CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Good Friday Morning Folks! enjoy the calm warm weather thru this weekend, a Strong cold front is coming,on this one we may need to watch out for any severe storms as it will be knocking down our temps 10-15 degree's or more Tuesday...well TGIF folks!...have a great day everyone!

Just want to mention,around the 28th or so..most models are hinting at something ok........

still time for track changes here is the CMC model....................................

Morning All,
Just got back from Talladega. All was great.
Had rain and wind Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday was in the 60's.
Felt great!!
Have a great day
John Z-hills

LargoFL wrote:still time for track changes here is the CMC model....................................

Good grief... Pass the Maalox!

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
 Just got back from Talladega. All was great.
Had rain and wind Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday was in the 60's.
Felt great!!
Have a great day
John Z-hills

Welcome back John... you saw a heck of a race!

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
 Just got back from Talladega. All was great.
Had rain and wind Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday was in the 60's.
Felt great!!
Have a great day
John Z-hills

good morning John,glad you had a good trip!!..yeah this coming front next week is really going to drop those morning temps for us..maybe 50's or high 40's by your area inland whew..l we'll see how this plays out..its getting to that time of year huh.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:still time for track changes here is the CMC model....................................

Good grief... Pass the Maalox!

yeah and if the CMC verifies..it goes up our east coast and bothers Aug's area too..but way too early yet to know for sure,but most of the models are..hinting at something forming...even the Euro is now putting a LOW down in the Caribbean..so we wait this out.

more and more I'm starting to believe the CMC model for track..its been doing a very good job this season with its upgrade...although strength of a storm it still over does it somewhat.

I'm guessing WD will have some stories on the low temps up there when this new front gets here next week too...

LOL I found this on another site..spaghetti models for the Caribbean storm../m.................

LargoFL wrote:I'm guessing WD will have some stories on the low temps up there when this new front gets here next week too...

This week we had a nice, but short lived little cool snap. Hopefully next week is the real deal. They are currently forecasting a couple of nights in the mid 40's with highs in the low 70's, just about what I consider perfect. Looking at the models of a tropical low impacting SFL makes me remember Hurricane Wilma. The entire state was watching it nervously as it hit the Yucatan peninsula and started turning towards FL. We didn't know if the cold front turning Wilma would protect most of FL, but it did the job for those in the northern part of the state. It was beautiful fall weather up here when Wilma made landfall in SFL. We had highs in the upper 60's and lows in the upper 30's! Unfortunately the front didn't clear all of FL and Wilma wollaped our neighbors to the south. Hopefully the models are just hinting at the potential and nothing comes to fruition.

yes WD here is Wilma's track..almost exactly what the CMC is saying for this next storm..

Wilma hit on Oct 26th that year..some of the models are saying this caribbean storm hits around the 28th..but Euro and Navy are slower with it..might not be till 1st week of Nov...still time for everything to change track and strength wise..hasn't formed yet but all the models are sensing something down there.

funny thing WD this next strong cold front I think..is what pulls whatever forms down there into florida,just like Wilma gee...I always stay extra alert in OCT.

well towards the end of next week they should be sure of whats coming and how strong it could be,but all this coming week... lets watch what happens down there huh.

LargoFL wrote:LOL I found this on another site..spaghetti models for the Caribbean storm../m.................

LOL Largo... Good one!

LargoFL wrote:Wilma hit on Oct 26th that year..some of the models are saying this caribbean storm hits around the 28th..but Euro and Navy are slower with it..might not be till 1st week of Nov...still time for everything to change track and strength wise..hasn't formed yet but all the models are sensing something down there.

Actually Largo... Wilma hit South Florida on 10/24...

And it is troubling... I just have a bad feeling if something does develop it will have Florida's name on it.

Afternoon everyone! Work has been a beast the past few weeks for me. I've enjoyed the upper 60's lows the last couple of days and not looking forward to the bump in temps again this week. I can't wait for a solid pattern change for us in Florida!

John, I bet Dega was loads of fun! One of these days I would like to watch a race in person. :-)

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:Wilma hit on Oct 26th that year..some of the models are saying this caribbean storm hits around the 28th..but Euro and Navy are slower with it..might not be till 1st week of Nov...still time for everything to change track and strength wise..hasn't formed yet but all the models are sensing something down there.

Actually Largo... Wilma hit South Florida on 10/24...

ok thanks Billsfan

Hiya San...say can you please lock our old blog now that we have this one up and running..thanks..glad your around again.

Hi Largo

I locked it and put the link for the new one in there.

Largo- what other weather sites do you go to? I love this place but I do miss the WU comments etc. Don't miss what WU became. Trust me!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Largo- what other weather sites do you go to?  I love this place but I do miss the WU comments etc. Don't miss what WU became.  Trust me!

I haven't found any blogs that I like ,I just cruise the web and hoping that I find something that could be useful to us here..i also sure miss our old WU blogs..i see Google has its "google Groups"...its somewhat closer to our old discussion blogs but I just surf them

Good Saturday Morning folks!!..well looks like a nice warm day ahead today....just checked and still nothing formed down in the Caribbean..until something Does form..its all model hinting huh..well enjoy the weekend folks..cool front comes in Tuesday!!!!

sangria wrote:Afternoon everyone!  Work has been a beast the past few weeks for me.   I've enjoyed the upper 60's lows the last couple of days and not looking forward to the bump in temps again this week.   I can't wait for a solid pattern change for us in Florida!

John, I bet Dega was loads of fun!  One of these days I would like to watch a race in person.  :-)

Sangria, Your bet was right. Watching is ok on tv for the replays BUT in person is much much better. I really enjoy Talladega. Been going since 1999. Now I will do Bristol night race next August.
I'm so ready for the cooler temp coming next week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
John Z-hills

Good afternoon. Not much to report here. Several hours of evening/late night work for the next two weeks in addition to the day schedule. Not really looking forward to it but the overtime pay will be nice.

I too am looking forward to the front. Loving my forecast from Jax beginning Tuesday night.

Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 71.
Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 52.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 72.
Thursday Night Clear, with a low around 58.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 77.

I'm amazed (something different ok)..amazed at just how Much everthing price wise has skyrocketed since I was 18..when I was 18 ...a new chevy Camaro ran for about $3,500 or so depending on what extra's you wanted....I just looked..at the price of a new 2018 Camaro...$43,000!!!!!!!!........you folks out there in your 30's lets say...better save Bigtime for your retirement..i cannot imagine the cost of everything 30 years from now...I always said thru my working life..i save some every paycheck..what I'm saving should carry me thru...Hello...it doesn't..never in my wildest dreams back in my 20-30-40's even..just how much the cost of everything has risen.......just writing this as a wake up call for you younger folks...save big time all thru your working years...just imagine..your turning 65..you need a new car..costs over $100,000...your insurance each year may well be over $10,000 a year....food costs? forget about it...oh..and How much did you save?..................just a good tip from a guy who did save..and is turning 68 pretty soon...whatever your saving..it wont be enough....the end lol

I bought a "used" 2014 Ford Fusion with 3k miles on it back in 2014. It was 17K and now paid off. Only has 22K miles 3 years later. I should have it another 10 years. New cars are a rip-off in my opinion. Buy used

I'm a saver. I have no debt other than my mortgage which I hope to pay off in 5-6 years with some good fortune. I have direct deposit through work (same company for 19+ years) with a fixed amount going into savings each paycheck. I am a firm believer in the emergency fund and have 17 months worth stashed away. Also contribute 5% to my 401K (wish I could do more but mortgage is my priority) with a 5% company match and an additional 3% company match at year end. We shall see how it all pans out in the end. I'm 46 so still have another 15-20 years to retirement.

StAugustineFL wrote:I bought a "used" 2014 Ford Fusion with 3k miles on it back in 2014.  It was 17K and now paid off.  Only has 22K miles 3 years later.  I should have it another 10 years.  New cars are a rip-off in my opinion.  Buy used

I'm a saver.  I have no debt other than my mortgage which I hope to pay off in 5-6 years with some good fortune.  I have direct deposit through work (same company for 19+ years) with a fixed amount going into savings each paycheck.  I am a firm believer in the emergency fund and have 17 months worth stashed away.  Also contribute 5% to my 401K (wish I could do more but mortgage is my priority) with a 5% company match and an additional 3% company match at year end.  We shall see how it all pans out in the end.  I'm 46 so still have another 15-20 years to retirement.

good for you Aug..keep saving..yeah once the mortgage is paid off hurray LOL..i remember mine..paid that off as soon as I could...im wondering if the younger folks here will even have social security 20 years from now?..and medicare etc..something is coming down the pike over the coming decades...im glad I'm nearing the finish line..when I was growing up..all the politics etc said lets take care of our older folks....somehow today..i don't get that feeling at all from them in government oh well just wanted to talk about something different today..nothing much weather wise is coming thru the weekend although..some may get some rain etc sunday evening on.

NWS Tampa..........LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Saturday)...
The big story during the period will be the arrival of the first
real cool down across the region. However, before this happens deep
moisture will overspread the area Sunday night into Monday ahead of
a mid/upper level trough and associated cold front. Warm and muggy
conditions will continue during this time with abundant clouds and
numerous showers and thunderstorms developing during the day Monday,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours as daytime heating
combines with the deep moisture and the increasing synoptic lift
ahead of the trough. Monday night into Tuesday the cold front will
move slowly southeastward across the region waiting for the
secondary mid/upper level push. The boundary should reach the Nature
Coast late Monday night and exit the southern zones Tuesday evening.
More scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
front during this time. Tuesday night into Thursday northerly flow
will usher in much cooler drier air as surface high pressure moves
across the gulf and southeast states. During Friday and Saturday the
high will shift east out into the Atlantic Ocean with a more
easterly flow setting up bringing moderating temperatures and
moisture leading to the chance of a few showers by Saturday.

&&

that Big Blob in the Caribbean is a tropical wave down there..right now just something to watch ok. but this time of year they can form pretty quickly down there..

3 models bring something across south florida in about 7-8 days..but who knows..its still way too early yet.

I'm seeing it on other sites also. On Facebook there's a WUBA group, former members of Wunderground.

NWS Tampa...........Sun Oct 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Periods of cautionary to advisory level winds can be expected over
the marine zones of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. These winds and
choppy seas will result in periods of hazardous boating conditions
for smaller craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A few thunderstorms are expected along a cold front that is
forecast to arrive Monday Night into Tuesday. Although a few
storms may contain gusty winds and frequent lightning, no
organized for widespread severe weather is expected at this time.

Good Sunday Morning folks!!..looks like a nice warm day ahead with breezy conditions,cold front is getting closer I guess...guess i'll do my lawn and garden work today ..well have a great day everyone and south Florida folks may want to just go over their supplies and prep plans..just in case something does come their way in a week.

well one good thing maybe...I don't see any mention at all from NWS Miami discussions..so unless something Does form in the caribbean..its just a model Hinting huh.

@BillsFan.  Views from the west coast:

What we've learned from the Bucs' and Bills' playoff droughts
Bucs-Bills: Things to watch in Sunday's 1 p.m. game
Bucs-Bills: Tampa Bay's fatal habit of falling behind

Thanks JR. Depressing though isn't it? It's always well NEXT year's.

LOL, Bills.
I was a season ticket holder in the orange cream-sickle days, when the only times the Big Sombrero wasn't empty, was Nov/Dec when MN/GB/Chi/Det came to town (and your least favorite superbowl 25). As long as we have Capt. Fear, we'll be better than those days.

Lol you got that right about it being my least favorite SB! Best national anthem ever IMO. Bless you for being a season ticket holder in those days.

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
153 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017

ALC003-221930-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0069.000000T0000Z-171022T1930Z/
Baldwin AL-
153 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY...

At 153 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Summerdale, or 5 miles northeast of Foley, moving
north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Robertsdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

Thanks Largo. I have family in Foley.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks Largo. I have family in Foley.

hope they are ok over there

seems like a lot of bad weather with this front in Alabama etc...........................................BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile AL
322 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017

ALC097-MSC039-041-222315-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FA.W.0020.171022T2022Z-171022T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mobile AL-George MS-Greene MS-
322 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flood Warning for Urban Areas and Small Streams in...
Northwestern Mobile County in southwestern Alabama...
George County in southeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Greene County in southeastern Mississippi...

* Until 615 PM CDT

* At 320 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain which will cause flooding. 3 to 5 inches of rain have
fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Citronelle, Lucedale, Chunchula, Gulfcrest, Semmes, Tanner
Williams, Mobile Regional Airport and Wilmer.

Additional rainfall amounts of one to two inches are possible in the
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Keep children away from storm drains, culverts, creeks and streams.
Water levels can rise rapidly and sweep children away.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 8840 3074 8841 3073 8882 3094 8875
3112 8844 3111 8833 3113 8833 3114 8815
3061 8821

$$

Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mobile AL
338 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017

ALC003-097-222330-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FA.Y.0179.171022T2038Z-171022T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mobile AL-Baldwin AL-
338 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Central Mobile County in southwestern Alabama...
West central Baldwin County in southwestern Alabama...

* Until 630 PM CDT

* At 337 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.
2 to 4 inches of rain have fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Prichard, Tillmans Corner,
Saraland, Theodore, Chickasaw, Satsuma, Creola, Axis, I65 And I165,
I65 And AL 158 and I10 And I65.

Additional rainfall of up to 2 inches is expected over the area.
This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

ok we have a yellow circle in the Caribbean,something to watch right now.......................

some tornado's were close to Foley ALA today billsfan....from Accuweather................A confirmed tornado touched down in Baldwin County, AL, near the Foley Beach Expressway & County Road 8. Radar: