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Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:00 am


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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:01 am

Good Thursday Morning Folks!..another nice warm day ahead for us..no fog by me so far..........well have a great day everyone!

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by severstorm on Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:27 am

LargoFL wrote:Good Thursday Morning Folks!..another nice warm day ahead for us..no fog by me so far..........well have a great day everyone!

Morning All, I have to agree with WD, Its getting really dry out this way also.
I was reading the same things about the fall winter weather but The Old Farmers Almanac says we could be cooler and wetter if the NOA is going to tilt to negative instead of positive. Which they give it a 60% chance. Interesting to say the least. We will have to wait and see.
Have a great day all!!!
John Z-hills

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:15 am

severstorm wrote:
LargoFL wrote:Good Thursday Morning Folks!..another nice warm day ahead for us..no fog by me so far..........well have a great day everyone!

Morning All, I have to agree with WD, Its getting really dry out this way also.
I was reading the same things about the fall winter weather but The Old Farmers Almanac says we could be cooler and wetter if the NOA is going to tilt to negative instead of positive. Which they give it a 60% chance. Interesting to say the least. We will have to wait and see.
Have a great day all!!!
John Z-hills
Hiya john,yes a wetter winter season would be great if it does happen.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:15 am


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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:30 am

models still hinting something around the 18th-19th..we'll see what happens.......

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:20 am

WD you may get some of these showers out in the gulf this evening if they hold together.


Last edited by LargoFL on Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:22 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:29 am


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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:29 am

it looks like a lot of stormy weather heading to the islands,just what PR doesn't need huh.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:37 pm

it looks like Jenny and Aug will be the first to experience the coming cool front in their area's thru tonight and early AM tomorrow,might be some wind with this.we'll see how it plays out..then down thru florida tomorrow

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:38 pm

local met says a stronger cold front comes early next week..so its that time of year here once again.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:39 pm

7-day for tampa bay area.............................................................

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:32 pm

well it sure was one beautiful day here,took the long walk in the park,birds were singing,really nice day here...hope its the same where you are...

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:18 pm

Be careful driving up there Aug...wind advisory........................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
343 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

...Strong Northeasterly Winds Develop on Friday Evening and
Will Persist through Saturday in Coastal Locations...
...High Surf and a High Risk of Rip Currents Expected this
Weekend...

.Currently...
Afternoon surface analysis depicts a now slowly moving cold front
extending from the northern Suwannee Valley east-northeastward
across the Florida/Georgia border. High pressure (1028 millibars)
extends from New England southward to the Tennessee Valley in the
wake of this front. Meanwhile, a strong cold front was positioned
from the Great Lakes states through the Plains states, with an
arctic high pressure center (1035 millibars) building over the
Dakotas. Aloft...a potent shortwave trough was progressing
eastward through central Georgia, with another shortwave trough
moving across southern Quebec, which is carving out a longwave
trough that is digging into the northern Plains states. Elevated
convection developed just behind the cold front during the early
afternoon hours near the Okefenokee Swamp, with a area of mostly
stratiform rainfall associated with the shortwave trough
progressing northeastward along the Ocmulgee/Altamaha River
basins. Low stratus ceilings are locked in place behind the
frontal boundary over southeast Georgia, where temperatures have
remained in the 55-60 degree range today, except lower 60s at the
coast. To the south of the front, temperatures were generally in
the 75-80 degree range, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.

.Near Term /This Afternoon through Friday night/...
The shortwave trough will progress eastward across eastern
Georgia and southern South Carolina this evening, moving into the
Atlantic waters off the Carolina coast after midnight. This
feature is providing a push to the previously stationary frontal
boundary along the FL/GA border, and scattered convection
developing along this boundary will progress quickly eastward
across coastal southeast Georgia and the Interstate 10 corridor in
northeast Florida late this afternoon through the early evening
hours. Steepening lapse rates and elevated instability could
produce one or The front will sweep through north central Florida
shortly after midnight, with cool air advection overtaking our
Florida counties and low stratus ceilings expanding southward from
southeast Georgia overnight. Lows tonight will range from the
upper 40s for locations north of Waycross to near 60 along coastal
northeast Florida.

Northwesterly flow aloft will strengthen over our region in the
wake of the departing shortwave on Friday, bringing a drier air
mass into our area by the late morning hours. Low stratus ceilings
may linger over the coastal counties through the mid-morning, with
clearing skies from northwest to southeast during the late morning
and early afternoon hours. Our local pressure gradient will begin
to tighten as strong high pressure builds into the southeastern
states, with breezy north-northeasterly winds expected along and
east of I-95. Coastal highs will remain in the mid to upper 60s,
with plenty of sunshine boosting inland highs into the upper 60s
to near 70, except lower 70s over north central Florida. These
highs are about 4-8 degrees below mid-November climatology.

Our local pressure gradient will tighten further on Friday night
as the strong high pressure center progresses slowly eastward to a
position over the eastern Great Lakes and wedges southward down
the U.S. eastern seaboard. This high pressure will bring a blast
of arctic air into portions of the southern states, and this cold
air blowing over our abnormally warm ocean temperatures will
result in strengthening wind speeds overnight in coastal
locations. A wind advisory may be necessary after midnight for
locations east of I-95, where northeasterly winds will strengthen
to 20-25 mph with occasional gusts to 35 mph. This strong onshore
flow and impressive cold air advection will introduce a rather
large temperature gradient over our area, with lows falling to the
lower 40s for locations north of Waycross, with 40s extending into
the northern Suwannee Valley. The tightening gradient over
northeast and north central Florida as well as coastal southeast
Georgia will keep lows in the 50s, except lower 60s at the
immediate coast from St. Augustine southward. Strengthening
coastal convergence resulting from the increasing northeasterly
flow will drive isolated to widely scattered showers onshore into
the coastal counties of northeast Florida, mainly from St.
Augustine southward.

.Short Term /Saturday through Sunday Night/...
Nor`easter conditions across the region will begin to subside
some as the strong high across the mid Atlantic region weakens and
retreats north. Long fetch of northeast winds will continue to
bring in Atlantic moisture which will produce a few coastal
showers, otherwise dry conditions will prevail elsewhere. Temps
held to below normal across Se GA but near normal temps across Ne
FL.

.Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
Another mid/upper shortwave trough will swing across the region
and send another cold front through our area on Monday which
brings in another re-enforcement of dry air. Another surge of
northeast winds behind this next front although not as strong
as previous one. Temps held to below normal most areas extreme
the extreme south and southeast portion.

&&

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:20 pm

and might be some showers east coast............................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
355 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Boating and Surf Conditions Deteriorate Friday; Become
Hazardous This Weekend...

Tonight/Fri...Fast moving short wave trough on track to push
offshore the SE US coast this evening which will allow a weak cool
front which has been hanging out across north FL all day to sweep
southward across the area late tonight and Friday.

Isolated showers this evening around Lake Okeechobee assocd with
lake/sea breeze interactions combined with a pocket of higher
moisture. Farther north, there is not a lot of convergence or
upper support with this front so the best chance for isolated
showers should be confined to the Volusia and Brevard coasts
in increasing northerly flow overnight. But forecast model
soundings indicate considerable stratus developing behind the
front and with a quick veering of winds behind the front, the low
clouds should hang on well into Friday esp along the coast.

Low level moisture will remain shallow so do not expect any
lightning over the next 24 hours. But the onshore flow should
produce isolated to scattered showers esp along the Treasure coast
which is closer to the warmer gulf stream.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:21 pm

well good night from my end here..post how the front is over Your area folks ok..tomorrow might get a touch interesting huh.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:03 pm

Thanks Largo!

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:24 am

cool here outside this morning..enjoy folks...................................

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:37 am

well doesn't seem like any weather concerns for my area other than some cooler temps and possible fog inland..looks like a nice day today..got to take that LONG walk again today..glad the cooler temps came lol..

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:38 am

Good morning. The cold front blew through here at some point yesterday evening. I had a 1 minute rain around 7:30 that surprised me. Got a whopping .03". Temps yesterday were around 83. Today only 68 then 70's for high with 50's for lows the next week. Perfect temps.

Hope everyone else gets to enjoy some cooler weather.
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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:52 am

well almost noon and still in the 60's here and solid overcast..local met say's 94% humidity so its cool but feels damp..probably going to be some good fog here tonight well have a great day everyone!! TGIF huh weekend is fast approaching.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:42 pm

Downright warm down by us today. 86-87

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:17 pm

We have rain! Not much, but I'm sure the lawn loved it.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:20 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:We have rain!   Not much, but I'm sure the lawn loved it.
good luck down there Billsfan..really dry up here but its the season huh.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:01 am

Billsfan, it looks like Sun/Mon your rain chances are 80-90% good luck down there ok..looks pretty dry for me so far..guess i'll put the sprinklers on tomorrow.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:05 am

Good Saturday Morning Folks and Happy Veterans Day to all the VETS out there..enjoy YOUR special day ok!..well NWS is saying a slightly warmer next few days in case you have things outdoors to do..with just a slight chance of a passing shower,more so over on the east coast...well have a great day everyone!!

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:08 am

watch for coastal flooding all along east coast,especially Jacksonville area etc....

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:15 pm

well just after 12pm and some light showers crossing central florida now............

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:19 pm

well so far model wise..our tropical season is over thank goodness huh.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:58 pm

Good afternoon. Spent some time with my daughter and 4 month old grandson today. Took a nice walk. Temps are quite pleasant.

Glad to see the season over. Blink your eye and the 2018 season will be knocking at the door. If La Nina is around then it could be interesting.
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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:42 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.  Spent some time with my daughter and 4 month old grandson today.  Took a nice walk.  Temps are quite pleasant.

Glad to see the season over.  Blink your eye and the 2018 season will be knocking at the door.  If La Nina is around then it could be interesting.
ah aren't grand children the greatest Aug?..i have 2 over in California..wish they lived closer but folks have to live close to work huh...yeah I'm still watching the tropics and..any tail end fronts in the gulf..so far we look ok thru Thanksgiving but who knows huh...love the temps here right now around here.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:42 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
219 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon-Sunday)...
A few features of interest to produce some increasing cloud
cover and light rain showers for the area to finish the
weekend. Cold Arctic high pressure over the Mid Atlantic
states down the Eastern Seaboard with stalling front over S
FL to keep fairly tight pressure gradient over the region
with NE-E low level flow in place. Weak inverted trough off
the Space Coast to enhance extra lift with some overrunning
and enhanced lift aloft. Atlantic moisture to remain trapped
below 10k ft inversion for isolated to scattered low topped
showers focused mainly in Central and W Central FL zones.
Cold air to remain well NE of the local area as additional
surface moisture and cloud cover to keep temps above seasonal
values tonight and Sunday.

.Long Term (Sunday Night-Saturday)...
Nearly zonal flow aloft for Sunday night into Monday will become
more northeast over Florida as a shortwave moves off the eastern
seaboard. This will push a dry cold front into the peninsula Monday
night into Tuesday. Some slightly cooler and drier air will filter
into the region for the rest of the week, with high temperatures
generally in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s. Dew points will also
drop by several degrees, making the outdoors feel quite pleasant.
Overall, it will be a fairly quiet week with fairly low rain chances
for the most part. With any rain that does fall, high accumulations
are not expected. The only issue weather-wise will be some possible
late night and early morning fog across the region.

Global models are continuing to show a stronger disturbance moving
into the northeast Friday night into Saturday, with another cold
front approaching the region, bringing a chance for rain to the
northern part of the forecast area.

&&

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:46 pm

well almost 3pm and the inland showers still coming across...don't know if they will reach us JR..maybe later this evening

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:51 pm

Billsfan..next few days forecast from NWS Miami..............Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Monday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Northeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:31 pm

Thanks Largo. Two inches in the gauged. Surprised and pleased! Hope you get some too!

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:40 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks Largo.  Two inches in the gauged.  Surprised and pleased!   Hope you get some too!
thanks Billsfan, not a drop here once again..doesn't look good for the coming week either..all east coast if the models are right.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:44 pm

it seems yet another front coming next week...................

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:36 am

Good Sunday Morning folks!..looks like our slight warm up continues today and only a slight chance for rain in my area again today..good luck to those who DO get some rain...well have a wonderful day everyone.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:11 am

Good morning all.

Yeah Largo, the little nugget is starting to get some personality now. Can't wait til he gets a little older and can walk/talk and I can do more with him.

Had a couple of very light showers yesterday. .06".
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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:33 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Good morning all.

Yeah Largo, the little nugget is starting to get some personality now.  Can't wait til he gets a little older and can walk/talk and I can do more with him.

Had a couple of very light showers yesterday.  .06".  
that's great AUG..once they can walk and talk..all the action starts lol..well some sprinkly mist with some drops in it has finally arrived here..if this goes on for an hour..the street might get wet lol..but..every drop counts huh.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:34 am


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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:54 am

well some pretty good breezes here today and ground is sort of wet now by me.......

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:01 am

for Gomes area.......................Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
946 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...Low clouds, light rain and drizzle will continue over
extreme southwestern portions of the forecast area through most of
the morning, but mesoscale models indicate pcpn to gradually
taper of this afternoon. However, do expect mostly cloudy skies
to persist across most of the forecast area today. Mid morning
temperatures across the area are still primarily in the upper 50s
with a few low 60s along immediate coast. Still expect highs today
in the 60s, but more likely low to mid 60s across most of the area
rather than the previously forecasted mid to upper 60s. Will
monitor temp trends a little longer before making any changes to
grids, but will likely be making updates to lower PoPs for most
areas later today. 12/DS

&&

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:02 pm

can YOU imagine..temps dropping 70 degree's in a matter of hours?................this from weather channel............................................At a Glance
A historic cold front plunged through Plains and Midwest on Nov. 11, 1911.
Temperature drops of more than 70 degrees were recorded in a matter of hours.
Strong tornadoes were followed by blizzard conditions in the Midwest.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:18 pm

No I cannot imagine that temp drop, then tornadoes followed by a blizzard. Imagine people totally freaking out over this? Social media would explode!

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:13 pm

I haven't experienced a temp drop that significant but do recall when I was living in Missouri during the 5th grade it was in the 70's going to school and about 30 leaving school.

I remember just a few years ago the Kansas City area was under tornado watches/warnings and also winter storm warnings with a sharp cold front dropping temps over a few hours. There was also an arctic blast that reached down to Oklahoma 3-4 years ago. One day it got down to -35 and less than a week later it was in the 70's. Over 100 degree turnaround.
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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:23 am

NWS Miami.....Mon Nov 13 2017

...High Risk of Rip Currents for the Atlantic Beaches...
...Hazardous Marine Conditions for the Atlantic Waters this Morning...


This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic
beaches of South Florida.

Waves: Seas are forecast to be around 7 feet across most of the
Atlantic waters this morning.

Wind: The wind across the Atlantic waters is forecast to be 15 to 20
knots today. The wind over the offshore Gulf waters is forecast to
increase to 20 to 25 kts this evening.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across much
of South Florida. The main hazard will be lightning.


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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:26 am

I guess we can so far..thank these fronts for keeping this from forming below us..

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by LargoFL on Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:07 am

Good Monday Morning folks!...well temp wise we are just about back to normal for November,and probably a dry week as well..probably a good thing for all the folks shopping and doing things outdoors.................Have a wonderful day everyone!!

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Post by waterdipper on Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:13 am

Gorgeous weekend temperature wise. Nice to be outdoors. Way too dry however. I mowed over the weekend and inhaled way too much dust. I normally don't have to mow this time of year, but my mower went down at the end of the summer and I hadn't gotten around to mowing since I got a new one. Still have a bit to finish, but then it won't be until April time frame when it will need it again.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

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