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CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

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CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:14 am

NWS tampa..........Aug 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms during the morning hours will be over the coastal
waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with storms developing onshore by
midday. Higher chances for storms will move further inland with
time during the afternoon and early evening hours. Any storms will
be capable of gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning...however no organized severe weather is expected. The
main threat from any storms will be localized flooding due to the
slow movement of the storms today.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:17 am


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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:19 am

Good Sunday Morning Folks!!...it may turn out like yesterday,storms on the gulf side moving inland during the day..good luck on the rain folks!............well Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy!..have a great day everyone!

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:35 am

folks around the 22nd-23rd we need to watch carefully this new wave that came off Africa..most models develop it and have it near florida....way too early yet to believe but..we Are coming up to the peak of season and it seems things will be getting very active, tropics wise.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:50 am

LargoFL wrote:folks around the 22nd-23rd we need to watch carefully this new wave that came off Africa..most models develop it and have it near florida....way too early yet to believe but..we Are coming up to the peak of season and it seems things will be getting very active, tropics wise.

Morning Largo and all.

My cloud did produce a little yesterday. Got .11 out of it. It's rained 9 of 12 days but generally the nickel/dime variety with a total of 1.86"

We have TD8 but it is of no threat.

Yeah, that wave will bear watching. GFS, Euro, CMC all develop it and have it taking the low road. They are also eerily close on placement being 10 days out. Here is each model at 240 hours.

CMC


GFS


Euro


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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by sangria on Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:05 am

Good Morning everyone! I ended up with 1" in the bucket yesterday. I was hoping for more early AM rains to cool the air down here. I enjoyed working in the yard yesterday after the rain stopped.

Hmm... Those models on that wave are kind of interesting, where is our shear dammit!!
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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:13 am

sangria wrote:Good Morning everyone!  I ended up with 1" in the bucket yesterday.  I was hoping for more early AM rains to cool the air down here.  I enjoyed working in the yard yesterday after the rain stopped.

Hmm...  Those models on that wave are kind of interesting, where is our shear dammit!!

I give to you The Chart.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:46 am

Our system to watch is now an invest.



Just exiting Africa and looking good.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:07 am

StAugustineFL wrote:
sangria wrote:




Amen Sister!!!    

I couldn't stand by and let this go.  I fixed it for ya.
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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:10 am

My bloodline personally favors the Red Raiders out in that part of the country.  Both parents and little sis worked there. I was in Lubbock for 6 years.
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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:34 am

StAugustineFL wrote:
LargoFL wrote:folks around the 22nd-23rd we need to watch carefully this new wave that came off Africa..most models develop it and have it near florida....way too early yet to believe but..we Are coming up to the peak of season and it seems things will be getting very active, tropics wise.

Morning Largo and all.

My cloud did produce a little yesterday.  Got .11 out of it.  It's rained 9 of 12 days but generally the nickel/dime variety with a total of 1.86"

We have TD8 but it is of no threat.

Yeah, that wave will bear watching.  GFS, Euro, CMC all develop it and have it taking the low road.  They are also eerily close on placement being 10 days out.  Here is each model at 240 hours.

CMC


GFS


Euro


yeah Aug especially Billsfan's area to begin with huh..then we would see where its headed..right now GFS has it coming in around the Carolina's I think but way too soon to believe anything..but..its a great time for everyone to check their supplies and prep plans etc.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:35 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Our system to watch is now an invest.



Just exiting Africa and looking good.

gee already huh..we need to keep a very close eye on this one

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:36 am

well just after 9 30am and I can hear some distant thunder..no rain by me so far this morning yet.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:46 am

this model has it going into the panhandle around the 24-25th.....................

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:48 am

and this model has it going into Jacksonville and lower Georgia..too early yet to know....

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:51 am

and GFS has it going into south Carolina.................................................

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:55 am

well from the Carolina's southward its wise to go over your storm plans and preps..just in case.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:56 am

and funny thing..there are 3-4 lows that will be following this latest one...an active time tropical wise folks.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:41 am

looks like JR is getting a lil rain right now,still no rain by me so far..maybe later............

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:44 am

maybe WD might get some rain today also up there..showers moving in from the gulf this morning.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:49 am

LargoFL wrote:looks like JR is getting a lil rain right now,still no rain by me so far..maybe later............

Good luck, Largo. 0.6 yesterday morning, half, to an inch, just now.
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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:57 am

JRnOldsmar wrote:
LargoFL wrote:looks like JR is getting a lil rain right now,still no rain by me so far..maybe later............

Good luck, Largo.  0.6 yesterday morning, half, to an inch, just now.

I find it fascinating how quickly the rain can add up with a cell only a few miles wide.
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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:18 am

Good morning. I wish we'd get some rain today.

Thanks Gomey (?) for the invite to the NCAA pool.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:33 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:
JRnOldsmar wrote:
LargoFL wrote:looks like JR is getting a lil rain right now,still no rain by me so far..maybe later............

Good luck, Largo.  0.6 yesterday morning, half, to an inch, just now.

I find it fascinating how quickly the rain can add up with a cell only a few miles wide.  
yeah I guess it also matters how long the cell stays in one place too.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:34 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning.  I wish we'd get some rain today.  

Thanks Gomey (?)    for the invite to the NCAA pool.  
good morning Billsfan..good luck down there..no rain by me so far.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:17 pm

JRnOldsmar wrote:
LargoFL wrote:looks like JR is getting a lil rain right now,still no rain by me so far..maybe later............

Good luck, Largo.  0.6 yesterday morning, half, to an inch, just now.
thanks JR,not a drop here by me gee

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:18 pm

Billsfan stay alert in about 8-9-10 days from now..Euro is sticking to this path...

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:19 pm

lets see what the models are saying about 91 this time next weekend.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:28 pm

models are pretty much together bringing a TS or hurricane close to south florida in about 9-10 days,we need to pay attention to any changes in path.it could very well cross florida to the panhandle huh..this time of year I watch every single storm coming this way,i hope everyone does also

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by sangria on Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:30 pm

JRnOldsmar wrote:
StAugustineFL wrote:
sangria wrote:




Amen Sister!!!    

I couldn't stand by and let this go.  I fixed it for ya.

lmao
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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:32 pm

they upped its chances now to 30%,stay tuned..............................................TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eight, located several hundred miles southwest of
Bermuda.

1. An area of disturbed weather located to the southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave. The wave is
forecast to merge with a broad area of low pressure located
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a day or two. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development of
this system later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:34 pm

and yet another one forming right behind 91..season is getting active folks........

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:04 pm

I know models change and in this case I hope so!

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:35 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:I know models change and in this case I hope so!

Amen sister! wink, wink nudge, nudge JR!
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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:12 am

NWS Tampa.........Mon Aug 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms during the morning hours will be over the coastal
waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with storms developing onshore by
midday. Higher chances for storms will move further inland with
time during the afternoon and early evening hours. Any storms will
be capable of gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning...however no organized severe weather is expected.


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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:15 am

Good Monday Morning Folks!!...well it seems some drier air is moving in today..only a 30% chance here in my area per nws.....and tropical wise..models are all over the place but still build up tropical systems..still too early yet to believe anything ok....well Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy...have a great day everyone!

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:06 am

NWS Miami....mon 8/14.........Today: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 102. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 81. South wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:16 am

I'm wodering,at what strength of hurricane would you..consider evacuating your home??...i'd stick it out thru..oh cat 3 I guess...now a 4-5 i'd have to see if it was forecasted to come right over my area,if so..i'd be watching the news from somewhere north LOL..how about you folks? for myself, I'm not worried at all about storm surge, I'm high enough..its the really strong damaging winds i'm concerned with...no fun being hunkered down in your home with the roof etc being blown off huh..could be..life threatening huh.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by waterdipper on Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:26 am

A lot of scattered showers around this weekend and even this AM. However, my shield held on and I only got a trace. Now if the mosquitos would leave I would be thrilled.

Largo, If a hurricane is coming up here, I leave regardless of strength. You can replace your home and belongings, you can't replace your life or the life of one of your family members. And even if you survive it, why would you put yourself or a loved one through that? It isn't like you are going to protect your property in any form or fashion during a storm. Hopefully we don't have to go through this anytime soon.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:22 am

waterdipper wrote:A lot of scattered showers around this weekend and even this AM. However, my shield held on and I only got a trace. Now if the mosquitos would leave I would be thrilled.

Largo, If a hurricane is coming up here, I leave regardless of strength. You can replace your home and belongings, you can't replace your life or the life of one of your family members. And even if you survive it, why would you put yourself or a loved one through that? It isn't like you are going to protect your property in any form or fashion during a storm. Hopefully we don't have to go through this anytime soon.
yes your right of course, ive been here just about 40 years now in the same place and ive yet to see a hurricane come right over my house,so I guess what they say about our shield is kinda true..old timers keep saying hurricanes always go somewhere else or..lose their punch before they get here......me myself..i don't want to see a hurricane coming over my house lol..

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:24 am

LargoFL wrote:I'm wodering,at what strength of hurricane would you..consider evacuating your home??...i'd stick it out thru..oh cat 3 I guess...now a 4-5 i'd have to see if it was forecasted to come right over my area,if so..i'd be watching the news from somewhere north LOL..how about you folks? for myself, I'm not worried at all about storm surge, I'm high enough..its the really strong damaging winds i'm concerned with...no fun being hunkered down in your home with the roof etc being blown off huh..could be..life threatening huh.

I am inland where the surge is a non issue. But I am on a ridge meaning when the beast come's ashore I get slammed since winds increase with altitude. I have been in numerous hurricanes from CAT 1 to CAT 5. When a hurricane becomes a major it don't matter the CAT Number, at any given time these storms can slam you with gust as high as 200mph. A CAT 3-4 did more damage to my house than any of the CAT5s..A CAT 3 put three trees through my walls and roof of a brick home. I stay for all of them but I recommend you leave when a storm reaches CAT3. Remember if you plan to evacuate LEAVE EARLY! or you may ride out a major in a car...NOT GOOD!

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:25 am

you see this front,pushing towards the east coast? this is what might save us in 9-10 days time..

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:28 am

well overnight Euro model puts a Hurricane in the gulf,where she goes,no one knows lol..

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:32 am

well we have many days, maybe 9-10 days to watch for whatever happens with 91L...it COULD BE..it goes the way of 99L..up the east coast and out of here..or..could be trouble for Florida to Texas...way too early to know yet..lets see..IF..it does form and go to hurricane first and see then..what the models are saying maybe this coming weekend they will have a better idea. but its up to a 60% chance now per NHC..

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:41 am

well I got this from another weather site..remember Nothing can be believed just yet ok..

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:43 am

ok too much from me lol..BBL..

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:50 pm

LargoFL wrote:ok too much from me lol..BBL..

No, it's not too much from you! I look forward to popping in and checking for the updates you provide. I don't know where to look for most of the stuff you post and I don't have the chance to look around for that stuff.

PLEASE keep posting Largo, especially when we have something out there to track.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:41 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:
LargoFL wrote:ok too much from me lol..BBL..

No, it's not too much from you!   I look forward to popping in and checking for the updates you provide.  I don't know where to look for most of the stuff you post and I don't have the chance to look around for that stuff.

PLEASE keep posting Largo, especially when we have something out there to track.  
ok thanks and will do, I know most folks here are working thru the daytime hours so I try to keep the blog going, especially in the stormy days. next few weeks tropical wise looks to be very active storm wise..maybe one after the other whew...im really hoping this 91 soon to be Harvey, does what 99L did..recurve back out into the Atlantic..it could be a strong one once it gets close to us.

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:44 pm

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined
circulation in the low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles,
with the center near a cluster of sheared, but strong, convection.
The aircraft data suggest that the maximum winds are near 35 kt
and that the central pressure is near 1004 mb. Based on these
data, the disturbance is upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey.

The initial motion is 270/16. There is no change to the forecast
philosophy since the previous advisory. A deep-layer ridge to the
north of the system should steer it quickly just north of due west
through the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the
system through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean
Sea in 12-24 h, into the central Caribbean by 48-72 h, and to the
western Caribbean by 96-120 h. One adjustment is that the 96-120 h
points have been nudged a little southward in response to a shift in
the guidance, and thus now lie closer to Central America than on
the previous forecast. The forecast track again lies near the
center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and the various
consensus models.

The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and
the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should
continue through at least 72 h. The conflicting forecast scenarios
alluded to in the previous advisory remain, with the SHIPS and
LGEM models still showing steady intensification while the GFS and
ECMWF models still forecast degeneration to an easterly wave over
the central Caribbean. The new intensity forecast again follows the
trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it remains on the low side of
the guidance envelope out of respect for the GFS/ECMWF. The 96-120 h
intensities have been decreased a little due to the forecast track
showing more land interaction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 13.0N 55.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.1N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 13.4N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 13.7N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 14.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 17.0N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


Last edited by LargoFL on Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Post by LargoFL on Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:46 pm

well just after 5pm here and its HOT and HUMID lol..no rain by me so far.........good night everyone


Last edited by LargoFL on Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

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