Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

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Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sat Sep 02, 2017 3:12 pm

So, I had planned to do a new "Main" blog and post all of the graphics and info related to our current tropical potential.   Then I read Mike Buresh's post, who is a met from ActionNewsJax out of Jacksonville, FL.   I thought, well hell!!  He has everything there I was going to post except for a few other graphics (which I will post), so why not just link his post here instead.

He was thorough with his posted graphics and his thoughts right now, so enjoy the read.  Very Happy

Talking the Tropics with Mike

Thanks for the link Aug.... wanted to post this up here so that it was at the top if anyone opens the first page....

Water Vapor Loop that will update - to watch the trough  :-)



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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Sep 02, 2017 3:28 pm

woot Mike Buresh post! Levi has a new tidbit out.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sat Sep 02, 2017 3:39 pm

The latest model runs...

Euro 12Z



GFS 12Z
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sat Sep 02, 2017 3:40 pm

GFS is of course liking the wave coming off of Africa as well.   Hello Gomey!
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:12 am

The latest cone has a slight adjustment west (not much, but it's there)....   NHC noted that they are slightly east of the models and further adjustments may be needed.  Irma is going to be a nail biter for the Lesser Antilles.  Also to note, she has dropped to 18N.






Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

Irma's convective pattern has improved slightly overnight.  Very
cold cloud tops completely encircle the eye, which has warmed and
become a bit clearer in infrared satellite images.  The initial
intensity is raised to 100 kt based on a blend of the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.

Irma has been losing latitude since yesterday due to strong high
pressure to its north, and the initial motion is now west-
southwestward, or 255/13 kt.  The hurricane is likely to continue
moving on this trajectory for the next 36 hours, after which time it
should gradually turn toward the west and then west-northwest on
days 3-5 when it reaches the western extent of the ridge.  The new
NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one during the
first 48 hours, showing Irma bottoming out around 16.5N.  However,
the track guidance has shifted westward after 48 hours, delaying a
turn toward the west-northwest, and this required a corresponding
westward shift in the official forecast toward the multi-model
consensus at the end of the forecast period.  It should be noted
that the official forecast still lies to the east of some of the
better-performing models, such as the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA, so
additional adjustment are possible in subsequent advisories.

The environment ahead of Irma appears conducive for gradual
strengthening for at least the next 2 to 3 days, with increasing sea
surface temperatures and a moistening in the mid-levels of the
atmosphere.  We may still observe fluctuations in intensity, but
overall, the model guidance seems to suggest a general upward
trend with a peak in intensity possibly occurring around day 3.
This type of intensification would coincide with the timing of
Irma's west-southwest to westward motion, a pattern which we have
observed in other west-southwestward-moving hurricanes in the past
(i.e., Katrina, Joaquin, Fernanda, etc.).  The NHC intensity
forecast is bumped up slightly, showing a peak in intensity on day
3, and is largely a blend of the ICON intensity consensus and HCCA.

While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance
suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h.  This will
affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward
and Virgin Islands, and interests on those islands should continue
to monitor Irma's progress.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to
the Lesser Antilles over the next few days, producing rough surf and
rip currents.  Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to
specify where and when those hazards could occur.  Residents in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the
weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the Bahamas and the continental United States.  Regardless,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 18.0N  47.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  03/1800Z 17.5N  49.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  04/0600Z 16.8N  51.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  04/1800Z 16.5N  53.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  05/0600Z 16.5N  55.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
72H  06/0600Z 17.8N  60.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
96H  07/0600Z 20.0N  66.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 22.5N  71.5W  115 KT 130 MPH


The Ensembles






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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:51 am

Largo, I'm moving these posts into this blog.   You managed to find and post on a blog that was 5 years old... Cool

LargoFL wrote:bad set-up for florida with IRMA..Euro and GFS in the overnight runs bring the hurricane up close to Florida's east coast and go up into the Carolina's..whereas CMC and Navegem come into south florida and run up the middle of Florida..still a lot of time for this to change

LargoFL wrote:
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:21 am

Gonna be a nailbiter for sure. And darn at the discussion. Last I checked she was forecast to dip to 17N. Now it's half a degree further south (16.5N)
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:50 am

HH will be flying in today..... the Plan of the Day:

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by gomexwx on Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:53 am

very complicated atmosphere ....I would trust no models more than 2 days out...

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:08 am

Gomey, two days out?  We certainly should have a decent handle on a 5 day model... if not and there are any wild swings, it could catch a lot of folks off guard.

Now, I realize that the position of the trough, whether it gets split in two leaving a cut off low behind, how quickly the ridge moves back in, etc.... are all factors, but I pray we have a halfway decent handle on those factors before a 2 day potential landfall or out to sea scenario.
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:19 am

Looking at 500mb height forecast from WPC....  The green line is WPC forecast and the red line is the 0ZGFS forecast - both valid for next Sun Sep 10 at 12Z.  

So the question is.... where is the trough that is forecast?  I'm not seeing anything significant on this surface analysis forecast.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:23 am

Okay, I had to go back to see the trough... by day 7 (above graphic), it has lifted north quite well.

Day 5
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:23 am

^ To me I see a weak trough in the NE, high pressure over the western US, then the Bermuda high. Probably enough of a weakness between the two ridges to tug her north. Just my two cents.
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:25 am

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by gomexwx on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:26 am

The question to me is the developing TUTT to the NW of Irma..another complication...shear at the mid levels and Upper Levels is increasing and I think that's what has slowed the forward speed ...will it aid in steering Irma more NW..OR cause the Bermuda High to ridge to the area and strengthen....All of this is why I said TWO days for now.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:27 am

Hey Aug.... Yeah, I had to go back and look at the previous days/loop, as I started too many days out with the 7 day forecast.
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:30 am

gomexwx wrote:The question to me is the developing TUTT to the NW of Irma..another complication...shear at the mid levels and Upper Levels is increasing and I think that's what has slowed the forward speed ...will it aid in steering Irma more NW..OR cause the Bermuda High to ridge to the area and strengthen....All of this is why I said TWO days for now.

A slower forward speed would not be good, as that could allow the high to move back in.  What is the quickest way to see the speed over the past few days without using SAB points and figuring it out yourself?

EDIT: I found them easily by going back through the archives of the Forecast Advisories


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by gomexwx on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:35 am

sangria wrote:
gomexwx wrote:The question to me is the developing TUTT to the NW of Irma..another complication...shear at the mid levels and Upper Levels is increasing and I think that's what has slowed the forward speed ...will it aid in steering Irma more NW..OR cause the Bermuda High to ridge to the area and strengthen....All of this is why I said TWO days for now.

A slower forward speed would not be good, as that could allow the high to move back in.  What is the quickest way to see the speed over the past few days without using SAB points and figuring it out yourself?

Go back at look at the storm history....You can see the trends in the advisories

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by gomexwx on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:37 am

Lets not forget what may be a future storm to Irma's SW...That also could strengthen and cause the Bermuda High to ridge to the area even more...shoving Irma West to WSW wheather she wants to or not!! LOL...Highs are King!!!

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:41 am

It looks like Irma may not want to keep on the SW trajectory in the past two frames of visible...   Here is a screen capture showing the previous center fix points




And the loop (without fix points, of course)  

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:44 am

gomexwx wrote:Lets not forget what may be a future storm to Irma's SW...That also could strengthen and cause the Bermuda High to ridge to the area even more...shoving Irma West to WSW wheather she wants to or not!! LOL...Highs are King!!!

Okay, we always used to do this in chat, but this is a good place for your "lessons!! Very Happy

I know that High is attracted to Low, but the system SE of Irma is quite a ways away. How can that affect the Bermuda High?
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:47 am

Hey Aug (Mr satellite pro), can you get a continental US WV loop? My link is html and I can't grab a loop.
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:58 am

Aha! Found this blog. Good idea San. Thanks everyone!

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:25 am

Brad Panovich Irma update....


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by gomexwx on Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:17 pm

sangria wrote:
gomexwx wrote:Lets not forget what may be a future storm to Irma's SW...That also could strengthen and cause the Bermuda High to ridge to the area even more...shoving Irma West to WSW wheather she wants to or not!! LOL...Highs are King!!!

Okay, we always used to do this in chat, but this is a good place for your "lessons!!  Very Happy

I know that High is attracted to Low, but the system SE of Irma is quite a ways away.  How can that affect the Bermuda High?
Because that's what the Bermuda High does...it is the trade winds and it shifts North and South with the presence of Lows along the ITCZ...It's all a balance. Now you get a deep low(tropical system) that High gets hungry...BUT WAIT!!! we have a Bermuda High with serious erosion issues...Not only is it trying to fill in tropical lows its fighting ULL's moving over it...IT'S a mess out there!!!!Thats why I say models can't be trusted yet...need more data

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:11 pm

Thanks for info everyone.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:02 pm

000
WTNT41 KNHC 032052
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

The satellite presentation of Irma has degraded slightly since
this morning with the eye becoming less defined. There is evidence
of some northerly flow beneath the cirrus outflow, which may be
disrupting the inner core and preventing Irma from strengthening.
The latest consensus of the Dvorak satellite estimates suggest that
the 100 kt initial intensity could be a little generous, but with a
NOAA aircraft headed into the hurricane it is best to wait until
data from that mission is received before making any adjustment to
the initial wind speed.

Irma has been moving more westward since the previous advisory, but
the longer-term motion estimate is still south of due west or
260/12 kt. A strong high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic
should steer Irma westward to west-southwestward during the next
couple of days. After that time, a turn toward the west-northwest
should occur as Irma approaches the western portion of the Atlantic
ridge. The cross-track spread of the guidance is still relatively
small through day 5, but the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF are on the
southern side of the guidance envelope, with the GFS near the
middle of the envelope. The latest NHC track is once again near
the consensus of these typically reliable models, which is between
the southern edge of the guidance and the TCVN multi-model
consensus. The updated track is not very different from the
previous advisory, except at day 5 where it is slightly west of
the previous forecast.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.
In fact, ASCAT data that arrived after the issuance of the previous
advisory indicated that the size of the tropical-storm-force wind
field has expanded, especially over the northern semicircle. As a
result, the initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted
accordingly.


KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to impact the northeastern Leeward Islands by
the middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough
surf and rip currents. Hurricane watches have been issued for
portions of the Leeward Islands and additional hurricane or tropical
storm watches may be required on Monday. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by
officials.

2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through
the upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and
the Bahamas. Residents in all of these areas should monitor the
progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. Tropical
storm or hurricane watches could be issued for the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have
on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.6N 49.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.2N 51.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 16.8N 53.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 16.8N 55.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 17.3N 58.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 19.1N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 21.2N 68.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 23.0N 73.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:12 pm

Billsfan the cone of winds is in your neck of the woods in the 5pm...............

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:16 pm

This model has it cross south florida to gulf then crosses back over to the atlantic..

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:17 pm

I'm not believing any model anymore till maybe thurs/Friday...they don't know what..Irma is going to do or where its going.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:26 pm

You are correct Largo. There is still widespread difference in the ensembles and the unknown with the trough and ridging is just too high at the current time.
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:41 pm

FWIW, my good buddy Bob A (weatherguy03 for the former WU'ers) is leaning towards an east coast scraper for FL. SE FL noses out further into the west Atlantic so could be more problematic down there (sorry billsfan!) One of his buddies who is a met for the Federal Aviation Administration is leaning towards the Japanese model.
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:42 pm

7 hours late san but her's the CONUS WV you requested.  

Edit: dynamic loop so this will update.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:54 pm

First Vortex msg in from HH

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 21:44Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 21:26:12Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°23'N 49°52'W (17.3833N 49.8667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 713 statute miles (1,148 km) to the ENE (66°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,764m (9,068ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 79kts (~ 90.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WSW (253°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 332° at 87kts (From the NNW at ~ 100.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WSW (253°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 961mb (28.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,001m (9,846ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west, W
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NNE (33°) from the flight level center at 21:30:11Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 185° at 11kts (From the S at 13mph)
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:57 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:7 hours late san but her's the CONUS WV you requested.  


Thanks Aug, I put it on the main comment section.
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:24 pm

Unfortunately now it seems we are zig-zagging across 2 blogs now. San- maybe name this one Hurricane Irma? Just trying to make it easier

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:09 pm

2nd Vortex Msg from HH


Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 23:00Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 22:45:27Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°21'N 50°06'W (17.35N 50.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 698 statute miles (1,124 km) to the ENE (65°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,770m (9,088ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 48° at 99kts (From the NE at ~ 113.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 960mb (28.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west, W
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (318°) from the flight level center at 22:41:38Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NW (317°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 180° at 16kts (From the S at 18mph)
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:26 pm

Thanks San.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:31 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 032351 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 18A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
800 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

Corrected location

...IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
LATE TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 50.3W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
Irma.  Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be
required for portions of this area on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.4 North, longitude
50.3 West.  Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A
westward to west-southwestward motion with some reduction in forward
speed is expected through Monday night.  On the forecast track, the
center of Irma is expected to approach the northern Leeward Islands
late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
observations is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:53 pm

Levi vid....

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:54 am

overnight models say a Florida hit in some fashion..GFS has joined CMC track into FLA..

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:57 am

Nothing is written in stone yet but I'm preparing for a cat-4 hurricane late this coming weekend and I'm praying this does not happen.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by PuppyToes on Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:29 am

Yeah I've been watching Irma move further W. Maybe in another day or two it'll pass us by. No wonder the wx folks didn't want to be pinned down on a forecast for CONUS
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:30 am

PuppyToes wrote:Yeah I've been watching Irma move further W. Maybe in another day or two it'll pass us by. No wonder the wx folks didn't want to be pinned down on a forecast for CONUS
yeah for sure..but still 6-7 days away and they say it will remain a Major Hurricane thru the week whew.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:30 am


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:37 am

if it remains on this path Billsfan and south Florida may begin to feel the outer TS force winds Friday..but again..nothing written in stone yet,still a lot of uncertainty

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:37 am


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:40 am

000
WTNT41 KNHC 040854
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

Irma's signature in infrared satellite images has been improving
over the past few hours.  An eye has appeared and is warming, and
the central dense overcast has become more symmetric.  Although the
satellite presentation is better than when a NOAA plane
investigated Irma last evening, the initial intensity will be held
at 100 kt for now.  Another NOAA P3 aircraft is just now beginning
to sample the hurricane and should provide an updated intensity
estimate during the next few hours.

A strong, stationary mid-tropospheric high centered over the central
Atlantic is forcing Irma on a west-southwestward course, and the
initial motion estimate remains 255/12 kt.  Irma will begin
rounding the southwestern edge of the high soon, which will allow
the hurricane to turn westward later today and then west-
northwestward in 36-48 hours.  Down the road, a large mid-latitude
trough is expected to dig southward over the eastern United States
during the next 72 hours, but the global models have been trending
toward quickly lifting the trough out over New England and eastern
Canada on days 4 and 5, with the subtropical ridge building westward
toward Florida.  As a result, it's becoming increasingly likely that
Irma would maintain a west-northwestward heading on days 3 through
5, and the track guidance shifted significantly westward on this
cycle during that period.  Remarkably, the track models are very
tightly clustered through day 5, which increases the confidence in
the westward shift of the latest NHC forecast.


All environmental factors suggest that Irma will at least maintain
its intensity for the entire 5-day forecast period, if not
strengthen gradually.  Oceanic heat content values increase along
Irma's forecast path, mid-level moisture will be more abundant, and
vertical shear appears to be generally low.  As a result, the NHC
intensity forecast continues to call for gradual intensification
through at least 72 hours, with a possibility for some slight
weakening by days 4 and 5 (but still as a major hurricane).  As with
any major hurricane, Irma's intensity may fluctuate around these
forecast intensities, but the overall trend is for a gradual
increase of the maximum winds, assuming Irma's core does not move
over any of the islands in the Greater Antilles.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.
In addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute
miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands
within a couple of days as a major hurricane, accompanied by
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough
surf and rip currents.  Hurricane watches are in effect for
portions of the Leeward Islands, and additional hurricane or
tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be issued later
today. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma
and listen to advice given by officials.

2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through
the upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba.  Residents in all of these areas should monitor
the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials.
Tropical storm or hurricane watches will likely be issued for the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today.

3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have
on the continental United States.  Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 16.9N  52.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  04/1800Z 16.7N  53.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
24H  05/0600Z 16.6N  56.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  05/1800Z 17.0N  58.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  06/0600Z 17.8N  61.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
72H  07/0600Z 19.6N  66.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
96H  08/0600Z 21.0N  72.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 22.0N  76.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:40 am

I guess they still think it will turn northward,the BIG question is where this turn begins..every run of the models keeps it going westward so far,it may be too far south to feel the pull north..oh well prepare and be ready NHC says.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:44 am


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