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1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

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1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:08 am

It's been a brutal couple of weeks for a majority of the CONUS with even us southerners shivering for days but, as is usually the case, a January thaw offering relief from the cold is on the way for many.  I'll only post the CPC outlooks but warmth (or at least normal temps) seems to be on tap as a whole for the remainder of the month.  

Note about the below maps - the deeper oranges/reds don't mean "OMG, I'm melting!" but rather show the probability of temperatures being above average.  Could be 2 degrees above normal or could be 15 degrees above normal.  That remains to be seen.

6-10 day outlook


8-14 day outlook


3-4 week outlook
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:48 am

May be a relatively wet January when said and done. We shall see.
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by sangria on Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:57 am

I wouldn't hold my breath on the precip outlook!!


6-10 Day Outlook



8-14 Day Outlook



January One Month Outlook
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:13 am

San: Did you win the Lotto??? Someone did in NPR.
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:18 am

Thanks for the Outlooks, Aug and San. Looks good to me.

3 frost nights a row -- looking forward to Monday, then a chance for rain.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:45 am

well warming up some here, mid 40's now central Pinellas.now that the sun's out

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:48 am

JRnOldsmar wrote:San:  Did you win the Lotto???  Someone did in NPR.

If she did I want a 3% cut, lol
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:33 pm

I still say, when they have the prize get this big,they should have 450 winners of one million each...THEN you would see Massive ticket buying.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by sangria on Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:28 pm

JRnOldsmar wrote:San:  Did you win the Lotto???  Someone did in NPR.

LOL JR, I wish! I just saw it on FB
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:58 pm

The lotto line at Publix was very long today. Powerball is up to like 400 million also

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:58 pm

Just FYI - I'll be out of pocket for the next week. My dad passed away a few hours ago.
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by PuppyToes on Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:00 pm

Hi all. Well all my plants look like they were hit with 24D. It’s a sad state of affairs I’m telling you. Bananas will come back. Mango and avocado are iffy. Citrus who knows. Is this weather something we should expect now and then or a complete anomaly?? Hope you all had a great Christmas and New Year.
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:03 pm

Oh gosh Aug. So sorry for you

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by PuppyToes on Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:04 pm

I’m sorry about your Dad passing Aug. I lost my brother on 12/23 God rest his soul.
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:30 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Just FYI - I'll be out of pocket for the next week.  My dad passed away a few hours ago.
OMG Aug,im sorry for your loss,geez My dad passed away many years ago, my prayers for your dad and the family ok

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:34 am

Good Sunday Morning folks..temps in the Low 40's here by my area this early morning but so far doesn't look like I got a freeze overnight thank goodness, and a warm up looks to start today,we'll see if this happens.......again my prayers for Aug's dad and the family ok.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:37 am

PT yes we'll have to see how much damage occurred to our plants and fruit tree's..i have 4 banana trees and so far they look ok but my veggie and spice garden took a big hit, probably lost them all.i wont restart whatever I lost for a few months, to be sure we don't get yet another freeze.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:41 am

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
223 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018


FLZ021-024-025-030>032-035>037-040-071400-
/O.EXT.KJAX.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180107T1400Z/
Suwannee-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-Bradford-Clay-Gilchrist-
Alachua-Putnam-Marion-
Including the cities of Houston, Live Oak, McAlpin, Newburn,
Suwannee Springs, Ratliff, Hilliard, Kings Ferry, Bryceville,
Normandy, Ortega, Riverside, San Marco, Lake Butler, Starke,
New River, Doctors Inlet, Lakeside, Bellair, Middleburg,
Orange Park, Trenton, Gainesville, Gainesville Airport,
Newnans Lake, Bostwick, Carraway, Palatka, Anthony, Burbank,
Ocala, Ocala Airport, and Weirsdale
223 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018

...FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s with frost.

* IMPACTS...People should take action to protect pets...pipes...
the elderly, and tender vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
expected for at least 2 hours. Appropriate action should be
taken to ensure tender vegetation and outdoor pets have adequate
protection from the cold temperatures. Young children, the
elderly and the homeless are especially vulnerable to the cold.
Take measures to protect them.

&&

$$

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:45 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Just FYI - I'll be out of pocket for the next week.  My dad passed away a few hours ago.

Saddened by your loss, Aug. You and your family are in my prayers.
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:09 am

PuppyToes wrote:Hi all. Well all my plants look like they were hit with 24D. It’s a sad state of affairs I’m telling you. Bananas will come back.  Mango and avocado are iffy. Citrus who knows. Is this weather something we should expect now and then or a complete anomaly??  Hope you all had a great Christmas and New Year.

And the same for you, PT. My prayers for you and yours. My Mom lost her younger sister (not unexpectedly) on Christmas day.

My bananas took a good hit as well, but I was looking for a reason to start a new stand anyway. Zero production this year. You should just chop those to the ground (heavily mulched) and let them start again. Left intact, it's possible that even when they start growing again, they're likely to not be healthy. This could be true of some citrus as well, but you might not know for at least 2 bloom seasons.

Everything else just needs to wait on new growth to see how it comes back.

Yes, you can expect this now and then. We used to be able to depend upon a freeze or 2 every other year or so, in the near coastal regions (e.g. C/N.Pinellas). One year (2010?) there was an entire week that went below freezing each night. Unluckily, I was working in Missouri at the time, and it never got above freezing that week. Since then, I've focused on more tolerant plants, since I lost quit a number of plants that year. I refuse to cover things anymore.
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:17 pm

yeah sometimes a good freeze is good for us, gets rid of a lot of insects too..well it warmed up nicely here this afternoon..looks like the rest of the week it gets better then another front comes I think on the weekend...........

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:56 am

Good Early Monday Morning folks!..well mid 50's here in my area,not as cold today and looks like 70's are back till this coming weekend when another front comes..and I'm getting over this blasted head and chest cold..ugh...local met put In a slight chance of a shower each day,nothing big it seems.....well have a great day everyone

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:49 am

well a cold breeze here on the coast by me,but still mid 50's..just looked at our state radars and around the Pensacola area up in the far western panhandle..ALOT of rain and stormy weather,thats about all the bad weather I can see so far..its almost 6am and a warm up IS coming lol.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by waterdipper on Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:49 am

So sorry for your loss Aug. Losing a parent is something I have not had to deal with as of yet fortunately, and I am sure it is something you can never fully prepare for.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by waterdipper on Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:58 am

The lows this weekend were in the 20's both days and we had a heavy frost on top of it on Sunday AM, even though NWS Ruskin decided temps weren't going to reach freezing and issued no warning for a freeze or frost. Luckily I was prepared anyhow. Now, after a cold two week period, the warm up started yesterday afternoon as it got up to 63 degrees at my place and looks like it might hit 70 everyday this week if the sun comes out. Today, it is a cloudy 43 degrees with a 10 mph wind making it feel quite cold out. Hopefully the sun will burn through the clouds or it is going to be well below forecast today.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by waterdipper on Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:05 am

As far as the long range forecast for warmer than normal end of January and beginning of February, I am not sold and neither are all the models. The CPC climate outlooks are in my opinion one of the poorest weather products NOAA produces. They are rarely accurate and I am not sure anybody is validating them to see how close they came to predicting the long term temp or precip anomalies.
My local 10 day forecast on WU is calling for a strong front to come through on Friday and freezing temps in the AM on Sunday and Monday, and highs in the mid 50's. I am sure this is based off of the Euro and not the GFS the CPC relies on. We will see who wins out. I for one and hoping for some more cold, and definitely don't want to see 80's anytime soon.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:30 am

yes still solid overcast and cold here with this breeze,hope the sun does break thru and warm it up some..I wonder how it is down around Billsfan's area..probably a bit warmer huh?

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by StPeteFLwx on Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:13 am

LargoFL wrote:Good Early Monday Morning folks!..well mid 50's here in my area,not as cold today and looks like 70's are back...

Looks like we survived another brutal Florida winter

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by severstorm on Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:25 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Just FYI - I'll be out of pocket for the next week.  My dad passed away a few hours ago.



Sorry for your loss! Crying or Very sad

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by severstorm on Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:36 am

waterdipper wrote:As far as the long range forecast for warmer than normal end of January and beginning of February, I am not sold and neither are all the models. The CPC climate outlooks are in my opinion one of the poorest weather products NOAA produces. They are rarely accurate and I am not sure anybody is validating them to see how close they came to predicting the long term temp or precip anomalies.
My local 10 day forecast on WU is calling for a strong front to come through on Friday and freezing temps in the AM on Sunday and Monday, and highs in the mid 50's. I am sure this is based off of the Euro and not the GFS the CPC relies on. We will see who wins out. I for one and hoping for some more cold, and definitely don't want to see 80's anytime soon.

Morning All,
Waterdipper totally agree with your thinking on the end of the month and the beginning of Feb. I also don't want 80's as I would like to enjoy some cooler weather before it gets hot in a few months. Yes another cold snap would be perfect to get rid of more pest.
I also was in the 20's sat and sun. Managed to make it up to 66 sunday afternoon.
Have a great day!!!!
John Z-hills

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:27 pm

hiya John..for me I like these 70/50 temps..perfect for doing things outdoors..and the dogs love it too..80's too hot for us,we are just getting sort of used to these cold temps...our blood is thickening so we can endure the Cold temps..80's now would be terrible...health wise too

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:28 pm

well made it finally to 70 in my area..im a happy camper lol.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:00 pm

Hi everyone. It got up to 79 in my area today. Now it's totally overcast, spitting a little bit. Supposed to rain tomorrow I think.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:06 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi everyone.  It got up to 79 in my area today.  Now it's totally overcast, spitting a little bit.  Supposed to rain tomorrow I think.
Hiya Billsfan,looks like your in the warmest spot today, although its nice up here also, about 70 now...saw some showers down to the north of you this morning too on radar..well have a great evening ok!

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:07 pm

JOHN...was this anywhere near you yesterday?......................1 dead in skydiving incident in Zephyrhills

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by sangria on Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:37 pm

Howdy all..... What a change a day or two makes! I enjoyed our cold snap last week but am also enjoying the warm up this week. Since I'm coastal Pasco I don't usually get to freezing, but I did a couple of mornings. Looks like I'll get to partake in the next round on Sun/Mon, just not as cold as the last one.

I'm with you JR, I have my plumerias and adeniums that have to either come inside or be covered, but aside from those I don't cover any other plants.

Hey Largo, I think there is a skydiving company that operates out in Zephyrhills. I haven't seen the story but I would hate to think it was a parachute malfunction. That makes me squirm!
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:03 am

sangria wrote:Howdy all.....   What a change a day or two makes!  I enjoyed our cold snap last week but am also enjoying the warm up this week.  Since I'm coastal Pasco I don't usually get to freezing, but I did a couple of mornings.  Looks like I'll get to partake in the next round on Sun/Mon, just not as cold as the last one.

I'm with you JR, I have my plumerias and adeniums that have to either come inside or be covered, but aside from those I don't cover any other plants.  

Hey Largo, I think there is a skydiving company that operates out in Zephyrhills.  I haven't seen the story but I would hate to think it was a parachute malfunction.  That makes me squirm!
Hiya Sang..yeah I saw a follow up story and somehow they say it wasn't an equipment malfunction, he never pulled the cord or something like that gee......yes I too am enjoying the warm up I like 70/50 temps a lot.....now we wait for the weekend change once again lol.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:06 am

Good Tuesday Morning folks..just after 4am and its raining pretty good here in my area..everything is soaking wet outside..YESSSS..i needed this rain badly..and at 59 degree's the warm up has begun.......have a great day folks...drive careful ok..

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:02 am

well rains have moved inland and also north of me,i picked up .85 inches..im happy with that, been so dry here..WD and John probably are getting some now too...good luck....well still 59 by me but around my county already 62-63 degree's might be going to 70 if the sun breaks thru.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:03 am

oh as for that sky diver death..investigation is ongoing news says.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:04 am

I can imagine the thrill some may get from sky diving, what I don't understand is..why..jump out of a perfectly good airplane? ...risking death?

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by JRnOldsmar on Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:27 am

LargoFL wrote:well rains have moved inland and also north of me,i picked up .85 inches..im happy with that, been so dry here..WD and John probably are getting some now too...good luck....well still 59 by me but around my county already 62-63 degree's might be going to 70 if the sun breaks thru.

Almost an inch here, as well. Perfect. Smile

I don't even cover the Plumerias or Desert Rose. They both seem to have come through fine. I think that the Plumerias do better with cold when they are leaf-less. I don't know why, but it sure seems that way. Maybe it's just an early freeze that hits them harder. Late fall I 'de-leaf' them. They usually are loaded with that orange fungus by then anyway.
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:03 am

JRnOldsmar wrote:
LargoFL wrote:well rains have moved inland and also north of me,i picked up .85 inches..im happy with that, been so dry here..WD and John probably are getting some now too...good luck....well still 59 by me but around my county already 62-63 degree's might be going to 70 if the sun breaks thru.

Almost an inch here, as well.  Perfect.  Smile

I don't even cover the Plumerias or Desert Rose.  They both seem to have come through fine.  I think that the Plumerias do better with cold when they are leaf-less.  I don't know why, but it sure seems that way.  Maybe it's just an early freeze that hits them harder.  Late fall I 'de-leaf' them.  They usually are loaded with that orange fungus by then anyway.
good morning JR,yes we got some good rain this morning,most of my plants got thru the cold ok too.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:05 am

from baynews9.........Rainfall totals across the Bay area at 7 a.m.
.95” Largo
.85” Clearwater
.74” Westchase
.65” Zephyrhills
.64” Plant City
.58” St. Petersburg
.57” Brooksville
.54” Bradenton
.50” Tampa
.33” Lakewood Ranch
.32” Ruskin
.25” New Port Richey
.25” Bartow
.23” Crystal River
.08” Winter Haven

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:07 am

there is a gulf low out there, its supposed to head down to the FL straights then fizzle out as it moves into the ATL..just scattered showers now around the state...

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:08 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
950 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The area of showers from early this morning has weakened and
lifted north and is currently impacting just the northern
half of the area. Low ceilings and patchy fog are starting
to lift/dissipate. Another round of scattered showers is
expected to move north through the area later this
afternoon with temperatures on track to reach into generally
the mid 70s. Will update the zones to remove the morning
fog, but rest of the forecast is on track.

&&

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:10 am

ah so that's why the cities street sweeper is doing its thing around my area now...only time I see that truck is when its supposed to rain.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:42 pm

well looks like the scattered showers have moved over to the east coast and southern florida..good luck down there.

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by LargoFL on Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:59 pm

NWS Miami............Tue Jan 9 2018

...High Risk of Rip Currents Atlantic Beaches...
...Isolated Thunderstorms Over the Atlantic and Adjacent East Coast...
...Patchy Fog Across South Florida Overnight...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip Currents: There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents along the
Atlantic beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms will continue over the local
Atlantic waters through the remainder of today and tonight. A few
storms may brush the east coast metro areas of South Florida at
times. Lightning strikes and brief gusty winds will be the primary
hazard with the thunderstorms.

Visibility: Patchy fog is possible across most of South Florida
tonight. Visibilities may drop below 1 mile at times in fog.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

The threat of rip currents will remain elevated along the east coast
beaches of South Florida through remainder of the week before
decreasing this weekend. The rip current risk may increase along the
Gulf beaches this weekend.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Atlantic waters on
Wednesday. Lightning strikes will be the primary hazard with the
thunderstorms.

Low temperatures could fall into the 40s over the interior and west
coast metro areas of South Florida late this weekend into early next
week behind a cold front.

Gusty northwest winds may lead to hazardous boating conditions behind
a cold front late this week into the upcoming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

Post by sangria on Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:50 pm

Howdy everyone......

That rain was music to the ears this morning! I have .51" in the rain gauge and currently have overcast skies.
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Re: 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

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