CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG

well good night from my end folks..tomorrow is another day.

oh, GFS is saying something might be brewing in the Caribbean in awhile...........

NWS Tampa.....Sun Sep 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of
the area this afternoon and move westward through the evening
hours. Gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will
accompany any stronger storms.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Several area rivers remain in moderate to major flood stage.
Though modest improvement has occurred due to the recent spell of
drier weather, Residents living along rivers or faster flowing
streams should remain aware of water levels and be ready to move
to higher ground should flooding occur. Check with your local
emergency management agency for available shelters if you are
displaced due to flooding.

Good Sunday Morning folks!..well I got a good thunderstorm last evening,rained here pretty good for a half hour or so, I needed that..hopefully later today another one will reach my area....no tropical stuff near Florida which is a good thing, GFS is sniffing out something in the Caribbean around the 9th or 10th of OCT, plenty of time yet to see if it verifies,but La-Nina is about here and the next few months we really have to keep a close eye on the gulf and Caribbean for any Lows in them huh...have a great day everyone!

Morning all. Nice afternoon yesterday after the late morning/early afternoon rain. 20% chance here today so I'm not banking on anymore but I don't need any at the moment. Monthly total is 18.93". Work week looks very warm with highs in the upper 80's/low 90's with lows around 70 with no rain chances due to sinking air on Maria's back side.

Good afternoon. We got some decent rain this morning. But clear now, hot & sunny. Another month of this and it will break. I hope!

folks does this look like something trying to form in the gulf??..

yes an upper LOW in the gulf...........................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
223 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.NEAR TERM /Through Monday/...

Overview: The near term begins with an upper trough across the
intermountain west, a ridge over the mid Atlantic and northeastern
conus, the remnants of Jose east of the northeastern CONUS, an
upper low along the northern Gulf coast, and Hurricane Maria
northeast of the Bahamas well to the east of the region. The upper
trough will lift northeast on Monday, with a shortwave
reinforcing the trough over the intermountain west. The upper
ridge over the northeastern CONUS will remain stationary, and the
upper low over the northern Gulf coast will begin to shear out on
Monday. The remnants of Lee will continue to weaken and push off
to the northwest. Hurricane Maria will move north to southeast of
the Carolinas on Monday.

Rest of today and tonight: An isolated shower moved into the
coast of northeast Florida late this morning. Otherwise mainly dry
conditions have prevailed. Breezy east northeasterly flow will
continue through the afternoon along the coast, and a few
showers/storms are possible across northeast Florida through the
afternoon. An isolated coastal shower is possible for St Johns and
Flagler County overnight. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70 inland and the
low to mid 70s along the coast.

Good afternoon. Unfortunately we missed the rain last night to the south. Yard waste hasn't been picked up yet which seems odd. Sure wish Maria would throw a few rain bands our way. Celebrating my 55th birthday today and it's been great. Billsfan I know your day is tomorrow so Happy Birthday and have a terrific day!

I was just coming here to wish you a Happy Birthday PT! I hope it continues to be fantastic. And thank you for my birthday wishes! Bills are beating Broncos, a win would be so nice!
Daughter treated us to wings!

Happy Birthday PT! Hope you enjoy the rest of your day.

Happy early Birthday Billsfan in case I don't get in here tomorrow. Mondays suck for me! I usually work till I'm ready to drop, so chances are slim I will pop in.

I missed out on the rain moving west yesterday, and looks like I am missing out today.... thunder abounds, but not even a sprinkle.

Thanks San.

PuppyToes wrote:Good afternoon. Unfortunately we missed the rain last night to the south. Yard waste hasn't been picked up yet which seems odd. Sure wish Maria would throw a few rain bands our way. Celebrating my 55th birthday today and it's been great. Billsfan I know your day is tomorrow so Happy Birthday and have a terrific day!

well Happy Birthday PT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

yes an Early HAPPY BIRTHDAY BILLSFAN!!!

Well Looks like you have a good storm on your doorstep JR,i can hear distant thunder north of me..its just about 4 45pm..good luck ok...not a drop so far by me,suns still out...maybe later

well good night folks!

Thanks Largo for posts and birthday wishes!

NWS Tampa.........Mon Sep 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of
the area this afternoon and move westward through the evening
hours. Gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will
accompany any stronger storms.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Several area rivers remain in moderate to major flood stage.
Though modest improvement has occurred due to the recent spell of
drier weather, Residents living along rivers or faster flowing
streams should remain aware of water levels and be ready to move
to higher ground should flooding occur. Check with your local
emergency management agency for available shelters if you are
displaced due to flooding.

Good Monday Morning folks!..well I got a sprinkle or 2 of rain last evening,not even enough to partially wet the street but every drop counts huh........oh and HAPPY BIRTHDAY BILLSFAN!!!!!!!......Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy..have a wonderful day everyone!

funny thing, today is my Daughter's Bday and also 2 of my friends...must be a special day huh

All these Christmas babies!!!

Happy birthday, PT, BillsFan, and daughter Largo.

Busy weekend. Got 0.7 Sat and 1.2 yesterday. Both perfectly timed around 5p-6p to have a cooled down evening. Looks like a drier week ahead. Highs of low 90's and lows upper-mid 70's. I'm ready for that first cool front now.

LargoFL wrote:funny thing, today is my Daughter's Bday and also 2 of my friends...must be a special day huh

Thanks Largo.
It officially says September 16th is the most shared birthday. (every day the last two weeks of September are very popular) But I too as well personally know 4 friends that share today and it seems like a lot of people I know also know family or friends that share today. Lots of "famous" people too. Both Michael Douglas and his wife are 9/25er's. And several others.

JRnOldsmar wrote:All these Christmas babies!!!

Happy birthday, PT, BillsFan, and daughter Largo.

Busy weekend.  Got 0.7 Sat and 1.2 yesterday.  Both perfectly timed around 5p-6p to have a cooled down evening.  Looks like a drier week ahead.  Highs of low 90's and lows upper-mid 70's.  I'm ready for that first cool front now.

thanks JR yes a cool front sure would feel good now.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:funny thing, today is my Daughter's Bday and also 2 of my friends...must be a special day huh

Thanks Largo.  
It officially says September 16th is the most shared birthday.  (every day the last two weeks of September are very popular)   But I too as well personally know 4 friends that share today and it seems like a lot of people I know also know family or friends that share today.  Lots of "famous" people too.  Both Michael Douglas and his wife are 9/25er's.  And several others.

wow Billsfan, maybe the whole month of sept too..maybe they should name it the Birthing month!!..whew..i don't envy the Mothers carrying all that weight etc thru the Hot summer months whew..

Aug around 9/30 some kind of Low or storm will be around your area..

yes some kind of gulf Low comes into Tampa bay then up to Aug in north Florida .......

Just want to mention..most models have October a very wet month for us..so far anyway..a few days could be more than 4-5 inches if models verify ok..i feel sorry for the folks living along our now flooding rivers...whew

AUG..you ready for this?...but goes into GA/SC so far..way out in time,could change huh..

somehow I'm getting the feeling THIS hurricane season with the BIG strong Hurricanes will turn out to be like 2005..a Bad one for us.

OK now Euro model is picking up on something in the Caribbean then gulf in a week or two..its still the season huh..

Happy belated birthday PT! Happy birthday bills!

I think that little wrinkle later this week Largo may just be a wave of low pressure along a cold front.

But longer term, yeah, there are some hints of mischief out there. October is the 2nd most active month of the season. Still can't take your eyes off the Atlantic but we're transitioning more towards the season of looking to the Carribbean for systems being drawn northward with respect to FL impacts.

Kinda interesting looking at the size comparison between Lee and Maria.

Just wanted to drop by and say thanks for all the birthday wishes. Billsfan is still enjoying her day today. Almost feels like family so thanks again. Largo, you're right there seems to be sumtin that wants to make around 10/10 for FL so we'll have to monitor it for now, huh. I'll be glad when the temps ease off some. My pool is just as warm as the hot tub was up north!

we could have Nate in Florida inside of 8 days

Is that a wave off Africa or a Caribbean spin up?

LargoFL wrote:we could have Nate in Florida inside of 8 days

Be cautious of the time stamps Largo.  The windy map posted was from yesterday plus there's no legend to know what elevation those winds are at (surface, 850MB, 500MB, etc).  I just looked at the Euro and GFS and it's much different for Oct 2nd.  Here's the most recent GFS version showing surface winds of 10-20mph over FL.



Longer term we may have something brewing.........

Thanks Aug for b-day wishes I always am leery of October

yeah Aug,models see something brewing and whatever develops, comes to Florida in the next few weeks.

overnight Euro see's a Caribbean LOW coming into the gulf,we'll see what happens...

what I'm noticing are the 2 main models Euro and GFS both saying a pattern is emerging on something coming to Florida,what and where are the big questions right now.

looks like a dry week ahead for my area..Billsfan's area has best chances for rain a 40-50% chance today down there..good luck Billsfan!!!

Good Tuesday Morning folks!..well my A/C went down yesterday grrr..its only 4-5 months old grrrr..tech's are coming mid morning to fix it..thank goodness for warranties huh lol..oh well that's life in Florida huh........so Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone

models all sense something in the gulf etc,but nothing solid right now,but 1st couple weeks in OCT just might get interesting for Florida..a few models like the first week of OCT..too early yet to know...just my opinion ok,model watching lol..

Billsfan it looks like you have a wet morning already down there........