CLOSED May Blog: Higher Temps, Higher Dew Points, Higher Irritability

anyone have any road closures due to flooding? let the folks know ok.

anyone have any road closures due to flooding? let the folks know ok.

StAugustineFL wrote:

I use MyRadar.  It's great!

Download the app, looks great.  And I can see I won’t be getting any yard work done today!

Big difference in Euro and GFS still.... Euro likes NOLA and GFS still liking the Florida Straights and now SC

Navy Model has been with a gulf florida landfall then up thru Jacksonville etc...none can be trusted now..something Has to form so they can lock on it then we'll see what they say huh.

FLood Warning
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
342 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...The National Weather Service in Tampa Fl has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers...

 Manatee River Near Myakka Head
 Horse Creek Near Arcadia

.Heavy rainfall over the last week and today has caused the Manatee
River near Myakka Head and the Horse Creek near Arcadia to rise to
flood stage. Additional rainfall is expected the remainder of today
and again on Monday which will result in minor flooding at some
locations.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC081-210842-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0002.180521T0000Z-180522T1200Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.180521T0000Z.180521T1800Z.180522T0600Z.NO/
342 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Tampa Fl has issued a

* Flood Warning for
 The Manatee River Near Myakka Head
* From this evening until Tuesday morning.
* At 3 PM Sunday the stage was...10.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and
 continue to rise to near 12.2 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.the
 river is expected to fall below flood stage by early Tuesday
 morning.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream
 flood. Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 12.1 feet
 on Jul 2 1974.

&&


              FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Mon    Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri

Manatee
Myakka Head  11.0  10.1  Sun 03 PM  12.1   10.5    8.6    7.0    6.3


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
2751 8224 2753 8224



$$

Thanks for the updates Largo

Great rain day here. 1.3", mostly slower types. Many overdue inside chores caught up on, plus a 2-hour window for a nice bike ride this afternoon.

Good luck down there BillsFan. Sounds a tad bit damp!

I'm guessing that the fire season is over, having never really gotten started.

Big project is starting this week. 4-days of solid 9-4 meetings. Breakfast and lunch provided, so no one can get away!

Memorial holiday weekend coming. Let's not forget why!

NWS MIAMI... Mon May 21 2018

...Flood Watch Broward County Until Noon...
...High Risk of Rip Currents Atlantic Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Flooding: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will once
again have the potential of causing flooding of streets and poorly
drained areas across southern Florida. Areas of recent heavy rainfall
and flooding, particularly metro Broward County, have the greatest
potential of significant flooding.

Rip currents: Southeast wind of 15 to 20 mph will lead to a high risk
of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will affect most of South
Florida and the adjacent waters today. Thunderstorms will be most
likely over the Gulf of Mexico waters, as well as east coast metro
areas and adjacent Atlantic waters during the morning to midday time
frame, and over interior and Gulf coast areas during the afternoon
and early evening.

Waterspouts: A few waterspouts are possible over the local waters
with the stronger showers and thunderstorms.

Wind: Gusts of 40 to 45 mph are possible with the stronger showers
and thunderstorms, most likely over the Gulf of Mexico waters, as
well as east coast metro areas and adjacent Atlantic waters during
the morning to midday time frame, and over interior and Gulf coast
areas during the afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
the threat of localized flooding through Wednesday, with the greatest
likelihood of heavier rainfall and potential flooding over the
interior and Gulf coast.

Another surge of deep tropical moisture will lead to an increase in
showers and thunderstorms affecting the region beginning Thursday or
Friday and lasting into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. Main
potential impacts at this time are flooding, gusty winds and locally
rough seas, and occasional lightning strikes.

The risk of rip currents will remain elevated for the Atlantic
beaches through Wednesday, then again by Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report flooding to the National Weather
Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Good Monday Morning folks!!..well street is semi-wet outside so must have been early morning showers...NWS has my area at 70% chance and says numerous showers and or storms today,we can sure use them here....well Blogs Coffee-Tea-Cocoa will be ready when you get here..enjoy...have a great day folks and drive carefully if water is covering the roadways ok.

folks I just want to mention this..just about ALL the Models predict some kind of tropical something in the Gulf sometime this coming weekend and almost all..bring it up into the northern gulf.

Morning All,
well here's the totals 6.62 for the month so far!! And 15.17 for the year. Normal rain fall in May for my area is 3.52 inches. Had some rain every day and it was raining when I left at 5am. No flooding in my area. Everything is green as green gets.
The tropical thing coming up so far just looks like a rain maker SO FAR! Will just have to wait and see.
Largo thanks for the coffee this morning.
Have a great day.
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
 well here's the totals 6.62 for the month so far!! And 15.17 for the year. Normal rain fall in May for my area is 3.52 inches. Had some rain every day and it was raining when I left at 5am. No flooding in my area. Everything is green as green gets.
The tropical thing coming up so far just looks like a rain maker SO FAR! Will just have to wait and see.
Largo thanks for the coffee this morning.
Have a great day.
John Z-hills

good morning John!! yes everything is so green here by me too!! yes the Coffee is great here in a rainy Monday!!

well we have a week to watch and wait and see what develops and where it really will go...personally i dont like the GFS track into or real close to SE Florida etc...but we all know..the models will be back and forth track wise over a week long wait huh

for myself im really watching to see IF..this goes to TS strength..thinking with all this rain Florida is getting, the grounds in many area's have to be water logged..we dont want any tree's coming down in high winds huh..

Aug... More on the way to your area whew..any flooding concerns by you??...............

Flash Flood Warning
FLC037-129-211345-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FF.W.0003.180521T1142Z-180521T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
742 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southwestern Wakulla County in Big Bend of Florida...
Northeastern Franklin County in Big Bend of Florida...

* Until 945 AM EDT.

* At 740 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Around 9 inches of rain has
fallen just south of Sopchoppy along Highway 319. Additional heavy
rainfall is expected through 945 AM EDT. Flash flooding is
expected.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Sopchoppy, Saint Teresa, Turkey Point, Bald Point, Panacea-Wakulla
Airport, Mcintyre, Sanborn, Tully, Panacea, Medart, Buckhorn,
Curtis Mill and Alligator Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3001 8458 3001 8455 3002 8456 3002 8457
3003 8459 3017 8466 3016 8437 2990 8431
2990 8453

$$

42-DVD

Good Monday morning to all. What a weekend of contrasts weather wise. Saturday was extremely hot, sunny and as calm wind wise as we have had in some time. Yesterday we finally got our first day of heavy rainfall during this extended wet period and ended up catching 1.75" in the gauge. That brings my May total to 3.3". This morning all the rain is inland of me, but we will see if it builds westward as the day progresses. I am starting to wonder if this wet period will just continue through the summer rainy season, or will we have a reversal back into some dry conditions once we get into June.

waterdipper wrote:Good Monday morning to all. What a weekend of contrasts weather wise. Saturday was extremely hot, sunny and as calm wind wise as we have had in some time. Yesterday we finally got our first day of heavy rainfall during this extended wet period and ended up catching 1.75"  in the gauge. That brings my May total to 3.3". This morning all the rain is inland of me, but we will see if it builds westward as the day progresses. I am starting to wonder if this wet period will just continue through the summer rainy season, or will we have a reversal back into some dry conditions once we get into June.

good Morning WD..glad you got some good rains there also......we on the gulf coast will have to be kinda alert this coming weekend and see where this Might be tropical something goes ok..northern Gulf so far except the GFS.

Precipitation 2.65 in.....is all I got here from april 21 to may 21 according a Largo recording station, now some here will laugh at that..they got that all in One day gee LOL

well the GFS model has stuck to its guns..south Florida then up to south Carolina landfall..

Morning blog. Ended yesterday w .07. The rain is chasing all the worms out of the ground! NHC has a yellow X in the Gulf this morning. Keeping cards close to the vest regarding a track. Grass is ready to mow again already and it’s so lush and green. We’ll have to wait and see for now...

PuppyToes wrote:Morning blog. Ended yesterday w .07. The rain is chasing all the worms out of the ground! NHC has a yellow X in the Gulf this morning. Keeping cards close to the vest regarding a track. Grass is ready to mow again already and it’s so lush and green. We’ll have to wait and see for now...

hiya PT yes everything is so green now. all we needed was a good rain or two.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
trough. While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
gradual development is possible later this week while the system
moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
and Florida over the next several days. For more information on
the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

Billsfan..alot going on down there huh...stay alert and safe thru all this ok.............................Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
820 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
220030-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
820 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

...Flood Watch Broward County Until Noon...
...High Risk of Rip Currents Atlantic Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Flooding: Numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will once again have the potential of causing flooding of streets and
poorly drained areas across southern Florida. Areas of recent heavy
rainfall and flooding, particularly metro Broward County, have the
greatest potential of significant flooding. A Flood Watch is in
effect until Noon for Broward County.


Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic
beaches.

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will affect most
of South Florida and the adjacent waters today. Thunderstorms will be
most likely over the Gulf of Mexico waters, as well as southeast
coast metro areas and adjacent Atlantic waters during the morning to
midday time frame, and over interior and Gulf coast areas during the
afternoon and early evening.

Waterspouts: A few waterspouts are possible over the local waters
with the stronger showers and thunderstorms.

Wind: Gusts of 40 to 45 mph are possible with the stronger showers
and thunderstorms, most likely over the Gulf of Mexico waters, as
well as east coast metro areas and adjacent Atlantic waters during
the morning to midday time frame, and over interior and Gulf coast
areas during the afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
the threat of localized flooding through Wednesday, with the greatest
likelihood of heavier rainfall and potential flooding over the
interior and Gulf coast.

Another surge of deep tropical moisture will lead to an increase in
showers and thunderstorms affecting the region beginning Thursday or
Friday and lasting into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. Main
potential impacts at this time are flooding, gusty winds and locally
rough seas, and occasional lightning strikes.

The risk of rip currents will remain elevated for the Atlantic
beaches through Wednesday, then again by Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report flooding to the National Weather
Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

oh no.......12Z GFS has changed......now WE on the gulf side may be dealing with something Tropical...stay tuned folks...................

Euro now goes into New Orleans area on may 27th...we'll see.still time for changes..

CMC model also into the new Orleans area,still time to wait,watch,and see what verifies huh....

well the rain has finally started here by me, coming down pretty good too..yessss

LargoFL wrote:oh no.......12Z GFS has changed......now WE on the gulf side may be dealing with something Tropical...stay tuned folks...................

And I have plans to spend Memorial Day weekend on the water.  Grrr.

Wow, northern Gulf a lot warmer than normal

Happy Monday y'all!

I finally have a rain total that is closer to what most of y'all have gotten. I dumped .78" out of the gauge at 7am this morning. It's been cloudy here all day and I just had a few sprinkles - hope I get a few more.

Thanks for all of the updates Largo!

StPeteFLwx wrote:

LargoFL wrote:oh no.......12Z GFS has changed......now WE on the gulf side may be dealing with something Tropical...stay tuned folks...................

And I have plans to spend Memorial Day weekend on the water.  Grrr.

hiya st Pete...yes even IF..this something starts to go to New Orleans we..on the gulf side of Florida will be on its dirty stormy side gee...i was sure hoping this was going up the atlantic side//well still 5-6 days away for any changes.

sangria wrote:Happy Monday y'all!

I finally have a rain total that is closer to what most of y'all have gotten.  I dumped .78" out of the gauge at 7am this morning.  It's been cloudy here all day and I just had a few sprinkles - hope I get a few more.  

Thanks for all of the updates Largo!  

Hiya San!!..yes we at last are getting some rain hope it goes on into the evening here.

StPeteFLwx wrote:Wow, northern Gulf a lot warmer than normal

yeah folks over in the NW gulf area's should really be watching this whatever..conditions over there may be much better than over here by us huh

now the NAVY model still takes it into ALA and gomey's area...................................

wow pouring down rain by me now San..should be up by you too soon

WooHoo!   It's a comin down now!  That radar is so purdy!!!

sangria wrote:WooHoo!   It's a comin down now!  That radar is so purdy!!!

wow San..a big congrats!!

well as of this afternoon, most if not all the models show something forming and heading into the gulf but..........untill something DOES form..its all model guesswork, including track and strength ok.

Wait, so now the X is going to Mexico?

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Wait, so now the X is going to Mexico?

im guessing that area is where the models "think" something is going to form there. nothing has so far..everyone is waiting to see IF something Does form lol. gee

probably around the Cancun mexico area, southern gulf