Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:01 pm

again, we cannot believe any model runs just yet,by Friday they should have a solid track and where it will go barring any surprises like speeding up etc....tomorrow's another day of the waiting game huh...good night folks

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by JRnOldsmar on Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:30 pm

Lol, PT.
My 40th (plus) year here in Florida, and I pray, for guidance and strength, for everyone who takes part in this event. The company is sending me to Atlanta tomorrow (operational backup and disaster recovery if needed), so tonight and the morning is all the home prep I get. Keeping family safe is the only focus. If Irma tracks up the west coast, at 12' elevation at the top of the bay, surge is my greatest fear.
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by PuppyToes on Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:41 pm

Man JR, you don't have much time. How will you know the status of your place? Oh they're closing Hernando Co schools tomorrow. This is beginning to get hot, isn't it?
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:03 pm

Hi guys. My stomach is in knots. I'm going to Publix for a last run tomorrow for some items. Already have gas/water, generator at shop now. Ugggh

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by JRnOldsmar on Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:05 pm

PuppyToes wrote:Man JR, you don't have much time. How will you know the status of your place? Oh they're closing Hernando Co schools tomorrow. This is beginning to get hot, isn't it?

Not sure, PT. I'm connected with many locals, but who knows how this will play out?

Hernando school closures, as early as tomorrow, don't make sense to me.
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:22 am

JRnOldsmar wrote:Lol, PT.
My 40th (plus) year here in Florida, and I pray, for guidance and strength, for everyone who takes part in this event.  The company is sending me to Atlanta tomorrow (operational backup and disaster recovery if needed), so tonight and the morning is all the home prep I get.  Keeping family safe is the only focus.  If Irma tracks up the west coast, at 12' elevation at the top of the bay, surge is my greatest fear.
JR ibe careful up there in GA,several models take Iema there next week..have a good trip.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:24 am

GFS 0Z model run,close to south florida..then up the east coast of Florida...............

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:27 am

NAVGEM model also no landfall in Florida,up the east coast to the southeast.....

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:29 am

0Z Euro model also no landfall in Florida up east coast to southeast..............

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:32 am

so the overnight models mostly run up the east coast of Florida on the overnight runs and into the southeast,but still a few days left yet and things will change probably several times once again..prepare and wait this out ok.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:35 am

regardless of model runs Florida is IN the official Cone..prepare and wait this out.............

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:44 am


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:47 am

folks remember..Irma is a huge powerful Hurricane,no matter what coast she goes up here..all or most of Florida will feel her hurricane winds and wrath gee..only good thing is,in most hurricanes,the most dangerous side of the eye is on its right side..and if she goes up the east coast..maybe the damage we receive might be a little less...stay tuned

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:49 am

now watch, tomorrow the models will say back up the middle of our state..cant trust them just yet.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:03 am


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:04 am

oh oh..new NHC Cone.....................................................................

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:47 am

well at 5am it seems it may still come up into south florida, we cant believe the model runs,stay prepared huh.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:48 am


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:57 am

Looks like St Bart took a direct hit and Irma's eye is now reaching St Martin

Link to Radar and Satellite Loop

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:12 am

Good morning all! Still no water/bread at Publix. Gas is sold out at many locations.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:58 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi guys.  My stomach is in knots.  I'm going to Publix for a last run tomorrow for some items. Already have gas/water, generator at shop now.  Ugggh
HIYA Billsfan!!..yes stock up and prepare and stay safe down there for sure.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:59 am

scary,some model keep Irma a cat-5 all the way thru ................................

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:01 am

again, don't be fooled by todays model runs,ALOT can change in the coming days,prepare fully and wait this out.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:50 pm


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:42 pm

AUG..if this current GFS track holds, Irma could be coming close to your coastline,stay alert up there ok

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:12 pm

AUG..12Z Euro takes Irma up the state out by your area....................................

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:13 pm

I guess no need to say this is one really Dangerous Hurricane,all of us will get some of this

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by StAugustineFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:19 pm

Yep Largo. I will wait another 36 hours to see how things evolve. If too close for comfort I'm going to the west coast, lol.

Current Puerto Rico radar depicts the eye well. They dodged a bullet.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:44 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:Yep Largo.  I will wait another 36 hours to see how things evolve.  If too close for comfort I'm going to the west coast, lol.

Current Puerto Rico radar depicts the eye well.  They dodged a bullet.

oh glad your aware Aug, nothing set in stone yet,the sheer size of this storm, we'll all get some of it.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by StAugustineFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:40 pm

You don't need to worry about me being unaware Largo. I always have a good pulse with what's going on weather-wise locally, statewide, and often times nationally or internationally although don't always post due to work/life priorities. Irma with no doubt has 100% of my attention.
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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:13 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:You don't need to worry about me being unaware Largo.  I always have a good pulse with what's going on weather-wise locally, statewide, and often times nationally or internationally although don't always post due to work/life priorities.  Irma with no doubt has 100% of my attention.  
ok well good luck ok,we all get a piece of this HUGE monster storm.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:16 pm

news met says the hurricane force winds radiate 125-150 miles from eye so wherever this eye finally decides to go in florida,a whole lot of people and heavily populated cites will be affected..we still have a few days to see where and when this supposed turn comes...too early yet to know he said...

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:17 pm


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:55 pm

My Facebook and phone are blown up. My phone died today. We cannot leave. No way. Not a wise move

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:10 am


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:12 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:My Facebook and phone are blown up. My phone died today. We cannot leave. No way. Not a wise move
gee Billsfan,this is a real bad situation.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:04 am

EPS Ensemble model still brings Irma up the middle of Florida......................

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:05 am

heed the NHC Cone folks,they wont be sure until maybe Saturday morning..stay safe everyone.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:24 am

I guess most of Florida feels the way I do right now,this is a Massive hurricane heading to Florida,its as large as our whole state geez..cant tell you how nervous I am this morning.prepare and wait this out...dont take this storm lightly ok.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:20 am

south florida may see Hurricane Watches at the 11am and central Florida may be in the hurricane watch this evening,just read that...well I'm preparing for sure,I guess I could see 90-100mph winds here by me,alot of these huge tree's around me could come down,but I should be ok as long as my roof stays put...I cannot imagine this hurricame coming up Into Florida..then all bets are off OMG....a met on the news called Irma a Nuclear Hurricane...no other hurricane in the world has ever stayed at cat-5 for so long...and its heading for that steam bath waters of the gulf stream that flows down there close to florida..boom when it hits it....Billsfan..get out of there.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:25 am


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:31 am

Morning everyone....

The most recent (0Z) ensembles



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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by StAugustineFL on Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:06 am

Morning. What to do.........

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:05 am


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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:05 am

good morning folks!...so much uncertainty on tracks this morning.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by waterdipper on Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:13 am

Which model is correct? The off the coast GFS or the Euro right into Miami? I was sure yesterday this storm would miss a direct hit on the state and plow into SC, but today with the frontal system looking weaker than previously and many of the Euro ensemble runs showing a Gulf storm I am not so sure. Also, the current forward motion of Irma at 17 MPH also has me concerned it will make it further westward before the weakness in the high is able to lift it north, increasing the odds of a FL hit. My current forecast is for really not much impacts, but I know this could change drastically depending on the track.

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by gomexwx on Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:19 am

We still with all our technology can't predict any Hurricane past 3 days..This is a very complicated Atmosphere we are dealing with..Please do not take the center of the cone as set in stone...The track shown is less than 5% of that cone..which leaves a huge margin of error or could happens. IF you are 100 miles either side of the cone do not let your guard down...Models are only one in a million tools used and they just give a hint...no more

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:43 am

Current water vapor showing the shortwave coming down.  Static image - will not update.

Click here for link to Central US satellite imagery page

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by gomexwx on Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:17 am

That shortwave is faster than predicted..I hope with tha zonal flow it dont dig much farther south..If it does stationary Katia could gain latitude and lift north and be pulled NE with that flow..

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Re: Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Post by sangria on Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:26 am

gomexwx wrote:That shortwave is faster than predicted..I hope with tha zonal flow it dont dig much farther south..If it does stationary Katia could gain latitude and lift north and be pulled NE with that flow..

In chatting with someone this morning, I wondered why there was no forecasted effect on Katia from that shortwave.
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