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Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:50 am

well it sure looks like we all..can count on TS force winds,the storm is huge, I ready hurricane force winds today extend out 45 miles from center and TS force winds extend outward of 140miles.this can all change of course over the coming days.
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Post by PuppyToes on Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:58 am

If that's what you're offering and putting on the table I'll take TS winds. There I feel much better. Thanks! fun
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:59 am

got this off a fox 13 site............................Ten years ago, the Pinellas property appraiser developed simulations for the county.  After a Category 1 hurricane, much of Dunedin is under water, while Redington Shores gets it from both sides.  And when you bump it up to a Category 2 hurricane, most of Redington Shores gets flooded, Dunedin gets swamped, and flooding sweeps to the Bayfront Tower in St. Petersburg. 
Move up to a Category 3 storm and it takes out 4th Street in St. Pete, while Old Southeast would be reduced to rooftops.  The model shows a Category 4 storm floods the interstate and Tropicana Field.
A Category Five turns the whole downtown blue, as much of the interstate and other major streets go under water -- just as we've seen this week in Texas.
The Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council also worked up a model for a Category 5 storm.  Beyond the flood damage, it projected wind damage would wipe out nearly a half-million homes and businesses.
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:01 am

so in reading that ...prayers this hurricane goes somewhere else.
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Post by PuppyToes on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:07 am

Indeed. Levi Cowan last night said OTS isn't out of the question yet and it depends on the two highs and the low cold front coming down. If not then Irma can slam into the mountains of Hispanola, weaken and continue its westward trek away from FL and serve us only TS winds, which at this point would be a gift on a platter.
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:09 am

PuppyToes wrote:Indeed. Levi Cowan last night said OTS isn't out of the question yet and it depends on the two highs and the low cold front coming down. If not then Irma can slam into the mountains of Hispanola, weaken and continue its westward trek away from FL and serve us only TS winds, which at this point would be a gift on a platter.
yeah would be nice if it weakend down to a cat-1 or so...but we'll see towards the end of the week.
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:09 am

Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 Jma_mslp_uv850_watl_7
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:13 am

NHC doest see Irma weakening much........................FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1200Z 16.7N 57.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.9W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.7N 61.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.2N 72.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 22.4N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.0N 81.0W 130 KT 150 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Post by PuppyToes on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:13 am

I friend and colleague of mine, a just retired Dean move to Clearwater this year. He's in a condo on the beach. Wonder what those folks do since it's built out of concrete. I wouldn't want to be trapped w/o power in there. Don't know how high up he is either.
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Post by gomexwx on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:16 am

LargoFL wrote:can you imagine..with 170mph winds sustained..what the Gusts would be?...folks..we are living thru a history making storm.
yup add the forward speed on the North side as she heads West and you have gust to 185 ... Best way to picture her is :

She's the biggest diameter EF3 tornado you ever saw with her funnel hidden

behind the worlds largest rain shield..

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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:29 am

gomexwx wrote:
LargoFL wrote:can you imagine..with 170mph winds sustained..what the Gusts would be?...folks..we are living thru a history making storm.
yup add the forward speed on the North side as she heads West and you have gust to 185 ... Best way to picture her is :

She's the biggest diameter EF3 tornado you ever saw with her funnel hidden

behind the worlds largest rain shield..
gome this is one horrible hurricane huh,if it goes over me..total destruction here.even as a cat-4
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:30 am

here's the new HMON hurricane model..it says into the gulf.......................Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 Hmon_mslp_wind_11L_43
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:34 am

so some model say up the gulf coast, some say up the middle for awhile and some say up the east coast..hence the uncertainty just yet...by Friday they should know better...what worries me some...we have a cold front that will be snaking down the state later this week..and in the NHC discussion this morning it said the Euro model might slow down over central florida..maybe it bumps up against this front and stalls out for awhile..thats the worst case for us..
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:48 am

are you all ready for this?.....180mph sustained winds?...........................................SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:52 am

a peek at our future?............aftermath of Hurricane Andrew.....................Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 Florida_city-f40074f948ba9101b2dd3d2d143083728ed96335-s800-c15
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:54 am

well who knows, this storm may go way out in the gulf or even stay off our east coast...way too early yet to know anything.
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Post by JRnOldsmar on Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:18 am

Jose is now official.

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Deep convection associated with the disturbance in the central
Atlantic has become more organized overnight. Banding features
are starting to develop as seen in the first-light visible pictures
from the GOES and METEOSAT imagery. Additionally, the ASCAT
scatterometers sampled the system at 1140Z and 1234Z, showing that a
well-defined - though slightly elongated - center had formed. The
maximum believable winds from ASCAT were 35 kt. Thus advisories
are being started on Tropical Storm Jose, the 10th named storm of
the Atlantic season.

With no history on the center location, the motion is estimated to
be west-northwest at 11 kt. Jose should move toward the west or
west-northwest for the next three to four days at a slightly faster
rate of forward speed as it moves south of the deep-layer
Azores-Bermuda high. In about four to five days, Jose should turn
toward the northwest and slow as it reaches the southwestern
periphery of the high. The model guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario and the official forecast is based upon a blend
of the ECMWF-GFS-UKMET deterministic and ensemble model output.

The environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite
conducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are
very warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant
mid-level moisture. By days four and five, however, the vertical
shear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to
its west. Thus the official intensity forecast show steady
intensification until day three, then remains flat through day
five. This forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus
technique, but has the usual - large - uncertainties at the long
forecast range.

The ASCAT observations indicate that the tropical-storm-force winds
extend out about 40 nm from the center in the southeastern
quadrant. The official size forecast suggests a gradual increase in
size, based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus approach.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 12.3N 39.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 12.8N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 13.4N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 13.9N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 14.4N 49.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 16.0N 55.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 18.5N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:43 am

more of Florida now inside the cone....................................................Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 145233_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:07 pm

12Z GFS still running........gee...........................................................Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_uv850_watl_21
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:10 pm

hmm 12Z GFS has changed a lil,from going up florida now probably up the east coast....Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_uv850_us_22
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:12 pm

gee so far Billsfan's area may experience some of the eye winds..so close..hope this changes thru the next few days,
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:19 pm

yes 12Z GFS keeps Irma on or just off the east cast......................................Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_uv850_us_25
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:21 pm

now lets see what the Euro says later today........if this does verify,with the most severe winds by the eye and on the right side of the storm,maybe here on the gulf coast it will be slightly less...but...wayyy too soon to believe anything, we all need to prepare huh
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:57 pm

NEW: Monroe County, FL issues mandatory evacuation for visitors and residents in Florida Keys due to Hurricane #Irma http://abcn.ws/2iZT1tM 
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:59 pm

Billsfan..........NWS Miami........Friday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 81. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Hurricane conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night: Hurricane conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 80. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:02 pm

Gome 12Z CMC takes Irma up the west coast to you also........................Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 Gem_mslp_uv850_us_27
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:04 pm

well if Irma comes up the west coast..I'll be on its bad side...whew........my daughter called earlier..dad..you and mom come here to san Francisco...nah I'm staying here and tough it out best I can.
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Post by sangria on Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:21 pm

I'm liking the 12Z Euro run so far..... hello Cuba!!!

Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 D8WXgiL
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Post by sangria on Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:27 pm

I do see a problem with the run though - it initialized at too high of a pressure. It is using 962mb and she was at about 930mb, which is substantially stronger.
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:29 pm

the navy model is following the GFS with a track up the east side of Florida...Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 Navgem_mslp_uv850_us_25
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:33 pm

the new hurricane model HMON says up the east coast of Florida...............Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 Hmon_mslp_uv850_11L_43
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:35 pm

just what I didn't want to see..12Z Euro up the gulf coast and close too.................Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 Ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_7
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:37 pm

well Friday before the tropical storm winds come I'm putting up the plywood and taking everything in from outside and wait this out..i'd love to wake up sunday morning and see it out in the atlantic
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:39 pm

one guy who lived thru another strong hurricane said to take in any of those decorative bricks etc that people put around their gardens and plants..they become missles in real high winds,remove anything that could be lifted and thrown at your house he said..man I have a big job ahead of me..wish I was 30 again LOL
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:43 pm

Miami channel 10 news..................Miami-Dade to begin evacuations as early as Wed., ahead of #Irma, county offices to close Thur., Fri....schools there also closed thurs-fri it said
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:07 pm

18Z runs looks for it to be up the east coast but nothing official yet................Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 11L_tracks_latest
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:10 pm

check the web, tampa bay area counties/cities beginng sand bag locations if you need them..most open thurs/Friday if I remember right..guess i'll get 10 or so..i don't flood but whatever rain this storm dumps will get blown towards the house etc.
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:15 pm

I don't know if any of you plan to go to work Friday..just remember those tropical storm force winds will be beginning to hit here then..sort of dangerous driving in it if its the strong kind. we might go to publix and see if the have any dry ice packs left...that might be good for the fridge for awhile,plus we have a lot of coolers we can put any food in as well...as long as my roof holds I think i'll be ok.
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:16 pm

well we have a few days to go yet before we know anything, only thing we can do is prepare and be ready.
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Post by PuppyToes on Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:31 pm

Thanks for the tip Largo on lawn ornaments. I've got some on the front and back of the house too. Were taking the flag and the pole down as well. I pray this storm keeps us all safe and in His hands. There's a lot of folks that live in Miami Dade, smart to get them out and started on the road. Next update at 430?
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Post by PuppyToes on Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:38 pm

Got all my meds filled. One dog has his insulin and syringes stocked. All dog/cat food stocked. I'm numb right now. Tomorrow another busy day. I'd rather jump through the hoops now and have it be for not later. I think it's beer/cocktail thirty so I'll check back. Thanks Largo.
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Post by StAugustineFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:03 pm

Good afternoon. Had to drive up to work today for the first time in a year. I haven't been feeling too well physically today and in looking at this storm I now also feel mentally ill.
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:21 pm

PuppyToes wrote:Thanks for the tip Largo on lawn ornaments. I've got some on the front and back of the house too. Were taking the flag and the pole down as well. I pray this storm keeps us all safe and in His hands. There's a lot of folks that live in Miami Dade, smart to get them out and started on the road. Next update at 430?
yes I also have a lot to take in,i like gardens and all around the house I have things to take in that could become missles..im going to put up the plwood over the windows etc Friday morning,guess we go tomorrow and get a few more things we need..guess we are all set..im sure hoping it goes up the atlantic side of our state and we will be on the weaker side here.
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:22 pm

Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 Clark11latest
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:23 pm

remember strength and tracks will be changing next few days,nothing set in stone yet..Friday may be the day we know for sure....but..possibly early Saturday if the storm slows down any.
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:24 pm

so far intensity models keep Irma a cat-4 when going over or by Florida..still will be a very strong bad storm..one we may remember for years
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Post by StAugustineFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:03 pm

No offense to anyone in the islands but I am hoping Irma takes the low road and Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba can put a big dent in her. Sigh
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Post by PuppyToes on Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:12 pm

Absolutely AUG. We need any help we can get.
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Post by PuppyToes on Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:14 pm

My 3rd year here and POW. And I'll be part of it.
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:59 pm

Tropical Threats First Part of Sept - Page 4 Lg_spaghetti3
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