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CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

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Post by StPeteFLwx Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:52 pm

LargoFL wrote:invest93 up to 80% chance of developing now..stay alert south florida etc.........CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 Two_atl_2d0

Cuba should tear it up should anything form

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Post by LargoFL Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:08 pm

StPeteFLwx wrote:
LargoFL wrote:invest93 up to 80% chance of developing now..stay alert south florida etc.........CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 Two_atl_2d0

Cuba should tear it up should anything form
yeah I'm hoping it does go over Cuba,some very high mountains there..but if it goes thru the straights..well we'll see how this plays out...some are saying at the NHC 5pm discussion they will say we now have Phillipe if I spelled that right.
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Post by LargoFL Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:25 pm

HH's are finding 39.1 mph winds in invest93 so far..we may have a tropical storm later today,im waiting for their 5pm update discussion.
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Post by LargoFL Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:42 pm

NHC Atlantic Ops‏
Verified account
 @NHC_Atlantic 4m
4 minutes ago


More
NHC will initiate advisories at 5 PM EDT on Potential Tropcial Cyclone Eighteen, currently located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea.
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Post by LargoFL Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:20 pm

we now have PTC 18 in the Caribbean..........................................CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 ?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F6c%2F88%2Fac554ad74467a85363be370cd2d7%2Fstatic-caribbean-11-am
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Post by LargoFL Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:22 pm

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Post by LargoFL Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:26 pm

well it looks like NHC expects it to go to Tropical storm,if I was in south florida,i'd be taking in things that could blow around outside etc..even a glancing blow could cause some damage..and..no track yet is set in stone..lets see what they say tomorrow morning..sure would be nice if it went over the middle of CUBA instead of the straights..would be less concern for south florida...we'll see...anyone have any thoughts on this?..well for myself my eyes are tired lol...good night folks
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Post by LargoFL Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:27 pm

oh one more thing..we'll have to see how strong-wind wise this cold front will be bringing also this weekend
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:53 pm

Thanks Largo and everyone. I have to absorb all of it. Phone died and all my contacts were lost. And pictures everything.

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Post by StAugustineFL Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:14 pm

Good afternoon. Weekend is here thank goodness. The GOM is a desert. This system in my opinion will be nothing more than a nuisance. A lawn chair or two may get tipped over.
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:58 pm

I hope you're right Aug. Hope he behaves

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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:17 am

CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 18L_tracks_latest
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:21 am

overnight CMC and Navy models place it so very near..still time to change...CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 Gem_mslp_uv850_us_6
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:25 am

Aug could be right in a way..its roughly almost 3 30 am Saturday and in their 2am update NHC still has it at 35mph winds..its going to be an interesting day and night then its over..supposedly a real fast mover...one good thing in our favor,the heaviest wind etc will be on its right side..even more so now with this strong cold front coming too,pushing it.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:30 am

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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:51 am

latest NAM model for later today..................................................................CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 Fl5
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:00 am

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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:02 am

ok as of 5am Saturday here is the latest thinking on possible TS winds...................CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 204902_most_likely_toa_34
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:06 am

Good Saturday Morning folks!..not as cold here this morning and hardly a breeze here by me...some interesting weather ahead for us , a possible TS coming real close to SE Florida maybe overnight and then a strong cold front pushes thru Florida knocking my area back into the 70/50 temps...well have a great day everyone!..time for COFFEE..lol
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:54 am

PTC18...................HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce
the following rainfall totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
landslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may
produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central
Bahamas tonight or early Sunday.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far
South Florida and the Florida Keys from midday through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:12 am

NWS Miami......Sat Oct 28 2017

...Deteriorating Conditions as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 Approaches...
...Isolated Tornadoes Possible This Afternoon and Evening...
...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Tonight...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the
Atlantic beaches.

Thunderstorms: Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 over the northwestern
Caribbean is forecast to move north-northeast across western Cuba
later today, and into the Florida Straits and Northwestern Bahamas
late tonight. Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms from this
system are expected to overspread South Florida starting later this
morning, and continue through the overnight hours. A few strong to
severe storms will be possible, along with locally heavy rainfall and
isolated tornadoes.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible today,
especially this afternoon and evening.

Wind: A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening, which may produce wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. In
addition, conditions will become hazardous over the local Atlantic
and Gulf waters as sustained winds increase with the approach and
passage of Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. A Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect for all of the local Atlantic waters.

Flooding: There is a reasonable threat of minor flooding of streets
and poor drainage areas due to heavy rainfall this afternoon and
tonight. The heaviest rainfall may lead to to substantial ponding of
water, leading to lane closures on roadways, especially in the most
vulnerable areas.

Waves: Seas will build to 7 to 11 feet well offshore Miami-Dade
County as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is forecast to cross through
the local Atlantic waters late this evening and overnight.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:25 am

CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL18_storm_info_1280x720
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:27 am

Miami area..your under a Tropical Storm Watch now..................................................WTNT33 KNHC 281459
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 82.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of southeastern
Florida and the upper Florida Keys from Craig Key to Golden Beach.


Last edited by LargoFL on Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:41 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:30 am

we just may have a tropical storm forming later today...southeast florida folks stay alert folks....this morning my local met said some area's in south florida could...get 6 inches of rain...then add the possible TS winds and gusts etc..stay alert and safe folks.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:33 am

NOTICE..some of the ensemble model tracks take it almost into fort Meyers area then crosses .CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 Storm_18_ens
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:33 am

stay alert folks till this is in the Bahama's..im guessing tropical storm warnings will be issued for south florida onland..there already are tropical storm warnings for offshore,atlantic and gulf sides of south florida.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:54 am

CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 Mfl
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:08 pm

billsfan your area under a flood watch till 4am sunday ok..be careful driving.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:09 pm

well guess I'm alone here today..BBL
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:22 pm

Hi Largo. Thanks for updates. Hope it isn't too bad. My daughter has to drive home from work at 3:00 am.

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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:14 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi Largo.  Thanks for updates.  Hope it isn't too bad.  My daughter has to drive home from work at 3:00 am.
ok looks like a big rain maker for sure.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:15 pm

wow..hope all this rain makes it to my area..............................................CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 1509212101
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:19 pm

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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:20 pm

I see miami had a tornado warning about an hour ago
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:22 pm

NHC 2pm sat discussion (clip)......DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located by weather radars from Cuba and Grand Cayman near
latitude 21.8 North, longitude 82.4 West. The depression is moving
toward the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A motion toward the northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move across
west-central Cuba this afternoon and evening, across the Straits of
Florida and near the Florida Keys overnight, and across the
northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across extreme
southern Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:26 pm

Good luck getting some rain Largo. Getting it from west and south.

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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:35 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good luck getting some rain Largo.   Getting it from west and south.
ok, it looks like your possible bad weather will be overnight into sunday morning..lets hope it stays a TD..should weaken somewhat as it goes over Cuba I would think.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:36 pm

come on..you can make it here LOL......................................................CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 WUNIDS_map?station=TPA&brand=wui&num=12&delay=15&type=TR0&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&t=1315660358&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map
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Post by LargoFL Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:40 pm

guess we are Lucky this coming front will push TD!* away from florida mostly....CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather - Page 5 Gulf_wind
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:47 pm

We have Phillippe
Hopefully most of the nasty stays offshore.

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:08 pm

Nothing but rain, very heavy at times, no wind so far. Hope it starts to move more NE as opposed to N.

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:17 pm

Odd. They are showing Philippe' s center off of Naples? Ummm, what?

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:24 pm

Well anyway. Lots of rain I expect. Nothing much more I hope

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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 29, 2017 5:25 am

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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 29, 2017 5:28 am

Good Sunday Morning folks!...well rain has stopped I think here,almost 5 30am but real windy,local met says its gusting to 24mph here..guess the cold front is pushing in now....hope everything is ok down in south florida..well have a great day everyone!
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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:30 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Odd. They are showing Philippe' s center off of Naples?  Ummm, what?  
yeah he tried to go up in the gulf but was blown back down SE...
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Post by LargoFL Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:30 am

NWS Tampa.........Sun Oct 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
Gusty winds of 20 to 25 MPH will affect the region behind a cold
front today. These winds will cause hazardous boating conditions
on area lakes. High profile vehicles should use extra caution
especially if traveling over bridges or high overpasses.
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Post by StAugustineFL Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:49 am

Morning. Glad to see Phillippe out of the way. Hopefully that's the last named system to impact the US this year.

A cool 48 hours coming up here. 65 today, 40 tonight, 67 tomorrow, 48 tomorrow night. Then 75-80 the rest of the week with no rain. Dry season is upon us I suspect.
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Post by sangria Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:06 am

Brrr.... the front is moving through here. Temps have dropped several degrees and it is quite breezy.
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Post by StAugustineFL Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:15 am

sangria wrote:Brrr.... the front is moving through here.  Temps have dropped several degrees and it is quite breezy.  

Same here. 62 degrees and quite breezy with solid overcast. Looking at Jax vis though skies should clear by 11 but temps remain nearly steady for the day.
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