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CLOSED May Blog: Higher Temps, Higher Dew Points, Higher Irritability

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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 5:47 am

CLOSED May Blog:  Higher Temps, Higher Dew Points, Higher Irritability - Page 6 Fl_rain_today
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 5:49 am

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
528 AM EDT Sun May 13 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-131500-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
528 AM EDT Sun May 13 2018

.NOW...

...Showers Increasing and spreading north into the Treasure Coast...

At 515 AM, local doppler radars were showing scattered showers with
moderate to heavy downpours increasing over and offshore southeast
Florida, spreading north into Martin and Saint Lucie Counties. the
activity was moving northwest at 10 to 15 MPH and will spread north
across Okeechobee and Indian River Counties early this morning, and
eventually into southern Osceola and Brevard Counties by mid
morning.

This activity will produce rainfall amounts of a few hundredths to a
tenth of an inch in many areas, with higher amounts ranging from one
quarter to one half inch in areas south of Fort Pierce and Fort Drum
that receive heavier downpours.

Farther north, a few sprinkles of very light rain north of Orlando
and Titusville, moving toward the northwest. Little to no measurable
rainfall is expected from this activity.

Coverage and intensity of showers will continue to increase and
spread north as the day progresses, with a few thunderstorms
possible, mainly in the afternoon.


$$
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Post by StAugustineFL Sun May 13, 2018 6:06 am

Morning. That's basically it Largo. If you are interested in the scientific methodology, here's an excerpt from the National Weather Service.

Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service routinely include a "PoP" (probability of precipitation) statement, which is often expressed as the "chance of rain" or "chance of precipitation".
EXAMPLE

ZONE FORECASTS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
119 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

GAZ021-022-032034-044046-055-057-090815-
CHEROKEE-CLAYTON-COBB-DEKALB-FORSYTH-GWINNETT-HENRY-NORTH FULTON-
ROCKDALE-SOUTH FULTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...CONYERS...DECATUR...
EAST POINT...LAWRENCEVILLE...MARIETTA
119 PM EDT THU MAY x 2008

.THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
What does this "40 percent" mean? ...will it rain 40 percent of of the time? ...will it rain over 40 percent of the area?

The "Probability of Precipitation" (PoP) describes the chance of precipitation occurring at any point you select in the area.

How do forecasters arrive at this value?

Mathematically, PoP is defined as follows:

PoP = C x A where "C" = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where "A" = the percent of the area that will receive measureable precipitation, if it occurs at all.
So... in the case of the forecast above, if the forecaster knows precipitation is sure to occur ( confidence is 100% ), he/she is expressing how much of the area will receive measurable rain. ( PoP = "C" x "A" or "1" times ".4" which equals .4 or 40%.)

But, most of the time, the forecaster is expressing a combination of degree of confidence and areal coverage. If the forecaster is only 50% sure that precipitation will occur, and expects that, if it does occur, it will produce measurable rain over about 80 percent of the area, the PoP (chance of rain) is 40%. ( PoP = .5 x .8 which equals .4 or 40%. )

In either event, the correct way to interpret the forecast is: there is a 40 percent chance that rain will occur at any given point in the area.

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Post by StAugustineFL Sun May 13, 2018 6:13 am

A Happy Mother's Day to the moms amongst the group!
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 6:53 am

CLOSED May Blog:  Higher Temps, Higher Dew Points, Higher Irritability - Page 6 Mothers-day_759nidhi8
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 7:46 am

well one TV met says alot of area's around the state could pick up 4-6 inches of rain spread out over the next 6-7 days..and she says..a few area's may..pick up 8-10 inches....good luck folks who need it badly.
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 7:47 am

how is it down in Your area Billsfan?
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Post by sangria Sun May 13, 2018 7:54 am

Good morning everyone and Happy Mother's Day to all of the moms out there!

Do y'all ever look at your NWS hourly forecast to get a better idea of when rain "might" be beginning in your area?   I like to do so when I'm going to be driving somewhere because I HATE driving in the rain!
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Post by StAugustineFL Sun May 13, 2018 9:10 am

sangria wrote:Good morning everyone and Happy Mother's Day to all of the moms out there!

Do y'all ever look at your NWS hourly forecast to get a better idea of when rain "might" be beginning in your area?   I like to do so when I'm going to be driving somewhere because I HATE driving in the rain!

Not really. I usually just decipher from the forecast discussion and/or forecast itself. Here's yours which I'm sure you've checked!

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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 10:09 am

we;; just walked my dogs and overhead pretty heavy overcast clouds and just felt one drop so far,sure hope my area is in that 4-6inch rainfall..could sure use it here.
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 10:11 am

CLOSED May Blog:  Higher Temps, Higher Dew Points, Higher Irritability - Page 6 Image16
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 10:12 am

CLOSED May Blog:  Higher Temps, Higher Dew Points, Higher Irritability - Page 6 AMX_loop
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Post by PuppyToes Sun May 13, 2018 11:30 am

Happy Mother’s Day to all the Mom’s out there. I miss my Mom more than anything. Ed and I are going to have a nice quiet steak dinner grilled out back with copious amounts of beverage. Whelp, the driveway is done and we are awaiting the rain in the forecast. Looks like it will be here later than sooner for our location so we’ve a nice day ahead. Got some high clouds today masking the sun low 80’s w breeze. Perfect FL day!
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sun May 13, 2018 11:53 am

Good afternoon everyone! Happy Mothers Day to moms .

The rain has just started, light so far .

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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 1:26 pm

CLOSED May Blog:  Higher Temps, Higher Dew Points, Higher Irritability - Page 6 1526232121
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 1:28 pm

local tv met is saying rain should be up by me around 4-5pm but, rain chances go up to 70% overnight into tomorrow morning..we'll see...we have days of this coming.
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 1:29 pm

I hope all the Mom's out there are enjoying their special day!!
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sun May 13, 2018 1:34 pm

Thanks Largo. Happy mother's day to Mrs Largo.

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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 1:54 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks Largo.  Happy mother's day to Mrs Largo.
thanks Billsfan!!
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 1:55 pm

well humid here. no rain yet,but temps are a lil lower due to the cloud cover..would like a good downpour overnight here whew.
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 1:57 pm

And so the warnings begin...............................Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Miami FL
135 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

FLC021-051-131930-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0003.180513T1735Z-180513T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Collier FL-Hendry FL-
135 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...
Northwestern Collier County in southwestern Florida...
Western Hendry County in southern Florida...

* Until 330 PM EDT.

* At 134 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding. Overflowing poor
drainage areas will result in flooding in the advisory area. Up to
two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Flooding will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Collier and western Hendry Counties including State Road 82
between Immokalee and Fort Myers.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of canals
and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 2642 8156 2658 8157 2659 8150 2640 8149
2640 8160 2642 8160

$$

RAG
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 2:00 pm

Weatherbug site has this warning, stay alert folks.............................Metro areas including Miami, Orlando and Tampa will be at risk for areas of urban flooding. If you come across water covering the roads, do not attempt to cross it as the water is likely deeper than it appears. Remember, “Turn Around, Don’t Drown!”
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sun May 13, 2018 2:00 pm

Stopped raining for now. Cloudy still. Haven’t seen the sun since Friday. Fine with me!

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sun May 13, 2018 2:01 pm

Thanks for updates and warnings Largo.

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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 2:14 pm

Billsfan..gatekeeper over in doc's blog posted this..stay a lil more alert towards end of May ok..CLOSED May Blog:  Higher Temps, Higher Dew Points, Higher Irritability - Page 6 Ce435b27122bbbb48972e11a387f0c728e633bbc8a33321d50a6251715ccee0e
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 3:29 pm

CLOSED May Blog:  Higher Temps, Higher Dew Points, Higher Irritability - Page 6 Florida
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 3:30 pm

well solid overcast here and right now its starting to sprinkle rain here by my area
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Post by LargoFL Sun May 13, 2018 3:32 pm

NWS MIAMI..244 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

.NOW...
Scattered to numerous showers along with isolated thunderstorms
will continue to be possible across South Florida and adjactent
waters through the remainder of this afternoon. The main threats
will be the potential for ponding of water on roadways from heavy
rainfall as well as some lightning strikes. General rainfall
amounts of half an inch to 1 inch can be expected across much of
South Florida during the next few hours. However, the heaviest
activity could produce higher amounts in a shorter period of time.

$$

Hagen
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sun May 13, 2018 3:46 pm

I just came back from my office, and it is absolutely black skies to the west of us. It must be pouring as I saw someone post on Mikes' s weather page that there's some flooding in Coral Springs about 8 miles to the North and 8-10 miles to the west of me. Nothing here.

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sun May 13, 2018 5:49 pm

I'm beginning to have my doubts about us getting much rain. Looks like you west coasters are more likely Good luck. It's got a yellow X.

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Post by sangria Sun May 13, 2018 6:05 pm

Hope your doubts prove wrong Bills and that you end up with a nice soaking!  Drove up to the folks today and it was cloudy most of the time.  A little sun tried to peek out around 1ish but the clouds said nono

NHC put a special TWO today on the mess in the Gulf

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
340 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the
Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated
with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level
low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall
across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during
the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sun May 13, 2018 6:38 pm

Didn't some models a few weeks ago have "something" hitting that area?

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Post by sangria Sun May 13, 2018 7:42 pm

Yep Bills, the GFS kept coming out with a ghost storm.  I haven't looked at it in a couple of days but I thought it dropped it.

Actually as I think about it, that storm the GFS had was coming out of the Carib, not a low in the gulf.
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sun May 13, 2018 7:46 pm

Thanks San. Lose track of models
Getting some light rain. Good thing as I didn't run the sprinklers on our last water day, Thursday

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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 4:07 am

NWS MIAMI....353 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

...LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS DUE TO
WIND...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic
Beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across
South Florida and the Atlantic and Gulf waters. The main hazards
will be lightning and the potential for heavy rainfall.

Flooding: Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible,
mainly in the west and east coast of South Florida. Ponding of water
on roadways is possible in low lying and poor drainage areas.

Wind: Conditions will be hazardous for Small Craft on the Atlantic
Waters today. Winds up to 20 knots are expected.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts will be possible for all local
waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Period of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across
South Florida with above normal rain chances continuing through
the week into next weekend. Several periods of heavy rainfall may be
possible. Despite ongoing drought conditions, this may lead to local
flooding concerns into the week.

There might be an enhance risk of rip currents along Atlantic
beaches through portion of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$
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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 4:15 am

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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 4:19 am

Good Monday Morning Folks!! well everything is soaking wet outside finally!! right now here its only light rain,no wind to speak of..NWS is saying 90% rain chances today..wonderful!!!....well have a good day folks and drive carefully ok.
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Post by severstorm Mon May 14, 2018 6:44 am

Morning All,
Happy mothers day to all the mom's out there.
I got .24 in the bucket between yesterday and last night. This week shall be interesting. We will either get a lot of rain or not much. We shall see.
I hope everyone gets some rain.
Have a great day!!
John Z-hills

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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 6:53 am

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
 Happy mothers day to all the mom's out there.
I got .24 in the bucket between yesterday and last night. This week shall be interesting. We will either get a lot of rain or not much. We shall see.
I hope everyone gets some rain.
Have a great day!!
John Z-hills
good morning John!! glad you got some rain over there..I got either .017 or .030 depending on which station near me,but everything outside is soaking wet so im happy, i sure needed this rain..well have a great day john...drive safely ok.
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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 6:54 am

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
644 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

FLZ063-066-141130-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
644 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HENDRY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GLADES COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM EDT...

* At 644 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm near Devils Garden, or 8 miles south
of Montura, moving north at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds will be possible with
this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
Clewiston, Moore Haven, Montura, Devils Garden, Harlem and Lake
Hicpochee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2643 8100 2646 8119 2687 8116 2683 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 1044Z 189DEG 19KT 2652 8109

$$

RAG
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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 6:56 am

possible tornadic storm down in southeast florida right now..heed local warnings folks..stay alert and safe.
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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 6:58 am

bad storm on the east coast just north of west palm beach now,,moving slowly northward..stay alert down there.
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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 7:03 am

.....TORNADO..........Tornado Warning
FLC085-141130-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0008.180514T1048Z-180514T1130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
648 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Martin County in east central Florida...

* Until 730 AM EDT.

* At 647 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located 10 miles east of Indiantown, moving northwest
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Martin County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2719 8060 2721 8034 2697 8026 2696 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1047Z 155DEG 15KT 2699 8030

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

15
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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 7:07 am

OK OK..im perking the Coffee-Tea-Cocoa lol..looks like an active weather morning for Florida.
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Post by StPeteFLwx Mon May 14, 2018 7:47 am

Largo I saw on the news a transformer blew up by you (Ulmerton and Starkey). Are you getting lightning, or just Monday?

About half an inch here past 24 hours.

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Post by waterdipper Mon May 14, 2018 8:22 am

Morning all. We had a nice weekend weather wise and some fun times were had. Spent Saturday fishing with a buddy who is moving back to Maine in a week. Yesterday for Mother's Day we headed out on the boat after church and dragged the kids on the tube and then up pulled up to the beach for a little island time with some extended family who also brought their boat out.

So far not much rain here. It started early this AM, but it has been light and has added up to .25". Not going to complain though as it knocked the dust down and it looks like we should be getting a bit more the next several days.

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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 8:25 am

StPeteFLwx wrote:Largo I saw on the news a transformer blew up by you (Ulmerton and Starkey).  Are you getting lightning, or just Monday?

About half an inch here past 24 hours.
yes i saw that on the news earlier..no lightning and thunder that i saw so far..but maybe before i woke up?..power lines down on the roadway, starkey rd was closed both sides
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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 8:40 am

oh boy, its really coming down heavy here now.
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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 8:42 am


The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
Lake Okeechobee...

* Until 915 AM EDT.

* At 811 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing
waterspouts were located along a line extending from near Clewiston
to near Lake Harbor, moving north at 20 knots.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts 34 knots or greater.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly
higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

* Locations impacted include...
Canal Point, Liberty Point, Clewiston, Sand Cut, Pahokee, Buckhead
Ridge, Lake Harbor and Moore Haven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.

Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily
overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Seek safe harbor
immediately.

Report severe weather to the Coast Guard or the National Weather
Service. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook
and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2716 8071 2711 8066 2696 8060 2674 8063
2666 8068 2664 8072 2669 8092 2674 8102
2682 8103 2684 8109 2689 8112 2693 8112
2695 8107 2695 8109 2697 8109 2699 8106
2707 8108 2720 8093 2715 8087 2721 8080
TIME...MOT...LOC 1211Z 177DEG 21KT 2677 8094 2670 8072

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...>34KTS

$$

RAG
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Post by LargoFL Mon May 14, 2018 9:16 am

waterdipper wrote:Morning all. We had a nice weekend weather wise and some fun times were had. Spent Saturday fishing with a buddy who is moving back to Maine in a week. Yesterday for Mother's Day we headed out on the boat after church and dragged the kids on the tube and then up pulled up to the beach for a little island time with some extended family who also brought their boat out.

So far not much rain here. It started early this AM, but it has been light and has added up to .25". Not going to complain though as it knocked the dust down and it looks like we should be getting a bit more the next several days.
good morning WD
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