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CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
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sangria
severstorm
waterdipper
StAugustineFL
StPeteFLwx
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
folks IF your going to the Holiday Fireworks and/or the holiday outdoor events, please keep an eye to the skies for any storms etc..enjoy the holiday but also stay safe ok.
LargoFL- Posts : 10724
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Billsfan..stay alert and safe down there today...........................NWS MIAMI 806 AM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018
...Strong Thunderstorms Possible Across South Florida Through this Evening...
This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong, are
possible across all of South Florida through the day, with the best
chances in the afternoon and evening hours. The main hazard concerns
will be for small to moderate size hail, Gusty wind, lightning, and
urban street flooding.
Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible across all South
Florida waters today, especially with any boundary collisions that
may occur.
Wind: Storms today will be capable of producing wind gusts of 45 to
55 miles per hour.
Hail: The strongest storms today will be capable of producing small
to moderate sized hail.
Flooding: Flooding of roadways in low laying and poor drainage
areas is possible.
...Strong Thunderstorms Possible Across South Florida Through this Evening...
This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong, are
possible across all of South Florida through the day, with the best
chances in the afternoon and evening hours. The main hazard concerns
will be for small to moderate size hail, Gusty wind, lightning, and
urban street flooding.
Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible across all South
Florida waters today, especially with any boundary collisions that
may occur.
Wind: Storms today will be capable of producing wind gusts of 45 to
55 miles per hour.
Hail: The strongest storms today will be capable of producing small
to moderate sized hail.
Flooding: Flooding of roadways in low laying and poor drainage
areas is possible.
LargoFL- Posts : 10724
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
well just after 10 am Aug, i hope the roofer's showed up and are doing the roof for ya!!..it looks like showers have started to move onshore down in the Melbourne area also,looks like the rains will make it over here to the gulf side later today and evening.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
NWS MIAMI...SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, waterspouts,
funnel clouds, and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast
office in Miami.
For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.
$$
Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, waterspouts,
funnel clouds, and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast
office in Miami.
For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.
$$
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Awww... NHC decided to finally pull out the box of crayons.....
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a few hundred
miles to the south of Bermuda are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. The system is then forecast to interact with a frontal
system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
2. A small area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a concentrated area of showers several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some additional
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for development by this weekend when the system approaches
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Berg
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a few hundred
miles to the south of Bermuda are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. The system is then forecast to interact with a frontal
system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
2. A small area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a concentrated area of showers several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some additional
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for development by this weekend when the system approaches
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Berg
sangria- Admin
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Roofers showed up a little after 8 and finished around noon. Most of the work was done yesterday. I had to pull out the ladder and inspect the workmanship on my own before the GM showed up. Couple of punch list items for them to tend to but all-in-all I'm pleased. Next up are the gutters and screen enclosure.
StAugustineFL- Posts : 2231
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Yay Aug! Glad it's mostly done.
No rain at all for us.
Happy Independence day everyone!
No rain at all for us.
Happy Independence day everyone!
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Glad things went well Aug!
Bills, what was your June total?
I thought I was going to get hosed again this afternoon, but ended up in a last minute good spot! 1.02" in the gauge.
Bills, what was your June total?
I thought I was going to get hosed again this afternoon, but ended up in a last minute good spot! 1.02" in the gauge.
sangria- Admin
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
San- I have no clue. Lost track at my house. Not sure where to find it. And it varies so much even by a mile or two
Where should I check?
Where should I check?
BillsfaninSoFla- Posts : 1966
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Happy 4th! Poor dog, thunder and fireworks. Not a happy hound
StPeteFLwx- Posts : 351
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
My elderly cats are not pleased. Almost over, hopefully .
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
NWS Tampa..........503 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorm are expected to develop during
the mid to late afternoon hours and continue through the early
evening. The greatest coverage of storms will be over the
interior. Some of the storms could be strong with frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds.
...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Recent heavy rainfall has brought the water level up to above
flood stage on the Little Manatee River at Wimauma and the Manatee
River at Myakka Head. Residents living along rivers or faster
flowing streams should remain aware of water levels and be ready
to move to higher ground should flooding be observed.
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorm are expected to develop during
the mid to late afternoon hours and continue through the early
evening. The greatest coverage of storms will be over the
interior. Some of the storms could be strong with frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds.
...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Recent heavy rainfall has brought the water level up to above
flood stage on the Little Manatee River at Wimauma and the Manatee
River at Myakka Head. Residents living along rivers or faster
flowing streams should remain aware of water levels and be ready
to move to higher ground should flooding be observed.
LargoFL- Posts : 10724
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Good Morning Folks!!..well its the day after lol..geez they blew off ALOT of big boomers last night here..not a good night for the dogs,real glad the booming stopped around 11 pm.......Hey Aug im glad they finally came and did your roof..congrats!!..well some work today so i'll put the COFFEE-TEA-COCOA on for when you get here..enjoy and have a great day everyone!!
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
yes alot of thunder last evening but no rain here by me too...we'll see later today what happens huh.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
BillsfaninSoFla wrote:San- I have no clue. Lost track at my house. Not sure where to find it. And it varies so much even by a mile or two
Where should I check?
Hmmm.. I thought the CocoRahs site might have it but they only have daily totals. Aug has some pages that he pulls from, so maybe he'll have an idea. I use a cheapo rain gauge in the yard and just document it daily so that I know how much I've received.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Morning all,
Aug, Glad you have your roof done.
Heavy storms just to my south yesterday. I was on the fringes of it. Lots of lightning and thunder and .61 in the bucket in 15 mins. Our dog dosen't like the booms either under the bed most of the afternoon and night.
Have a great day
John Z-hills
Aug, Glad you have your roof done.
Heavy storms just to my south yesterday. I was on the fringes of it. Lots of lightning and thunder and .61 in the bucket in 15 mins. Our dog dosen't like the booms either under the bed most of the afternoon and night.
Have a great day
John Z-hills
severstorm- Posts : 331
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
morning John, yes not a good day for the dogs with all that Booming going on for sure,severstorm wrote:Morning all,
Aug, Glad you have your roof done.
Heavy storms just to my south yesterday. I was on the fringes of it. Lots of lightning and thunder and .61 in the bucket in 15 mins. Our dog dosen't like the booms either under the bed most of the afternoon and night.
Have a great day
John Z-hills
LargoFL- Posts : 10724
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
well we are back into our normal rainy season, with the possible afternoon/evening showers until we get something Tropical near by huh,
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
well we now have TD#2, right now just something to wait out and see what is happening with it in the days to come.............................................
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
They're pretty confident that it's going to fizzle.
Oh how I wish we could go back into time and "relive" Andrew 1992 in this day, with WU chat rooms etc.... One of the most respected meteorologists at the time down here, was big time trashing Andrew, (while it was a TD I think) saying it was never going to become anything, going to die a death in the Atlantic, ya de da etc.... Told everyone to chill out, go boating, do whatever because there is nothing to worry about. This was the Wednesday- Thursday before the storm (hit Monday at 5:00 am)...
He went on vacation, a fishing trip to the Bahamas or Caribbean- They had to fly a helicopter or something to get his butt back to the studio lol. Meanwhile, up and coming young weather guy (Bryan Norcross) was on a different network, telling everyone to take it very seriously.
I could only envision the "arguments" back and forth the WU members would have had with Andrew.
Oh how I wish we could go back into time and "relive" Andrew 1992 in this day, with WU chat rooms etc.... One of the most respected meteorologists at the time down here, was big time trashing Andrew, (while it was a TD I think) saying it was never going to become anything, going to die a death in the Atlantic, ya de da etc.... Told everyone to chill out, go boating, do whatever because there is nothing to worry about. This was the Wednesday- Thursday before the storm (hit Monday at 5:00 am)...
He went on vacation, a fishing trip to the Bahamas or Caribbean- They had to fly a helicopter or something to get his butt back to the studio lol. Meanwhile, up and coming young weather guy (Bryan Norcross) was on a different network, telling everyone to take it very seriously.
I could only envision the "arguments" back and forth the WU members would have had with Andrew.
BillsfaninSoFla- Posts : 1966
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
yes indeed, just something to watch in the coming daysBillsfaninSoFla wrote:They're pretty confident that it's going to fizzle.
Oh how I wish we could go back into time and "relive" Andrew 1992 in this day, with WU chat rooms etc.... One of the most respected meteorologists at the time down here, was big time trashing Andrew, (while it was a TD I think) saying it was never going to become anything, going to die a death in the Atlantic, ya de da etc.... Told everyone to chill out, go boating, do whatever because there is nothing to worry about. This was the Wednesday- Thursday before the storm (hit Monday at 5:00 am)...
He went on vacation, a fishing trip to the Bahamas or Caribbean- They had to fly a helicopter or something to get his butt back to the studio lol. Meanwhile, up and coming young weather guy (Bryan Norcross) was on a different network, telling everyone to take it very seriously.
I could only envision the "arguments" back and forth the WU members would have had with Andrew.
LargoFL- Posts : 10724
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
TD #2 has become TS Beryl in the Atlantic
LargoFL- Posts : 10724
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
lets all hope TS Beryl falls apart before going over P.R. they surely cant handle a storm now...maybe not even a tropical storm.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
well lets see late this weekend how Beryl is doing, now IF its still intact sat/sun we watch a lil more closely huh
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
BillsfaninSoFla wrote:They're pretty confident that it's going to fizzle.
Oh how I wish we could go back into time and "relive" Andrew 1992 in this day, with WU chat rooms etc.... One of the most respected meteorologists at the time down here, was big time trashing Andrew, (while it was a TD I think) saying it was never going to become anything, going to die a death in the Atlantic, ya de da etc.... Told everyone to chill out, go boating, do whatever because there is nothing to worry about. This was the Wednesday- Thursday before the storm (hit Monday at 5:00 am)...
He went on vacation, a fishing trip to the Bahamas or Caribbean- They had to fly a helicopter or something to get his butt back to the studio lol. Meanwhile, up and coming young weather guy (Bryan Norcross) was on a different network, telling everyone to take it very seriously.
I could only envision the "arguments" back and forth the WU members would have had with Andrew.
OH MY YES.....THOSE WHERE THE DAYS. I think there would be a lot of band people from all the fights now a days. I remember that storm very well.
John Z-hills
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Good afternoon. I don't think Beryl will be a concern with all the SAL in the ATL, the shear ahead of her, and being so early in the season. Stranger things have happened so we shall see! Always need to keep an eye open with a disturbance/system out there.
Whew, had a great time at a neighbors pool party yesterday but man am I paying for it today. That's all I've got to say about that.
Whew, had a great time at a neighbors pool party yesterday but man am I paying for it today. That's all I've got to say about that.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
sangria wrote:BillsfaninSoFla wrote:San- I have no clue. Lost track at my house. Not sure where to find it. And it varies so much even by a mile or two
Where should I check?
Hmmm.. I thought the CocoRahs site might have it but they only have daily totals. Aug has some pages that he pulls from, so maybe he'll have an idea. I use a cheapo rain gauge in the yard and just document it daily so that I know how much I've received.
Yes, CoCoRaHS is only dailies. Here's a closeup of the Broward County area. You can use the drop down on the date column to see what has fallen nearby per day. Gauges may/may not be close to you.
EDIT: that didn't work. Gotta click on FL then down to the county of choice to get to the data.
https://www.cocorahs.org/Maps/ViewMap.aspx?state=usa
There was a great NWS RFC precip site to filter upon over the past day, week, month, 90 days, etc.... but it has been replaced with a new link less customer friendly to me. It never gave a specific value but could at least see if you were, for example, in a 4-6" range or other values per their legend. Seems the old tools are being stripped away little by little. I miss by old satellites!
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
sangria wrote:BillsfaninSoFla wrote:San- I have no clue. Lost track at my house. Not sure where to find it. And it varies so much even by a mile or two
Where should I check?
Hmmm.. I thought the CocoRahs site might have it but they only have daily totals. Aug has some pages that he pulls from, so maybe he'll have an idea. I use a cheapo rain gauge in the yard and just document itdailywhen it crosses my mind to check whether it be next day or a week later so that I know how much I've received.
Fixed it for you!
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
StAugustineFL wrote:
Fixed it for you!
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BillsfaninSoFla- Posts : 1966
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Good FRIDAY Morning Folks and TGIF!!!..well its almost 5am here, dogs wanted to walk lol...just about solid overcast here right now..and wow did it rain hard and steady for over an hour over my area last night..over an inch to be sure..local met said whatever rains develop today will begin here on the gulf side then move eastward and inland ..we'll see how it goes..well Coffee-Tea-Cocoa will be ready when you get here grab a cup,relax and join in with us here and have a great day everyone!!
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
NWS...TAMPA...552 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorm are expected to develop during
the mid to late afternoon hours and continue through the early
evening. The greatest coverage of storms will be over and east of
the I75 corridor. Some of the storms could be strong with
frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds.
...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Recent heavy rainfall has brought the water level up to above
flood stage on the Little Manatee River at Wimauma...the Alafia
River at Lithia...and Horse Creek near Arcadia. Residents living
along rivers or faster flowing streams should remain aware of
water levels and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding
be observed.
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorm are expected to develop during
the mid to late afternoon hours and continue through the early
evening. The greatest coverage of storms will be over and east of
the I75 corridor. Some of the storms could be strong with
frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds.
...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Recent heavy rainfall has brought the water level up to above
flood stage on the Little Manatee River at Wimauma...the Alafia
River at Lithia...and Horse Creek near Arcadia. Residents living
along rivers or faster flowing streams should remain aware of
water levels and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding
be observed.
LargoFL- Posts : 10724
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
so How is it in Your area? any rain/storms around?
LargoFL- Posts : 10724
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Well summer rains every day over the last week.
Oldsmar homestead: over 4 inches.
Jax homestead: over 2.5 inches.
Something to watch in the N.Atl.
Seems like a normal July.
Message from work:
"You are currently listed as a first responder for DR should we have an occurrence that requires you to be relocated to restore infrastructure that was affected by a disaster. This could be as a result of as Hurricane, Tornado, Fire, Flood, etc. When notice of declaration has been given, within the next 2 to 4 hours, plan to depart to the designated location. We have 2 sites-Smyrna Georgia and Lake Mary, Florida. Depending on the type of disaster, the location will be determined at the time of declaration. Your hotel and food cost will be arranged for you. At this time, you will be responsible for transportation to the recovery site."
Had a great morning on Jax Beach yesterday. I really like the east coast beaches a lot more than the west cost. Better surf, cooler waters, younger crowd. Gulf coast wins on sunsets though.
Oldsmar homestead: over 4 inches.
Jax homestead: over 2.5 inches.
Something to watch in the N.Atl.
Seems like a normal July.
Message from work:
"You are currently listed as a first responder for DR should we have an occurrence that requires you to be relocated to restore infrastructure that was affected by a disaster. This could be as a result of as Hurricane, Tornado, Fire, Flood, etc. When notice of declaration has been given, within the next 2 to 4 hours, plan to depart to the designated location. We have 2 sites-Smyrna Georgia and Lake Mary, Florida. Depending on the type of disaster, the location will be determined at the time of declaration. Your hotel and food cost will be arranged for you. At this time, you will be responsible for transportation to the recovery site."
Had a great morning on Jax Beach yesterday. I really like the east coast beaches a lot more than the west cost. Better surf, cooler waters, younger crowd. Gulf coast wins on sunsets though.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1010 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following
rivers in Florida...
Little Manatee River At Wimauma
Horse Creek Near Arcadia
.Minor flooding is ongoing or expected begin shortly on several area
rivers due to days of very heavy rainfall.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
&&
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1010 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following
rivers in Florida...
Little Manatee River At Wimauma
Horse Creek Near Arcadia
.Minor flooding is ongoing or expected begin shortly on several area
rivers due to days of very heavy rainfall.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
&&
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due to the heavy rains last night around the tampa bay area, rivers are high..stay alert ok
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
NHC really doesn't know what to do with Beryl! Now the islands are expected to see impacts from Beryl instead of her dissipating. Larry Cosgrove mentioned yesterday that he could see possible impacts in Texas and he may just be right. Depending on where she tracks over Hispanolia, she could be ripped to shreds by the mountains or not - we've seen this play out before.
WTNT42 KNHC 061436
TCDAT2
Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018
Beryl is a compact hurricane that had a pinhole eye for a few
hours before more recently becoming cloud filled again. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.0/65 kt at 12Z, but
the Dvorak technique is constrained by width requirements of the
convective cloud tops. That may not be applicable in this case
given Beryl's extremely small size. By disregarding the width
constraints, TAFB was able to provide a data-T number of T4.5/77 kt.
As a compromise, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt.
Beryl has not gained much latitude and is still moving quickly
westward with a 12-hour motion estimate of 275/13 kt. Mid-level
ridging over the subtropical Atlantic is expected to steer Beryl on
a westward to west-northwestward course through the forecast period.
An acceleration is forecast to begin in 36-48 hours once Beryl
becomes situated to the south of the core of the mid-level
anticyclone. Some of the track models have already shown a
northward bias since the cyclone formed yesterday, and the updated
NHC track forecast is therefore south of the typically better-
performing models. This new forecast is not too different from the
previous NHC track and is also just south of the HCCA model and the
various model consensus aids.
Despite the SHIPS model diagnostics showing increasing shear in a
few days, global model fields show a well-defined upper-level
anticyclone following the system at least for the next 3 days.
Although Beryl's expected acceleration may contribute to some
increased shear, the SHIPS model is also probably calculating
deep-layer shear over too large an area to accurately capture the
shear isolated to the cyclone's scale. Given that, the NHC
intensity forecast is at or above nearly all of the guidance
through 48 hours, which is also higher than what we've been
depicting in previous forecasts. Needless to say, it's becoming
more likely that Beryl will maintain hurricane strength when it
reaches the Lesser Antilles between 48 and 72 hours. The cyclone is
also now likely to persist beyond the 72-hour forecast point, and a
96-hour point has therefore been added to the official forecast,
showing Beryl near or over Hispaniola by day 4. By that point,
either increased shear or the terrain of Hispaniola would likely
lead to dissipation. But we shall see.
Key Messages:
1. Beryl is now expected to be a hurricane when it moves through
the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some
islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are
increasing. However, Beryl is a very small hurricane, and it is too
early to determine exactly where those impacts will occur.
Hurricane watches could be needed for portions of the Lesser
Antilles as soon as tonight.
2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are
difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 10.7N 46.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 11.3N 47.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 12.2N 50.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 13.3N 53.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 14.2N 56.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 16.2N 64.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 18.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
WTNT42 KNHC 061436
TCDAT2
Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018
Beryl is a compact hurricane that had a pinhole eye for a few
hours before more recently becoming cloud filled again. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.0/65 kt at 12Z, but
the Dvorak technique is constrained by width requirements of the
convective cloud tops. That may not be applicable in this case
given Beryl's extremely small size. By disregarding the width
constraints, TAFB was able to provide a data-T number of T4.5/77 kt.
As a compromise, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt.
Beryl has not gained much latitude and is still moving quickly
westward with a 12-hour motion estimate of 275/13 kt. Mid-level
ridging over the subtropical Atlantic is expected to steer Beryl on
a westward to west-northwestward course through the forecast period.
An acceleration is forecast to begin in 36-48 hours once Beryl
becomes situated to the south of the core of the mid-level
anticyclone. Some of the track models have already shown a
northward bias since the cyclone formed yesterday, and the updated
NHC track forecast is therefore south of the typically better-
performing models. This new forecast is not too different from the
previous NHC track and is also just south of the HCCA model and the
various model consensus aids.
Despite the SHIPS model diagnostics showing increasing shear in a
few days, global model fields show a well-defined upper-level
anticyclone following the system at least for the next 3 days.
Although Beryl's expected acceleration may contribute to some
increased shear, the SHIPS model is also probably calculating
deep-layer shear over too large an area to accurately capture the
shear isolated to the cyclone's scale. Given that, the NHC
intensity forecast is at or above nearly all of the guidance
through 48 hours, which is also higher than what we've been
depicting in previous forecasts. Needless to say, it's becoming
more likely that Beryl will maintain hurricane strength when it
reaches the Lesser Antilles between 48 and 72 hours. The cyclone is
also now likely to persist beyond the 72-hour forecast point, and a
96-hour point has therefore been added to the official forecast,
showing Beryl near or over Hispaniola by day 4. By that point,
either increased shear or the terrain of Hispaniola would likely
lead to dissipation. But we shall see.
Key Messages:
1. Beryl is now expected to be a hurricane when it moves through
the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some
islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are
increasing. However, Beryl is a very small hurricane, and it is too
early to determine exactly where those impacts will occur.
Hurricane watches could be needed for portions of the Lesser
Antilles as soon as tonight.
2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are
difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 10.7N 46.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 11.3N 47.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 12.2N 50.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 13.3N 53.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 14.2N 56.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 16.2N 64.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 18.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
sangria- Admin
- Posts : 2345
Reputation : 55
Join date : 2012-07-16
Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
Please do not let it even brush Puerto Rico. We need to get them back up and running normally. And hopefully weed out the corrupt politicians.
BillsfaninSoFla- Posts : 1966
Reputation : 52
Join date : 2017-03-05
Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
BillsfaninSoFla wrote:They're pretty confident that it's going to fizzle.
Oh how I wish we could go back into time and "relive" Andrew 1992 in this day, with WU chat rooms etc.... One of the most respected meteorologists at the time down here, was big time trashing Andrew, (while it was a TD I think) saying it was never going to become anything, going to die a death in the Atlantic, ya de da etc.... Told everyone to chill out, go boating, do whatever because there is nothing to worry about. This was the Wednesday- Thursday before the storm (hit Monday at 5:00 am)...
He went on vacation, a fishing trip to the Bahamas or Caribbean- They had to fly a helicopter or something to get his butt back to the studio lol. Meanwhile, up and coming young weather guy (Bryan Norcross) was on a different network, telling everyone to take it very seriously.
I could only envision the "arguments" back and forth the WU members would have had with Andrew.
Ha, ha. He was probably downplaying it so he could go on his fishing trip. A friend of mine was right in the middle of Andrew. She was taking cover in the hallway that had the attic access. When the roof came off so did the access door and the winds started blowing rain and insulation and parts of the roof into the hallway. Five people and two dogs in the dark with all that stuff flying around, must have been hell.
StPeteFLwx- Posts : 351
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2017-03-17
Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
yes, we have some days to wait and see what Beryl will do, luckily so far anyway it doesnt seem to come to Florida..stay tuned
LargoFL- Posts : 10724
Reputation : 130
Join date : 2017-03-05
Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
000
WTNT32 KNHC 061435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018
...BRAZEN BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...NOW FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 46.5W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Beryl, as hurricane watches could be needed for some of the islands
by tonight.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 46.5 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and
continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend
and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to still be a hurricane
when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday.
Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean
Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough
until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central
Caribbean Sea.
Beryl is a compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
LargoFL- Posts : 10724
Reputation : 130
Join date : 2017-03-05
LargoFL- Posts : 10724
Reputation : 130
Join date : 2017-03-05
Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states
unless something happens to make this die off or change course, P,R. will be getting some of this hurricane gee
LargoFL- Posts : 10724
Reputation : 130
Join date : 2017-03-05
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