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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:48 am

Aug please stay alert and safe up there ok, this front coming is a real bad one whew..............

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:53 am


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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:56 am

NWS Tampa for Sunday-strong to severe storms..................................................................

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 5:01 am

Good Saturday Morning Folks!! well the nws discussions for this coming system are saying its a strong one,im taking in all things outside that can blow around,its about all i can do i guess now to wait it out and see how this goes..well the Blogs COFFEE is ready when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!!

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 5:55 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
Upper ridging building along the eastern seaboard in response
to large and powerful upper low and longwave from the Plains
states into Northern Mexico today to produce very warm and
humid conditions as southerly low level flow continues to
increase mean layer moisture through tonight.

Well advertised severe weather possibility continues for
Sunday.

Models continue in very good agreement that strong upper
trough will translate eastward and be positioned from the Great
Lakes into the Gulf of Mexico, and take on a negative tilt
as intense mid-level height falls spread across the Deep
South Sunday. Significant dynamical support/instability
through the entire column to include jet stream speed max,
potent embedded vort maxes, low level jet advecting deepening
moisture northward producing pre frontal squall line of
convection. Continue to expect approximate timing of this
robust line to move through the NE Gulf and N Nature Coast
12Z- 15Z, E Gulf and ashore West Central FL 15Z-21Z, then SW
FL 21Z-00Z, with widespread showers/storms with some strong
to severe storms. SPC day 2 outlook places the entire CWA
in a slight risk with damaging wind gusts the primary threat
but isolated supercells may evolve in addition a tornado
threat possible. Will continue to closely monitor this
situation and update as needed.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Sunday night - Friday)...
Aloft - A low over the upper Mississippi Valley and troughing into
the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sun night moves to the lower Great Lakes
Mon with the trough rotating out over the Atlantic. Ridging builds
in over the Gulf region Tue-Wed then flattens Thu as a low tracks
from the northern plains to the Upper Great Lakes. Ridging builds
back over the Gulf region Fri as a Pacific Northwest low drops into
the Great Basin. Surface - a cold front...associated with the upper
trough...across southern FL Sun night exits early Mon. High pressure
from the northern plains to the western Gulf Mon re-centers on the
central Gulf coast Tue then tracks along Latitude 30 North to the
open Atlantic through the end of the week...while ridging back to FL
and the Gulf until Fri when a diffuse front sweeps in from the
northwest.

The Storm Prediction Center currently has the area under a slight
risk designation Sun. A squall line is expected to move through most
of the area during the day with the greatest threat damaging winds
although there is also a potential for tornadoes. Depending on the
timing of the squall line there could be residual showers and storms
lingering into the early night hours but these are expected to exit
with the cold front before daybreak Mon. High pressure takes over
for the rest of the week with a stable...dry..and cool airmass. No
rainfall is expected...the front Fri has very limited moisture.
Temperatures start out well below normal by 6-10 degrees for Mon
into Tue...warm to above normal...then drop to near normal Fri.
Strong west and northwest winds Sun night will create hazardous
conditions on coastal waters and at area beaches until winds begin
to diminish and shift late Mon or early Tue.

&&

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 5:57 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
340 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
...Warm with Isolated Showers Today...
...Threat for Strong Storms Developing on Sunday...

Today and Tonight...A healthy fetch of SE winds will continue
around Western Atlc high pressure once again today. This pattern
will bring higher moisture over the region along with warm
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s. Isolated showers present
over the coast and marine areas will make some progress west of
I-95 and some brief sprinkles of light rain will remain possible
today with partly to mostly sunny skies. A mentionable rain chance
will be confined largely to the coastal zones today. A similar
precip configuration of isold showers can be expected overnight
with further increases in avbl moisture along with incrsg BL flow.
Winds will begin to veer Sly ascd with apchg Gulf wave. Temps
will be mild with lows in the U60s to around 70.

Sun-Sun Night... Slight Risk of Severe Storms...
Hi amp short wave trof pushing into the Great Plains continues to
have respectable chance of bringing a strong/svr WX outbreak to
central FL. Upr lvl analysis shows a 140KT jet streak nosing its way
into the Pac NW preparing to feed its energy into the trailing flank
of the short wave, while a 130KT jet streak north of the Great Lakes
is fcst to strengthen to arnd 170KTs by daybreak as it interacts
with a deep mid/upr lvl low east of Hudson Bay.

As the Great Lakes jet streak strengthens and becomes the dominant
of the two, the short wave will further intensify as it obtains a
negative tilt over the Deep South. Furthermore, the sfc low over the
midwest has combined with a strong arctic ridge over central Canada
to form a classic Rex blocking pattern that will force the low onto
a track that will take it south of the Great Lakes. From this
position, the low will provide sufficient torque to crank its
attendant cold front through central FL in the aftn/evng hrs.

GFS continues to indicate moderate thermodynamic instability with
H70 temps arnd 6C and H50 temps arnd -9C, resulting in lapse rates
arnd 6.0C/KM at best. Furthermore, H30-H20 winds top out arnd 80KTS,
resulting in marginal upr lvl divergence. However, strong warm air
advection will prevail ahead of the front as interaction btwn the
trof and a strong Atlc ridge will allow H100-H70 mean winds to
freshen out of the south to btwn 30-40KTS, while the timing of the
front would send it acrs much of the CWA btwn 18Z-24Z during max sfc
heating (M/U80s). Will continue to paint the CWA with likely to
categorical PoPs thru the day, sct/likely overnight. Minor
fluctuations wrt timing of the fropa, but highest precip chances
remain on track...btwn 18Z-03Z for the I-4 Corridor, and btwn 00Z-
09Z for the Space/Treasure Coasts and Lake-O region.

Mon-Fri...
Strong meridional flow on the backside of the frontal trof will push
the post frontal ridge into the wrn GOMex by daybreak Mon, while the
Rex blocking pattern shifts into New England/ern Canada. Slow
evolution of the WX pattern will keep the center of the H100-H70
anticyclone west of the FL Peninsula thru sunset Tue. The ridge
should transit the peninsula by daybreak Wed, where it will merge
with the Atlc ridge. Mid range guidance brings a weak cold front
thru central FL on Fri, but is not particularly aggressive with
moisture advection Wed/Thu. Will keep the fcst dry for now.

Noticeably cooler Mon/Tue behind the front with most areas seeing a
10-15F drop in max/min temps. Aftn readings in the 70s and mrng mins
in the generally in the 50s, near 60 along the immediate coast.
Return flow dvlpg by daybreak Wed will sent temps back into the 80s,
mins into the 60s thru the latter half of the week.

&&

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Re: April Showers

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:04 am

Morning all. Yeah Largo, I'll be paying attention tomorrow for sure. We'll all need to since this system looks to impact the entire state. Hopefully we can dodge the severe weather. The hailstorm on Tuesday was enough to hold me over for awhile, lol.
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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:23 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning all.  Yeah Largo, I'll be paying attention tomorrow for sure.  We'll all need to since this system looks to impact the entire state.  Hopefully we can dodge the severe weather.  The hailstorm on Tuesday was enough to hold me over for awhile, lol.
ok and yes hailstones are not good at all,gee they sure can do damage to cars left outside

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:25 am

so NWS Tampa has it at 90% chance of storms tomorrow,get things you need to do today,stay alert and safe folks.

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:27 am


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Re: April Showers

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:27 am

Just a backyard random observation - if it rains .46" or more tomorrow (which looks likely) it'll be the wettest April in my 7 years of having a rain gauge. Month is only half over and in checking models seems we may get another front next Sunday/Monday.
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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:30 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Just a backyard random observation - if it rains .46" or more tomorrow (which looks likely) it'll be the wettest April in my 7 years of having a rain gauge.  Month is only half over and in checking models seems we may get another front next Sunday/Monday.
ok Aug,sure does look like a very wet day tomorrow

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:31 am

well in looking at the hatched area in Florida,i guess i'd better go around the house and make sure everything is ok..might be bad winds too..

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Re: April Showers

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:29 am

Might as well have a rainy day tomorrow! Anybody else put off their taxes till this weekend? Just finished mine up... bring on the gloomy day!
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Re: April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:32 am

Good morning Largo, Aug and friends Thanks for the coffee Largo! Great as always!
Some strong wording in the forecast. Good luck all.

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Re: April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:33 am

Morning San!

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Re: April Showers

Post by sangria on Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:42 am

Morning Bills! Very Happy

Active storm report yesterday and I don't expect today to be much different.  The warnings haven't slowed down overnight into the morning like we would normally see.  

Kamala Severe Warnings Page
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/

Storm Reports 7am 4/13 - 7am 4/14

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Re: April Showers

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:29 am

sangria wrote:Might as well have a rainy day tomorrow!  Anybody else put off their taxes till this weekend?  Just finished mine up... bring on the gloomy day!

I finished mine two months ago. Smile
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Re: April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:49 am

Mine were done last month. Darn Uncle Sam.

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:21 am


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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:22 am

so with most of the models...the whole state of Florida gets a piece of this strong storm/front..

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:27 am

(ST PETE/CLEARWATER AIRPORT)....SundayShowers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. High near 79. Windy, with a south southeast wind 14 to 19 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday NightShowers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. Low around 59. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:31 am


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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:30 pm

well just about 1:30 pm and its really NICE outside,the dogs loved the park and had a great time,well now "I" rest lol and await word on what's coming tomorrow

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Re: April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:01 pm

So it looks like an overnight event for me now?

That's good for your dogs Largo, poor things will be under the bed tomorrow.

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Re: April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:03 pm

The wind has picked up here.

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:06 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:So it looks like an overnight event for me now?  

That's good for your dogs Largo, poor things will be under the bed tomorrow.
LOL first boom of thunder,under the beds they go LOL

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:07 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:The wind has picked up here.
yes here by me also Billsfan.

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:08 pm

NWS
SPC...................CLIPPED................Farther south across central and southern FL including part of the
FL Keys, forcing for ascent is expected to be weaker. However, the
CAPE/shear parameter space is expected to remain conducive for
strong to severe storms as the southern extent of the cold front
moves through these areas Sunday evening (between 16/00-06Z).
Damaging winds and a tornado threat should be the greatest severe
threats, as the broken band of storms and any discrete cells ahead
of the front track across the southern half of the FL Peninsula and
adjacent Keys.

..Peters.. 04/14/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

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Re: April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:10 pm

LOL Largo poor things. My cats are weird, they love to watch it rain. They wanted out in the middle of our storm on Tuesday. I had a heck of a time keeping them inside during hurricane Irma.

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Re: April Showers

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:10 pm

It does look to be overnight for you bills being "down yonder" in the far SE part of the state.

Anyone know what galumpkis are? I've been slow cooking some for a couple of hours and can't wait for them to finish!
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Re: April Showers

Post by PuppyToes on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:12 pm

Stuffed cabbage?
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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:16 pm

gro posted this over in doc's blog a few minutes ago..look whats coming folks...gee..................................................

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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:18 pm

guess i should go up and check the gutters again..might be ALOT of rain coming if it slows down any,maybe getting bumped by the East coast sea breeze later?


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Re: April Showers

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:18 pm

You've got it PuppyToes. I'm of Polish heritage and had a hankering to gather what I needed at Publix this morning. I'm starving but won't be able to eat until 3:30'ish
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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:19 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:You've got it PuppyToes.  I'm of Polish heritage and had a hankering to gather what I needed at Publix this morning.  I'm starving but won't be able to eat until 3:30'ish
corned beef and Cabbage? hmmm

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Re: April Showers

Post by PuppyToes on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:24 pm

Yes Aug, I am too. My grandparents came over on the boat. I recall Mom making them when I was younger but they’re very time consuming and yes delicious!
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Re: April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:30 pm

Oh sorry, but yuck! The smell of corned beef and cabbage makes me nauseated.
My hubby absolutely loves it.




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Re: April Showers

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:30 pm

With the really blue clear sky today, it's no warning for what's due tomorrow.  It'll be a nice morning, and I do love the rain/storms, so I ain't complainin'.  Smile

I'm not a fan of cabbage or corned beef. And certainly nein kraut.

Gotta get to the hockey game now!  Hoping for another cup!
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Re: April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:36 pm

But I do make stuffed cabbage and that smell doesn't bother me.

What do you "stuff" your cabbage with Aug & PT?

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Re: April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:38 pm

Hi/bye JR! Who's your hockey team?

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Re: April Showers

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:41 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi/bye JR!  Who's your hockey team?

Ummm....... Lightning??? lol!
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Re: April Showers

Post by PuppyToes on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:46 pm

I haven’t made stuffed cabbage. I guess that’s one for my bucket list.
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Re: April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:49 pm

Oh, duh on my part JR! Good luck. Panthers had 96 points and didn't make it. Sad

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Re: April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:54 pm

I'll send you my stuffed cabbage recipe PT. Everyone loves it

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Re: April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:58 pm

Thanks for the pic Largo! Grothar still posts on Masters’ blog? He lives down here not to far from me from what I recall

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Re: April Showers

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sat Apr 14, 2018 3:00 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Oh, duh on my part JR!   Good luck.  Panthers had 96 points and didn't make it. Sad

Smile I'm very geographic in my team selections. Florida and the SE, got roots in TX/OK/LA, and ties in MN/WI. NE and West -- nyet. Smile
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Re: April Showers

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 3:17 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:But I do make stuffed cabbage and that smell  doesn't bother me.

What do you "stuff" your cabbage with Aug & PT?

Nothing fancy here bills.  Boil a head of cabbage til it softens a bit, peel/stuff/wrap the leaves with beef/rice mixture, keep some of the broth from the cabbage boil, add tomato soup and spices of choice, slow cook 4 hours, make some mashed potato's as a supplement, then dig in.

I'll send a pic later once it's done and on the dinner plate.


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Re: April Showers

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 3:18 pm

Enjoy the game JR. Go Lightning! Playoff hockey is intense.
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Re: April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 3:38 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks for the pic Largo!  Grothar still posts on Masters’ blog?  He lives down here not to far from me from what I recall
yes Gro is a regular in Doc's blog


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Re: April Showers

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