CLOSED May Blog: Higher Temps, Higher Dew Points, Higher Irritability

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1250 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

FLZ041-044>046-141-147-191745-
Northern Lake County FL-Coastal Volusia FL-
Northern Brevard County FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-
1250 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEMINOLE...NORTHWESTERN
BREVARD...CENTRAL ORANGE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 1247 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms developing along I-4 extending from Orlando to Daytona
Beach. Movement of individual storms was to the north at 10 to 15
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Deltona, Daytona Beach, Port Orange and Sanford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2888 8078 2887 8078 2890 8082 2889 8082
2875 8078 2880 8085 2867 8082 2869 8079
2869 8078 2865 8082 2863 8079 2834 8079
2852 8162 2926 8122 2927 8115 2942 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 216DEG 129KT 2931 8102 2859 8135

$$

Johnson

several flood warnings and watches up along florida's east coast counties..stay alert and safe over there..some strong storms there also

im wondering IF..these heavy rains will ever make it over here? lol east coasters hogging all the action lol

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
114 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

FLC117-127-192015-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0019.180519T1714Z-180519T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Seminole FL-Volusia FL-
114 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...
Seminole County in east central Florida...
Central Volusia County in east central Florida...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 110 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to an area
of thunderstorms from Casselberry to Daytona Beach. This will
cause minor flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will result
in minor flooding in the advisory area. Up to one inch of rain has
already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Deltona, Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Sanford and Altamonte Springs.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area. This
additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 2918 8100 2912 8098 2912 8096 2932 8106
2901 8088 2901 8091 2906 8091 2861 8101
2861 8132 2864 8133 2864 8138 2927 8118
2927 8115 2936 8115 2942 8113

$$

Johnson

AUG...stay alert up there..the strong storms are coming up the coastline towards you..

Good afternoon Largo and everyone from waterlogged Fort Lauderdale. The grass and plants are loving it, however the grass may be three feet tall by the time it gets cut.

I'll keep an eye on it Largo but short term guidance pretty much kills the bulk of it off before reaching my area due to a pocket of dry air aloft. I'm only expecting a period of very light rain this afternoon.

This is valid from 11 AM today through 11 AM tomorrow.



Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...Florida...

Another wet day across Florida as well. PWATs and 850 mb moisture
transport should both be higher today than previous days,
potentially resulting in a wetter overall day. Activity should
initially focus along the west coast sea breeze boundary, before
potentially shifting to the east coast overnight. Most of the 0z
high res guidance is quite wet over eastern FL with this overnight
activity. The potential is certainly there for these heavier
totals given the increased southeasterly flow, strong convergence
signature and near climatological record PWATs. Appears like the
high res models are hinting at a subtle wave riding north,
interacting with these favorable parameters and producing a period
of south to north training. Tough to say for sure if this will
materialize, but certainly something to watch, as given wet
antecedent conditions, a greater flood threat could exist. With
the above environmental parameters in place, 0z HREF probabilities
of locally exceeding 5" in the moderate to high category, and wet
antecedent conditions, will go with a Slight risk across the
southeast Florida coast. Lower confidence with this risk area, but
the conditional risk appears high enough to warrant it at this
time and will monitor trends through the day.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good afternoon Largo and everyone from waterlogged Fort Lauderdale. The grass and plants are loving it, however the grass may be three feet tall by the time it gets cut.  

From famine to feast down there. Hang in bills. Only another 6" or more coming the next several days!

Maybe some hope for the west side of the state.  Storms are moving towards the coast.

Static loop

Yeah Aug,, for sure feast or famine. And hurting all of us in the wallet. Can't work in the rain
We certainly don't need 6 more inches of rain.

Hey Bills what do you do?

What app have people been using for a quick radar image for cell phones? I’ve been using Wunderground, but lately it has been slow and unreliable

PT- I'm an office manager for a pest control company. While I work, the guys can't and the company makes no money. I get massive headaches trying to reschedule all the work . (Especially house tentings)
My hubby is a aborist and he can't work in rain either .Both my kids are servers and this weather puts a "damper" on business .

St Pete-have you tried Weather Channel?

StPeteFLwx wrote:What app have people been using for a quick radar image for cell phones?  I’ve been using Wunderground, but lately it has been slow and unreliable

I use MyRadar. It's great!

Thanks Aug! I just downloaded it . It does look great.

Gotcha Bills. I can just feel the migraines begin! You’ve got to deal with customers and your guys, quite a handful!

For a wx app go to App Store-free WGN Weather 9. It’s out of Chicago but you can change locations and add several favorites, which I do. Also there is Hi-Def Radar App Store I use don’t recall if free. Check it out.

Good Sunday Morning Folks!!....wow I got one great thunderstorm along with very heavy rain,picked up...Precipitation 1.52 inches ... in about an hour or so,boy did it come down heavy here..and i was dancing with joy lol...my area really need that good soaking rain.....well still early yet. we'll see what the nws mets are saying in awhile.........have a great day everyone!

Sun May 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected today.
Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing gusty
winds...heavy rain...and frequent deadly lightning strikes.
Localized flooding of streets and low lying flood prone areas is
possible.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Several days of heavy rain will cause to the Alafia river at
Lithia to rise near flood stage today. If additional heavy rain
impacts the river basin this afternoon, the Alafia may rise above
flood stage. Residents living along the river should remain aware
of water levels and be ready to move to higher ground should
flooding be observed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected for the
next several days Thunderstorms will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds...locally heavy rain...and frequent deadly
lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

McKaughan

folks some river/stream flood warnings out, please check your local warnings ..stay alert and safe for any flooding ok...well sprinkling rain here by me this morning,and nws is saying expect rain around here again today..wonderful news for me lol

it seems gomey and all of us in ala/fla need to keep a sharp look out next weekend..........

Morning. Glad you received a good drenching Largo.

The eastern side of the southern half of the peninsula continues to be inundated.

Some chatter in the NWS AFD's about the potential disturbance next weekend.......

Tampa/Ruskin:

Late in the period, models continue
to differ on their handling of tropical moisture/disturbance
moving out of the western Caribbean. GFS appears to be an
easterly outlier compared to ECMWF and CMC but still plenty
of time to see how things will play out in the coming days.

Jax:

Attention will turn towards the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this
week as a developing mid/upper low over the central Gulf of Mexico
potentially lifts tropical moisture northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula. The mid/upper low will
keep strong southwesterly wind shear in place over the Gulf of
Mexico, which would hinder any significant tropical development as a
weak low pressure center potentially crosses western Cuba by Friday.

Melbourne:

Both GFS and ECMWF show a mid level trough developing over the
Gulf of Mexico late in the week. The GFS retrogrades a piece of
energy SW from the base of a departing shortwave trough off the US
east coast. The real difference is how each model handles lower
pressure at the surface. The ECMWF continues to show low pressure
developing directly underneath the upper low over the central Gulf
on Fri. This looks suspect as the best support for sfc low
pressure would be to the ascending (east) side of the upper low,
closer to the GFS solution. But both models show deep tropical
moisture overspreading the FL peninsula during the first part of
the upcoming holiday weekend which will prompt high rain chances
with a threat for heavy rain and localized flooding due to already
wet conditions.

Key West:

there is at least a possibility of low pressure
stretching across the local area later this week and into next
weekend. However, long range models continue to disagree among
themselves with this potential low pressure area, and most are
having run-to-run consistency problems. A low confidence forecast
remains through the later periods of the coming forecast.
However, it remains a good bet to keep rain chances well above
the norm for this time of year.

Mobile:

The forecast becomes complicated late this
week into the weekend as medium range model solutions indicate
development of upper level low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico
Thursday into Friday, and possibly an area of surface low pressure
developing and lifting northward somewhere over the Gulf late this
week into this weekend. There is lot of spread in the guidance on
the track and development of this feature and will be something
to monitor over the next several days.

From Ryan Maue's Twitter feed..........

50-knots of wind shear means Gulf of Mexico is closed for tropical storm development for next 5-days. But there will still be boatloads of tropical moisture for Florida and more rain.

Morning everyone...  Maue's tweet is dead on about the shear.  Current wind shear

How about some radar estimated rain totals yesterday through current time??

EDIT: Looks like JAX and Miami are only rain totals for today.

Tampa CWS





Jacksonville CWS





Miami CWS

Thanks Aug in my county we really needed that rain and today looks sort of wet as well

good morning San..yeah we dont need any TS etc here, too early yet

Question......with ALL that rain coming down in east Florida 4-6-8- inches of rain or MORE...doesnt that bring on sink holes etc?

no model can be believed this early 8- 9-10 days out..this time next week we'll see what they are predicting then huh.

LargoFL wrote:Question......with ALL that rain coming down in east Florida 4-6-8- inches of rain or MORE...doesnt that bring on sink holes etc?

Hey Largo, I don't believe that SE Florida has an issue with sinkholes like we do in central and west central Florida.  We are mostly sitting on limestone in our area, and that is what causes the sinkhole problems for us.

sangria wrote:

LargoFL wrote:Question......with ALL that rain coming down in east Florida 4-6-8- inches of rain or MORE...doesnt that bring on sink holes etc?

Hey Largo, I don't believe that SE Florida has an issue with sinkholes like we do in central and west central Florida.  We are mostly sitting on limestone in our area, and that is what causes the sinkhole problems for us.

ok thanks, hope we dont get enough rain to start the sinkholes, man they are scary huh

well raining here by my area now.........................................................

Regarding sinkholes seems there are many sites that DOOM the entire state but I'll go with this image since it speaks to reported sinkholes. San is correct in her thinking and my memory.

Wow. Lot's of catching up to do after missing a week of active weather.

At the homestead:
Mon: 2-2.5 inches of rain - drove I-4 to Orlando --rained all the way
Tue: tr
Wed-Fri: zippo
Sat: .1
Today: working on 2nd tenth.

Great storms in Orlando the whole week. Since I ditched the truck for the week, got caught for a good soaking a couple of times. Spent Thursday with my daughter at Universal. We just got thru the coasters and water rides before they got shut down. Totally drenched!

Lookin' to be a drippy day today.

I hope everyone is well, and got some good rains out of this.

JRnOldsmar wrote:Wow.  Lot's of catching up to do after missing a week of active weather.

At the homestead:
Mon:  2-2.5 inches of rain - drove I-4 to Orlando --rained all the way
Tue:  tr
Wed-Fri:  zippo
Sat:  .1
Today:  working on 2nd tenth.

Great storms in Orlando the whole week.  Since I ditched the truck for the week, got caught for a good soaking a couple of times.  Spent Thursday with my daughter at Universal.  We just got thru the coasters and water rides before they got shut down.  Totally drenched!  

Lookin' to be a drippy day today.

I hope everyone is well, and got some good rains out of this.

hiya and welcome back JR!!..we here really need this rain, been so dry

Morning Blog. .02 yesterday and .40 from 9 am until now. Incredible moisture streaming in and I’d say it’s been the wettest period since we’ve been here. As far as the sumptin next week, it looks like more rain and the questions are, how much, how long and where.

Hey JR. Thanks for checking in.

Well, I just dumped five more inches out of the gauge. That's all it holds so not sure if we got more than that. Widespread reports of flooding in areas. Enough already!

up to 1.65 inches today here so far..im hoping for 2 inches or more.my grass and plants are all saying Thank You LOL

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Miami FL
1059 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018


FLZ071-072-172-210000-
/O.EXT.KMFL.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180521T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Coastal Broward-
1059 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* a portion of South Florida, including the following areas,
Coastal Broward, Inland Broward, and Metro Broward.

* Until 8 PM EDT this evening

* Significant road closures and pumps already running at maximum
capacity will make the area susceptable to flooding with any
additional significant rainfall accumulations.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Billsfan are you ok if flooding begins in your immediate vicinity?

European and CMC seem to favor Alabama with this next storm around memorial day.

im not trusting the models yet with this supposed next storm ok..way too early yet.

Yes Largo-we're ok, no flooding by me, mostly to the North of me. Thanks for asking!
No rain in two hours. Hubby may try to mow the yard.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Yes Largo-we're ok, no flooding by me, mostly to the North of me.    Thanks for asking!
No rain in two hours.  Hubby may try to mow the yard.  

glad your ok Billsfan, rain here is mostly drizzle and sprinkles .. rain chances supposed to lessen sometime today, im very happy with what I got here.

wow sure doesnt look like it will be ending anytime soon,would be nice to get the 2 inches or more..