbes changed his TORCON numbers.

Edit: He hasn't posted since yesterday morning on his Facebook page.
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sun Apr 02, 2017 3:04 pm

Dr. Forbes has issued new TORCON numbers....

TODAY 4/2
Severe thunderstorms and tornado outbreak and heavy rain in east TX, LA, south AR, MS. TORCON - 8 east-central TX, north and central LA; 7 west MS; 6 upper coastal TX, south LA; 5 east MS tonight; 4 rest of southeast TX; 3 south AR; 2 north-central TX.




MONDAY 4/3
Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak continues with locally heavy rain in central and east LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, FL panhandle, southwest NC. TORCON - 6 south MS, south AL, FL panhandle; 5 north MS, north AL, GA; 4 SC, southwest NC. A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms in south and east-central MO, central and south IL, TN, west KY, and overnight in NC, VA. TORCON - 2





TUESDAY 4/4
The severe threat from the Sunday-Monday system will probably have cleared the East Coast, but a surface low from the next system brings isolated severe thunderstorms to east OK, west AR, extreme northeast TX. TORCON - 3. A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms overnight in central AR, south and central MO. TORCON - 2





WEDNESDAY 4/5
Scattered severe thunderstorms in extreme southeast LA, southeast MS, AL, GA, SC, FL panhandle, NC , middle and east TN, central and east KY, south and central IN, OH, southwest WV, southwest VA. TORCON - 4 GA, SC; 3 NC, FL panhandle, AL, IN, OH; 2 rest of area




THURSDAY 4/6
Computer models differ in whether or not the severe threat will have cleared the East Coast, so I'll go with a chance of severe thunderstorms in the FL peninsula and east FL panhandle, southeast GA, east SC, east NC, east half VA, central and east MD, DE, southeast PA, south NJ. TORCON - 2 or less for now




FRIDAY 4/7
Probably no severe thunderstorms. TORCON - near zero
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Sun Apr 02, 2017 3:26 pm

is that the NOLA version of absolute doom?
all your maps end at the Ms /Al line... lmao

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sun Apr 02, 2017 3:49 pm

LOL Gomey.....  just for you, and it's Mobile!!

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:01 pm

This is not looking good....  


Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
  SEL0

  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  Tornado Watch Number 110
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  135 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

  The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

  * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Central and Northern Louisiana
    West-central Mississippi
    East Texas

  * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
    900 PM CDT.

  ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

  * Primary threats include...
    Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
    Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
      inches in diameter likely
    Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

  SUMMARY...A dangerous combination of parameters suggests that
  tornadoes will occur over parts of east TX, northern and central LA,
  and eastern MS this afternoon and evening.  Strong tornadoes are a
  concern.

  The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
  north and south of a line from 85 miles west of Fort Polk LA to 65
  miles northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch
  see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

  REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
  tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
  area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
  threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
  and possible warnings.

  &&

  OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...

  AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
  surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
  gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
  storm motion vector 23035.

  ...Hart
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:04 pm

Click image for direct link.....

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:06 pm

Hmmm, not sure about this. Typically the squall line has spin-ups. I would be more closely watching the convection to the east of it for something more significant. We shall see. Dinner bells are ringing.
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:13 pm

PSU Regional Radar...   I don't know, Aug.  I'm seeing a lot of cells blowing up out in front of the line.  

Still image is static...click on image for live real time loop



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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:49 pm

Apr 2, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 2 19:59:08 UTC 2017

Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
The SPC is forecasting ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

SPC Updated Day 1 Convective Outlook




Day 1 Convective Outlook  
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  0259 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

  Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

  ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
  NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

  ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
  LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...

  ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE
  RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

  ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
  COAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

  ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
  SLIGHT RISK AREA...

  ...SUMMARY...
  Widespread severe thunderstorms capable of significant tornadoes,
  severe wind, and severe hail will spread from the Sabine river
  valley toward the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. The
  greatest risk for tornadoes will exist from across Louisiana into
  Mississippi this afternoon through tonight.

  ...East Texas into Louisiana and western Mississippi...
  Storms continue to evolve across the area, with the most intense
  cells near the warm front over central LA, and along and just ahead
  of the cold front/outflow boundary over far eastern TX. South of
  these boundaries, the air mass is very moist and unstable with gusty
  southeasterly winds allowing for a gradual northward shift in the
  greater instability across LA and into southwest MS. Shear profiles
  strongly favor supercells along with tornadoes, with effective SRH
  on the order of 400-600 m2/s2 observed on area VAD wind profiles.
  The area will continue to experience a severe threat for many more
  hours until the cold front moves through from the west. While only a
  few of the numerous storms are currently severe, the environment
  will remain quite favorable and further intensification of storms is
  expected throughout the afternoon and into the evening.  For more
  information see MCD 403, 404 and 405.

  ..Jewell.. 04/02/2017

  .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017/

  ...Portions of east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through
  tonight...
  A long-lived thunderstorm cluster that crossed central Texas through
  the overnight/morning hours is losing organization as it is
  advancing into east Texas. Convection continues to form ahead of the
  remnant outflow boundary related to the cluster -- from parts of the
  Upper TX Coast through the lower Sabine Valley region within a
  warm-advection plume. This plume of warm advection is associated
  with an amplifying midlevel shortwave trough, whose accompanying
  midlevel speed maximum is emerging over south Texas. As the
  shortwave trough continues to advance eastward, the low-level mass
  response will facilitate poleward return of rich boundary-layer
  moisture -- e.g., 15 g/kg mean mixing ratio per Lake Charles 12Z
  observed sounding. As such, an expansive warm sector associated with
  MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg will become established through the
  afternoon from the western/central Gulf Coast northward to a
  precipitation-reinforced warm frontal zone forecast to extend from
  part of east-central TX eastward across northern Louisiana.

  With open-warm-sector convective development now becoming apparent
  ahead of the remnants of the convective cluster, it is expected that
  this activity will mature as it interacts with the
  northward-advancing warm frontal zone. This is where effective SRH
  around 300-400 m2/s2 amid strong deep shear and increasing buoyancy
  will exist. Given increasing confidence in semi-discrete
  supercells/supercell clusters interacting with this warm frontal
  zone around peak heating, confidence has increased in greater
  tornado potential -- including significant tornadoes -- across the
  now-upgraded High Risk area. The significant-tornado potential will
  spread toward the lower Mississippi Valley into the evening hours.

  Into the evening and overnight hours tonight, a band of warm
  advection/confluence will facilitate the development of a
  pre-frontal squall line that will advance eastward across parts of
  LA/MS and far southern AR. In addition to the potential for
  extensive wind damage, meso-vortices and embedded supercells capable
  of producing tornadoes are expected to spread eastward through the
  lower Mississippi Valley into the overnight hours. Increased
  confidence in this scenario warrants eastward extension of the
  Moderate Risk area.


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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:53 pm

I have clouds....

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:56 pm

You are going to have more than clouds methinks..... unless you get lucky
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by JRnOldsmar on Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:28 am

Good luck up there, Gomey. You're on deck this morning.
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:24 am

I wish I was on my deck having coffee,instead I'm inside dodging lightning bolts

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:34 am

Current conditions:
Severe Thunderstorm in progress
Temp 60
Humidity:97%
dew point: 60
wind:NNE at 17mph
Barometer:29.85 digital 29.87 analog
rainfall :1.03 and rising

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:40 am

scratch the rain...I got a hail storm in progress

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:03 am

Total rainfall for the event so far:
3.41"
and it's still raining

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:15 am

nader nader

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:15 pm

looks like today's severe weather event has ended.
Current Conditions: Cloudy with an occasional glimpse of  Sol.
Temp: 60f
Humidity: 97%
Dew Point: 59
Winds: NNW 5mph
Barometer 29.80 in. digital, 29.83 Analog falling trend
Precipitation: 3.64
 
Afternoon Forecast: Clearing with telescope sky's for tonight:)
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:57 pm

Any damage in your area Gomey?
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by gomexwx on Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:28 pm

sangria wrote:Any damage in your area Gomey?
here is a link from our local news
yes there was damage.
http://wkrg.com/2017/04/03/hail-flooding-and-rain-mark-mobile-county-through-mondays-storms/

There is a mobile Fireman injured also responding to a house fore caused by lightning.
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:47 pm

Semmes, AL resident pelted in head by quarter sized hail. Film at 11.
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:01 pm

Wonder if the line will make it over to you Aug...



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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:15 pm

sangria wrote:Wonder if the line will make it over to you Aug...

I haven't been able to check up on latest HRRR guidance but if it does I believe it'll have weakened significantly. fiddle
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by JRnOldsmar on Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:05 pm

Current Day 1 Outlook
1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook  
Forecaster: Cohen
Issued: 05/1629Z
Valid: 05/1630Z - 06/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: High Risk

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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by sangria on Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:37 pm

That is not looking good up in GA/SC
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

Post by JRnOldsmar on Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:49 pm

sangria wrote:That is not looking good up in GA/SC

Yup. Sis outside of Charleston has been warned to keep an eye on things.
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TEXAS,THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD

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