CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

StAugustineFL wrote:Good morning.

Yep Largo, could see some stronger storms here the next 4 days.  NWS JAX mentioned the possibility of a flood watch at some point.  Rather impressive considering how dry it's been.  Hopefully my area can squeeze out a good 3" between now and mid-week.  It dries out for several days beginning Thursday but especially Friday into next holiday weekend.  Shaping up to be a perfect Memorial Day up this way.

good morning Aug,yeah your NWS is mentioning some area's could get 2-3 inches in a short time..that sure could cause some quick flooding huh..stay safe ok

it looks like Wednesday.Thursday might get interesting storm wise here in central florida,NWS is mentioning..we'll see how this plays out and if indeed the front stalls out.

oh oh..i sure hope GFS does NOT verify,too far out in time yet..

well next 4-5 days should help with out drought if this proves true huh..

LargoFL wrote:oh oh..i sure hope GFS does NOT verify,too far out in time yet..

That wouldn't be good. Probably one of the GFS 384 hour "ghost" storms but it's getting to be that time of year to be on the lookout.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
952 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.UPDATE...
A couple of adjustments were made to this morning to
the current forecast. The first was to introduce/increase PoPs
for Levy and Citrus counties through early this afternoon as
precipitation is ongoing in this area and lower their high temp
a couple of degrees... The second change was
to bump high temps up a degree inland based on daily trends over
the last week as daytime heating will lead to another warm day with
temperatures in the low-mid 90s. The seabreeze will be quicker
to develop this afternoon and push farther inland. This
will focus thunderstorm development east compared to
previous days.


&&

somehow.outside,I don't feel rain is coming,just might be another hot dry day here by me..but northward from here maybe rain..well enjoy the day folks..next 3 days might get interesting storm wise..then again, NWS keeps changing their idea of whats going to happen..lets play this day by day.

Billsfan everything ok down your way so far?

well there is a big blob of rain out in the gulf but it doesn't looks to anxious to hit Florida,taking its sweet time,making us HOPE it holds together till it comes ashore lol. San unless it does we are in the dry spot once again it seems.

Wednesday/Thursday, could be quite wet and stormy..then again they said that about this weekend and so far..nothing LOL

NWS Miami...Mon May 22 2017

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents for the
Atlantic beaches today and tonight.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening across portions of the interior and Gulf Coast. Lightning
and brief heavy rainfall are the primary threats.

Good Monday Morning folks, well the overnight rains came..rain fell apart before it got to me but..to my north and way to my south...some folks got some good rain..guess I'll have to wait for wens and especially Thursday for some good rain with the next front,which they are hinting..might be a bit stronger we'll see how this plays out huh.............well Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!!

it looks like you have good chance of showers there ST Pete..good luck......

Just want to mention,they raised our forecast to Slight now in the 3 day,might be some severe storms ..

NWS Tampa.........Mon May 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds...locally heavy rains...and frequent deadly lightning
strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong gusty
winds...locally heavy rains...and frequent deadly lightning
strikes. A slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible on Tuesday and Wednesday with a cold front.

Ended up with 0.55" from Friday through Sunday, most of it falling in a brief downpour yesterday late morning. If the WPC 5 day QPF is correct it will really help with the fire danger. Keeping my fingers crossed it verifies.

waterdipper wrote:Ended up with 0.55" from Friday through Sunday, most of it falling in a brief downpour yesterday late morning. If the WPC 5 day QPF is correct it will really help with the fire danger. Keeping my fingers crossed it verifies.

good morning WD..yes we could be in for a lot of rain thru this week,just hope no bad lightning since they are hinting at possibly a few severe storms and wind etc...good luck ok.

LargoFL wrote:Billsfan everything ok down your way so far?

Good morning Largo and friends.

Yep, all ok here Largo. Had to take a quick trip this weekend to Sarasota to see FIL in assisted living facility over there. Got some heavy rain in Englewood on Saturday night. I've been going there to visit in-laws since the early 90's and I believe it's the first time I've seen a good thunderstorm over there.

I haven't even had a chance to check our weather yet. Kind of hoping for no rain, or just rain after work hours as we have a lot of work to get done and cannot do so in the rain.

Have a good day.

You could see from 75 where there was a fire near the North Port area (Charlotte County I believe). Small areas of scorched trees on both sides of 75. That area was shut down the weekend before last. We saw a few small areas on Alligator Alley in Collier where there were fires recently.

LargoFL wrote:it looks like you have good chance of showers there ST Pete..good luck......

Yes we did get about a tenth early this morning. Hopefully this drought is over!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:You could see from 75 where there was a fire near the North Port area (Charlotte County I believe). Small areas of scorched trees on both sides of 75.  That area was shut down the weekend before last.  We saw a few small  areas on Alligator Alley in Collier where there were fires recently.  

ok glad no big fires where you went.

StPeteFLwx wrote:

LargoFL wrote:it looks like you have good chance of showers there ST Pete..good luck......

Yes we did get about a tenth early this morning.  Hopefully this drought is over!

yes, and from the NWS forcast, some good rain chances this week..good luck ST Pete....not a drop here since Friday.

I guess THIS is what they are mentioning wens/thurs for storms......

yeah this might just be a bit stormy wens and especially Thursday..

stay alert and safe thru the coming days especially mid week ok, sure hoping for some good rain amounts for all of us.

Cool pic from the downtown St. Pete weatherstem camera.  Looks like a hawk hanging out on the right side

Thoughts on Sarasota. We went on some errands to get supplies for FIL, and it was a madhouse every where. I cannot imagine what it must be like there when the snowbirds are here in full force!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thoughts on Sarasota.  We went on some errands to get supplies for FIL, and it was a madhouse every where. I cannot imagine what it must be like there when the snowbirds are here in full force!  

yes ive been there several times over the years..traffic can be a nightmare..it IS heavy with snowbirds alright during the season. a very popular destination,lots for them to do down there.

StPeteFLwx wrote:Cool pic from the downtown St. Pete weatherstem camera.  Looks like a hawk hanging out on the right side

lol yeah..its keeping a good eye on ya down there lol..i see our rain chances might get better later today, we'll see how this goes...for myself I'm really going to stay alert wens/thurs...hope no weak tornado's or bad damaging winds.

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
946 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
...Better Rain Chances Daily Today Through Through Midweek...

A more favorable setup for development of afternoon convection
continues to evolve as a series of mid level disturbances moving
across the lwr MS Valley and the SE states will combine with deeper
local moisture, ample surface heating and surface boundaries for
showers and storms this afternoon and into the evening. The morning
sounding @ XMR shows a notable increase in column moisture over the
past 24H with just under 2 inches PWAT. Light SFC winds will allow
for the development of a defined east coast breeze along with local
boundaries near larger bodies of water. A westerly steering
component developing to winds aloft will favor the middle to eastern
portion of the peninsula for movement of aftn/eve showers/storms.
Higher coverage amount wl be across the I-4 corridor east to Volusia
Co and the Space Coast late today. A few storms may become strong
with gusty winds, frequent lightinng and small hail.

Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s with lows in upper 60s to
low 70s tonight.

&&

Billsfan..have you seen Matt posting anywhere?..sure would be great if he found us

I hope Gome is ok with those storms up there

LargoFL wrote:Billsfan..have you seen Matt posting anywhere?..sure would be great if he found us

No I haven't. I wish he'd find us!

Morning All,
Lots of lightning and thunder late last night. I got .66 in the bucket yesterday. nothing Friday or Saturday.
Looking forward to wed thurs for what might be a drought buster rain. Fingers crossed!!
Have a great day.
John Z-hills

Morning. Quick drive-by post.....

.14" last night. 2 day total of .70". Hoping to get 2-4" more the next 3 days. We shall see.

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
Lots of lightning and thunder late last night. I got .66 in the bucket yesterday. nothing Friday or Saturday.
Looking forward to wed thurs for what might be a drought buster rain. Fingers crossed!!
Have a great day.
John Z-hills

yes we need some real good rain for sure

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:Billsfan..have you seen Matt posting anywhere?..sure would be great if he found us

No I haven't.  I wish he'd find us!

yes me too. maybe once the tropical season starts.

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  Quick drive-by post.....

.14" last night.  2 day total of .70".  Hoping to get 2-4" more the next 3 days.  We shall see.

good morning Aug..yes hopefully midweek will be really wet

never heard of a puss Caterpillar?..have you?.........................Poisonous caterpillars, known as puss caterpillars, are once again popping up in Florida, and officials are warning residents not to be fooled by the creature's soft and furry appearance. 
It's the most venomous caterpillar in the U.S. and even a simple brush with the insect can cause "excruciating pain," according to National Geographic. The caterpillars' fur hides toxic spines that stick to your skin

yes hope no tornado's..............................NWs Tampa update (clipped)...........A significant trough amplification for late May takes place
into the northern Gulf later Tuesday Night through
Wednesday. Increasing large scale ascent ahead of this
trough...supplemented by diffluent flow aloft is quite
favorable to support widespread heavy rainfall across the
Florida peninsula. Associated surface front will be slow to
advance across the region, and this sets up the potential
for several rounds of rainfall to move across the region. In
addition, increasing wind fields/deep layer shear (35-45kts)
ahead of the trough is plenty to support more organized
thunderstorm/updraft potential. The storm prediction center
has outlooked our entire region in a slight risk of severe
weather (including isolated tornadoes) Wednesday/Wednesday
night...and feel this is appropriate given the NWP ensemble
solutions for this event. Although during the day Wednesday
is likely to be wet...with some stronger storms...the most
organized severe weather potential looks to be Wednesday
evening through early Thursday morning.

&&

Just imagine..you walk out into your backyard..you hear a noise you look up into your tree..and look...up there..a 120lb black bear is up there geez..this is happening right now up in winter haven..FWC officers and a trapper and police trying to get the bear down safely..per baynews9..................WINTER HAVEN -- 
Officials with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission are monitoring a bear in a tree in a backyard in Winter Haven. 
Bear loose in Winter Haven neighborhood
Black bear, about 120 pounds, up in tree
FWC, trapper at the scene
A trapper also is at the scene, along with police officers. 

LargoFL wrote:well there is a big blob of rain out in the gulf but it doesn't looks to anxious to hit Florida,taking its sweet time,making us HOPE it holds together till it comes ashore lol. San unless it does we are in the dry spot once again it seems.

Largo, I don't hold my breath for rain events. I've learned that in FL, a 50% chance means SOMEONE else has a 50% chance of getting my rain!

US National Weather Service Tampa Bay Florida (Facebook post)


A late season cold front is expected to bring the threat for widespread heavy rainfall and a few strong/severe storms late Tue night into Wednesday. The main weather threats during this period will be localized flooding, damaging winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes.

12Z NAM Radar





12Z NAM Total QPF

sangria wrote:

LargoFL wrote:well there is a big blob of rain out in the gulf but it doesn't looks to anxious to hit Florida,taking its sweet time,making us HOPE it holds together till it comes ashore lol. San unless it does we are in the dry spot once again it seems.

Largo, I don't hold my breath for rain events.  I've learned that in FL, a 50% chance means SOMEONE else has a 50% chance of getting my rain!

LOL after what happened here this weekend I think your right..not a drop by me lol

I'm guessing tues morning's nws discussions might just take on a more serious tone..alot of uncertainty in whats coming this week and we all know for sure there will be daytime heating whew...just might be more severe storms than originally thought...we'll see how this plays out.

afternoon showers firing up now,..so far mainly North of I-4...good luck to those who get some rain.