Tracking Season is Coming

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Tracking Season is Coming

Post by gomexwx on Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:15 am

Hurricane Season is almost here and we will be spending some time in the" Main Weather Blog" as this is the Tracking Chart where we meet and Track the storms.


So before these people on our "Guest List" arrive.
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irma
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

I am in here cleaning. The dust is awful:


I know what caused it:


Now I am cleaning all this dust because it relates to our Forecast here in the Southeast the next 4 or 5 days....

DRY....

Dry.....

Dry......

With plenty of sunshine and a 100% chance of more dust....

I didn't want it to get ahead of me, I'd rather track storms than clean blogs...


Stop in and say hello.
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 08, 2017 4:33 pm

First! Let's get that dust cleared out.

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 08, 2017 4:38 pm

I'm putting my money on Harvey. Sorta rolls off the tongue. May it be an August fish.
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:41 pm

I'll be happy if the GOM stays quiet!
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:47 am

Hacking blamed for emergency sirens blaring across Dallas early Saturday


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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by gomexwx on Sun Apr 09, 2017 8:13 am

unreal....somehow seeing the hour that happened,it was a cruel joke or a planned distraction while a crime was done...

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Sun Apr 09, 2017 11:47 am

This is interesting, I have never heard this story.....

The Year Without a Summer

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by gomexwx on Sun Apr 09, 2017 11:54 am

nice read...thanks ,san

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:56 am

There were some very impressive videos caught by some storm chasers yesterday evening in Dimmitt, TX

My youtube is on autoplay, so I had several back to back.  One that was posted on FB had 5 funnels.  This one that starts is beautiful.

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:03 am

Nice multi-vort nader. I see on the SPC page that supercell spit out a few yesterday.
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 15, 2017 8:05 am

April the giraffe is in labor, FINALLY!  

The baby's front hooves are out.

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:42 pm

This is very cool....




ABC Breaking News | Latest News Videos
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by gomexwx on Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:41 pm

That was cool....

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:41 pm

Good evening Arlene.....

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:12 am

Hope no one spent too much time tracking that fiddle storm. Interesting little feature for April though.
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by gomexwx on Sat Apr 22, 2017 1:32 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:Hope no one spent too much time tracking that fiddle storm.  Interesting little feature for April though.

I heard some fish tracked it so they would know where the fishing boats WOULDN'T be......

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:15 pm

honestly I would be very happy if..a weak tropical storm would park over central Florida and sit there for a few days dropping its rain here and ending this bad drought we are in and the fires that come with this drought.

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri Apr 28, 2017 5:15 pm

LargoFL wrote:honestly I would be very happy if..a weak tropical storm would park over central Florida and sit there for a few days dropping its rain here and ending this bad drought we are in and the fires that come with this drought.

There's been a fairly large fire near the FL/GA border. Winds are now out of the south so the smoke for the time being is blowing north into GA. The "experts" say it could burn 6 months. I'm not sure how they can make such claims as it could rain 10" in the next couple months. I attribute it to wanting to grab news headlines.
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 29, 2017 6:33 am

StAugustineFL wrote:

There's been a fairly large fire near the FL/GA border.  Winds are now out of the south so the smoke for the time being is blowing north into GA.  The "experts" say it could burn 6 months.  I'm not sure how they can make such claims as it could rain 10" in the next couple months.  I attribute it to wanting to grab news headlines.

Here is a good page with info about the West Mims fire, including sat images

West Mims Fire

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 29, 2017 7:39 am

That's the one. Thanks san. 60K acres is pretty good size.
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:15 am

The last couple of days have been quite active.  There was a large wedge tornado in Canton, TX (east TX by Longview/Tyler) that caused extensive damage.  







Friday's Storm Report Map


Saturday's Storm Report Map and link to text report
4/29/2017 Storm Report

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:43 am

7 killed as storm hits Midwest, Southwest states - click pic to open vid and article



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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Tue May 16, 2017 3:23 pm

SPC has issued a PDS watch  for part of the TX panhandle and western OK






SEL0

  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  Tornado Watch Number 220
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  150 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

  The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

  * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Western Oklahoma
    Eastern Texas Panhandle

  * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
    1000 PM CDT.

  ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

  * Primary threats include...
    Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
    Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
      inches in diameter likely
    Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
      to 75 mph possible

  SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorms are expected to form
  along the dryline over the eastern Texas Panhandle and track across
  the watch area this afternoon and evening.  Very large hail and
  isolated strong tornadoes are possible in this area.

  The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
  east and west of a line from 75 miles south southwest of Childress
  TX to 55 miles north northwest of Gage OK. For a complete depiction
  of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
  WOU0).

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

  REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
  tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
  area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
  threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
  and possible warnings.

  &&

  AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
  surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
  gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
  storm motion vector 24035.

  ...Hart
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by StAugustineFL on Tue May 16, 2017 4:20 pm

SPC has a moderate risk for the region. Could be some big naders and alot of hail.

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by StAugustineFL on Tue May 16, 2017 5:15 pm

Possible wx forecast for the weekend.  Smile  

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Wed May 17, 2017 3:12 pm

I'm not going to reply to you Aug!!
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Wed May 17, 2017 3:14 pm

WeatherBell Updated 2017 Hurricane Outlook



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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Wed May 17, 2017 3:19 pm

SPC has already issued a moderate risk for tomorrow...

May 17, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook



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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by StAugustineFL on Wed May 17, 2017 4:47 pm

Interesting forecast by JB. Just keep the hurricanes away from here!

Good chase day on the KS/OK flatlands tomorrow.

I am watching today since the folks aren't too mobile these days.



Mesoscale Discussion 0751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Areas affected...Eastern IA...Northwest IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 172024Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued by 21z for portions of
eastern IA and northwest IL.

DISCUSSION...Buoyancy has gradually increased across eastern IA and
northwest IL this afternoon where MLCAPE values are now on the order
of 1000 J/kg. CINH has decreased and thunderstorms are gradually
maturing well ahead of strong negative-tilt short-wave trough.
While substantial low-level drying has surged across MO it appears
near-60F surface dew points should hold across this region. Severe
threat is increasing across this region and a new tornado watch is
warranted to account for expected supercell development.

..Darrow/Goss.. 05/17/2017
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Wed May 17, 2017 5:20 pm

Uggh.... they are in the bulls eye today.
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Wed May 17, 2017 5:24 pm

I see they issued the watch.....




SEL4

  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  Tornado Watch Number 234
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  340 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

  The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

  * Tornado Watch for portions of
    eastern Iowa
    northwestern Illinois
    far northeast Missouri

  * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 340 PM
    until 1100 PM CDT.

  * Primary threats include...
    A couple tornadoes possible
    Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
    Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

  SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms continue to develop/spread across
  eastern Iowa, and are expected to move into parts of northern
  Illinois over the next several hours.  Along with risk for large
  hail and locally damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes will also be
  possible.

  The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
  north and south of a line from 10 miles north northwest of Ottumwa
  IA to 25 miles southeast of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of
  the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
  WOU4).

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

  REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
  tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
  area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
  threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
  and possible warnings.

  &&

  OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...WW 232...WW 233...

  AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
  surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
  gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
  storm motion vector 22040.

  ...Goss
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Thu May 18, 2017 3:06 pm

SPC is getting handy with the PDS watches!   They've issued another one for today....


Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 235




URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  Tornado Watch Number 235
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  115 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

  The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

  * Tornado Watch for portions of
    western Oklahoma
    western north Texas

  * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until
    800 PM CDT.

  ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

  * Primary threats include...
    Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
    Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
      to 4 inches in diameter possible
    Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
      mph possible

  SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop/increase rapidly
  over the next 1-2 hours across eastern portions of the Texas
  Panhandle and into western Oklahoma and western north Texas,
  spreading northeastward with time.  Multiple rounds of storm
  redevelopment will be possible over western parts of the watch.  In
  addition to the risk for very large/damaging hail and locally
  damaging winds,  tornadoes -- a couple likely to be
  significant/intense -- are expected.

  The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
  east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Alva OK to
  75 miles west southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete
  depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
  (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

  REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
  tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
  area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
  threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
  and possible warnings.

  &&

  AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
  surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
  gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
  storm motion vector 23040.

  ...Goss
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Thu May 18, 2017 3:15 pm

And look at that big ole High Risk on the Day 1 Outlook


May 18, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook



Day 1 Convective Outlook  
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  1139 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

  Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

  ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
  SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

  ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
  OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
  OKLAHOMA...

  ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
  HIGH AND MDT RISK AREAS...AND EXTENDING EAST TO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
  AND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

  ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD
  SWATH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

  ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
  GREAT LAKES VICINITY EAST-NORTHEAST TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

  ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SURROUNDING HIGHER-RISK AREAS...AND
  EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SURROUNDING
  HIGHER-RISK AREAS...

  ...SUMMARY...
  An outbreak of severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, very large hail
  and wind damage is expected to develop across parts of the southern
  and central Plains from this afternoon into this evening and
  overnight.  Some strong, long-lived tornadoes are expected, along
  with hail to near 4 inches in diameter, over parts of Kansas and
  Oklahoma.  Large hail, tornadoes and wind damage also will be
  possible outside of these areas across parts of the southern and
  central Plains.  Locally damaging gusts and sporadic hail also are
  expected across parts of the lower Great Lakes region to western New
  England this afternoon and early evening.

  ...Synopsis...
  A large upper low centered over Utah this morning and comprised of
  two smaller centers of upper circulation -- one moving
  east-northeast over southwest Colorado and the other moving
  south-southwest across northeast Nevada and western Utah -- is
  forecast to weaken overall while making very slow eastward progress
  today.  With large-scale/broad upper troughing surrounding this
  feature affecting roughly the western half of the country, dowstream
  ridging will largely prevail over the east.  The exception will be
  across the Great Lakes and into New England, where low-amplitude
  northern-stream short-wave troughing will progress eastward with
  time, north of the southern-stream ridge.

  At the surface, a low over the upper Great Lakes this morning is
  forecast to move/develop eastward through southeast Canada --
  crossing the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valleys through tonight.  A
  trailing cold front will become increasingly west-to-east oriented
  across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region, as the low moves quickly
  eastward, while some northward retreat of the front may occur into
  Kansas as a southern Plains lee low strengthens ahead of western
  U.S. upper troughing.  Continued northward advection of low-level
  moisture across the southern Plains and into parts of Kansas will
  support development of widespread strong-to-severe storms near this
  front, and near and ahead of a dryline extending southward across
  Texas and Oklahoma.  As a result, a broad, potentially high-end,
  all-hazards outbreak of severe weather is expected this afternoon.

  ...Central and southern Plains...
  A complex -- but likely higher-end -- severe weather outbreak is
  expected to evolve this afternoon and evening, near and south of a
  warm front moving slowly northward into Kansas and east of a dryline
  mixing slowly eastward across the southern High Plains.  Very moist
  low-level air continues streaming northward ahead of the developing
  lee low over the High Plains, which combined with strong heating and
  very steep lapse rates aloft within the elevated mixed layer will
  result in strong destabilization, with mixed-layer CAPE into the
  3000 to 4000 J/kg range expected by late afternoon.  Along with
  initiation near the warm front and southward along the dryline mid
  afternoon, CAMs as well as to some degree operational model runs
  continue to strongly suggest a secondary area of convective
  development across parts of central Texas, ahead of the dryline.
  Cellular initial development in all areas will rapidly
  organize/become supercellular, with attendant risk for very large
  hail and locally damaging winds.  In addition, with low-level flow
  likely to remain backed near the frontal zone and southward across
  western and central Oklahoma, a very favorable low-level wind field
  (0-1 km shear in excess of 40 kt and helicity in excess of 300
  m2/s2) suggests that right-moving supercells will be favored, and
  capable of producing strong/damaging tornadoes.

  With time, guidance suggests upscale growth of convection -- both
  across Texas with storms spreading eastward across central and north
  Texas through the evening, and across the Kansas/Oklahoma area where
  one or more northeastward-surging, bowing bands of storms are
  indicated.  Given the degree of CAPE, dry air aloft, and strong
  shear, an organized/widespread damaging wind risk is also apparent.
  Greatest overall combined risk appears to remain across Kansas and
  the northwest half of Oklahoma, though expansion of the ENH risk
  area (to include all severe hazards) is being introduced southward
  to central Texas at this time.  

  Risk should continue through the evening and into the overnight
  hours, with bands of storms spreading east into parts of Missouri
  and Arkansas, but with likelihood for some continued redevelopment
  of storms across western portions of the risk area near the dryline,
  as large-scale ascent persists ahead of the slowly advancing western
  upper trough.

  ...Lower Great Lakes vicinity into portions of New England...
  Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to increase this
  afternoon, from the Midwest/Ohio Valley area east-northeast across
  the lower Great Lakes and into parts of New England.  A moist
  boundary-layer airmass in place (upper 50s to low- to mid-60s) will
  continue to heat/destabilize this afternoon, permitting storms to
  form both along the advancing cold front, as well as along
  pre-frontal confluence bands and lake-breeze boundaries.  While
  somewhat modest west-southwesterly flow aloft is expected over much
  of the Ohio Valley area, limiting severe risk to some degree,
  stronger deep-layer west-southwesterlies centered in the vicinity of
  the international border suggest potential for greater storm
  organization and possibly upscale growth into one or more
  clusters/bands, which will be capable of producing locally damaging
  winds and hail.  Coverage of storms -- and thus severe risk -- will
  diminish gradually through mid to late evening, as the boundary
  layer diurnally stabilizes.

  ..Goss.. 05/18/2017
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Thu May 18, 2017 3:38 pm

KFOR in Oklahoma has a Facebook Live going.  They switch around between radar and their weather chasers.  Here it is, if anyone is interested....

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Thu May 18, 2017 3:41 pm

And here is the link to the nice new Goes 16 visible satellite that is over the area.... it's nice!   (Experimental Only)


NEXLAB Experimental Satellite -- Visible Imagery for Kansas / Oklahoma (GOES16)


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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Thu May 18, 2017 4:43 pm

A 2nd PDS Watch has been issued for Kansas now....




SEL9

  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  Tornado Watch Number 239...CORRECTED
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  330 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

  CORRECTED TO INCLUDE PDS WORDING

  The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

  * Tornado Watch for portions of
    PORTIONS OF central and southern Kansas
  * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
    1100 PM CDT.

  ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

  * Primary threats include...
    Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
    Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
      inches in diameter possible
    Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

  SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across/spread into
  southern portions of Kansas over the next 1-2 hours, with attendant
  increase in significant severe risk -- including very
  large/destructive hail, damaging winds, and the potential for
  several strong tornadoes.

  The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
  north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Dodge City KS to 65
  miles east northeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the
  watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

  REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
  tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
  area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
  threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
  and possible warnings.

  &&

  OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 235...WW 236...WW
  237...WW 238...

  AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
  surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
  gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
  storm motion vector 24035.

  ...Goss
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Thu May 18, 2017 4:44 pm

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by StAugustineFL on Thu May 18, 2017 6:10 pm

Thanks san. Damn - wish I could watch the FB live. I just saw a funnel drop a minute ago but the dinner timer is ringing. fiddle
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri May 26, 2017 7:17 am

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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Fri May 26, 2017 4:15 pm

Look at that dry air wanting to get a spin on!
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Re: Tracking Season is Coming

Post by sangria on Sun May 28, 2017 7:47 am

The 5 day has a little 30% off the Mexican coast in the EPac




ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun May 28 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is likely to form a couple of hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico by the middle of this week.
Some development of this system is possible while it moves slowly to
the south of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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