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» Hurricane Season 2020
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» summer 2019 hurricane season
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» April-May Florida weather and local events etc
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» NASCAR 2019
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» Late January through February outlook
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» FLORIDA/ALABAMA AND THE HOLIDAY SEASON WEATHER
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» NASCAR 2018
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» CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief
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CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG

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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:01 am

CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG - Page 8 Gfs_z850_vort_us_18
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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:50 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1054 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...Hazardous Coastal & Marine Conditions Today...

.UPDATE...Nor`Easter in full effect today with blustery winds of
20-30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph at times along the coast and
within bands of locally heavy rainfall dropping hourly rates of
2-3 inches. Current wind advisory and flood watch look on track
with no changes planned at this time to headlines.

Low pressure near the north FL Atlantic coast has opened up with
now a general coastal trough synoptic pattern over the local area
and high pressure wedge axis extending down across central GA.
Surface convergence and moisture axis will continue to focus along
the NE FL coast, with precip drifting inland toward I-75 through
the afternoon hours. Persistent waves of rainfall will continue a
flooding threat for our eastern NE Florida counties from the coast
toward Clay/Putnam where some areas have already measured 5-7
inches of rainfall in 24 hrs. Expect a gradual drying trend into
the evening hours as the high to the north strengthens and shunts
surface convergence farther south over central Florida, with a
chance of coastal showers continuing through the night, but precip
becoming more isolated in nature verses widespread and persistent
as was the scenario today.

Temperatures will remain well below climo across most locations in
the 70s today, but above low max temperature records.

&&Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1054 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...Hazardous Coastal & Marine Conditions Today...

.UPDATE...Nor`Easter in full effect today with blustery winds of
20-30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph at times along the coast and
within bands of locally heavy rainfall dropping hourly rates of
2-3 inches. Current wind advisory and flood watch look on track
with no changes planned at this time to headlines.

Low pressure near the north FL Atlantic coast has opened up with
now a general coastal trough synoptic pattern over the local area
and high pressure wedge axis extending down across central GA.
Surface convergence and moisture axis will continue to focus along
the NE FL coast, with precip drifting inland toward I-75 through
the afternoon hours. Persistent waves of rainfall will continue a
flooding threat for our eastern NE Florida counties from the coast
toward Clay/Putnam where some areas have already measured 5-7
inches of rainfall in 24 hrs. Expect a gradual drying trend into
the evening hours as the high to the north strengthens and shunts
surface convergence farther south over central Florida, with a
chance of coastal showers continuing through the night, but precip
becoming more isolated in nature verses widespread and persistent
as was the scenario today.

Temperatures will remain well below climo across most locations in
the 70s today, but above low max temperature records.

&&
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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:51 pm

Good Luck up there Aug..nor'easter in full effect today there..what amazes me is ..they say 2-3 inches an hour rainfall whew.
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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:52 pm

Hopefully some of that rain will reach down here to me later on tonight.
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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:01 pm

well 12Z models today (sunday) are all over the place,cant be trusted.
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:11 pm

Hi everyone. Been getting rain showers on and off today. Hopefully it rains itself out before the work week.

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Post by StAugustineFL Sun Oct 01, 2017 2:09 pm

LargoFL wrote:Good Luck up there Aug..nor'easter  in full effect today there..what amazes me is ..they say 2-3 inches an hour rainfall whew.

I've not seen anything close to those rain rates here. I'm a touch over 1" in 7 hours. Just been a steady, light rain with a brief heavier spurt lasting a few seconds.
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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 01, 2017 3:51 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi everyone. Been getting rain showers on and off today. Hopefully it rains itself out before the work week.
hiya Billsfan..good you got rain..drier weather supposedly coming this week.
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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 01, 2017 3:52 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:
LargoFL wrote:Good Luck up there Aug..nor'easter  in full effect today there..what amazes me is ..they say 2-3 inches an hour rainfall whew.

I've not seen anything close to those rain rates here.  I'm a touch over 1" in 7 hours.  Just been a steady, light rain with a brief heavier spurt lasting a few seconds.
yeah probably closer to Jacksonville and the coastline.
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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 01, 2017 3:53 pm

well no rain here yet...hope this one in Hillsborough reaches me..sure is HOT here....................CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG - Page 8 1506887281
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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 01, 2017 3:55 pm

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
153 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017

FLZ033-038-124-125-GAZ154-166-020000-
/O.CON.KJAX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-171002T0000Z/
St. Johns-Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coastal Glynn-
Coastal Camden-
Including the cities of Ponte Vedra Beach, Durbin, Palm Valley,
Fruit Cove, Switzerland, Anastasia, Bakersville, Palm Coast,
Amelia City, Fernandina Beach, Yulee, Arlington, Jacksonville,
Oceanway, Tallyrand, Jekyll Island, Glynn Haven, Sea Island,
St. Simons, Country Club Estate, Dock Junction, Dover Bluff,
Kingsland, and Dungeness
153 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...through this evening.

* WINDS...Sustained northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts 35
to 40 mph mainly along the coast.

* IMPACTS...Minor damage to trees, power lines, and property are
possible with wind of this magnitude. Motorists in high
profiles vehicles are advised to use caution. Strong winds can
topple trees, blow weakened roofs off houses, and down power
lines. Take precautions to secure trash cans, lawn furniture,
and any other loose outdoor objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds greater than
25 mph are expected for at least an hour, with gusts of 35 to
57 mph at any time.

&&

$$
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sun Oct 01, 2017 4:27 pm

Those are some pretty good gusts. Thanks Largo for updating

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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:14 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Those are some pretty good gusts.  Thanks Largo for updating
np problem Billsfan
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:17 am

Good Monday Morning folks!..real breezy here this morning,feels great!! hope it sticks around for awhile..local forecast says possible showers again later today here,didnt get really anything yesterday..just a real quick shower...well Blogs Coffee is perking for when you get here..enjoy...have a great day everyone!
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:27 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
402 AM EDT MON OCT 2 2017

FLC019-035-107-109-021400-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FA.W.0088.171002T0802Z-171002T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Flagler FL-St. Johns FL-Putnam FL-Clay FL-
402 AM EDT MON OCT 2 2017

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Flagler County in northeastern Florida...
Southern St. Johns County in northeastern Florida...
Northeastern Putnam County in northeastern Florida...
East central Clay County in northeastern Florida...

* Until 1000 AM EDT Monday

* At 400 AM EDT, Emergency Management, the media and the public
reported flooding due to two day rainfall totals of 7 to 13
inches. The heavy rainfall has ended, but standing water, flooded
roads, and the flooding of some structures is still occurring.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Palm Coast, Palatka, Flagler Beach, Bunnell, Pomona Park, Hastings,
East Palatka, Andalusia, Saint Augustine Beach and Marineland.
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:42 am

CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG - Page 8 Image3
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:43 am

NWS Tampa..Mon Oct 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region
late this morning, and will become more numerous in coverage
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning strikes. Remember if lightning is observed or
thunder is heard move indoors immediately.
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:04 am

well Over night models have something tropical into Florida again..towards this coming weekend,heed your local warnings ok folks..
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:03 am

Clipped from NWs Tampa's morning discussion......Of note despite
model differences with regards to the inverted trough all three
models depict a second surface low (possibly tropical in nature)
lifting northward into the south-central Gulf on Sunday so we will
have to closely monitor the progress of these systems during the
coming days.

In the interim though given such model differences forecast
confidence in any one solution is very low at the moment so for now
will depict scattered showers and isolated storms in the forecast
from Friday and into the weekend, and wait to see if better model
continuity develops during the coming days. Temperatures will run
close to normal with lows in the lower to mid 70s, and highs in the
mid to upper 80s.
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:06 am

CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG - Page 8 Coffee_198924
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Post by JRnOldsmar Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:18 am

Good morning, All. Thanks for the neon coffee, Largo!

The storm yesterday had quite a punch. It dumped almost an inch, in about 20 minutes, with some pretty nasty gusts.

Thanks for all of the updates as well, Largo. It looks like we have some potential coming up to keep an eye out for.
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Post by JRnOldsmar Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:20 am

CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG - Page 8 Two_at10
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:18 am

JRnOldsmar wrote:Good morning, All.  Thanks for the neon coffee, Largo!

The storm yesterday had quite a punch.  It dumped almost an inch, in about 20 minutes, with some pretty nasty gusts.

Thanks for all of the updates as well, Largo.  It looks like we have some potential coming up to keep an eye out for.
good morning JR,lol we needed a neon wake up today LOL.....yeah we need to stay alert towards this coming weekend alright....didn't get much rain here by me..just a real quick light rain and it was over.
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:57 am

my prayers for those poor people over in Las vegas..latest figures I saw were 58 dead over 500 wounded..can you imagine?
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:55 pm

WD and AUG..Euro takes the Carib storm into big bend then crosses North florida to ATL.CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG - Page 8 Ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_7
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:59 pm

no 2 models are the same at 12Z..lets see what NHC is saying by friday
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:02 pm

NWS Tampa (clipped)..... For Thursday the
moisture will begin to increase with rain chances climbing
to 20 percent north to 50 percent south and interior. Late
in the week into early next week the global models continue
to indicate that deeper moisture along with the potential
for an area of low pressure to move north out of the western
Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. Will need to continue to
monitor the evolution of this system during the week, but
no matter what it does look like deeper moisture will
overspread the region leading to scattered to numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms for Friday through Monday.
Temperatures will be highly depend on the amount of sunshine
during the days, but it does look like highs will be
generally near normal while overnight lows are near to a few
degrees above normal.

&&
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:08 pm

NWS Melbourne (clipped)....Thursday-Sunday...The models generally show a high moisture
band, which was suppressed just to our south, gradually returning
to the local area as surface high pressure shifts seaward. The
exact details in this part of the forecast will be difficult as
the models have been indicating various solutions showing areas of
low pressure nearby or over the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic. It`s too
difficult to hang your hat on the solution of any one model. The
highest PoPs, around 50 percent, should start out across the
south and work to northern sections by the end of the period. Max
temps in the mid-upper 80s are indicated with above normal lows
in the lower-mid 70s continuing and even some upper 70s along the
Space/Treasure Coast.

&&
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Post by LargoFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:09 pm

so in effect,models are all over the place again today..just stay alert towards the weekend..good night folks..just sunny and breezy here.
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Post by StAugustineFL Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:15 pm

Good afternoon. Beh, I don't like the looks of some of those models. It's too soon to possibly be going through this again. Hopefully, if it develops, it'll be no more than a 50-60mph tropical storm.
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:02 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.  Beh, I don't like the looks of some of those models.  It's too soon to possibly be going through this again.  Hopefully, if it develops, it'll be no more than a 50-60mph tropical storm.
hi Aug..overnight models are changing once again..lets see what they say tues afternoon.
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:04 am

BILLFAN....supposedly maybe a weak tropical storm around wens/thurs for your area coming in from the bahama's..might be just some wind and rain..doesn't look so far like anything strong ok.
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:05 am

CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG - Page 8 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_11
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:07 am

and the overnight Euro takes the Caribbean something into the panhandle area now..CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG - Page 8 Ecmwf_mslpa_watl_7
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:09 am

still very uncertain model wise on whats going to happen storm wise thru this week and weekend..still a waiting game.
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:20 am

yeah Billsfan maybe just a rainmaker with some gusty winds.............................
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A sharp trough of low pressure, located over the northwestern
Bahamas, continues to produce an area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Although tropical cyclone formation is not expected
due to hostile upper-level winds, the disturbance is forecast to
move westward at 25 to 30 mph for the next day or so, spreading
locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds in brief squalls
across portions of the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, and
across much of South Florida later morning and continuing into the
afternoon. Additional information on this disturbance can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Tropical Analysis and
Forecast Branch, and also in forecast products and statements issued
by your local weather service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea within the next few days. Some slow development of
this system is possible by the weekend while the low drifts
northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Additional information on the Bahamas disturbance can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:27 am

CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG - Page 8 Get?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fgfs%2F2017100300%2Fgfs_mslp_uv850_watl_12
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:28 am

I'm thinking Florida needs a break from all this storminess huh.
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:35 am

Good Tuesday Morning folks!..Blogs Coffee is perking for when you get here enjoy...have a great day folks..next few days could get a bit blustery towards Thursday,we'll see what happens....have a great day everyone!
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:37 am

CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG - Page 8 HTTP3JzMTM1Ni5wYnNyYy5jb20vYWxidW1zL3E3MzcvbGVvbml2by9TbWlsZXklMjBhbmltaWVydC9TbWlsZXlfY29mZmVldGltZV8yX3pwczZjOWZkOWE5LmdpZn5jMjAw
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:39 am


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
330 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM/ TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A strong tropical wave is
currently moving across the Bahamas and into the region this
morning. The 00z MFL sounding already had precipitable water at
2.19 inches well above climatological mean of 1.74 inches. With
abundant moisture we will see stronger storms with heavy rainfall
and gusty winds as the wave moves across South Florida today and
tonight. Higher than normal tides associated with king tides and
the full moon in a few days,we are already seeing tide predictions
running about a foot above predicted levels. Therefore, flooding
will be a concern along the coast. Poor drainage due to debris
from the recovery of Irma may also cause some roadways and low
lying areas to drain slower than normal resulting in flooding.
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:39 am

check THIS out,now we worry about Pacific storms too???....................CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG - Page 8 90E_geps_latest
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:43 am

from mikes weather page..........................................................CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG - Page 8 22089429_10155568578467367_3434226578393052523_n
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:44 am

Mike is thinking the Caribe storm and the Bahama's storm could join in the gulf..
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:59 am

NWS Miami....Tue Oct 3 2017

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a High Risk for Rip Currents along Atlantic
beaches.

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are likely across South Florida today.
Primary hazards will be lightning, urban flooding of low lying and
poor drainage areas, and gusty wind.

Wind: East wind of 20-25 knots expected across Atlantic waters and
around 20 knots over the Gulf waters. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph are
possible over all of South Florida and the coastal waters as well
with showers and thunderstorms. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
South Florida waters.

Flooding: Showers and thunderstorms may lead to flooding in low
lying and poorly drained areas, particularly along the coast near
high tide.

Waves: Seas of 7 to 12 feet, mainly in the Gulf stream. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for all Atlantic waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Wednesday for Atlantic
waters due to east wind of 20 to 30 knots and seas of up to 12 feet
in the Gulf Stream. The risk for rip currents will likely remain high
over all Atlantic beaches during this period as well.

Strong easterly wind, along with King tide this week, will allow for
possible coastal flooding during high tides along the east coast
beaches of South Florida.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall, are
forecast through the week.
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:07 am

now I see why..nws is so confused..they see..the Tropical wave in the Bahama's coming westward...they see the storm in the Caribbean now at 30% chance..to be heading into the gulf..and..they see the Pacific 90E storm with a possible heading thru mexico into the gulf..POSSIBLE..not for sure.............lets be ready and wait this out...hopefully if ALL of them come to Florida..they will be just rain makers and nothing strong huh....I always stay extra alert OCT-NOV.
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:09 am

Guess I'm all alone here this morning,been up most of the night with barking dogs outside somewhere close..a mans job..be alert and protect...good thing nothing happened...time for rest..BBL
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:16 am

Good morning Largo. I know it's just one model and they change all the time, but it's nerve wracking to keep seeing FL with the bulls eye on it.

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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:27 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning Largo.   I know it's just one model and they change all the time, but it's nerve wracking to keep seeing FL with the bulls eye on it.
good morning Billsfan,yeah and you be careful with any flooding there next few days ok..could be a big rain maker if it verifies ok
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Post by LargoFL Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:28 pm

GFS has tropical storm force winds in central florida towards thurs/Friday.
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