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Weather Round-up

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Weather Round-up

Post by emcf30 on Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:42 am

Tropical Update

Outside of a tropical disturbance near Florida with little chance for development, the Atlantic basin is still quiet as we head into the final full week of July. Tropical moisture pushing towards the Gulf Coast will set the stage for scattered heavy downpours from the Florida peninsula to Houston.

The National Hurricane Center gives this blob a near 0% chance of development at this time. Thunderstorm activity really has decreased overnight and the pressures are currently way to High in the region.



With daytime heating and the deep moisture in place from this Tropical wave, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida peninsula



In the Eastern Pacific, yet another tropical storm expected to form this week. Currently, the National Hurricane Center shows an area of interest in the Eastern Pacific has the chance of development at 90%. If development does occur as expected, the storm would be named Gilma.



Saharan Dust Layer

Copious amounts of dust and sand particles continue to blow off the Sahara Desert in northern Africa and west across the ocean. This has been the main limiting factor the lack of tropical development and activity. The dry, sinking air thanks to the concentration of dust, has kept a large portion of the Atlantic cloud free and making it impossible for any tropical cyclone formation to take place. Once the current tropical wave moves through Florida, the moisture will be replaced by another round of dry, dust filled skies. This next round will be the largest concentration of dust that has made it across the Atlantic so far this year


This special satellite image shows dry, dusty air (in yellow and red) blowing off the African continent into the Atlantic Ocean. (University of Wisconsin-CIMSS/NOAA)

Severe Weather Outlook

A potent upper air disturbance will track quickly across the Great Lakes on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.
This disturbance will tap into very hot and muggy air as temperatures will rise well into the 90's ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop with the heating of the day farther east from eastern Michigan to western New York.
Storms will become strong to severe with the biggest threat for damaging wind gusts and hail.



...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/SERN MT INTO WRN
SD...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT OVER NRN TIER OF U.S. BY
SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH BELT OF WLYS ACROSS SRN CANADA.
FEATURES OF INTEREST INCLUDE A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
SWRN ONTARIO THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SERN ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST AN UPPER LOW OVER NWRN WA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ENEWD INTO SRN ALBERTA AND NWRN MT. A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE INTO WRN AND CNTRL MT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH SRN QUEBEC...THE
GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN NY MONDAY EVENING. TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL FROM SD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AREA.

...ERN GREAT LAKES...ERN OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES...

DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S EXIST IN WARM SECTOR OVER MUCH OF
THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE EML WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THIS REGION WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION DUE TO
WEAK CAP SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO GENERALLY AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG.
NEVERTHELESS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS...AND SCATTERED MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MIGHT POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT MIGHT EVOLVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM ERN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NRN NY AND POSSIBLY A
PART OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL JET WITHIN BASE OF SEWD
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT OVER SRN ONTARIO
AND ADVANCE INTO NY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

...WRN OH VALLEY THROUGH WRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

EML WILL EXIST ABOVE MOIST AXIS RESIDING IN VICINITY OF STALLED
FRONT FROM ERN SD THROUGH WRN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN
A CAP. DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE. THE FRONT WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER WLYS
WITH 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. PRIMARY CONCERN IS EXTENT OF STORM
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF A CAP.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG HEATING AND MIXING WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE CAP
NEAR FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. STORM COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF FRONT. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS/MCS AND ADVANCE SEWD WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND.

...CNTRL AND ERN MT THROUGH WRN SD...

STEADY HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MT MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH.
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW/WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MT
ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL MT AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING EASTERN WY/WESTERN SD.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STORMS THAT COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.


Last edited by emcf30 on Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:23 am; edited 3 times in total
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Re: Weather Round-up

Post by Tropic Bunker on Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:58 am

Great read as usual e! Looks like we are going to be quiet in the near future. ☀
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Re: Weather Round-up

Post by sangria on Mon Jul 23, 2012 7:02 am

Nice new blog e...Thanks!!!!

I guess the blob watching was fun while it lasted.......and it certainly gave us the chance to pick your and Gomey's brains, yesterday in the chat room!! Y'all were great.....thanks for having patience with us, laughing, and being such great teachers!!!
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Re: Weather Round-up

Post by GrillinInTheEye on Mon Jul 23, 2012 7:21 am

Thanks for the Blog E. Even I could understand it.

Great job!
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Re: Weather Round-up

Post by emcf30 on Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:28 am

Yep Tropic, it might not be until the end of August before we see out next named system. I have nothing to base this on except a hunch, which means nothing ion the weather world.

San, Your welcome. The little session on convergence and divergence was fun. hopefully everyone has a slight better understanding of the subject now.

Grill, Thank you. I aim to please. LOL
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SAL Animation

Post by sangria on Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:36 am

looks like the area of SAL is lessening.....

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Re: Weather Round-up

Post by sangria on Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:51 am

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Re: Weather Round-up

Post by sangria on Mon Jul 23, 2012 9:08 am

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Re: Weather Round-up

Post by emcf30 on Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:01 am

The blob

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Re: Weather Round-up

Post by sangria on Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:13 am

Not much of a blob !!!
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Re: Weather Round-up

Post by sangria on Mon Jul 23, 2012 1:43 pm

48 hour futurecast with rainfall prediction....

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Re: Weather Round-up

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