Latest topics
Florida Blog
Southeast Radar Loop
Kamala Severe Warnings
Photobucket
Warnings
WPC 5 Day Precip
Search
 
 

Display results as :
 


Rechercher Advanced Search

Keywords


CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Page 4 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StPeteFLwx on Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:11 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks.for the reminder of that storm . Such an awesome, albeit destructive storm . We lost power for a day or so.

Didn't lose power, but I remember seeing salt from saltwater on my west-facing windows. Which means the wind was blowing Gulf of Mexico water all the way across the peninsula to St Pete. Also drove through Ocala National Forest after one of the tornados went through. Seeing what a tornado can do in a pine forest in amazing, trees were snapped and thrown around like toothpicks.

StPeteFLwx

Posts : 262
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2017-03-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by JRnOldsmar on Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:18 pm

Back to the grind today, after a great week in SW FL. Buddies, fun, food, drink, beach, cruising, ...... with great weather to boot. We're always finding new local eating and drinking spots that do not disappoint. No strikes yet!!

Looks like the bucket caught .25 last week, and .35 this week. Good enough for the cool weather we're enjoying. Great weekend on the way.

Note: If you've never driven down through the south central part of the state in early spring (e.g. Hwy 27, south of I-4), you should do so, unless you have citrus blossom allergies. It's an amazing ride, with the windows down, and citrus scent very thick in the air.
avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 707
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by JRnOldsmar on Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:22 pm

Thanks for the dog-walk, StPete. Ditto on results yesterday.
avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 707
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:03 pm

Thanks JR. Nothing?

Most people I know avoid 27, but it's 4 lane now? Years ago, I guess like the Alley it was two lane. I couldn't go across the alley as I've gotten older if it were 2 lane.

BillsfaninSoFla

Posts : 1855
Reputation : 52
Join date : 2017-03-05

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by waterdipper on Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:10 am

A cold 29 here this beautiful morning. Hardly any frost. It is so dry right now, just no moisture for frost formation. Looks like a nice day on tap, another cold night tonight, then a warm up for the weekend.

waterdipper

Posts : 268
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2017-03-15
Location : Somewhere between Cedar Key, Chiefland and Gainesville

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StPeteFLwx on Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:16 am

Can really see how the Gulf moderates temps today. Lakeland is 12 degrees colder than St Pete right now, but is forecast to be 5 degrees warmer than here this afternoon.

StPeteFLwx

Posts : 262
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2017-03-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by JRnOldsmar on Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:44 am

Nada, BillsFan.

I had no traffic issues or challenges between Haines City and Palmdale -- in either direction (south last Thurs afternoon; north on Tues a.m.). I can't speak to what it's like going around lake O. It did add about 30 mins to my ~3.5 hour trip (according to Google Maps), but that's a small price to pay to get off the interstate. I love driving the backroads and seeing the sights. It definitely keeps the BP down. Smile
avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 707
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:08 pm

I can't blame you for wanting to stay off highway. Have any of you eve driven around Lake O? I imagine it would be kind of cool.

BillsfaninSoFla

Posts : 1855
Reputation : 52
Join date : 2017-03-05

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by JRnOldsmar on Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:32 pm

I think it would be cool to spend some time around Lake O. The closest I've gotten was right after the Christmas Freeze (89?) heading back from Key West. Took A1a to W.Palm, then 710 to Town O, then 98. The only times I'm down your way, is when going to KW, and I really don't want to add to an already 8-hour drive. I do usually take Tamiami instead of the Alley though. but that's just to bypass as much of Miami as possible.
avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 707
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:11 pm

Popping in for a quickie. I've now a hankering to visit a state park to do XYZ after reading the outdoorsie talk and/or weather references. Anastasia SP is a local fav of mine with the beach, kayaking, hiking trails, etc.... but I'm jonesing for something new.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StPeteFLwx on Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:16 pm

Fort DeSoto is a great state park. Can get crowded though

StPeteFLwx

Posts : 262
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2017-03-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by JRnOldsmar on Thu Mar 15, 2018 6:17 pm

Honeymoon and Caladesi Islands are good for beach and watersports.  I agree with StPete as well.  Anastasia used to be my goto beach (76-81).  This was before it was closed off, dunes/beach restored, modern amenities, and added the fees.  You could still drive on the beach -- major high school hangout.  

What are you looking to do, Aug?  Camping?  Water?  Beach?  5-star Resort?
avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 707
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by severstorm on Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:27 am

Morning All,
Quite the chilly morning down to 28 this am with light frost on the car tops. Yesterday got down to 29.
That's it.
Have a great weekend!! Very Happy Cool
John Z-hills

severstorm

Posts : 276
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2017-03-14
Age : 56
Location : Zephyrhills

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by JRnOldsmar on Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:43 am

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
 Quite the chilly morning down to 28 this am with light frost on the car tops. Yesterday got down to 29.
That's it.
Have a great weekend!! Very Happy Cool
John Z-hills

Yowza, John. To StPete's earlier point, I have been down to just under 50 degrees for each of the last 3 mornings. That's a 20 degree diff across 30-35 miles.
avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 707
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by waterdipper on Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:02 am

29 degrees with frost in the low spots at 7AM here. The warm up starts today. Looks like a great weekend weather wise. Hope for a little bit of rain fall next week before the next cold front. Temps don't look as cold as they have been next front, but that could change depending on the evolution of the Nor'easter that is possibly going to hit the storm weary folks in the NE US from the mid Atlantic to New England.

waterdipper

Posts : 268
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2017-03-15
Location : Somewhere between Cedar Key, Chiefland and Gainesville

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by severstorm on Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:12 am

JRnOldsmar wrote:
severstorm wrote:Morning All,
 Quite the chilly morning down to 28 this am with light frost on the car tops. Yesterday got down to 29.
That's it.
Have a great weekend!! Very Happy Cool
John Z-hills

Yowza, John.  To StPete's earlier point, I have been down to just under 50 degrees for each of the last 3 mornings.  That's a 20 degree diff across 30-35 miles.

I live in what they call a dry lake bed or valley. colder air gets trapped in.
In the summer its hotter around this area.
John Z-hills

severstorm

Posts : 276
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2017-03-14
Age : 56
Location : Zephyrhills

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:45 pm

JRnOldsmar wrote:Honeymoon and Caladesi Islands are good for beach and watersports.  I agree with StPete as well.  Anastasia used to be my goto beach (76-81).  This was before it was closed off, dunes/beach restored, modern amenities, and added the fees.  You could still drive on the beach -- major high school hangout.  

What are you looking to do, Aug?  Camping?  Water?  Beach?  5-star Resort?

Nothing fancy JR - just a place relatively nearby to escape to for a day and be one with nature. Hiking/exploring with possible kayaking would be the preference. Camping and the 5-star resort are ruled out. It's been several years ago but I went to Faver-Dykes 45 minutes or so down the road. They had a decent hiking trail but evidently don't treat for ticks. I was married at the time - ex-wife, daughter, myself had to pick a few off one another. Then there was a couple on the hiking trail 100 yards or so ahead of us making out. The ticks/lovers sorta ruined the experience.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by JRnOldsmar on Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:29 pm

Check these out, Aug.  These I've been to, and may fit the bill.

Amelia Island
Big & Little Talbot Islands
Fort Clinch
Fort George
Goldhead Branch
avatar
JRnOldsmar

Posts : 707
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2017-03-05
Location : Oldsmar, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:01 am

Will do JR.

Hmmm, guess I've been asleep at the wheel. Could be a significant threat for severe weather with the next front. As of now appears to be north FL northward. Jax is talking all modes of severe possible (tornado's, winds, hail). SPC language is discussing possible upgrade from the current Day3 slight risk.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:03 am



This is valid Monday morning to Tuesday morning.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
AL...GA...SOUTHERN TN...AS WELL AS NORTHERN FL AND NORTHEAST MS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of tornadoes, damaging wind and hail are
possible across parts of Middle Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia.
Severe wind is also possible into northern Florida.

...Discussion...
The timing of a shortwave trough will play a critical role in severe
potential on Monday across TN, MS, AL and GA. At this time, the NAM
appears to be too slow and more amplified with this wave over MO
compared to the ECMWF and GFS which show it over central KY or
Middle TN at 00Z Tuesday. As a result, severe potential looks quite
different amongst the models. For example, the latest NAM shows an
extremely volatile setup over middle TN and northern AL clearly
favoring strong tornadoes. However, the most likely solution appears
to be a blend of the ECMWF and GFS, both showing a faster and
lower-amplitude shortwave, as well as less low-level shear with
relatively veered 850 mb flow.

The most probable scenario appears to be for isolated, potentially
significant severe storms from Middle TN into northern AL and GA,
dependent on how much destabilization occurs especially in TN.
Models also indicate substantial storm coverage across much of
southern GA into northern FL, possibly in the form of an MCS, with
mainly wind damage potential given unidirectional flow.

Given the potential for significant severe storms, a categorical
upgrade is possible in later outlooks once predictability increases
and the centroid of severe coverage is better established.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:05 am

Jax's current thinking on the potential..........

While there is currently a Slight risk contour across most of the
area for Day 3 (mainly late Monday), the more concerning period
across our region with this system at this point is Tuesday when
the cold front moves through. A lot will depend on the timing of
the squall line Monday night/early Tuesday morning but model
forecasts have been fairly consistent that the threat for severe
weather will continue into Tuesday. Deep layer moisture and shear
remain in place, with nearly 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 40-50+ knots
of 0-6km bulk shear supporting supercell development, perhaps
even out ahead of the front. Forecast soundings also showing steep
lapse rates and even a fair amount of shear in the 0-1km and
0-3km layers, suggesting the possibility that all modes of severe
weather including tornadoes are possible.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:11 am

For college basketball fans a major WOW moment last night. Greatest upset in college history. #1 overall seed Virginia got pummelled 74-54 by #16 seed University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC). First time in history a #16 seed has beaten a #1 - much less the top #1 seed. Going into the game #16 seeds were at 0 wins, 135 losses.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:37 pm

It was great Aug! Plus two 13s move on Buffalo/Marshall . I happened to have both in the bracket, yay. Charleston, another 13 seed got hosed by refs on a bad call toward end of game, that may have affected the outcome. Been a fun tourney.

BillsfaninSoFla

Posts : 1855
Reputation : 52
Join date : 2017-03-05

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:28 pm

It was great bills! Not so much for my bracket since I had Virginia winning it all, lol, but I love the upsets. Now watch UMBC lose by 30 next game. I'm sure they're on a serious high and no one slept last night. They'll come out flat next game.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:12 pm

Good luck with the weather Aug.

Hopefully they come out like gangbusters, but the odds are against them. I have NC winning it all..

BillsfaninSoFla

Posts : 1855
Reputation : 52
Join date : 2017-03-05

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:20 am

Update on the severe threat.

Monday:



Tuesday:

avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:28 am

Ruskin doesn't seem to have any concern. Kind of odd considering SPC has their northern area in an enhanced risk.

Snip: A much stronger shortwave
will dig into the southeastern states and northern Gulf on
Tuesday, supporting a stronger cold front push into the
Florida Peninsula. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front and
spread south through west central and southwest Florida
Tuesday and Tuesday night. With strong wind shear and cool
mid level temperatures ahead of the front, there is
potential for a few strong thunderstorms on Tuesday. The one
limiting factor for thunderstorms will be the cool shelf
waters, which should somewhat weaken the convection as it
approaches west central and southwest Florida.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:32 am

avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:34 am

Rainfall potential. We shall see.


avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by sangria on Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:08 am

From Ruskin's FB page about 30 min ago...

A storm system moving across the southeastern states will pull a cold front into the Nature Coast Monday night and then through the remainder of west central and southwest Florida on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front and push into the Nature Coast Monday night, and then into west central and southwest Florida on Tuesday. Increasing winds and wind shear along with cold temperatures aloft may support some severe storms across the region. At the present time the primary hazards from the storms will be damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, hail, and isolated tornadoes with the greatest threat occurring during Tuesday morning and into early Tuesday afternoon. In the wake of the cold front strong northwest to north winds will help to quickly build seas over the adjacent Gulf waters with a period of very hazardous marine and beach conditions developing Tuesday night through early Thursday, with wind gusts to near gale force possible along with high surf and a high risk of rip currents developing along area beaches. Cold air advection in the wake of the front will also bring much cooler and drier air into the region with below normal temperatures expected Wednesday through Friday with overnight lows falling in the 40s and 50s, with daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 2325
Reputation : 55
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by sangria on Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:16 am

The data is wrong on this webcam shot, but the cam is working.... a bit froggy here this morning

avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 2325
Reputation : 55
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by sangria on Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:15 pm

Click link for video briefing from Ruskin NWS on their Facebook page



Severe weather possible Monday and Tuesday (Mar 19th-20th)

Severe weather will be heading our way for Monday and Tuesday. Here is a quick update on that potential.

Posted by US National Weather Service Tampa Bay Florida on Sunday, March 18, 2018
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 2325
Reputation : 55
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:15 pm

Unless it comes later, looks like no rain for me.

BillsfaninSoFla

Posts : 1855
Reputation : 52
Join date : 2017-03-05

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:40 pm

Not looking good down your way bills in terms of rain prospects with this front.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:08 pm

Stinks as we could use it. Saw where many counties in Alabama are closing schools early tomorrow, most before noon . Honestly why even bother to open? Just not worth the aggravation for parents IMO .

BillsfaninSoFla

Posts : 1855
Reputation : 52
Join date : 2017-03-05

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by severstorm on Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:35 am

Morning All,
Bracket got blown up!! Two of my final four are out.
That's ok I love the upsets.
Yes looks like there might be a storm threat.
The shelf waters are cooler so that might keep the strong storms low.
Had a great weekend. Both day were in the 80's
Have a great day!!!!
John Z-hills

severstorm

Posts : 276
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2017-03-14
Age : 56
Location : Zephyrhills

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:08 am

Morning. Yeah John, same here with my bracket.

Had .32 in the gauge at 7 AM. The bulk is soon to move in. I'm curious to hear from WD. That line of storms moving through Gainesville now has/had a severe thunderstorm warning. Here's a static loop.

avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StPeteFLwx on Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:08 am

Fighting a lot of dry air:

StPeteFLwx

Posts : 262
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2017-03-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StPeteFLwx on Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:53 am

Possible tornado around Gainesville
Gainesville Sun

StPeteFLwx

Posts : 262
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2017-03-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by sangria on Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:20 pm

So far the only reports on the SPC Storm Report are these two - these will be on yesterday's report as they occurred prior to 12Z today.

1030 UNK 3 SW NEWBERRY Alachua FL 2961 8265 SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN EASTERN GILCHRIST COUNTY. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (JAX)
1040 UNK N ARCHER Alachua FL 2953 8252 MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN ARCHER AND HWY 41 BETWEEN ARCHER AND NEWBERRY. (JAX)
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 2325
Reputation : 55
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by sangria on Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:23 pm

SPC did up the ante to Moderate for northern AL

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 2325
Reputation : 55
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by sangria on Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:25 pm

Yeah StPete, that dry air has prevented me from getting much more than some light rain here. It should moisten up later today though.
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 2325
Reputation : 55
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:54 pm

.67 additional from the AM storms. HRRR wants to paint 1-2" in the area through the evening. Radar is lighting up like a Christmas tree. We shall see.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:00 pm

Not much cranking yet in the moderate risk area but storms seem to want to get going SW of Huntsville.

avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by sangria on Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:22 pm

.12" from the light rain today  fiddle
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 2325
Reputation : 55
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by sangria on Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:00 pm

Here is a new chaser link... I've never seen this one before

http://www.iweathernet.com/thunderstorms/watch-storm-chasers-live-real-time-storm-cams

avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 2325
Reputation : 55
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:15 am

Thanks san. May need that today for us. To quote Largo "hope no tornado's" Updated SPC day 1 outlook should be out in the next half hour. Will post if I don't get sidetracked by work.
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by waterdipper on Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:19 am

Wow, what a rainfall yesterday. I ended up catching 3.5" at the house. Some areas close by got up to 6"! That squall line had some wind and lightning in it as well, but was much worse further north and inland than me. I have been at the Suwannee River Youth Livestock Fair in Fanning Springs with my oldest son the past few days. He has a hog in the fair. He did a good job showing his hog yesterday although he didn't get the blue ribbon he wanted but he did at least get a red ribbon. Tomorrow is the livestock sale and he hopes to at break even on it, but I think he will do better than that as this event is really a fund raiser for these kids and the community really comes out in there support.

waterdipper

Posts : 268
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2017-03-15
Location : Somewhere between Cedar Key, Chiefland and Gainesville

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by severstorm on Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:37 am

waterdipper wrote:Wow, what a rainfall yesterday. I ended up catching 3.5" at the house. Some areas close by got up to 6"! That squall line had some wind and lightning in it as well, but was much worse further north and inland than me. I have been at the Suwannee River Youth Livestock Fair in Fanning Springs with my oldest son the past few days. He has a hog in the fair. He did a good job showing his hog yesterday although he didn't get the blue ribbon he wanted but he did at least get a red ribbon. Tomorrow is the livestock sale and he hopes to at break even on it, but I think he will do better than that as this event is really a fund raiser for these kids and the community really comes out in there support.

Well waterdipper good luck to your son. Wow that's a lot of rain. Good for you!
Hope we all see a good dose of rain today without the damage. Not sure what we will see so keep an eye to the sky and the weather radio. Maybe we can get some of the rain down to Biilsfan later tonight.
Good luck all!!
John Z-hills

severstorm

Posts : 276
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2017-03-14
Age : 56
Location : Zephyrhills

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by StAugustineFL on Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:07 am

Good luck with the sale tomorrow WD.

Updated SPC discussion:

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN FLORIDA AND COASTAL AREAS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CLOSELY
SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CLOSELY
SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are
possible today from the Florida Peninsula northward to portions of
the coastal Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a substantial synoptic-scale trough in the
eastern U.S., with an anchoring cyclone, should evolve through the
period as the result of the interaction of several shortwave
perturbations. A small/closed 500-mb cyclone currently near CVG
will weaken and eject eastward into a larger-scale progressive
ridge. However, the next substantial shortwave trough -- now
positively tilted from the Mid-South across northwestern LA to
central TX -- will phase with a smaller perturbation digging
southeastward across the lower Missouri Valley. As this occurs, the
southern trough will amplify somewhat and become less positively
tilted. By 00Z, the net 500-mb trough should reach eastern TN, GA,
the central FL Panhandle, and the northeastern Gulf. The northern
part will merge with the upstream perturbation to form a mid/upper
cyclone by 12Z over the south-central Appalachians, while the
southern part ejects rapidly northeastward over the Atlantic.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an elongated area of low
pressure from WV to extreme eastern TN and extreme western NC, with
occluded then cold front southwestward across west-central GA,
southeastern AL, and the west-central FL Panhandle. The synoptic
warm front was diffusely evident over northern SC and southeastern
NC; however, strong outflow to its south from an overnight MCS has
shunted the effective baroclinic zone southward. That boundary --
analyzed over central/southeastern GA and offshore SC, should
retreat northeastward through portions of eastern SC and perhaps
extreme southern NC before passage of the cold front, and/or the
main convective band discussed below. A weak low appeared to be
forming on the diffuse synoptic boundary over southeastern NC, but
should become better-defined through the day as baroclinicity in its
proximity increases, and it ejects offshore from the Hampton Roads
area. A secondary low should form along the cold front today over
northern/eastern SC and move offshore from ILM after 00Z. By 00Z,
the cold front should extend southwestward near the SC/GA coasts
then across northwestern FL. The cold front is expected to exit FL
entirely by 12Z as the Atlantic cyclone strengthens well east of the
VA coast.

...FL...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop primarily in prefrontal
low-level convergence zones, offering damaging gusts, large hail and
a few tornadoes. The activity should take the form of multiple
episodes of southwest/northeast-oriented convective bands, from
later this morning through at least early evening, in broken to
solid form. Embedded supercells, bows and LEWPs are possible. The
earliest episodes may evolve through the remainder of this morning
from activity now evident in satellite and long-range radar imagery
over the northeastern Gulf, with additional development expected
over both the Gulf and peninsular Florida through the remainder of
the daylight hours.

Severe potential will be supported by an uncommon juxtaposition of
lapse rates, moisture and shear for this area in late March.
Eastward transport of a plume of climatologically steep
mid/upper-level lapse rates is expected ahead of the shortwave
trough. Its trajectories emanated from a southern Plains/Mexican
EML that has been altered only minimally (at most) by convection.
This plume will overlie boundary-layer southwesterlies advecting
favorably moist air from the Loop Current area of the Gulf.
Low-level theta-e advection shortly will finish eradicating the
residue of yesterday's outflow air (at and above the surface) from
the Atlantic coastal areas of the central/northern peninsula, making
upper-60s to low-70s F dew points and mean mixing ratios 13-15 g/kg
common. Thus setup thermodynamically, the final destabilization
process will be diabatic surface heating, which should remove the
small remaining MLCINH and boost buoyancy considerably over the next
few hours, with MLCAPE reaching 1500-2000 J/kg.

Meanwhile, deep shear should strengthen, with effective-shear
magnitudes 40-50 kt already evident at this time in modified RAOB
data and objective analyses, despite the veered/southwesterly
surface winds. 0-1-km SRH will be hindered somewhat by the nearly
unidirectional flow and long, modestly curved nature of the
hodographs; however, effective SRH 150-250 J/kg should remain common
through most of the day in the prefrontal/preconvective areas. Such
shear should support a mix of convective modes involving storm-scale
rotation. Into this evening and tonight, with southward extent and
time, shear, lift and instability each will diminish, reducing
convective coverage/intensity.

...Southeastern GA, SC, extreme southern NC coastal areas...
Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon may offer a threat for
damaging gusts, severe hail and perhaps tornadoes. A mixed-mode,
broken to solid band of thunderstorms is most probable, given the
geometry of the low and middle-level mass fields. As in FL, the
potential exists for embedded supercells, bows and LEWPs.

Low-level warm advection, as well as surface heating in the wake of
the departing MCS-related cloud cover, will aid destabilization, as
the outflow boundary retreats northeastward and likely diffuses
somewhat. Meanwhile, cooling aloft is expected ahead of the
approaching mid/upper-level trough. A narrow inland corridor of
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE should result, amidst strengthening deep shear
(e.g., effective--shear magnitudes 45-55 kt). Nearly unidirectional
wind profiles are expected, but still with enough convergence to
breach the weakened MLCINH layer and sufficient low-level shear to
support storm-scale rotation as well. Activity should move offshore
this evening.

..Edwards/Peters.. 03/20/2018
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 1988
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CLOSED Last Hurrah for March?

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum