CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

sangria wrote:If y'all don't have the link, this is the NASA streaming page.  It is pretty cool....

https://www.nasa.gov/eclipselive/#NASA+TV+Public+Channel

thanks San..its a cool site alright to watch it.

ok Billsfan, 18Z runs are in..dont take your eyes off 92,hope no surprises ok....................

another site with tracks for 92.................................................................

ok now the question is when and how strong 92 will get,im for sure watching it if it gets into the gulf,water temps are 90 degree's..

Thanks san, I was popping in/out of the NASA site on my work laptop.  Some cool views.

No eclipse here.  Rained on/off for hours.  I received .95" but if I drove 1 mile north or west totals were around 3".  Storm kept backbuilding over the same areas as they drifting northward.

Largo, this is from Jacksonville's PM discussion. First time I've seen them mention 92L but I only check the pre-dawn and mid afternoon updates from them.

Long-range models still struggling with handling of slow moving
disturbance over the SE Bahamas that will track slowly NW and
possibly develop into a weak TC by late in the week into the
weekend off the Florida East Coast and track NE of the region by
by early next week. At this time it appears as though NE FL/SE GA
will be on the North or Northwest side of this circulation with
surface Northeast flow developing off the Atlantic and while this
will keep abundant moisture over the region with at least
scattered to numerous showers and storms mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours and mainly along the coast. Higher
confidence that daytime maximum temps will come down from the
lower 90s on Friday to the mid/upper 80s over the weekend into
early next week. Much lower confidence in the organization of any
heavy rainfall bands that may impact the region especially along
the coast but it remains a possibility and will need to be
monitored, with higher chances if a more significant TC develops.

StAugustineFL wrote:Largo, this is from Jacksonville's PM discussion.  First time I've seen them mention 92L but I only check the pre-dawn and mid afternoon updates from them.

Long-range models still struggling with handling of slow moving
disturbance over the SE Bahamas that will track slowly NW and
possibly develop into a weak TC by late in the week into the
weekend off the Florida East Coast and track NE of the region by
by early next week. At this time it appears as though NE FL/SE GA
will be on the North or Northwest side of this circulation with
surface Northeast flow developing off the Atlantic and while this
will keep abundant moisture over the region with at least
scattered to numerous showers and storms mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours and mainly along the coast. Higher
confidence that daytime maximum temps will come down from the
lower 90s on Friday to the mid/upper 80s over the weekend into
early next week. Much lower confidence in the organization of any
heavy rainfall bands that may impact the region especially along
the coast but it remains a possibility and will need to be
monitored, with higher chances if a more significant TC develops.

ok thanks Aug,..Euro and Gfs aren't any help with 92, they are right there..its CMC and a few other models that do bring it into florida then back again from the gulf...right now I guess its still up in the air..we'll see tomorrow what they say as it gets closer...like Billsfan said earlier..Katrina wasn't anything but a wave till it got where 92 is going...right into that area between the Bahamas and florida..that's where the warm gulf stream waters flow......im sure hoping its nothing but a good rain event.

NHC is saying both henry and 92 are encountering strong wind shear today, lets see tomorrow what happens

LargoFL wrote:

sangria wrote:If y'all don't have the link, this is the NASA streaming page.  It is pretty cool....

https://www.nasa.gov/eclipselive/#NASA+TV+Public+Channel

thanks San..its a cool site alright to watch it.

Thanks San. My hubby has a welding mask at his shop so we were watching it through that.

LargoFL wrote:one thing is kinda certain, south florida will get some much needed rainfall if this does come ashore.

The radio weather guy says he thinks it's going to rain all week because and 92 and a stalled "cold" front coming down the state. I could use some rain, but certainly don't want it to rain all week.

LOL at the 12Z Euro. Brings ex Harvey NW through south TX to about San Antonio, makes a hard turn due east, hugs the TX coast scraping Houston, sends it to NOLA, then accelerates to the northeast

LOL Aug. Imagine the hysteria on Master's' blog?

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:LOL Aug.  Imagine the hysteria on Master's' blog?

I rarely check the blogs there these days as I hate the Disquis format they converted to but now I'll have to pop in.

StAugustineFL wrote:LOL at the 12Z Euro.  Brings ex Harvey NW through south TX to about San Antonio, makes a hard turn due east, hugs the TX coast scraping Houston, sends it to NOLA, then accelerates to the northeast

yeah texas coastal area's might be cathing the brunt of whatever is left of henry...then again once in the BOC it could regenerate once again..waters very warm there also whew

in 9-10 days henry heading towards florida? LOL..ok just kidding LOL

hmmm wait now..eastern Panhandle isn't That far away huh...go away henry LOL....

Folks..finally NWS Tampa is mentioning 92 ..(clipped from mon 3.51 discussion).....................The forecast remains highly uncertain with respect to the
tropical low/easterly wave expected to move across the
southern tip of Florida or Florida Straits. This feature is
currently being affected by an area of drier air and weak
wind shear, which is good because it limits the potential
for this feature to strengthen into a tropical cyclone.
However, conditions may become slightly more favorable by
Wednesday. So if this low makes it into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, it will have to be monitored closely. Given the
feature is generally being poorly resolved, models vary in
its position over the next 72 hours, with some solutions
showing it over the Gulf and others just of the east coast
of Florida. In the current forecast, we expect the low to
track across south Florida, bringing greatly increased rain
chances to areas along and south of I-4. The most recent
guidance shows this low will remain a relevant feature
through the latter half of the week as it slowly meanders
either over south Florida, or just off the southwest Florida
coast. It goes without saying, this will need to be watched
closely for potential tropical development. At the very
least, this feature will maintain high rain chances each day
as deep tropical moisture mingles with the seabreezes and
daytime heating. Locally heavy rainfall may also become a
concern, especially south of I-4 where the greatest QPF
signal is apparent.

well some weather sites are mentioning once 92 gets closer to Florida there's a better chance for development..just too early yet and the main models..Euro and GFS are no help just yet...all we can do is hope for some good rain without any of the damaging winds huh and so far it seems like the Heavy many days long rain event would be I-4 southward as 92 is supposedly going to meander around for several days down there, guess its the cold front coming that will hinder its fast get out of Florida...still all we can do is wait this out and see each day what happens....in some area's over the 5 days could be 4 inches + of rain

anyone remember Wilma in 2005? ..well over 4300 days since a cat-3 hit us.....came up from where Henry is now huh...........

well here's 92L infrared pic.......................................................................

Wow Largo. Wilma seems like yesterday to me.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Wow Largo.  Wilma seems like yesterday to me.

yeah we've been so lucky for years now huh

92 looks pretty good on infrared.

yeah it seems we are going to experience it in Florida Billsfan........................

well my eyes are getting tired.......good night folks..........................

Sure looks that way Largo. Yuck

Nite Largo. Thank you for everything.

here is what they are saying about 92..nite billsfan......................................ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with the remnants of Harvey, but the system still lacks a
well-defined center of circulation. Some development of this
disturbance is still possible before it reaches the coast of Belize
or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The system is forecast to
move into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday, where environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for redevelopment into a
tropical cyclone. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across Honduras,
Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

TV weather guy says to expect rain all week due to 92/the mess near Cuba/ and the front coming down. Oh joy

Just had a round of squally rain. Nothing violent, but low rumbles of thunder, minimal lightning, 3/4 inch rain. I'll say 20 mph wind gusts. I'm really not good at that though.

Well here near Charleston, we were lucky to catch a couple of minutes of the eclipse start.



The rest was clouds, sprinkles and light rain.  A very beneficial inch total.

Good family times.  Always a good study of fluid dynamics.

Jax tomorrow, then Tampa. Hopefully, I can get some rains started by then. It's dry at the homestead.

Good luck BillsFan. I'll take some or all of those rain days, if you don't mind.

well this early Tuesday morning,92L in the model runs still comes into Florida..........

Billsfan a lil good news maybe.........................................
2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of
low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited. Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur while it moves west-northwestward, and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development by the weekend when the system begins to move
northeastward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown

well this early tues morning,it looks like 92 will just be a south Florida rain event,they don't think it will develop until it goes back to the ATL and up the east coast northward....so far anyway.

yeah even CMC says just a heavy rain maker until back into the atlantic then builds up going northward up the east coast of the USA...we may have lucked out..so far anyway.

Good Early Tuesday Morning folks!......not much weather news other than 92 later this week..still looking for some good rain here by me..getting very dry here........well Blogs Coffee is set to perk for when you get here...enjoy...have a great day everyone!

anyone have family or friends in texas? most models have a Hurricane in there this weekend..

Good Luck down there Billsfan..a lot of rain coming NWS is saying.................................NWS Miami...
This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip Currents: There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents along the east
coast beaches of South Florida today and tonight.

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
across south Florida, and the coastal waters today. The primary
impacts will be lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Periods of rain and thunderstorms are expected through the end of
the week. The primary threats from thunderstorms will be heavy rain,
lightning strikes, and brief gusty winds.

Most locations will see a least to 2 to 4 inches of rain this week,
with locally heavier amounts. This may be sufficient to cause local
flooding problems. There is a reasonable threat of minor flooding of
streets and poor drainage areas. Ponding of water may lead to brief
lane closures affecting travel.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

whew..with these High] temps..we sure could use some of those 4 inch rains here too please wow.............................................

and NWS Melbourne.........TUE AUG 22 2017

.NOW...

...Widely Scattered Showers for the Treasure Coast...

East Central Florida will experience an increase in moisture over
the next few days as a tropical wave transitions west of the
forecast area leaving the door open to maritime winds and increasing
atmospheric moisture. The best chances for rain today will be south
of the Interstate 4 corridor...especially for the Treasure Coast.
This morning...widely scattered showers will move onshore from Vero
Beach southward to Stuart and West Balm Beach...and reach inland to
Lake Okeechobee. High temperatures later today will be in the lower
to middle 90s.


&&

Additional details...including graphics are available online at:
http://www.weather.gov/mlb/blog

$$

DWS

well so far this looks to be a south of I-4 rain event...i'll keep watching it ok...BBL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1024 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Weak high pressure ridging across the northern half of the
area with a weak tropical wave just offshore of the SE FL
coast today. Some drier air remains across the Nature Coast,
while moisture is quickly returning across the central and
southern zones. This will keep limited rain chances across
the northern zones for this afternoon, and allow for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop later across
the central and southern areas, with the highest chances
across the south. Generally easterly winds will be in place,
with a weak sea breeze turning winds to the north late this
afternoon near the coast. Highs expected in the lower to mid
90s with feels-like temperatures 100-105. Current forecast
is on track and have no update planned.

&&

well so far just a rain event Billsfan...NHC lowered the chance for development down to 30% and I'm guessing that is after it crosses back over florida into the ATL

The sun has been out here all morning. It is humid!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:The sun has been out here all morning.  It is humid!

yes same here, hot and very humid...NWS Miami has flooding concerns for most of southern Florida thru this week,not good for Biz I guess but at least it wont be a strong tropical storm etc huh..drive safe ok down there once it begins.

Gome..Alabama etc may get the left overs from Harvey after he's done with Texas....