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4/16/17 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

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Post by LargoFL Wed May 03, 2017 4:19 pm

well Good night from my end folks..im going too be really reading the NWS discussions tomorrow on whats coming storm wise..if any
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Post by StAugustineFL Wed May 03, 2017 4:42 pm

Glad to hear you have a new AC unit Largo.  Not sure how you managed personally but I suppose I would have closed all the blinds/curtains to keep the house from becoming a blast furnace then strategically opening windows based on time of day(pre-dawn and evening)/wind direction/sun angle to usher in some "cooler" air.  And cold showers/drinks.
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Post by StAugustineFL Wed May 03, 2017 5:00 pm

New WPC forecast is out. Wetter for NEFL, and coastal WFL. Drier for SFL. We shall see. I'll be pleased with a quarter inch.
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Post by gomexwx Wed May 03, 2017 5:00 pm

Enough! with the rain....keeps raining like this and blight will be a given in my Garden..
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 4:05 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Glad to hear you have a new AC unit Largo.  Not sure how you managed personally but I suppose I would have closed all the blinds/curtains to keep the house from becoming a blast furnace then strategically opening windows based on time of day(pre-dawn and evening)/wind direction/sun angle to usher in some "cooler" air.  And cold showers/drinks.
thanks Aug, yeah it sure was rough,we are so used to the coolness of A/C,but loose it and wow,your back in the pioneer days lol..sure didn't sleep well at all..but what saved me was, in the daytime here..we had a good breeze,and outside it didn't feel too bad but wow as soon as they turned on the new A/C geez what a wonderful feeling indoors LOL
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 4:11 am

Good Thursday Morning folks!!....local met says tonight thru Friday morning there is a 70% chance for rain around the Tampa Bay area..too early in the morning for the NWS discussions..but i'll take those chances..please give some rain LOL.....kindy breezy outside right now..guess it will be like this today till the front or squall line gets closer...some models are backing off on Heavy rains..we'll just have to wait this out and see what happens...hope nothing severe but you never know huh....well Blogs COFFEE is set to perk for when YOU get here..grab a cup and enjoy ok...have a wonderful day everyone.
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 4:21 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
408 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today-Friday)...
An approaching cold front that will push through the
peninsula will bring showers and a few thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight. Models show a deepening upper trough
that closes off over the mid Mississippi Valley area with a
cold front trailing across the Florida panhandle this
morning. The potential exists for some strong thunderstorms
ahead of the front this afternoon and tonight with some
moderately cold air aloft and some strong unidirectional low
level wind shear that could produce some hail and downburst
winds. Drier and cooler air will move over the peninsula
behind the front Friday bringing high temperatures in the
70s until conditions warm Sunday.

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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 4:23 am

NWS is mentioning lows in the 50's and high's only in the 70's this weekend..lets see if that verifies..sure will feel Great huh!!
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 4:31 am

folks I clipped this from the SPC discussion,ALOT of Uncertainty still.........................(clip).............However, nocturnal static stability will limit the
severe risk. A few storms may also spread eastward across the
central FL Peninsula tonight in association with more moist,
warm-sector air, though nocturnal static stability should temper the
severe risk.

Ultimately, confidence in any particular scenario focusing more than
marginal-caliber severe probabilities is greatly limited. Isolated
damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado could occur with transient
supercell structures or line-embedded meso-vortices, though a more
focused corridor of greater severe potential is presently unclear.
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 4:54 am

Aug and Gome..stay alert and safe ok.............................................NWS Jacksonville...........Thu May 4 2017

...MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon
into early Friday morning as a strong cold front moves through
the area. A few strong to severe storms will be possible mainly
this afternoon into the early evening.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal
waters through tonight.

Smoke from the West Mimms Wildfire may lower visibilities for
a time during the day. Areas affected by dense smoke will be
Charlton...southern Ware...and southern Clinch.

There is a Moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Locations near wildfires may experience reduced visibilities from
areas of smoke mainly during the late night and early morning
hours.

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the offshore waters
Friday night into a portion of Saturday as a secondary cold
front moves offshore.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

$$
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 4:56 am

well we await the coming strong cold front..stay alert and safe thru this ok folks..thats it for me for awhile..BBL..coffee is calling me lol..
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 6:47 am

NWS Tampa says tampa bay area has a 30%chance of showers today, and a 70% chance of showers/storms later this afternoon and evening, and on Friday morning still a 70% chance of showers/storms..so odds are in our favor for some rain..man we sure need it bad here by me
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Post by severstorm Thu May 04, 2017 6:47 am

Good Morning All, Waiting on the rain. Had a fire 1 mile from my house last night. Some nut burning caught the field on fire. Z-hills fire company AWESOME job putting it out!!!! Please don't burn till we get plenty of rain!!
Have a great day
John Z-hills


Last edited by severstorm on Thu May 04, 2017 8:03 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 6:49 am

severstorm wrote:Good Morning All, Waiting on the rain. Had a fire 1 mile from my house last night. So nut burning caught the field on fire. Z-hills fire company AWESOME job putting it out!!!! Please don't burn till we get plenty of rain!!
Have a great day
John Z-hills
Good Morning John..yes this fire situation is real serious huh..glad they got to it early and put it out up there..good luck on the rain later today.
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 7:15 am

Jenny stay alert and safe up there till this passes you ok.............NWS Tallahassee..(clipped)...............Based on recent radar trends, the HRRR, and multiple CAMs (most of
which were performing surprisingly well), we think an MCS will
spread east across our forecast area this morning. There is
likely to be sufficient (if not impressive) buoyancy and strong
vertical wind shear for storm organization with this morning`s
MCS, mainly in the form of bow echoes posing a damaging wind
threat. The greatest threat will be in our FL zones where storms
may be surface-based (as opposed to more elevated storms in GA
and AL). The presence of the aforementioned mesoscale boundary
suggests at least some tornado threat as well. While more
convection may develop along the cold front later today, it
appears the lower troposphere will have been overturned too much
to support a significant severe threat later today.
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 7:17 am

up by Tallahassee showers/storms already............................................florida - 4/16/17 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog - Page 8 1493896201
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 7:19 am

ok that's it for me till later..post away folks lol...BBL
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 8:01 am

I wonder if this line of storms will hold together here by me later today..some discussions say it may weaken then.. get stronger once again over florida,alot of uncertainty for sure.
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Post by j3nnyb3an Thu May 04, 2017 8:52 am

So far so good here! Lots of rain showers and very gloomy outside.
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Post by j3nnyb3an Thu May 04, 2017 8:54 am

Oh! And, May the 4th be with you.
five
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 8:57 am

hmmm posts not showing up again..ok maybe I did something wrong...Jenny..good luck up there
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Post by j3nnyb3an Thu May 04, 2017 9:05 am

LargoFL wrote:hmmm posts not showing up again..ok maybe I did something wrong...Jenny..good luck up there
Thank you Largo! I just wish I could enjoy it from home.
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Post by gomexwx Thu May 04, 2017 10:01 am

total rain fall for the event here...
3.07 inches...
Hope it heads East and stays so all of you can play in the rain!
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 11:31 am

florida - 4/16/17 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog - Page 8 1493911441
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 11:31 am

gomexwx wrote:total rain fall for the event here...
3.07 inches...
Hope it heads East and stays so all of you can play in the rain!
nice rain amount there gome,sure could use that here
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 11:35 am

NWS was mentioning there could be 2 lines of storms..the one we see now and possibly the next one with the actual front..they are really unsure at this point.
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 11:35 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
845 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017


...Marginal risk of severe weather later today and tonight...

.UPDATE...
Water vapor imagery showing large upper low over Arkansas
this morning with ejecting vort max moving over the North
Central Gulf and the FL Panhandle. Significant upper support
generating pre frontal line of thunderstorms well ahead of
frontal boundary, now approaching Apalachicola extending
well into the SW Gulf. This main area of convection progged
to move into the NE Gulf late this afternoon then E Gulf and
the FL Peninsula this evening and tonight. Meanwhile,
another afternoon of seabreeze thunderstorms is expected
with deepening SW flow expected these storms to be well
inland. Most of the area remains in a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms associated with this complex system,
with hail and gusts winds the main threat`s. Also, much
needed rainfall is expected with event totals of 1/2 to 1
inch possible. Latest grids and forecast on track on minor
updates expected.

&&
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 11:42 am

and yes..LOOK at all that Lighting in this line of storms..whew..............florida - 4/16/17 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog - Page 8 Lg_lightning
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 11:46 am

wind already gusting to about 24mph by me..and the storm line isn't even close..guess I will start taking inside things that could blow around outside later when it gets here..haven't done it in months but I cleaned out my gutters this morning...last time I did it..i got 2 sprinkles lol....hope I didn't jinx this LOL
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 11:56 am

Jenny besides the rain..are there any serious winds etc by you there?
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 1:11 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1241 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2017

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Berrien County in south central Georgia...
Northern Lanier County in south central Georgia...

* Until 115 PM EDT

* At 1241 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near Ray City, or near Nashville, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Berrien and northern Lanier Counties, including the
following locations: Weber, Allenville, Bannockburn and
Teeterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 1:12 pm

Gome stay alert and safe up there ok
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 1:15 pm

wow I wonder if its going to be like this here by me this evening..alot of red and yellow..florida - 4/16/17 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog - Page 8 1493916721
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 1:16 pm

real windy by me,just after 1pm or so,suns out but you can feel the humidity..heat and humidity..ammo for storms maybe?
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 1:21 pm

well my area is in the Marginal zone for chances of strong storms..im going to take things in that could blow around..just in case...Rain I sure need..heavy blowing wind and possible hail I do not lol,im guessing everyone is at work...but if you can read the blog..im trying to post how it is weather wise so you'll know what to expect driving home later today..but right now ive things to do outside..BBL
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Post by sangria Thu May 04, 2017 3:56 pm

Well, I might just get some rain this go round!   SPC has also issued a MD

West Coast Florida MD issued by SPC

florida - 4/16/17 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog - Page 8 8eUF1Gf

Mesoscale Discussion 0647
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  0215 PM CDT Thu May 04 2017

  Areas affected...Portions of the central and northern Florida Gulf
  Coast

  Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

  Valid 041915Z - 042215Z

  Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

  SUMMARY...A few brief damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado are
  possible as a convective line moves onshore between 20z (north FL
  Gulf coast) and 22z (near TBW).

  DISCUSSION...A convective line continues moving east-northeast
  toward the central and northern Florida Gulf coast on the leading
  edge of stronger mid-level low and forcing for ascent.  Although
  wind fields are currently weak over the Florida Peninsula, the line
  should continue to move nearly in tandem with the edge of the
  forcing/stronger flow, currently with a motion of about 25 kt to the
  east-northeast.

  Although mid-level lapse rates are meager, only 6 C/km to at best 7
  C/km near TBW, surface temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s amidst
  upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints along the coast are contributing to
  2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE ahead of the convective line.  However,
  MLCAPE values are significantly lower owing to a relatively shallow
  moist layer indicated on RAP forecast soundings.  Furthermore, RAP
  soundings suggest a significant 850-650 mb dry layer ahead of the
  southern end of the line, which may contribute to the demise of the
  line from roughly Charlotte county southward.  

  Nonetheless, with effective bulk shear increasing to 35-45 kt with
  vectors oriented perpendicular to the convective line, the above
  mentioned factors will likely maintain the threat for brief damaging
  winds as the line moves onshore.  Ahead of the northern portion of
  the line, RAP soundings suggest an increase in low-level shear with
  rapidly increasing southerly winds in the 925-700 mb layer, and
  recent HRRR guidance suggest some potential for rotation embedded in
  the line.  Therefore a brief tornado can't be ruled out.  Farther
  into the Florida peninsula deep boundary layer mixing combined with
  meager mid-level lapse rates have eroded much of the instability and
  is therefore expected to aid in the weakening of the line after
  about 23z precluding the need for a watch.
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Post by sangria Thu May 04, 2017 3:57 pm

Current radar...
florida - 4/16/17 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog - Page 8 D8xBSX5
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Post by sangria Thu May 04, 2017 3:58 pm

This afternoon's discussion update from Ruskin - just the short term copied:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
239 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017

...Marginal risk of severe weather later today and tonight...

.SHORT TERM (This Afternoon-Friday)...
Complex and complicated storm system to move through the Deep South
through Friday. Well defined line of thunderstorms continues to
slowly move through the Big Bend area into E Gulf down to the
Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon. The line is currently
about 60 miles West of Cedar Key to 100 miles W of Egmont
Key. We recently received an offshore commercial ship report
of winds 50 kts with 70+ kts and waterspouts in the squall
line. Will continue to closely monitor the line as it nears
the local area.

Huge late season upper low slowly spinning over the Mississippi
River Valley this afternoon with series of large vort maxes wrapping
around base and ejecting over the Gulf. First vort max producing and
pushing the line through E Gulf expected to weekend as
secondary vort sweeps additional activity through the area
overnight in Fri morning. So, the potential for a few rounds
of much needed rainfall is possible. Most of the area
remains in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms
associated with this complex system, with hail and strong
gusty winds the main threats. Expected rainfall totals
continue in the 1/2 to 1 inch range.

Cold front to finally move out of the southern areas Friday
with much cooler and drier Canadian airmass filtering into
the Deep South on breezy NW winds.

Expect westerly winds to increase breaking waves along area
beaches for moderate to high risk of rip currents as well.
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Post by StPeteFLwx Thu May 04, 2017 4:14 pm

Definitely going to get some rain out of this one
florida - 4/16/17 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog - Page 8 01-05-KTBW

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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 4:29 pm

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
423 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2017

FLC067-123-042100-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-170504T2100Z/
Lafayette FL-Taylor FL-
423 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN LAFAYETTE AND EAST CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 422 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located about 5 miles
southwest of Mayo, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mayo, Townsend, Cooks Hammock, Chancey, Smith, Buckville, San Pedro
Junction, Day, Alton and Mayo Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2982 8322 2990 8332 2997 8347 3026 8336
3025 8324 3024 8325 3023 8324 3018 8325
3017 8323 3015 8324 3011 8323 3010 8318
3011 8316 3009 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 214DEG 47KT 3001 8325

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

38-GODSEY
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 4:30 pm

gee we need to watch out for water spouts coming ashore here,i think your right st pete..we are going to get this one.
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 4:32 pm

good luck up there Sang..hopefully we get some good rain,but I'm watching out for any real bad winds etc.
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 4:33 pm

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
429 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2017

FLZ020>022-035-042115-
Columbia FL-Hamilton FL-Suwannee FL-Gilchrist FL-
429 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GILCHRIST...SUWANNEE...
SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
EDT...

At 429 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Dowling Park to Mayo to 10
miles southwest of Obrien to near Cross City. Movement was northeast
at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Live Oak, White Springs, Ichetucknee Spring, Suwannee River State
Park, Suwannee Springs, Columbia, Fort White, Luraville, Mcalpin and
Wellborn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3039 8317 3042 8320 3047 8316 3039 8279
3020 8270 2987 8267 2976 8295 2980 8292
2981 8293 2983 8289 2989 8288 2989 8292
2996 8293 2996 8295 2999 8296 3008 8307
3011 8312 3010 8321 3018 8325 3026 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 218DEG 44KT 3014 8331 3008 8317 2996 8309 2971
8308

$$

NELSON
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Post by StPeteFLwx Thu May 04, 2017 4:52 pm

LargoFL wrote:gee we need to watch out for water spouts coming ashore here,i think your right st pete..we are going to get this one.

Watching the last couple frames of animation looks like the line is weakening as it approaches

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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 4:54 pm

StPeteFLwx wrote:
LargoFL wrote:gee we need to watch out for water spouts coming ashore here,i think your right st pete..we are going to get this one.

Watching the last couple frames of animation looks like the line is weakening as it approaches
yeah might be losing the daytime heating..that could be a good thing for us st pete,just give us some rain Finally LOL
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Post by sangria Thu May 04, 2017 4:58 pm

Weakening is a damned understatement!  


florida - 4/16/17 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog - Page 8 Hda9ayS
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Post by sangria Thu May 04, 2017 5:15 pm

Webcam shot from the pws down the road....


florida - 4/16/17 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog - Page 8 Z3ZTof8
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Post by StPeteFLwx Thu May 04, 2017 5:16 pm

florida - 4/16/17 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog - Page 8 Madeira_beach

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Post by sangria Thu May 04, 2017 5:21 pm

Those waves are churning StPete
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Post by LargoFL Thu May 04, 2017 6:13 pm

well at least everything by me is wet outside,grass and plants are all cheering LOL,,,i just knew...IF I cleaned out my gutters..i'd only get a lil rain..and look..what happened lol...good night folks.
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