Latest topics
» 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER
Today at 7:40 pm by BillsfaninSoFla

» TROUBLE IN THE TROPICS, Coming Soon to a Body of Water near you.....
Today at 4:14 pm by StAugustineFL

» NASCAR 2017
Yesterday at 11:07 am by BillsfaninSoFla

» CLOSED 7-25 FLORIDA/ALABAMA Tropical season weather
Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:06 am by sangria

» Apollo 12 Landing Site
Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:00 pm by sangria

» APOLLO LANDING SITES
Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:28 am by sangria

» CLOSED 7-1-17 Florida/Alabama Weather
Tue Jul 25, 2017 3:31 pm by JRnOldsmar

» A Crisis for Your Devices
Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:08 pm by StAugustineFL

Florida Blog
Southeast Radar Loop
Kamala Severe Warnings
Photobucket
Warnings
WPC 5 Day Precip
Search
 
 

Display results as :
 


Rechercher Advanced Search

Keywords


Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:12 pm

It's official Cindy is a killer. She blew a log ashore and hit a child,killing the child..
Here is the link
http://www.al.com/news/mobile/index.ssf/2017/06/tropical_storm_cindy_2017_powe.html#incart_river_home_pop



It's official we have tropical storm Cindy in the Gulf
Summary for Tropical Storm Cindy (AT3/AL032017)
June 20, 2017, 12:33 PM
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 the center of Cindy was located near 25.9, -90.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 4A
June 20, 2017, 12:33 PM
...NOW that Cindy is stationary EXPECT to see warning issued farter East as I suspect we will see a more NORTHERLY movement and then Cindy will move NNE to NE...Be ready in the Florida Panhandle as this increases your chances of severe weather as more of the flow will effect more of the panhandle..STAY TUNED!

Good morning had to turn the Weather Channel off. Why? Bad grammar, the warning for my area pops on every minute and every time they do they mispronounce the nearest city. I mean would you respect or listen to station that pronounced Miami "MIMI"...Well that's how bad they mispronounce MOBILE ,AL...they call us something in motion or an OIL company..We are a French founded city and it's pronounced with the "i" being two long "e"s. How sad to look so dumb to a national audience. Hey Weather Channel you have covered the Gulf Coast for 20 years now with Hurricanes and still cant get our name right...OK Rant over!

Looks like Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is going to dump ton's of rain on the Gulf Coast. Here is the potential track:

Expect 8" or greater of rain East of the Center
KEEP IN MIND the worst impacts from this storm will be EAST of the center. Rain from Potential Tropical cyclone Three is already impacting the Coast

More later

TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
Location: 24.7°N 88.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017






6/19/17 afternoon update...This could be the reason we wont see a lot of development in the gulf.
This is an ULL and it will create shear in the 50kt to 60kt range. It should keep our system at bay and help move the area north quicker...


I normally don't do a lot of forecasting, when I do it's mainly tropical weather. This week there is a lot of buzz going on about the Southern Gulf of Mexico and a West moving tropical wave in the Mid Atlantic between Africa and the Windward Islands. KEEP IN MIND this time of year I am a big skeptic of anything forming. "If" I were to forecast any June storm at all 98% of the time it would be a developing hybrid system due to fronts that stall over the Northern Gulf from the lingering effects of last winters zonal flow..See old man winter don't give up trying to influence the weather most of the time until the Sun hits the tropic of Cancer which is June 21 at 5:00 PM EDT.  From that point on Summer rules and my forecast for tropical weather become less skeptical as the main ingredient for the soup( Heat) is here to stay until old man winter turns the sea breeze back to his zonal flow..

Three things that make me a skeptic in June and they are in play!

1: Shear when the seasons change,there is always shear and we have that!

2 Zonal Flow. and yes that is lingering over the Gulf and is still an influence..



3: Outliers due to two weather patterns at war...the zonal flow and the Bermuda high trying to bring in summers trade winds. This can complicate things in June and many things the models miss can kill any development quick...

Let's start closest to home...
The area with a yellow X in the Extreme Western Caribbean Sea.


Do you see a big red area anymore? No you see a yellow X.
Why? The NHC loved that area yesterday but today they don't
Look to reason number 1 SHEAR. Looks like the shear in the area is around 30kts which is double what's needed for tropical systems to thrive. The tendency is to lessen a bit maybe 10 kts but not enough to really expect things to go boom!



Now should something develop in the Southern Gulf..oh where oh where would it go?

West...for a day then North and then ,you guessed it Northeast when it finds old man winter's last lingering effects of zonal flow..yet another blow to the system..
I predict the panhandle of Florida to Just South of the Big Bend area as the place the system may end up..
One way or another someone may get copious amounts of rain!..I am skeptical of any real development..
But I will be watching and will make a new blog should one be needed.

Now area 2 The NHC actually gives this tropical wave a chance. For this wave to come off Africa and hold together at all this early in the season is NOT normal..
Shows one thing to me.. The ITCZ may be very active this year and come August when the Cape Verde Season arrives, we may see a few more storms than expected and the number of storms may ramp up on the Mid Season Forecast!..ALL SPECULATION

But This area is there, it is real and the NHC gives it a 30% chance. I give it a 90% chance of being a cloud when it meanders with the ITCZ then breaks off and heads WNW and slams into 40kt shear. I am very much a skeptic of this one making the Windward Islands.

So my first tropical forecast of the year amounts to nothing because I see nothing...

thoughts?

Thanks for the thoughts.

Like I said I would update if needed...It might be needed.

What I noticed over night was a change in the atmosphere that added more ingredients to the tropical soup.

For a system to develop you need things to be able to come together at the surface so this is called Lower Level Convergence. Guess what, that is developing as you can see the convergence is increasing in the extreme Western Caribbean.


Then at the same time when you have this convergence the air gets lifted. This air needs a vent we call this upper air divergence and as you can see by the chart below it is increasing.

Now if a tropical system can't breathe it cant live...look at upper level divergence and lower level convergence as way way a tropical system breathes. It takes air in at the surface and exhales in the upper atmosphere. Now that this is improving you can see why the chances are better for development...so we have a better maybe!!! Lets watch some more...

Since this has been a continuing blog on the possible development of a system , we will update as things needed for development happen...

As we see tha NHC upped the chances again...Maybe they see what I see and that's yet another ingredient to our soup..
That ingrediant is the Diurnal Cycle..
At night due to the water temperature being higher than the air temperature this heat rises. This excellerates the lift from the Low Pressure causing more storms to develop with higher towers. We see this happened last night


During the day time the air temperature is higher than the water temperature creating a Cap in the atmosphere(inversion) and you see less thunderstorm activity...Like yesterday when there was little storms tied to the system...they would build and quickly dissipate...

So we now have one more tropical ingredient...so the chances for development increase...

STAY TUNED!

This morning the broad area of Low pressure is over the Northeast Yucatan Coast moving North. I expect to see some organization today. I now have the feeling this will be a subtropical storm(Meaning the storm develops North of the tropic of Cancer) Unless a storm develops in the tropics it's considered subtropical but that don't mean underestimate the potential strength. A subtropical storm can become a hurricane.

Now as for a forecast I really don't see this system ramping up to Hurricane strength. For the reasons listed above from the original blog.

It will still head NNW then N and maybe even NE ...

The shear levels over the Gulf ahead of this system is up to 50kts and will increase as we have a Mid to upper Level Low deepening over Texas. You can see this on today's weather map:



We will be watching!!! Have a great day!


Last edited by gomexwx on Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:30 pm; edited 16 times in total

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by JRnOldsmar on Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:51 pm

"thoughts?"

Excellent post, and can add nothing wx wise. Well written, easily comprehendible, supported speculations/conclusions. No argument here.

Thanks for the solstice date. I was just checking the shadow lines out back, thinking to look it up.
avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 361
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by sangria on Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:30 am

Thanks for doing a pre-"real" season system Gomey!!

How about a few morning updates?

1)   NHC has upped the % of both systems (at least on the 5 day).  The next TWO comes out in 30  min or so, so this could change!

Carib storm is now 20/70
East Atlantic wave is now 40/70

2)  Shear - depending on where exactly the Carb storm forms, the shear appears to be a little more relaxed this morning in the southern area of possible development.  I won't post a map, since Gomey's map is an updating shear map!


The GFS still thinks there is a window (albeit very tiny) between the bridging ridges for 92L to slip north.... it does do a little dance in the 06Z run as it tries to get to the upper gulf coast.

The Euro still says nono  you will not go north, you will go west sweet baby, west!!

The WPC is still in the GFS camp (at least as far as the precip plume)

avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1519
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:02 am

Nice job Gomey. The GFS/Euro model differences remind me of Debby from 2012. Euro wanted west, GFS wanted east. We shall see how the situation unfolds in the next 2-3 days.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 925
Reputation : 49
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:30 am

If this potential disturbance were to take the northerly route I suspect it'll be one of those sloppy systems heavily weighted with convection to the east and little to none on the western side per the zonal flow and shear gomey mentioned.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 925
Reputation : 49
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by sangria on Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:37 am

The latest sghetti models, GFS and Euro still disagree on the ridge...


avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1519
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:40 am

Gomey, "got ark"?
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 925
Reputation : 49
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:00 am

Nice little burst of convection overnight with 93L.




avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 925
Reputation : 49
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by sangria on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:04 am

8am TWO up to 90% on 93L for the 5 Day




Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles
east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands.  Some development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days before
environmental conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation.  This system is forecast to move to the west-northwest at
near 20 mph toward the Windward Islands and northeastern South
America during the next two days, and interests in these areas
should monitor its progress.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected while
it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula later
today and over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday, where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1519
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:07 am

Looks like I may have to do another update...LOL

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:07 am

Hmmm, not sure why that didn't work. Let me try this again.......


avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 925
Reputation : 49
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by sangria on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:11 am

gomexwx wrote:Looks like I may have to do another update...LOL

Morning Gomey!

You can do another or just update this one. :-)
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1519
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by sangria on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:13 am

850mb Vort is a mess on 93L, but damned if 92L doesn't have a nice one..

avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1519
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:16 am

92L is a low rider and needs latitude. The eastern CARB will stick a fork in it.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 925
Reputation : 49
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:19 am

Yea ,it either separates from the ITCZ or dies.

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:22 am

Well last might showed me one more thing..
any guesses?

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by sangria on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:27 am

The big picture...

avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1519
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:34 am

Since nobody guessed....I must blog

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:37 am

gomexwx wrote:Well last might showed me one more thing..
any guesses?

Low level convergence and upper level divergence? See, I read sometimes!
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 925
Reputation : 49
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:39 am

gomexwx wrote:Since nobody guessed....I must blog

LMAO, we're on a 15 minute timer?
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 925
Reputation : 49
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:51 am

The convergence and divergence was yesterday!!!...LOL

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:57 am

gomexwx wrote:The convergence and divergence was yesterday!!!...LOL

It was but that was your statement ..........."last night showed me one thing, any guesses".  I'll have to give you a san smack  lol
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 925
Reputation : 49
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:00 am

StAugustineFL wrote:
gomexwx wrote:Since nobody guessed....I must blog

LMAO, we're on a 15 minute timer?


Dang right!!! Things can go boom fast in the tropics....sometimes I spend time writing paragraphs of stuff only to do this
mad at pc because it changes before I finish.

Once all the ingredients are there it happens fast..AND we are getting close to that...

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:04 am

StAugustineFL wrote:
gomexwx wrote:The convergence and divergence was yesterday!!!...LOL

It was but that was your statement ..........."last night showed me one thing, any guesses".  I'll have to give you a san smack  lol


which means you get an "e" slap..yesterdays update was AT 1:00 PM so last night hadn't happened...lol.

wait for it...

e slap

I think San, is LHAO at us.....

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:02 am

Where this system ends up may depend on where it develops...Being a Broad area of Low pressure it could form anywhere...

I have a feeling it might form farther East than the forecast and this moves all projected paths East...

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:26 pm

DMAX/DMIN.

LMAO at the e slap I'm not hoping east but WTH, send it here. Nothing like mixing in a wet mess with a newborn baby on the way around that time frame.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 925
Reputation : 49
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:34 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:DMAX/DMIN.  

LMAO at the e slap  I'm not hoping east but WTH, send it here.  Nothing like mixing in a wet mess with a newborn baby on the way around that time frame.

Depending on the gender,atleast it will have a name IF the storm has one!

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:39 pm

Just in case we don't see this for awhile...I took everyone a picture:)

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:22 am

I updated the Blog for the Gulf disturbance.

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:49 pm

Updated the blog at 1:45 EDT

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by JRnOldsmar on Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:38 pm

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-FL125856973248.HydrologicOutlook.125856B4EE00FL.MOBESFMOB.c6be4c71b6efe982b0e0d94a013188e8 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 13:14 EDT on 06-19-2017
Effective: 13:14 EDT on 06-19-2017
Expires: 08:00 EDT on 06-21-2017

Event: Hydrologic Outlook
Alert: ...Multi-Day Heavy Rainfall Event Unfolding and Flooding Likely
for Portions of the Central Gulf Coast Region...
Between early tomorrow and late week, developing heavy rainfall
associated with a tropical plume of moisture will bring heavy
rainfall to portions of the Central Gulf Coast Region.
Before going into more specifics, first let`s discuss the soil
conditions and local stream flow rates. The ground is very wet.
Over the past two weeks, large portions of our area have received
5-10" of rain. This has resulted in rainfall that is 200-400% of
normal. Also, according to the latest USGS streamflow data,
discharge rates on area streams and creeks are above the 90th
percentile which is also averaging 200-400% of normal flow rates.
So, it will not take as much rain for flooding to begin, especially
on the flashier creeks and streams in our area. A few of our
smaller local rivers are currently experiencing minor flooding
over interior southeast Mississippi and the western Florida
Panhandle.
Current basin average rainfall forecasts are expected to be in
the 3-6" range, with isolated totals double that. Counties most
affected at this point look to be the Alabama coastal counties
(possibly including Escambia County Alabama), the extreme western
Florida Panhandle Counties, and most of interior southeastern
Mississippi. The forecast is the very latest but is subject to
change.
Flash Flooding is also likely, especially where heavier rainbands
set up and train over the same locations. Flash flooding occurs
when there is a rapid response to a large amount of rainfall in
less than a six hour period.
Confidence is high that if this amount of rainfall is realized,
most of our area rivers will easily experience minor flooding and
some possibly moderate flooding.
Please also realize, that while flash flooding may come to an end
by week`s end, river flooding could very well extend days beyond
that.
A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued later this afternoon and
will be updated periodically with the very latest information.

Instructions:
Target Area:
FLZ201
FLZ202
FLZ203
FLZ204
FLZ205
FLZ206


Forecast Office: NWS Mobile (Mobile - Pensacola)
avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 361
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:49 pm

JRnOldsmar wrote:Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-FL125856973248.HydrologicOutlook.125856B4EE00FL.MOBESFMOB.c6be4c71b6efe982b0e0d94a013188e8 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 13:14 EDT on 06-19-2017
Effective: 13:14 EDT on 06-19-2017
Expires: 08:00 EDT on 06-21-2017

Event: Hydrologic Outlook
Alert: ...Multi-Day Heavy Rainfall Event Unfolding and Flooding Likely
for Portions of the Central Gulf Coast Region...
Between early tomorrow and late week, developing heavy rainfall
associated with a tropical plume of moisture will bring heavy
rainfall to portions of the Central Gulf Coast Region.
Before going into more specifics, first let`s discuss the soil
conditions and local stream flow rates. The ground is very wet.
Over the past two weeks, large portions of our area have received
5-10" of rain. This has resulted in rainfall that is 200-400% of
normal. Also, according to the latest USGS streamflow data,
discharge rates on area streams and creeks are above the 90th
percentile which is also averaging 200-400% of normal flow rates.
So, it will not take as much rain for flooding to begin, especially
on the flashier creeks and streams in our area. A few of our
smaller local rivers are currently experiencing minor flooding
over interior southeast Mississippi and the western Florida
Panhandle.
Current basin average rainfall forecasts are expected to be in
the 3-6" range, with isolated totals double that. Counties most
affected at this point look to be the Alabama coastal counties
(possibly including Escambia County Alabama), the extreme western
Florida Panhandle Counties, and most of interior southeastern
Mississippi. The forecast is the very latest but is subject to
change.
Flash Flooding is also likely, especially where heavier rainbands
set up and train over the same locations. Flash flooding occurs
when there is a rapid response to a large amount of rainfall in
less than a six hour period.
Confidence is high that if this amount of rainfall is realized,
most of our area rivers will easily experience minor flooding and
some possibly moderate flooding.
Please also realize, that while flash flooding may come to an end
by week`s end, river flooding could very well extend days beyond
that.
A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued later this afternoon and
will be updated periodically with the very latest information.

Instructions:  
Target Area:
FLZ201
FLZ202
FLZ203
FLZ204
FLZ205
FLZ206


Forecast Office: NWS Mobile (Mobile - Pensacola)


Thar be those copious amounts!!
I'm on a hill 200ft above sea level, wont even need a boat, I have already got 11.90 inches of rain for June whats 10 more???...LOL

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:54 pm

lol Gomey... Good luck!

BillsfaninSoFla

Posts : 417
Reputation : 40
Join date : 2017-03-05

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by sangria on Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:05 pm

LMAO...I was truly LOLing at the e slap s
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1519
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:10 pm

Damn at those rain totals. You may as well go for 20" for June.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 925
Reputation : 49
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by sangria on Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:13 pm

So much for your garden Gomey! You'll be waving as the corn stalks float past ya!!
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1519
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:37 pm

The squash has already suffered blight,it was due in June..it flowers and dies..Its past peak harvest on it. The greens suffered also. The tomato's are green but need sun. The corn with all the rain and clouds only 1/2 develops...So last hope the flowering green beans...LOL.

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:30 pm

That's a shame about the crops Gomey. Nothing better than homegrown goodies.

BillsfaninSoFla

Posts : 417
Reputation : 40
Join date : 2017-03-05

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:48 pm

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City,
Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of Intracoastal City
to High Island, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Intracoastal City to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by JRnOldsmar on Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:54 am

000
WTNT43 KNHC 201436
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday,
but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears
to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy
42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer
to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being
maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system
could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later
today.

The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on
continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is
forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical
shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off
the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the
there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a
mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a
better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered
generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts
with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more
north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve
around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows
the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by
48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the
mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across
the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central
Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain
hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 361
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by JRnOldsmar on Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:58 am

avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 361
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:15 am

So far light to moderate rain . I am at 0.12 inches.
I am in that red circle...LOL

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:21 am

The window is closed for this to be a tropical system..since it gained Latitude and is North of the Tropic of Cancer (23.5)it would be classified a sub-tropical storm..should it develop.

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:51 pm

Thanks for the updates Gomey. Yes, one would think TWC announcers could properly pronounce Mobeel. Smile

BillsfaninSoFla

Posts : 417
Reputation : 40
Join date : 2017-03-05

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by JRnOldsmar on Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:52 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite imagery, aircraft data, and surface observations indicate
that the low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico has
acquired a well-defined center, and is now Tropical Storm Cindy, the
third tropical storm of 2017.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
centered near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. Cindy has
been stationary for the past few hours, but the system is expected
to resume a motion toward the northwest at around 10 mph (17 km/h)
later today, and this motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early
Thursday. On the forecast track, Cindy is expected to approach
the coast of southwest Louisiana late Wednesday or Wednesday night,
and move inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before the system
reaches the coast on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km),
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today and spread westward
within the warning area through Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected
farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through
Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 361
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:53 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks for the updates Gomey.  Yes, one would think TWC announcers could properly pronounce Mobeel. Smile

the afternoon crew is doing better....maybe the geographic inept only work mornings:)

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:57 pm

JR, Glad the NHC thinks it will resume Northwest...With the ULL still south Of Texas I am skeptical.

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by JRnOldsmar on Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:04 pm

gomexwx wrote:JR, Glad the NHC thinks it will resume Northwest...With the ULL still south Of Texas I am skeptical.

...and when she stops in her tracks... something's going on...
avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 361
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by gomexwx on Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:08 pm

JRnOldsmar wrote:
gomexwx wrote:JR, Glad the NHC thinks it will resume Northwest...With the ULL still south Of Texas I am skeptical.

...and when she stops in her tracks...  something's going on...

You know it!

_________________
Never ever leave me alone in a blog lmao
avatar
gomexwx

Posts : 571
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-16
Location : On an Acre somewhere on the gulf Coast

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by sangria on Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:15 pm

Ooooh..... y'all have been busy over here!!!

Gomey, I wish I could take some of your rain. I watched the PSU radar this morning and kept "east-casting"

avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1519
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Tropical Storm Cindy 6/21/17 Cindy Kills 10yr old on Alabama Coast

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum