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CLOSED April Showers

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by sangria on Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:07 am

Aug's favorite map says, "Beh" no ark needed in Florida, but Gomey may need a rowboat.

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:13 am

sangria wrote:Aug's favorite map says, "Beh" no ark needed in Florida, but Gomey may need a rowboat.

gee yesterday Mets were saying once the system gets to ALA/FL border area, might be higher risk of Tornado's..guess Gomey needs to really pay attention to warnings there huh
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:16 am

good morning San..good morning folks! and TGIF!!!! it looks to be another nice day around here, but local mets are saying it may be a bit more humid and warmer,right now we all in florida are watching this strong front coming, this will be the big story im sure by Sunday..well have a great day everyone!!
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:19 am


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
334 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Early morning IR satellite imagery is showing mostly clear
skies in place across the area as Atlantic high pressure
ridges across northern Florida. This ridge is setting up
southeast low level winds across the Florida Peninsula,
which are allowing dew points to gradually rise from what
was seen earlier in the week. Temperatures will also be
trending warmer, with highs topping out in the mid to upper
80s across the area this afternoon under mostly sunny skies.

Tonight and Saturday, a strong mid level trough will build
into the plains, pushing a cold front into the western
Gulf of Mexico. Low level flow will become a bit more
southerly across the Florida Peninsula ahead of this front,
causing temperatures and dew points to increase even
further. Some patchy fog will be possible Saturday morning,
mainly over the Nature Coast. Temperatures Saturday will be
well above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to around
90. On top of that, with dew points in the mid 60s, it will
feel noticeably more humid than it has all week. The
increased moisture will also mean a few sea breeze showers
or thunderstorms will be possible, although widespread rain
is not expected.

.MID-LONG TERM (Saturday Night - Friday)...
Models continue in very good agreement with the possibility
of a significant weather system that is expected to impact
the area through the day on Sunday. Upper low over the
Great Lakes with deepening longwave trough swinging through
the Deep South and Gulf of Mexico with strong upper
support/instability of jet stream speed max, potent embedded
vort maxes, low level jet advecting deepening moisture
northward producing pre frontal squall line of convection.
Expect this robust line to move through the E Gulf and
ashore West Central and SW FL with widespread showers/storms
with some strong to severe storms. SPC day 3 outlook places
the entire CWA in a slight risk were isolated supercells
that may evolve in addition to a linear MCS producing
damaging winds and a tornado threat possible.

Cold frontal passage to quickly follow squall line ending
rain chances late Sunday afternoon through the evening as
upper trough becomes more negatively tilted east of the
state.

By Monday, upper trough well NE of the region with dry NW
flow aloft to push late season Canadian high pressure into
the region for well below normal temps and low RH on breezy
northerly winds.

Mid to late week high pressure moves into the W Atlantic
with a warming trend and moisture returning.

&&
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by severstorm on Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:30 am

LargoFL wrote:good morning San..good morning folks! and TGIF!!!! it looks to be another nice day around here, but local mets are saying it may be a bit more humid and warmer,right now we all in florida are watching this strong front coming, this will be the big story im sure by Sunday..well have a great day everyone!!

Morning Largo and all,
I agree sunday could be a really wild day weather wise. The water off the coast of tampa is in the mid 70's so this round of storms have everything to keep them strong.
We will see how this pans out.
Stay safe if ugly storms happen!!! Keep those weather radios on and fresh batteries.
John Z-hills

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:33 am

severstorm wrote:
LargoFL wrote:good morning San..good morning folks! and TGIF!!!! it looks to be another nice day around here, but local mets are saying it may be a bit more humid and warmer,right now we all in florida are watching this strong front coming, this will be the big story im sure by Sunday..well have a great day everyone!!

Morning Largo and all,
 I agree sunday  could be a really wild day weather wise. The water off the coast of tampa is in the mid 70's so this round of storms have everything to keep them strong.
We will see how this pans out.
Stay safe if ugly storms happen!!! Keep those weather radios on and fresh batteries.
John Z-hills
thanks john, i for one sure will..oh i forgot the Blogs Coffee this morning...sorry LOL
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:35 am

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
429 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-132100-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
429 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Ocean and surf conditions will produce a Moderate Risk of rip
currents along the beaches of east central Florida today. Always
swim within sight of a lifeguard and do not swim alone.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A strong late season disturbance will move across the Gulf of
Mexico toward the region on Sunday. A squall line containing strong
to possibly severe storms is expected to affect portions of the
Florida peninsula Sunday afternoon into evening. Locally damaging
winds are the primary threat, however isolated tornadoes will be
possible as well during the passage of these storms. Persons
should monitor forecasts into the upcoming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:36 am

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
356 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
132000-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
356 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...
...MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents on Atlantic
beaches today.

Wind: Winds around 20 knots are possible on Atlantic waters tonight.
A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary.

Waves: Seas of 6 to 7 feet are possible early today over Gulf Stream
waters off Palm Beach County. Boaters should use caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A moderate to high risk of rip currents is expected to continue on
Atlantic beaches through Monday. An enhanced risk of rip currents is
also likely on Gulf beaches Monday and Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
night across South Florida. Thunderstorms are likely and some may be
strong to severe, with frequent cloud to ground lightning and
damaging winds the primary threats. Hail and isolated tornadoes are
also possible. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday
night along the Gulf coast and adjacent waters with a primary threat
of cloud to ground lightning.

Gusty southerly winds ahead of a cold front Sunday and Sunday night
may be hazardous to boaters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$
KONARIK
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:39 am

folks all the NWS for our area's are saying much the same thing, the storms on Sunday could be strong to severe,along with the possible heavy rains, high winds and..possible tornado's...its best to do everything outdoors today and tomorrow huh...i know for myself..im going to take in anything that could blow around outside for sure.
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:42 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
428 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...

.NEAR TERM...High pressure ridge will be northeast of the region
today resulting warmer temps. To start out this
morning...localizedfog at times which should rapidly dissipate
by 8-9 am. Mostly clear this morning for most areas though with a
few-sct strato-cu possible. Radar indicates a few sprinkles/brief
shower in the coastal waters with some enhanced cumulus but
activity is pushing nwd likely to not affect land areas and
forecast to dissipate. Partly cloudy skies expected to develop
through the aftn with Atlantic sea breeze pushing inland easily
allowing for clearing skies for the coastal areas later in the
aftn. Some enhanced cumulus expected inland areas where a few
sprinkles/brief shower possible but will leave POPs at only 10
percent at this time given the shallow moisture profile. Warmer
today with highs in the lower to mid 80s inland...mid-upper 70s
coast. Tonight...Deep layer high pressure will shift east of the
area today promoting mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with
continued warming occurring in low level southerly flow. Lows
mainly 60-65 with a few upper 50s possible. Enough turbulent
mixing in the low levels to discourage much in the way of fog
formation overnight.

.SHORT-TERM.../Friday Night through Sunday Night/...

Warming trend continues into the weekend ahead of a strong low
pressure system which arrives during the second half of the
weekend. Strengthening high pressure to the northeast is promoting
onshore, southeasterly flow across the region. Onshore flow
typically enhances the risk for fog/stratus and the area will
likely see at least some shallow patchy fog Friday and Saturday
mornings. Did introduce an isolated chance for showers across NE
Florida on Saturday during the afternoon, with the greatest
likelihood of development along the Atlantic sea-breeze.
Temperatures will generally be in the 80s during the afternoon and
60s overnight across the area during the next two days with the
persistent southeasterly flow.

Our attention then shifts to the amplified jet stream pattern on
Sunday as a strong low pressure moves through the lower Great
Lakes region. The trough aloft will influence the weather as far
south as the southern Gulf of Mexico due to the large-scale
forcing associated with the deep trough. Models have been very
consistent with the Sunday afternoon timing so no changes have
been made there. The Storm Prediction Center Day 3 outlook has
placed parts of the Southeast, including all of JAX zones, under a
Slight Risk for severe storms. Thunderstorm convection that forms
further west on Saturday will likely play a role in what the area
sees on Sunday. With strong frontal forcing and strengthening
divergence aloft, a squall line should be moving through the
Florida Panhandle overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. As is
typically the case for this area, the timing of the squall line
will once again determine how much destabilization occurs ahead
of the front. Confidence remains that some CAPE, 1000-1500 J/kg,
should be available during the afternoon. Strong shear profiles
with the linear storm mode suggests wind gusts will be the
dominating severe type as new updrafts and storms form along the
squall line. Hail and tornado threats appear low at this time. As
the event nears, high-resolution models will be key in indicating
how high the wind threat will be. Global models like the ECMWF and
GFS currently show the potential for localized low-level jets of
50-60 kts during the afternoon on Sunday, but these jets occur in
different, sporadic locations. One positive thing to note is that
there should only be one round of storms, which move through
fairly quickly across the area. By late evening, the severe threat
should be decreasing, with only a slight chance for showers
through the overnight.
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:55 am

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:56 am

well if this does indeed pan out sunday,we all may get a piece of this coming front that will cross the gulf into us huh.
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:00 am

stay alert and safe up there Gomey..and also maybe Jenny by tomorrow.....................................................Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
528 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-141030-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
528 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

High Rip Current Risk.

An organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms will
likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced potential of damaging straight line winds with these
storms, though a few brief tornadoes will also be possible. The slow
moving line of showers and thunderstorms will bring an increased
potential of heavy rainfall and an elevated risk of flooding across
locations especially along and west of a Greenville Alabama to
Pensacola Florida line Saturday and Saturday night. A limited risk
of flooding of urban and low lying areas can still be expected east
of this line across the rest of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

$$
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:06 am

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:21 am

im wondering for sunday when that strong frontal line of storms approaches our gulf coast shoreline and bangs into our humid high 80's temps..just how bad it would get?...do you suppose land falling waterspouts turned tornado's?? for sure I will be watching My area and skies that day whew..cant wait for our normal weather to return and no more severe storms from fronts huh..all it takes in one day,one bad storm to change a life huh
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:23 am

my local met is saying on a positive note that we a may get some very beneficial rainfall out of this sunday and sunday night..hope he is right .
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by StPeteFLwx on Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:42 am

Looks like all of Florida is going to get a good soaking

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:49 am

StPeteFLwx wrote:Looks like all of Florida is going to get a good soaking
hiya St Pete!! yes it sure does huh,hope its a semi fast mover so no flooding,would be great if just a good rain maker for us.
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:53 am

just look at the very high temps this strong cold front will be banging into,stay alert folks..
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:30 am

Wow Largo, could be interesting!

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:46 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Wow Largo, could be interesting!  
yes im sure hoping they are overplaying this coming front Billsfan whew, yes i can sure use its rain but dont want anyone getting damage huh..we'll what they are saying maybe tomorrow afternoon so we'll know if we have to prepare anything.
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:49 am

im only 3-4-5 miles from the coastline and really dont want a stray tornado paying my area a visit whew. we always see these water spouts out in the gulf coming ashore here and near here, thankfully once they turn into weak tornado's they die out quickly but......................
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:51 am

(clipped from nws melbourne 10:30am discussion)......DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A strong late season disturbance will move across the Gulf of
Mexico toward the region on Sunday. A squall line containing strong
to possibly severe storms is expected to affect portions of the
Florida peninsula Sunday afternoon into evening. Locally damaging
winds are the primary threat, however isolated tornadoes will be
possible as well during the passage of these storms. Persons
should monitor forecasts into the upcoming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Pendergrast/Johnson
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:53 am

BILLSFAN..............958 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...
...MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents on Atlantic
beaches today.

Wind: Winds around 20 knots are possible on Atlantic waters tonight.
A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary.

Waves: Seas of 6 to 7 feet are possible early today over Gulf Stream
waters off Palm Beach County. Boaters should use caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A moderate to high risk of rip currents is expected to continue on
Atlantic beaches through Monday. An enhanced risk of rip currents is
also likely on Gulf beaches Monday and Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
night across South Florida. Thunderstorms are likely and some may be
strong to severe, with frequent cloud to ground lightning and
damaging winds the primary threats. Hail and isolated tornadoes are
also possible. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday
night along the Gulf coast and adjacent waters with a primary threat
of cloud to ground lightning.

Gusty southerly winds ahead of a cold front Sunday and Sunday night
may be hazardous to boaters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:55 am

so you see what they are trying to warn people about..it Could..get quite nasty in this line of storms thats going to come in Sunday sometime..nothing we can do but hope it weakens crossing the gulf huh
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:58 am

and folks......be careful driving home this afternoon etc........it IS Friday the 13th gee...good thing that front isnt coming here today huh LOL
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:23 pm

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:54 pm

Thanks Largo and LOL on Friday 13th!

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:57 pm

StPeteFLwx wrote:
BillsfaninSoFla wrote:I just saw on Mike's weather page that it could be in the 40's for you all and even the 50's in South Florida on Tuesday.  If that verifies, that's crazy.

I notice on Mike's page that he lives in Oldsmar.  Wonder if he would be interested in joining this blog.

Here is the March summary from the Florida Climate Center.  Cool and dry.
Climate Summary for Florida - March 2018


I enjoy his weather page! That would be something if he joined us.

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:01 pm

yes there are a few posters around that i'd love to have join us here,this is turning out to be one great Blog for Floridians huh..we look out for one another,my thanks to San for making this blog!!
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:04 pm

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:05 pm

kinda breezy around here today, gusting 22mph now, guess that number will rise as this strong front gets closer to Florida
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:09 pm

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:12 pm

well it looks like sunday afternoon and especially sunday evening will get real interesting in my area whew..
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:14 pm

i still cant get a model to say how strong the winds will be by my area when this line comes ashore here,maybe one of you that are better at this..please post any info ok..thanks.
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:15 pm

WD please pay attention to the warnings coming out sat nite/sunday morning for us..stay alert and safe up there ok
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:17 pm

i was just looking at the projected high temps for tomorrow in central florida..high 80's with some at 90 degree's inland..man that strong cold front is going to have alot of ammo to explode when it bangs into these high temps whew.
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:53 pm

might be bad for boating out in the gulf Sunday also,...................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
134 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue with a SCT/BKN cloud deck around 5
kft and winds 10 knots or less through the period. No
aviation impacts expected.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 905 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018/

UPDATE...
A broad area of high pressure centered near Bermuda ridges west-
southwest over the area producing continued pleasant weather.
Similiar to yesterday, latest observations and satellite imagery are
showing clear conditions which will continue through the day. The
12Z morning sounding is showing a subsidence inversion around 5 kft
which will limit any cloud development today. Temperatures will warm
up again to the mid to upper 80`s by this afternoon. Forecast looks
good for now with no changes needed.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue with winds 10 knots or less through the
period. No aviation impacts expected.

MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure is ridging across northern Florida and into
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today. Southeast winds will increase
to around cautionary levels over the offshore waters during the late
morning and early afternoon, before a weak sea breeze develops,
turning winds onshore near the coast.

Winds and seas will increase Saturday night and Sunday to advisory
levels as a strong cold front moves east through the waters, with
numerous thunderstorms expected along and ahead of the front. Winds
will subside by Monday as high pressure builds back in from the west.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 68 86 72 82 / 10 10 10 80
FMY 68 89 72 85 / 0 10 10 60
GIF 67 89 70 85 / 0 10 20 70
SRQ 67 83 72 79 / 0 0 10 80
BKV 62 88 68 81 / 0 10 10 80
SPG 71 86 72 82 / 0 0 10 80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...11/McKaughan
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:44 pm

Yikes that picture you posted at 2:09 today Largo. Scary looking !

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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:59 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Yikes that picture you posted at 2:09  today Largo.  Scary looking !
yes for sure im staying extra alert sunday whew..im hoping that something changes and this squall line thats going to come in here weakens, at least wind wise, we do need its rainfall..oh yeah leave out the hail and tornado's too please lol
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:00 pm

well the temps will be high in florida tomorrow, would be nice if we get some heavy overcast here to cool things down somewhat to limit severity.....
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:04 pm

I hope gomey will be alright up there,sure looks to be alot of severe stuff going on with this storm.......
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:11 pm

well some of the models are thinking 3-4-5 inches of rain when this comes ashore..well we will have to wait to see how fast this moves inland or will something make it stall..we'll just have to wait and see.
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:17 pm

NWS Mobile AL..........Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

High Rip Current Risk.

An organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms will
likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced potential of damaging straight line winds with these
storms, though a few brief tornadoes will also be possible. The slow
moving line of showers and thunderstorms will bring an increased
potential of heavy rainfall and an elevated risk of flooding across
locations especially along and west of a Greenville Alabama to
Pensacola Florida line Saturday and Saturday night. A limited risk
of flooding of urban and low lying areas can still be expected east
of this line across the rest of the region.

There will be a high risk of deadly rip currents along the Alabama
and northwest Florida panhandle beaches through the weekend. High
surf of 4 to 7 feet may also impact local beaches Saturday and
Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Saturday and Saturday night.

$$
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:20 pm

Billsfan..I clipped this from this afternoons NWS Miami discussion about sunday.........Sunday: Not too much change in the overall forecast as we round
out the weekend, with the main focus continuing to be for strong,
to possibly severe storms, along a pre-frontal squall line Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night.

Strong, high-amplitude upper level trough currently moving through
the Central US is expected to take on a negative tilt as it swings
out into the southeast early on Sunday. This will drive a well-
defined surface front the state, aided by a well-defined vorticity
lobe rotating across the northern Gulf Sunday afternoon and evening.
A 40 knot low level jet is forecast to setup across the region
ahead of the associated surface front, which will be accompanied by
a ribbon of deep tropical moisture. While the main upper level jet
will remain further north, the combination of these factors suggests
a strong squall line will be moving out ahead of the main front
through the state on Sunday.

The threat will evolve in two phases. Strong southerly flow
during the day on Sunday will bring a relatively warm day in the
low 90s for most locations. This will mean that even before the
front/any squall line arrives, high instability will drive the
development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms by the
early afternoon. Given the increasing low level wind field, CAPE
approaching 2000 J/kg, veering wind with height, and moderate bulk
shear of 25-30 kts, can`t rule out a few strong to severe storms
with this activity. This threat may be enhanced if any east coast
seabreeze develops, increasing the threat for rotating storms
along the coast.

Late Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight hours, the
front and associated squall line will push across the area from west
to east. With upper trough lifting out northeast of the area
during the evening, the vertical wind profiles become more
unidirectional with time. So would expect any threat of isolated
severe weather to transition to primarily gusty/locally damaging
winds as the squall line moves across the region.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Main upper level trough axis is forecast to cross
the region early Monday morning, driving the frontal boundary
through the region. Still minor timing differences between the GFS
and ECMWF, but consensus is that conditions should clear out just
after daybreak on Monday at the latest. A dry and stable air mass
will move in behind the front as the surface high settles overhead.
This first half of next week will feature relatively "cool" highs in
the upper 70s and low 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s and low
60s.

&&
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:59 pm

Good afternoon. Not really looking forward to Sunday. I hope it's more bark than bite. We shall see.

Arkansas looks to be under the gun today with quite a high tornado threat with significant tornado's possible.
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:06 pm

PDS tornado watch issued for a good chunk of Arkansas, along with NE TX, NW LA, and SE OK.  



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  Tornado Watch Number 40
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  150 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

  The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

  * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Much of Arkansas
    Northwest Louisiana
    Southeast Oklahoma
    Northeast Texas

  * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
    1000 PM CDT.

  ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

  * Primary threats include...
    Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
    Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
      inches in diameter likely
    Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

  SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are expected to track across the
  watch area this afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of
  tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds.  Strong tornadoes are
  possible.  Multiple rounds of severe storms are expected across this
  region.

  The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
  east and west of a line from 70 miles south of Longview TX to 20
  miles northeast of Flippin AR. For a complete depiction of the watch
  see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

  REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
  tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
  area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
  threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
  and possible warnings.

  &&

  OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...

  AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
  surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
  gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
  storm motion vector 24035.

  ...Hart
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by sangria on Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:54 pm

LargoFL wrote:i still cant get a model to say how strong the winds will be by my area when this line comes ashore here,maybe one of you that are better at this..please post any info ok..thanks.

Here ya go Largo...   use the bottom slider to change the date/time and this should be centered over you on the map - if not, just click on your area, you can zoom in and out.  

Then, you can change the model on the bottom right area of the page between NAM,GFS,Euro.  These readings are in KM, so you will need to calculate based on 1km = 1.15078 mph.

https://www.windy.com/?28.266,-82.705,5,m:erCadRt
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:29 am

sangria wrote:
LargoFL wrote:i still cant get a model to say how strong the winds will be by my area when this line comes ashore here,maybe one of you that are better at this..please post any info ok..thanks.

Here ya go Largo...   use the bottom slider to change the date/time and this should be centered over you on the map - if not, just click on your area, you can zoom in and out.  

Then, you can change the model on the bottom right area of the page between NAM,GFS,Euro.  These readings are in KM, so you will need to calculate based on 1km = 1.15078 mph.

https://www.windy.com/?28.266,-82.705,5,m:erCadRt
wow great site there San!!!!..well as far as i can see on that chart..20kt winds..so im assuming some gusts will be much higher.
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

Post by LargoFL on Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:36 am

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
416 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
150200-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
416 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GULF COAST BEACHES ON SUNDAY...

This is the hazardous outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the
east coast beaches. Swimming is not recommended. Heed the advise
of the beach patrol.

Fire Weather: Enhanced fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon across interior portions of Glades, Hendry and Collier
counties due to low relative humidity values.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening across South Florida. Thunderstorms are likely and some
may be strong to severe, with frequent cloud to ground lightning
and damaging winds the primary threats. Hail and isolated
tornadoes are also possible.

Gusty southerly winds ahead of a cold front Sunday and Sunday night
will be hazardous to boaters. Behind the cold front gusty northerly
winds will result in hazardous marine conditions continuing across
the South Florida waters through Monday before conditions begin to
improve by late Monday into Tuesday with fair conditions remaining
for much of the reminder of the week.

A moderate to high risk of rip currents is expected to continue
on the Atlantic beaches through the weekend and begin to subside on
Monday. It is forecast to remain low to moderate for much of the
upcoming week. The rip currents risk is forecast to increase for the
Gulf coast beaches on Sunday becoming high by late in the day and
remaining high through late Monday. It is then forecast to subside
and remain low for the rest of the week.

Low relative humidities on Tuesday will result in enhanced fire
weather conditions once again. Humidities are forecast to bounce back
for the reminder of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Sunday.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

PS
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Re: CLOSED April Showers

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