CLOSED May Blog: Higher Temps, Higher Dew Points, Higher Irritability

Good  morning y'all!  

I finally received enough sprinkles yesterday evening to have something measurable in the gauge.  Not much, but I'll take it.   .08"

Oh.. and my NWS Point and Click map is back to normal.

Good deal on the point and click.

Had an hour of on/off very light rain yesterday. It was more like a heavy drizzle than rain. Gauge had .05. 20% chance today with temps possibly cracking 90. No rain chances here the rest of the week.

My old observed precip zoomable map with different parameters to choose from is no longer valid. The search for a new one has me close but not quite what I'm looking for. This will have to do for now.

https://www.weather.gov/serfc/wxobsfcst_past_precipitation

I did find this one but it's not updated. I can click/drag to Florida. Even though the date is correct the map isn't. Some areas of interior western FL had over 1". The map shows nothing in that part of the state.

https://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?analysis_date=1473724800&lat=33.5597070000&location_name=lmrfc&location_type=rfc&lon=-89.1210930000&precip_layer=0.73&product=observed&recent_type=today&rfc_layer=1&state_layer=1&hsa_layer=-1&county_layer=-1&time_frame=1day&time_type=recent&units=eng&zoom=6&domain=current

Aug, that second link has a date/time stamp of:

Valid on: May 05, 2018 12:00 UTC

It hasn't updated yet - should be anytime now

Day 1 QPF (liquid precip) forecast. Favors east central to SE FL for potentially heavier totals.

sangria wrote:Aug, that second link has a date/time stamp of:

Valid on: May 05, 2018 12:00 UTC

It hasn't updated yet - should be anytime now

Thanks San. Forgot what day it was. It's too early, lol.

well just walked my dogs in the park, overcast skies with a very light sprinkle of moisture..not even enough to wet me as we walked and romped around the park...but as dry as it is here lately..every lil drop of moisture counts

I-4 from the north side of Orlando to Daytona is in the sweet spot for rain lovers.

Static loop.

yes Aug some area's getting it...................................Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
933 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018

FLC095-117-061530-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0008.180506T1333Z-180506T1530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Seminole FL-Orange FL-
933 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Western Seminole County in east central Florida...
Northwestern Orange County in east central Florida...

* Until 1130 AM EDT.

* At 932 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
minor flooding in the advisory area. Up to two and a half inches
of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Orlando, Sanford, Apopka, Altamonte Springs and Ocoee.

Additional rainfall of one to two inches is expected over the area.
This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 2855 8164 2868 8147 2884 8134 2883 8132
2883 8124 2845 8154 2846 8165

$$

Sedlock

Getting some very light rain now. I heard it rain some time overnight. We have '75 (somehow) in gauge.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Getting some very light rain now.  I heard it rain some time overnight. We have '75  (somehow) in gauge.

good luck down there Billsfan..my turn will come soon enough, rainy season only a few weeks away,

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Miami FL
259 PM EDT Sun May 6 2018

AMZ610-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>068-071-072-168-172-070000-
Lake Okeechobee-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-
Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-
Including the cities of Palmdale, Moore Haven, Clewiston,
LaBelle, Big Cypress Seminole Reservation, Pahokee, South Bay,
Belle Glade, Wellington, Lion Country Safari,
South County Regional Park, Palm Springs, Florida Gardens,
Aberdeen, Boca West, Miccosukee Indian Reservation, Markham Park,
Coconut Creek, Coral Springs, Tamarac, Sunrise, Plantation,
Davie, Cooper City, Hollywood, Pembroke Pines, Miramar, Jupiter,
West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Pompano Beach, Fort Lauderdale,
Fort Lauderdale Beach, and Hollywood Beach
259 PM EDT Sun May 6 2018

.NOW...
Through 8 pm, scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue to affect the Lake Okeechobee Region,
the Palm Beaches, and adjacent Atlantic coastal waters. Brief
gusty downpours and a few lightning strikes are possible.

$$

Good Monday morning Folks!!...well no rain by me yesterday but one misty 5 minute sprinkle..but congrats to those who did...hardly any rain chances again for my area but maybe some for the east coast folks...well Blogs Coffee-Tea-Cocoa..are perking for when you get here enjoy..have a wonderful day everyone!!

Morning All,
Well I got .12 in the bucket yesterday. I saw some 1-2 inches to the east of Tampa. Anyone get some of that?
Now we wait till sat. sunday time frame.
Quite foggy up my way this am.
Have a great day!!
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
Well I got .12 in the bucket yesterday. I saw some 1-2 inches to the east of Tampa. Anyone get some of that?
Now we wait till sat. sunday time frame.
Quite foggy up my way this am.
Have a great day!!
John Z-hills

good morning John,yes im hoping this next weekend we get some rain.

NWS Miami..........Mon May 7 2018

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SOUTHEASTERN METRO AREAS LATE...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Lightning: Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the
interior and east coast metro regions mainly from this afternoon
into the early evening hours. Couple of the thunderstorms could
become strong late this afternoon into early this evening over the
metro areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties including the adjacent
coastal waters. The primary impacts from the strong storms will be
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

Wind: The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up
to 55 mph.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thunderstorms will again be possible over parts of South Florida
Friday and through the weekend. Lightning is the primary threat. Rip
currents risk could increase along southeast Florida coast with risk
becoming moderate by late in the week.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Baxter

Good afternoon. First chance to stop by today. I certainly can't see getting any bad storms today?

Largo, did you see Levi’s latest GFS run? We will have to keep an eye out in the Gulf. And this is what’s trending now and not a forecast.

PuppyToes wrote:Largo, did you see Levi’s latest GFS run? We will have to keep an eye out in the Gulf. And this is what’s trending now and not a forecast.

Can you guys post a link for that?

Tropicaltidbits.com

Thanks PT!

It's fun to see GFS throw a storm 300+ hours out this early in the season! I wonder how bad that model will be this year?!?!

When I go to Tropicaltidbits.com all’s I see are old ones. ?

Once on the homepage bills you need to click the "forecast models" tab up top. It defaults to the GFS but you can also check on a few others along with selecting all sorts of different parameters of choice.

Latest 12z GFS run wants to draw something north with a surface reflection off the northern Honduras coast then take it to Louisiana. Images below are at 300 and 384 hours. As PT/san sorta combined eluded to, not a forecast and WAY too far out. I could be wrong but I think it's unusual to see something coming out of the deep tropics this early. This time of year is typically closer to home with the deep tropics more of a concern late season.

I like the Pivotal site for precip/QPF forecast as it also provides actual numbers.  The good accumulation is about 7 days out on the GFS that was initialized at 06Z this morning, but this is an awful purdy model today!  

Now you can change the region, change the model time/date, change which model you want to view, change the parameter you to view.  All of that is pretty easy to do either at the top or on the left.  Their 12Z seems to be hung up on hour 66, so this is the link to the 06Z.

Pivotal Site GFS 06Z Model Total QPF

PuppyToes wrote:Largo, did you see Levi’s latest GFS run? We will have to keep an eye out in the Gulf. And this is what’s trending now and not a forecast.

yes PT I saw it,GFS has been hinting at something crossing over from the Pacific..too far out in time to believe just yet ok

Billsfan let us know how this plays out thru the week ok........................NWS MIAMI....Tue May 8 2018

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR PORTION OF THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: There is a slight chance of thunderstorms in portions
of the interior of South Florida, mainly in the afternoon. The main
hazard will be lightning.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast to increase across
South Florida for the latter half of the week, into the weekend.

The risk of rip currents could increase slightly along the Southeast
Florida coast for the mid to late-week period.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

7-day forecast from baynews9 for the Tampa bay area,notice upwards rain chances..........

Good Tuesday Morning folks!!...nice Warm sunny day ahead...Blogs Coffee-Tea-Cocoa are being perked for when you get here,grab a cup and relax and let us know your here ok....have a great day everyone!!

the Euro and CMC models are mentioning a possible something riding up or just off the east coast towards the end of next week heading northward so far..lets see what they are saying..oh by next Tuesday huh.

Morning All,
Wow got another morning in the 50's
54 outside when I left for work. Really nice!!
Have a great day all!!
Enjoy the low humidity.
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
 Wow got another morning in the 50's
54 outside when I left for work. Really nice!!
Have a great day all!!
Enjoy the low humidity.
John Z-hills

good morning john,yes the mornings are still nice huh, hope it sticks around for a few more weeks.

Aug in 8-9 days maybe heed any warnings ok..who knows which model is right.....

LargoFL wrote:

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
 Wow got another morning in the 50's
54 outside when I left for work. Really nice!!
Have a great day all!!
Enjoy the low humidity.
John Z-hills

good morning john,yes the mornings are still nice huh, hope it sticks around for a few more weeks.

I didn't check the thermometer the past two days, but it has been cool and in the low to mid 50's until the sun gets above the horizon. Looks like upper 50's tonight then we are probably in for a long stretch without a 50 degree reading.

As far as the models predicting a storm end of May, don't they always start spinning up "FAKE" storms every year at this time. It is climatology. I am not even going to pay attention to the models until a system forms.

April weather summary from the Florida Climate Center.  Kind of a mixed bag, but looks like Jax and Gainesville broke precip records for the month.
Florida Climate Center Summary for April

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
Wow got another morning in the 50's
54 outside when I left for work. Really nice!!
Have a great day all!!
Enjoy the low humidity.
John Z-hills

Lucky you!! I had 79 on my way in.

StPeteFLwx wrote:April weather summary from the Florida Climate Center.  Kind of a mixed bag, but looks like Jax and Gainesville broke precip records for the month.
Florida Climate Center Summary for April

nice site there st pete...i see tampa area down .013 rainfall wise..my guess is MY city down more than that, this morning i had to run my sprinklers an hour each zone, so dry it is by my house, i have alot of tropicals outside that need the water with this HOT sunshine and no rain...well anyway, our rainy season begins in 3 weeks and maybe we have a gulf system before that.

It’s another beautiful day in FL! Got a crew working on the driveway, concrete mixer arrived and we should be good to go for the rainy season. There have been hints tropical wx might be starting early from different mets and after all June first might be the official kickoff day, we certainly could be earlier or later. I really like that pivotal weather site and I’ve saved it to my favorites.

PuppyToes wrote:It’s another beautiful day in FL! Got a crew working on the driveway, concrete mixer arrived and we should be good to go for the rainy season. There have been hints tropical wx might be starting early from different mets and after all June first might be the official kickoff day, we certainly could be earlier or later. I really like that pivotal weather site and I’ve saved it to my favorites.

ok good luck PT

StPeteFLwx wrote:April weather summary from the Florida Climate Center.  Kind of a mixed bag, but looks like Jax and Gainesville broke precip records for the month.
Florida Climate Center Summary for April

Quite a bit of action for a normally silent month climatology speaking. Had a bit over 6" here for April. It was nice sans the hail storm.

Good deal on the new driveway PT! It should cure in no time with the current weather pattern.

A general observation - I get WD and PT mixed up on occasion. You both have very similar writing styles. Could just be the way my brain processes information.

well bought alot of flowering plants at walmart,all planted and watered, I want the property nice looking when my daughter and family come for 2 weeks in June,cant wait to play with my grand kids!!

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1205 PM EDT Tue May 8 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW
35 PERCENT HIGH ERC`S AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 MPH OR GREATER
THROUGH 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.Very dry air will support humidity values below 35 percent over
the warning area this afternoon. These low values combined with
high ERC`s and sustained winds of 15 mph or greater will support
red flag conditions.

FLZ061-260-262-265-082200-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0015.180508T1605Z-180508T2200Z/
DeSoto-Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-
1205 PM EDT Tue May 8 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR...
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT HIGH ERC`S AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 MPH OR GREATER...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL has
issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect until 6 PM EDT this
evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...DeSoto...Inland Sarasota...Inland Charlotte...
Inland Lee.

* WIND...Northeast 15 to 20 mph.

* HUMIDITY...25 to 30 percent

* ERC...37 to 42.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

it looks like a replay weekend rain, seems to be I-4 southward like last weekends rains......

interesting GFS model run..this time Tuesday next week.....WD-PT-Jenny this goes into big bend................

Yay Largo! I'm sure you can't wait for you daughter and grand kids visit!