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CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Thu May 11, 2017 4:49 pm

NWS Jacksonville.........................
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Dangerous fire weather expected for portions of the area on
Friday due to breezy winds and low humidity nearing Red Flag
Warning criteria.

Smoke from West Mims Wildfire will be drifting east through parts
of Charlton county, and also parts of Nassau, Duval, and Camden
counties Friday. Overnight and early morning visibilities will
likely remain low near the West Mims wildfire Friday morning and
Saturday morning.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday.
Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.


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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Thu May 11, 2017 4:50 pm

what the fire area's do NOT need is high winds huh,it might be a good thing this front will stall out way up in northern florida.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Thu May 11, 2017 5:50 pm

Good afternoon.  I'm not too hopeful of rain chances Saturday.  A random location may benefit but most won't.  Then back to dry conditions.  Speaking of dry......

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Thu May 11, 2017 6:00 pm

Just to put things in perspective......... Recall the exceptional D4 drought in TX circa 2010 where virtually the entire state was in it. Similar in CA the last few years before they recovered the past 2 winters.

If it seems dry, it has been...........but it could be much worse.
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 4:37 am

Good Friday Morning Folks and TGIF!!.........today another HOT and Dry day ahead around here,except for the Panhandle area which could..get some rain today...good luck Gomey as well by you ok.......well Blogs Coffee is perking for when you get here..enjoy,Have a Great day everyone.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by severstorm on Fri May 12, 2017 6:46 am

Morning All, Not much going on. need rain!!
Maybe just maybe Saturday afternoon.
Have a great weekend Cool
Thanks for the coffee Largo!!! Very Happy
John Z-hills

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 7:08 am

severstorm wrote:Morning All, Not much going on. need rain!!
Maybe just maybe Saturday afternoon.
Have a great weekend Cool
Thanks for the coffee Largo!!! Very Happy
John Z-hills
..OK John..Coffee came out great this morning!! LOL..good luck on getting some rain up there tomorrow..hopefully we get a few showers here...looks like I-4 Northward,we'll see how this plays out

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 8:04 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Just to put things in perspective.........   Recall the exceptional D4 drought in TX circa 2010 where virtually the entire state was in it.  Similar in CA the last few years before they recovered the past 2 winters.  

If it seems dry, it has been...........but it could be much worse.
yes it sure could be,news guy yesterday noted it WAS worse I think he said in 2001 here..................say AUG...good luck on getting rain up there...seems you and over by Gomey are in the better area's for getting some better rainfall,local met doesn't think my area will get much..possibly a passing shower..but my area will get ours once the rainy season begins....have a great day up there ok

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 8:05 am

JR are you back home yet?

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 8:06 am

Scott..are you still busy? we can use your insight here on the coming Tropical season ok.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 8:07 am

well just 2-3 more weeks and our rainy season AND tropical season begin...we'll see how this year plays out with both.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri May 12, 2017 9:02 am

Morning all.  TGIF.

Thanks Largo.  NWS upped to a 60% chance for tomorrow but the storms are forecast to be quick movers so rainfall totals will be on the light side.  Just hope there are no new fires from lightning.  

Today and tomorrow..........



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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 10:50 am

gee Aug I hope no lightning started fires up there for sure,supposedly there May be a few pop up strong storms..watch out for those surprise high winds like we got here whew..50-60 mph winds can sure make a mess..hope your winds aren't too bad ok....here we are praying for some rain..I had to run my sprinklers twice this morning just to soak the ground real good.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 10:57 am

Nam model puts the Low with some showers over my area around 3pm Saturday..

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 10:58 am

boy I sure hope Nam verifies,we really need these showers here.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 11:01 am

GFS says YOu might get a few showers Sunday Billsfan,good luck ok...........

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 11:03 am

I'm glad the models the front does come down florida,any chance of a shower or two is so much better than what we have been getting..hot and dry whew.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 12:37 pm

NWs Melbourne for Saturday.............................
Isolated lightning storms are possible Saturday ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary mainly across Lake, Volusia, Seminole
and Orange counties. The primary threat will be occasional
lightning strikes.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 12:39 pm

stay alert when this gets to your area AUG.................NWS Jacksonville............
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

A cold front will approach our region from the west on Saturday.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms possible. Stronger activity will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 45-60 mph, hail, and
frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes. Thunderstorm coverage
will quickly decrease on Saturday evening as the front moves
through northeast and north central Florida.

Smoke from West Mims Wildfire will be moving northeastward
from eastern Charlton County through inland Nassau County and into
Camden and Glynn Counties on Saturday. Early morning visibilities
will likely be reduced to less than a mile near and just
northeast of this ongoing wildfire on Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to monitor forecasts for Saturday and may need
to self-activate if severe thunderstorm warnings are issued.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

$$

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 12:41 pm

gee Aug there MIGHT BE..45-60mph wind gusts up there...take everything outside IN that could blow around..man did we here get those surprised winds..man the clean up was hard lol...good luck ok...hope you get some good rainfall totals.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 12:45 pm

stay alert up there Jenny.......................................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1107 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017

.UPDATE...

Increased chances of showers and thunderstorms across our
northwestern areas this afternoon and early evening as latest CAM
runs have come into better agreement on a cluster of storms
moving eastward into southeast AL and inland FL Panhandle
locations starting around 18-19Z. With SBCAPE values increasing to
1500-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear around 30-40 kts during
this time, a few of the storms could become strong to severe in
these areas with hail and damaging winds being the main threats.

Otherwise, the current forecast looks to be on track, and only
minor adjustments were made through tonight. The highest chance
of rainfall across most of our area, as showers and thunderstorms
will be likely during this time along/ahead of a cold front. A
marginal risk of severe weather will remain present through this
time with hail and damaging winds possible in the strongest
thunderstorms.


&&

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri May 12, 2017 2:16 pm

I'll be fine Largo.  I have nothing outside that can blow around except trees and shrubs, lol

Here's a comparison between the GFS and NAM though 78 hours.  I know which one I'll be wishcasting for.

GFS:


NAM:
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Fri May 12, 2017 2:42 pm

Can I have Door #3?
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 3:44 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:I'll be fine Largo.  I have nothing outside that can blow around except trees and shrubs, lol

Here's a comparison between the GFS and NAM though 78 hours.  I know which one I'll be wishcasting for.

GFS:


NAM:
ok good luck up there Aug..NWS Tampa is now saying the front will wash out over my area..it figues..im in the dry spot once again...but hopefully a shower or 2 will surprise us.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 3:45 pm

sangria wrote:Can I have Door #3?
LOL Sang.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 3:45 pm

NWS Tampa...........(clip)........LONG TERM (Saturday Night-Friday)...
A cold front will be washing out across the area Saturday
night/Sunday as the upper trough moves over the state. This will keep
some scattered rain chances in through Sunday gradually exiting to
the south. Weak high pressure then builds into the area for next
week. Generally E/SE winds will develop a sea breeze each afternoon
near the coast with a few isolated afternoon/evening storms each day
through the rest of the period. Temperatures will be above normal
through the period.

&&

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 3:48 pm

Aug...it would be nice if the CMC verified huh........................................

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Fri May 12, 2017 3:54 pm

Largo, you'll like this map... it would shift south if it actually came to fruition. (which I seriously doubt)


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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 5:05 pm

sangria wrote:Largo, you'll like this map... it would shift south if it actually came to fruition. (which I seriously doubt)


oh wow..oh yes..it would be Great it that happened Sang...i'd be happy with a half inch of rain,something to wet down this ground ,ran my sprinklers twice this morning...now its bone dry again lol

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Fri May 12, 2017 5:06 pm

well we are going out to dinner I think...have a wonderful night folks,the weekend is finally here huh.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri May 12, 2017 5:37 pm

Enjoy your dinner Largo.

We shall see who gets the rain. I actually have a few cumulus clouds this afternoon which has been a rare sighting. I've been walking the neighborhood to shed some weight and can say the retention ponds are down around 3'
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Sat May 13, 2017 4:40 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Enjoy your dinner Largo.

We shall see who gets the rain.  I actually have a few cumulus clouds this afternoon which has been a rare sighting.  I've been walking the neighborhood to shed some weight and can say the retention ponds are down around 3'
yeah news is saying its like that all around the state, we need the rainy season to kick in but we still have weeks to go yet.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Sat May 13, 2017 4:41 am

I see NWS Tampa has increased my rain chances up to 60% today (Saturday)...

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Sat May 13, 2017 4:43 am

Don't know if this updates but 4 30 am Saturday and rain line is into north florida already..

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Sat May 13, 2017 4:46 am

Good Saturday Morning folks,.no rain or wind by me here yet..probably wont happen till this afternoon if at all,we'll see how it plays out..good luck to those who get some rain today............well Blogs Coffee is set to perk for when you get here...grab a cup and relax..its the weekend huh.........have a wonderful day everyone!!

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Sat May 13, 2017 6:33 am

NWS Tampa..Sat May 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A line of thunderstorms will move southeast through the area today
and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. A few stronger
storms will be possible, mainly north of Tampa Bay and along the
Nature Coast. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds and small hail.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
Breezy winds today ahead of an approaching front will create
dangerous boating conditions on area lakes.


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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat May 13, 2017 6:51 am

Morning all and good luck with the rain today. NWS JAX is forecasting widespread 1/2" to 1" totals. In 12 hours we shall see if they are correct.
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat May 13, 2017 7:38 am

Not sure I'm a believer of the latest HRRR but it updates hourly so the next run may be vastly different. Current radar has moderate rain moving onshore further south than what is depicted here however more convection should fire later.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Sat May 13, 2017 7:43 am

Current radar showing precip moving toward the coast


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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Sat May 13, 2017 7:45 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Not sure I'm a believer of the latest HRRR but it updates hourly so the next run may be vastly different.  Current radar has moderate rain moving onshore further south than what is depicted here however more convection should fire later.  



The HRRR is looking very generous to you Aug, not so much down here.
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat May 13, 2017 7:48 am

If that were to come to fruition it would offer a little relief to the West Mims fire as well.
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by waterdipper on Sat May 13, 2017 9:57 am

Well, it has been raining very lightly off an on most of the morning here. I have 0.15" in my rain gauge currently and by the looks of the radar it might just be about over for me. Happy to have at least gotten a little bit. Looks like Citrus and Hernando counties getting the bulk of the rain at the present.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Sat May 13, 2017 10:20 am

This should be an updating loop.......


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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Sat May 13, 2017 10:21 am

Morning Waterdipper!  

Glad you got a little this morning.  Hopefully it doesn't start to wash out as it drops south.
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat May 13, 2017 10:36 am

sangria wrote:This should be an updating loop.......



Looking at the western edge of the precip in the GOM it's expanding to the north. I hope that trend continues in the coming hours and we all get some relief.

It's cloudy and mild here today so if nothing else it's a nice reprieve from the past 3 days of 95 degrees w/full sunshine aside from a couple of clouds yesterday.
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Sat May 13, 2017 10:48 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning all and good luck with the rain today.  NWS JAX is forecasting widespread 1/2" to 1" totals.  In 12 hours we shall see if they are correct.
IF that verifies great for you Aug..might help with any fires inland there huh

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Sat May 13, 2017 10:49 am

sangria wrote:Current radar showing precip moving toward the coast


good morning sang,just checked and the rain line is just north of new port richey,looks like Brooksville area is getting a good soaking.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Sat May 13, 2017 10:51 am

waterdipper wrote:Well, it has been raining very lightly off an on most of the morning here. I have 0.15" in my rain gauge currently and by the looks of the radar it might just be about over for me. Happy to have at least gotten a little bit. Looks like Citrus and Hernando counties getting the bulk of the rain at the present.
good morning WD,glad you at least got something, nothing here yet,line is supposed to break up some over me later today,hope I at least get a good shower.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Sat May 13, 2017 10:53 am

YESSSS..it seems the rains could come a little further south than anticipated......................................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1018 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Rain is moving across the Nature Coast and adjacent coastal
waters this morning. Have updated the pops a bit to bring
them a little further south. Have also adjusted temperatures
a degree or two. Will update for these changes. Rest of
forecast is on track with the line of storms expected to
push south through the day ahead of the front. Gusty
SW winds are still expected through the day, and the Lake
Wind Advisory will continue through this evening.

&&

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Sat May 13, 2017 10:56 am

Quite a different morning here..more humid and Breezy,and met says it will be a bit cooler.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

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