Weekend Weather Roundup

This is the first real main weather blog here on thunderboltwx.com. I thought I would keep the current subject dealing with weather events affecting the Southern United States, as all of our members during this test cycle are from this region.

The Saharan Air Layer.

The Saharan Air Layer, also known as SAL, has arrived to the Florida peninsula. While most Saharan dust outbreaks remain confined to the open waters of the Atlantic and Caribbean islands, at times, the SAL does reach the CONUS and generally in July. The reason for this is because the Saharan air intrusions are more likely when the subtropical ridge and trade winds over the Atlantic are strong. The mid-latitude sea level pressure across the Atlantic have been above average for the last week or so. Dry, sinking air is promoted on the eastern flank of the ridging, and the trade winds help carry the dry air and African dust westward.





This Saharan Air Layer event has been widely publicized over the local and National news and weather outlets. The side effects to us humans in Florida is that there is hotter than normal temperatures and the inhibition of Tropical Cyclone development in the Atlantic. The dust partials are generally confined to about 5000 feet and just causes a slight haze and a enhanced sunset.



The SAL can be seen exiting the Coast of Africa tracking Westward towards the United States


The Atlantic Basin is relatively calm with only a high amplitude tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles. Dry air should prevent this wave from organizing into anything more. The Pacific has also settled down following Daniel, Emilia, and Fabio
Although the tropical outlooks via the Hurricane Center correctly show no immediate potential, there are a few areas to watch in the tropics. First, disorganized convection continues to plague the northern Gulf Coast. While no models show development, this activity should be watched for some home grown development. It has been consistent . Long range guidance also suggest a strong wave will exit Africa in 6-7 days, along with potentially more development in the Pacific.


Severe Weather Outlook

Here is tomorrows early Convective outlook.



..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EAST TX/LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...AN EXTENSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXPANSION TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...SEVERAL
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE A SOMEWHAT FLATTENING/MORE
ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TIER...AHEAD OF A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

...EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT /ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE/...SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS
WILL REMAIN COMMON ALONG/SOUTH OF A SOUTHWARD TRANSITIONING
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE. DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE...ALONG
WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL...WILL BE ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX TO LA/LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE A
DEGREE OF SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS /ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION/...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ARE WHERE A HOTTER/MORE
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES
TO CAROLINAS...COMPARATIVELY WEAKER DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION...SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL BE MORE
MARGINAL/LOCALIZED.

Folks in Louisiana,Texas. and parts of Southeast Mississippi will be in the highest threat area and will need to be on the lookout for severe storms setting up along the boundary layer in the area tomorrow afternoon. While I think the tornado threat will be very minimal the risk of large hail and damaging winds will definitely be a possibility. Isolated strong to severe storms are a possibility in remaining potions of the Southeast.







Please feel free to comment: E

Great blog, e. Thanks for taking the time to post it.

Excellent work e! Great read with my morning coffee.

Current Observations (testing)

Now, THIS is what I call a weather blog!!! Thanks e, for all of your hard work!!!!

Sure is not a lot happening in the southeast US right now....a little moisture from the shortwave trough, still pushing through southern LA and MS, and into the Gulf.....

Blop

Looking a bit nasty south of Lake Charles.....Sea will catch some of it, but looks like the worst is SE of her area....

Thanks E. It'll be status quo in central MO for the next several days. Plentiful sunshine with highs 100-105. Looks like maybe the ridge will try to break down a little come Thursday.

Looks like one more round of SAL moving to the west.

StAugustineFL wrote:Thanks E. It'll be status quo in central MO for the next several days. Plentiful sunshine with highs 100-105. Looks like maybe the ridge will try to break down a little come Thursday.

So I" see you made it up to visit the Death Ridge. Hopefully the Humidity and Dew points stay in the lower range so it makes it a little more comfortable for ya. Imagine us having that temp down here in Florida, we would die with the Dew Points in the 70's.

Another hot day in St Lucie County. No rain in sight for me.

The stifling Death Ridge will continue across the nation`s midsection today, with more triple-digit heat in the Plains. Thunderstorms will erupt in the Great Lakes, Gulf Coast and in the Rockies.

High pressure continues to be parked over the Central Plains which promises to continue to bring on the Heat. Temperatures will rise to the upper 90s and low 100s from the Dakotas to Oklahoma, east to the Missouri River Valley. The remainder of the interior West along with the Rockies and Upper Midwest will see highs in the upper 80s and 90s.

An upper-level disturbance racing through southern Canada will help to fire up severe storms across northern Minnesota, while more scattered storms affect the East Coast. The Pacific West Coast will see the best weather today with Highs in the 70s along the coast to 80s inland.

The best concentration of showers and storms will be found here at home along the Gulf Coast and in Florida. A tropical wave will be moving out of the Caribbean into Florida today increasing our rain chance for the next couple of days and then we should have another bout of dry air and SAL moving into the area. Highs will be fairly typical for mid-July with 80s along the coast due to a Easterly fetch and 90s inland.

Nice blog, E. Thanks.

Latest Bispectral Image

Ground observation. It is getting very ugly here.

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