Re: CLOSED 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw!

by LargoFL Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:20 am

waterdipper wrote:It was another great weekend here in Levy county. Saturday was a strange weather day. Cold in the AM with frost, we got up to 60 by afternoon, then the clouds and cold rolled back in the afternoon and it cooled back into the 40's by 5PM. Sunday was much nicer with a high near 70. It is a nice Monday morning here by me. 47 when I went out at 7 AM, with just some patchy light fog on my drive in to work. Looks like a 90% chance of rain tonight with the frontal passage, then a couple of days slightly below normal (60 to 40). Looks like another good shot of rainfall coming next weekend.

yes NWS Tampa is saying a good chance of rain from Pinellas county Northward with the nature coast getting the most as this front comes near or maybe over us..good luck up there WD

by LargoFL Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:21 am

warming up slowly here as the fog and upper clouds fade away..66 here by me now.

by LargoFL Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:24 am

well for Billsfan and southern florida..a 20% chance of showers and a high about 77...good luck down there.

by LargoFL Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:35 am

well I cannot post pics so if anyone wants to see maps and pics..someone else needs to post them ok.

by LargoFL Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:38 am

so the GFS models brings rain into Pinellas county northward overnight and Tuesday..good luck to those who need the rain and get some...for myself sure would like the soaking IN kind of rain and not a flooding hard rain when this front crosses us.

by LargoFL Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:39 am

by LargoFL Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:39 am

damn sometimes I can post maps most times not..grrr LOL

by LargoFL Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:22 pm

well it made it up to 76 by me, I'm a happy camper now lol..looks like the showers are moving in to your area now WD,more out in the gulf..and my local met says I got a 50% chance thru tomorrow morning..i sure can use any rain that comes in, everything has been so dry here.

by LargoFL Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:24 pm

baynews9 met says...........
Isolated showers are possible this evening, but the rain will increase tonight. Tonight’s rain chance is 60 percent.

There will be areas of fog. Low temperatures will be in the low 60s.

On Tuesday, a cold front moves from the gulf and across Florida. There will be scattered showers with the front Tuesday morning, then the showers will move east during the afternoon. The rain chance is 50 percent.

by LargoFL Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:27 pm

now NWS Tampa this afternoon puts tampa bay area at 70% chance of rain and 80 percent up by WD's area..good luck WD

by StAugustineFL Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:56 pm

Good afternoon. Mid to upper 70's here which felt very nice. First time in awhile I've been able to open up the house. Took awhile to get out the chill but 75 indoors now. Looking forward to the rains tonight then again late weekend. I'll raise Largo's WPC 5-day with the 7-day.

florida - CLOSED 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw! - Page 6 G0xzCVa

florida - CLOSED 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw! - Page 6 G0xzCVa

by LargoFL Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:05 am

Good early Tuesday Morning,gee the pouring down rain woke me up!..man its coming down hard here..yesss!! I needed this rain!..looks like its going to be a soggy morning..seems to be I-4 area northward all the way up to your area Aug..the front must be coming into Florida now....well have a great day folks..and drive safe ok.

by LargoFL Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:22 am

folks does anyone have family or friends in these west coast usa area's?........Tsunami Message Number 4
NWS National Tsunami Warning Center Palmer AK
216 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

PZZ530-531-CAZ043-040-041-552-087-549-550-039-034-035-529-
530-006-505-506-508-509-109-104-103-101-ORZ021-022-002-001-
WAZ001-021-510-514>517-231216-
/O.CON.PAAQ.TS.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Coastal areas between and including The Cal./Mexico Border
to The Wash./BC Border
216 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2018

...THE TSUNAMI WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
   AREAS OF CALIFORNIA, OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM THE
   CAL./MEXICO BORDER TO THE WASH./BC BORDER ...

If you are located in this coastal area, stay alert
for further updates.

Tsunami watches are an advance notice to areas that could be
impacted by a tsunami at a later time. Watch areas may be
upgraded to a warning or advisory status, or canceled,
based on new information.

At 1232 AM Alaska Standard Time on January 23 an earthquake with
preliminary magnitude 7.9 occurred 175 miles southeast of
Kodiak City Alaska.

Estimated tsunami start times for selected sites are;

Neah Bay           Washington          450 AM. PST. January 23.
Moclips            Washington          500 AM. PST. January 23.
Long Beach         Washington          500 AM. PST. January 23.
Port Orford        Oregon              505 AM. PST. January 23.
Seaside            Oregon              505 AM. PST. January 23.
Westport           Washington          510 AM. PST. January 23.
Charleston         Oregon              510 AM. PST. January 23.
Newport            Oregon              515 AM. PST. January 23.
Brookings          Oregon              515 AM. PST. January 23.
Crescent City      California          520 AM. PST. January 23.
Horse Mountain     California          525 AM. PST. January 23.
Fort Bragg         California          525 AM. PST. January 23.
Port Angeles       Washington          530 AM. PST. January 23.
Monterey           California          555 AM. PST. January 23.
Port Townsend      Washington          555 AM. PST. January 23.
San Francisco      California          615 AM. PST. January 23.
Port San Luis      California          620 AM. PST. January 23.
Santa Barbara      California          635 AM. PST. January 23.
Los Angeles Harbor California          650 AM. PST. January 23.
Oceanside          California          700 AM. PST. January 23.
Newport Beach      California          700 AM. PST. January 23.
La Jolla           California          705 AM. PST. January 23.

The tsunami watch will remain in effect until further notice.
Refer to the internet site tsunami.gov for more information.

$$

by LargoFL Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:25 am

san Francisco CA and the California coastline is under a tsunami watch and I just read the san fran discussion, it seems the first bad waves will be coming in later this morning around 6.30 their time and luckily the tide will be going out,so that will limit they think it will be ok but.......

by waterdipper Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:04 am

It rained hard off an on last night and I ended up with 1.25". This has been a nice wet "La Nina" this year. The exact opposite of what the pre-season forecast was. THe funny thing is the last El Nino we had, the Godzilla El Nino, was very dry at my location. It seems the more we learn about the weather, the less we know.

by LargoFL Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:06 am

waterdipper wrote:It rained hard off an on last night and I ended up with 1.25". This has been a nice wet "La Nina" this year. The exact opposite of what the pre-season forecast was. THe funny thing is the last El Nino we had, the Godzilla El Nino, was very dry at my location. It seems the more we learn about the weather, the less we know.

Good morning WD, you probably got more than I did but it was pouring so hard here by me it woke me up..the hard rain didn't last all that long but it was most welcomed for sure.

by LargoFL Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:16 am

yeah suns breaking thru the clouds here and it seems its about over rain wise,might be a shower again we'll see what happens as the actual front comes into florida...nice outside and a touch cooler here now.

by JRnOldsmar Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:16 am

.7 in the bucket this morning. Mostly before midnight. Nice sleeping weather.
Good stretch heading this way.

florida - CLOSED 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw! - Page 6 Lg_7day

florida - CLOSED 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw! - Page 6 Lg_7day

by LargoFL Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:19 am

folks the Tsunami watch/warnings have been cancelled thank goodness

by LargoFL Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:21 pm

well suns out here, its breezy and made it up to 71 degree's here by me,the cold front is supposed to push across floirda sometime this afternoon/evening,most of the lil showers are south of the I-4 corridor..good luck getting some rain down there.

by LargoFL Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:23 pm

(clipped) NWS Miami.........
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across
South Florida this afternoon into the evening. The primary impacts
from the thunderstorms will be lightning strikes.

by LargoFL Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:25 pm

area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
231 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Wednesday)...
A closed mid/upper-level low continues to move east-northeastward
through the Great Lakes region this afternoon, with a steady southern
stream flow across the state bringing us some mid and high clouds. At
the surface, the cold front appears to be just entering our forecast
area, noted by a noticeable wind shift and drop in dew points at
locations across the panhandle. Radar imagery is showing a few
showers stretching from Charlotte/Lee Counties northeastward through
Polk/Highlands. This chance for showers will continue through the
afternoon, gradually coming to an end this evening. Looking at the
latest satellite imagery, web cams, and observations from around the
area shows some patchy sea fog over the Gulf waters from around
Manatee southward and some denser sea fog over Tampa Bay. Expect a
few more hours of this patchy fog (both over land and water) and then
this threat also diminishes north to south late this afternoon or
this evening.

The cold front will move through the forecast area by around midnight
or so, with winds shifting to the north as high pressure filters in
from the northwest. A relatively cooler and drier air mass will move
into the region, but this air mass is relatively shallow. A southwest
to west flow just above the surface will likely result in at least
some continued cloud cover, especially south of Tampa Bay. The
southern stream flow over the region will also keep some mid and high
cloudiness around, so would not expect to see a perfectly sunny day
for anyone. Temperatures in the afternoon will warm up into the
lower 60s to lower 70s.

by StAugustineFL Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:47 pm

waterdipper wrote:It rained hard off an on last night and I ended up with 1.25". This has been a nice wet "La Nina" this year. The exact opposite of what the pre-season forecast was. THe funny thing is the last El Nino we had, the Godzilla El Nino, was very dry at my location. It seems the more we learn about the weather, the less we know.

Good afternoon. I couldn't agree more WD.

I was a little disappointed here with only .26" but all-in-all it's been a good month. Sunday should push my area reasonably above average for January with only .13" needed to meet it.

by BillsfaninSoFla Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:21 pm

Good evening. I got to 81 or so today. No rain so far.

by LargoFL Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:13 am

Good early Wednesday Morning folks..a nice 56 degree's here this morning here in my area,forecast seems to say we have a nice day ahead and a bit cooler than yesterday....well have a great day folks!

by LargoFL Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:15 am

well suns out here now, temps down to 50 degree's but it should start warming up here..mid 60's for high they are saying and no rain so a nice cool day ahead for us..enjoy

by BillsfaninSoFla Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:29 am

Good morning. I did end up with some rain last evening! Yay, lawn needs it. A tad cooler today, but in 70’s already. Have a good day all

by LargoFL Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:43 am

AUG...check out the 12Z GFS for rain MONDAY..might be some flooding concerns up there by you if it stall out any

by LargoFL Wed Jan 24, 2018 1:32 pm

well just after 1'30pm and its 62 here and sunny..quite a nice day it turned out to be, hope its as nice where you live.

by StAugustineFL Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:08 pm

LargoFL wrote:AUG...check out the 12Z GFS for rain MONDAY..might be some flooding concerns up there by you if it stall out any

It's been pretty consistent with painting a stripe of 2-4" across northern Florida. If you were looking at the image below that is actually 7PM on Sunday. The models are in zulu time which is +5 hours from EST in non-daylight savings, +4 hours EDT if daylight savings.

florida - CLOSED 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw! - Page 6 GMD3YbR

florida - CLOSED 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw! - Page 6 GMD3YbR

by LargoFL Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:34 pm

yes I notice those RED portions over your area just about AUG..if its just rain it could be some high amounts there..hopefully no high winds with it huh.

by LargoFL Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:35 pm

well suns getting weaker now and the temps are cooling again here..for my area another dry night rain wise.

by LargoFL Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:38 pm

yeah CMC also has 2-4 inches...we'll see how this plays out Aug

by LargoFL Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:40 pm

AUG NWS Jacksonville's thinking on the rains...................LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Broad upper trough will move eastward over eastern half of the
country during the weekend. Divergent right-rear quadrant of upper
jet will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico, inducing weak
low pressure that will track toward our area. Models continue to
diverge in the details, with ECM still slower and further north
with track of surface low over GA...while GFS tracks low over
north-central FL, a little north of its track from yesterday`s
run. Regardless, strong lift in right-rear-quadrant of jet should
generate large area of rain that spreads from NE Gulf of Mexico
across forecast area Sunday, with heaviest rain likely Sunday
afternoon and evening, with rain ending from W to E toward Monday
morning. Think 2-4 inch amounts forecast by GFS across ne FL a bit
overdone...expectation is widespread 1-2 inches, with locally
heavier amounts possible, similar to ECM amounts.

Mild day expected Saturday with high temps upr 60s to lwr 70s, except
mid 60s coast. Low temps Saturday night generally mid-upr 50s. Clouds
and precipitation should keep temps down some on Sunday, but still
expecting mild conditions with high temps upr 60s to lwr 70s, with
mid 60s coast. Cold front expected to move across the area late Sunday
night, with low temps by Monday morning 45-50 across se GA, around
50 I-10 corridor, 50-55 further south.

High pressure approaches from the NW Monday, and builds over the area
Tuesday...bringing cooler drier weather...with slightly below normal
temperatures expected.

&&

by LargoFL Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:41 pm

I could use 2-4 inches of rain here..looks like That wont happen.

by StAugustineFL Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:52 pm

Much will depend on the wiggles/waggles of the low. In this case seems the best rains will be to its' north. Still 4 days out so hard to say for sure. If the low were to move ashore 100 miles south Tampa could look good. We shall see.

Per your JAX post I would be pleased with widespread 1-2" with locally higher totals.

by StAugustineFL Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:18 pm

Got this in the mail a few days ago from the Jacksonville National Weather Service.

https://i.imgur.com/kUx4KSx.png

by LargoFL Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:48 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Got this in the mail a few days ago from the Jacksonville National Weather Service.

https://i.imgur.com/kUx4KSx.png

LMAO

by LargoFL Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:51 am

Good Thursday Morning folks...a very chilly 50 degree's here in my area,dont know why..it feels colder than 50,maybe its the breezes...well local weather folks are mentioning rain etc for sunday here,would be nice if we got some good rain here........well anyway..have a great day everyone!!

by StAugustineFL Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:09 pm

Good afternoon. Looks like the heavy rains keep trending north into extreme north FL and southern GA. Boo.

That was a certificate I received from the National Weather Service office Largo. I drew through my name for anonymity purposes. I've been reporting to CoCoRaHS for years. I am also a storm spotter FWIW (nothing like a storm chaser). Only phoned in one severe weather report from a wet microburst here on Friday, May 13th, 2016. Easy to remember since it was Friday the 13th.

by BillsfaninSoFla Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:53 pm

Hi everyone. Very chilly with the wind this evening.
That's great Aug!

by LargoFL Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:09 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi everyone. Very chilly with the wind this evening.
That's great Aug!

Hi Billsfan, yes the same here by my area this early friday morning also.

by LargoFL Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:10 am

NWS Tampa.......Fri Jan 26 2018

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL has
issued a Lake Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this
morning to 6 PM EST this evening.

* TIMING...10 AM to 6 PM today.

* WINDS...Northeast to east winds around 20 mph with wind gusts of
25 to 30 mph.

* IMPACTS...The strong and gusty winds will create choppy
conditions across inland lakes. Boaters should exercise caution
and always wear a life jacket on the water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lake Wind Advisory indicates that winds will cause rough chop
on area lakes. Small boats will be especially prone to capsizing.

&&

$$

by LargoFL Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:00 am

say Aug, I thought the NWS sent you spam lol..sorry.

by LargoFL Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:11 am

well just after 9am and its still Cold here by me..supposedly its going up to 70 here..the way it feels outside it may just be for an hour or two later this afternoon...with the stronger winds coming later be a lil carful if walking around outside under any tree's etc..might be some falling twigs or branches killed off by the freeze we had....already a good sized one fell down the street from me this morning.

by LargoFL Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:14 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
840 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today)...
Strong high pressure parked on the Delmarva Peninsula early this
morning ridges down over FL...with a 8-9 mb gradient from the
state line to the Keys. This will result in some breezy conditions
across the area today...as reflected in the 12Z TBw sounding which
had 35-37 knots in the 1-2 thousand foot range. A Lake Wind
Advisory will be in effect from 10 AM to 6 PM. The flow is
shifting to easterly and will drag in enough moisture for a few
afternoon cumulus clouds under some thin high clouds. Temperatures
currently are in the 50s to near 60 but will warm...reaching the
70s for the highs although the far north will be on the cooler
side.

&&

by LargoFL Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:15 am

gee the traffic around my area is soooo heavy now..thousands of out of staters here and of course all the Canadian's..and yeah a lot also here for the Gasparilla events and Parties too this weekend.

by StPeteFLwx Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:21 am

LargoFL wrote:gee the traffic around my area is soooo heavy now..thousands of out of staters here and of course all the Canadian's..and yeah a lot also here for the Gasparilla events and Parties too this weekend.

Looks like a great weekend weather-wise for the invasion

by StPeteFLwx Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:30 am

Well, Sunday afternoon not so much
florida - CLOSED 1-6 Florida/Alabama Blog - January Thaw! - Page 6 Allfcsts_loop_ndfd

by LargoFL Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:35 pm

yeah Saturday will be great huh st pete..maybe stormy weather here Sunday afternoon /evening,so many here this year whew..bet the stores/shops etc are really happy

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