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CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

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Post by LargoFL Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:18 am

NHC is keeping 99L at 20% for now supposedly its going to enter an area hostile to development..we'll just have to keep an eye on it thru the days to come huh.
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Post by LargoFL Fri Aug 17, 2018 5:28 am

Good Friday Morning folks and TGIF!! well we had here a small but Loud Thunderstorm overnight'very early morning,gee woke me up grrr lol...it looks like we have a nice Hot day ahead with the usual possible TS's in the afternoon..its nice to be back to normal weather again huh..well enjoy..have a wonderful day!!
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Post by severstorm Fri Aug 17, 2018 6:27 am

LargoFL wrote:Good Friday Morning folks and TGIF!! well we had here a small but Loud Thunderstorm overnight'very early morning,gee woke me up grrr lol...it looks like we have a nice Hot day ahead with the usual possible TS's in the afternoon..its nice to be back to normal weather again huh..well enjoy..have a wonderful day!!

Morning All,
Had a outstanding thunderstorm last night around 8:30 and lasted for almost 2 hours. Lightning that never stopped and heavy rolling thunder. Love that stuff.
Had 1.07 in the bucket from yesterday and put me at 3.45 for the month.
Have a great day
John Z-hills

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Post by LargoFL Fri Aug 17, 2018 6:54 am

severstorm wrote:
LargoFL wrote:Good Friday Morning folks and TGIF!! well we had here a small but Loud Thunderstorm overnight'very early morning,gee woke me up grrr lol...it looks like we have a nice Hot day ahead with the usual possible TS's in the afternoon..its nice to be back to normal weather again huh..well enjoy..have a wonderful day!!

Morning All,
 Had a outstanding thunderstorm last night around 8:30 and lasted for almost 2 hours. Lightning that never stopped and heavy rolling thunder. Love that stuff.
Had 1.07 in the bucket from yesterday and put me at 3.45 for the month.
Have a great day
John Z-hills
wow a big congrats on the good rain up there john,yeah these thunderstorms sure are loud lol, man the booms shake my house sometimes lol..have a great weekend there john!!
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Post by LargoFL Fri Aug 17, 2018 6:55 am

maybe JR is on one of his trips?
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Post by LargoFL Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:48 am

anyone see anything tropical bothering Florida thru August?
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Post by LargoFL Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:50 am

NWS Tampa...526 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected today. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains...
and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day with the best
chance of rain during the afternoon and evening hours.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong gusty
winds...locally heavy rains... and frequent deadly lightning
strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

McKaughan
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Post by waterdipper Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:40 am

TGIF. Very hot and humid yesterday. Had storms around yesterday afternoon and into the late evening, but no rainfall made it to my place. The distant light show from the storm down to my SE that hit John in Zhills was impressive. I have now gone two days in a row without any rain, that leads me to believe today we will get a big afternoon storm. NWS says 40% chance later afternoon and early evening showers. We will see what happens.

Largo, on the tropical stuff I don't see any organized storm heading this way in August. This is just my uneducated guess, but I see the upper trough over the eastern US pretty much remaining around until October some time giving us and the rest of the eastern seaboard periodic rounds of heavy rainfall. This pattern has been in place since July and I think it will take a seasonal change to kick it out. This will help us out keeping tropical cyclones away, but will bring flooding rains to some folks up and down the eastern seaboard.

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Post by waterdipper Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:47 am

If any of you follow Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell Analytics, check out his Saturday summary from last weekend. It includes his Winter forecast for 2018/2019. Could be an interesting Winter if he is correct. The NWS says he is way off and it is going to be a warm winter.
Anyway, his video is at the bottom of this page:

https://www.weatherbell.com/

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Post by LargoFL Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:25 am

waterdipper wrote:TGIF. Very hot and humid yesterday. Had storms around yesterday afternoon and into the late evening, but no rainfall made it to my place. The distant light show from the storm down to my SE that hit John in Zhills was impressive. I have now gone two days in a row without any rain, that leads me to believe today we will get a big afternoon storm. NWS says 40% chance later afternoon and early evening showers. We will see what happens.

Largo, on the tropical stuff I don't see any organized storm heading this way in August. This is just my uneducated guess, but I see the upper trough over the eastern US pretty much remaining around until October some time giving us and the rest of the eastern seaboard periodic rounds of heavy rainfall. This pattern has been in place since July and I think it will take a seasonal change to kick it out. This will help us out keeping tropical cyclones away, but will bring flooding rains to some folks up and down the eastern seaboard.
yes im thinking the same WD..no storms thru August..so far anyway
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Post by LargoFL Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:25 am

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located several hundred miles northwest of the
Azores.

1. A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and significant development of this system is not
anticipated. This disturbance is moving westward at about 15 mph
and is forecast to move through the Windward Islands on Saturday,
where it could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Post by LargoFL Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:27 am

waterdipper wrote:If any of you follow Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell Analytics, check out his Saturday summary from last weekend. It includes his Winter forecast for 2018/2019. Could be an interesting Winter if he is correct. The NWS says he is way off and it is going to be a warm winter.
Anyway, his video is at the bottom of this page:

https://www.weatherbell.com/
nice site there WD
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Post by sangria Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:50 pm

Poor Bastardi.....  he always has fantastic forecasts that usually end up busting!

I got clipped by a cell to my south yesterday afternoon and had some good booming going on, ended up with .95" from it. It's been sunny and hot here today with minimal clouds. If anything pops, it will need to come from an outflow I'm thinking.
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Post by StAugustineFL Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:10 pm

I don't expect anything tropical soon either.  Fine by me.

Hope Bastardi is right WD

Congrats on the rain John/San.

I am literally on the cusp on a cumulonimbus cloud.  A very light sprinkle with dark skies looking west and clear as a bell east.  Here's a pic of the anvil overhead from 15 minutes or so ago.

CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida! - Page 7 Hw6zrVl
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Post by StAugustineFL Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:38 pm

Beh, I enjoy but hate storms like this.  I can see/hear/smell the rain falling a short distance away.  Zip here but 1.5 - 2" about 2 miles northwest with .5" amounts within arms reach.  Overall movement is away from my area as the seabreeze pushes west.  I need a san clipper.
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:15 pm

Maybe I'm getting old, LOL, but I don't remember such a dry summer .

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:20 pm

Welcome to my weather world Aug,, clouds so thick a mile away, but full sun at my house. Uggh

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Post by LargoFL Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:25 am

NWS MIAMI...403 AM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is anticipated at the
times of low tide today along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
over South Florida today, with a focus over the interior and Gulf
Coast regions this afternoon into early this evening. The main
threat with these storms will be lightning, heavy rain, and gusty
winds.

Wind: The strongest storms today will be capable of producing gusty
winds up to 50 mph.

Hail: The strongest storms today will be capable of producing small
hail.

Temperatures: Maximum heat index values are forecast to reach the
mid 100s over portions of South Florida this afternoon.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:28 am

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Post by LargoFL Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:07 am

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Post by LargoFL Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:08 am

Good Saturday morning Folks!!..well a nice HOT day ahead with just a small chance of a shower later this afternoon..a good day to do some work outside around the house...have a wonderful day everyone!!
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Post by LargoFL Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:16 am

Models are beginning to pick up on something tropical coming off Africa around the 28th or so,something to watch..CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida! - Page 7 Gem_z850_vort_eatl_41
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Post by LargoFL Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:21 pm

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:40 pm

Hey Largo and all.

Boy is it hot and humid today. Eight to ten more weeks. Hopefully that's all.
Have we seen JR yet??

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Post by LargoFL Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:20 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hey Largo and all.  

Boy is it hot and humid today.  Eight to ten more weeks.  Hopefully that's all.
Have we seen JR yet??
Hiya Billsfan, whew your so right its extremely HOT and HUMID lol...hurry up Fall.......no I have not seen JR around for quite awhile now
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:48 pm

Definitely stay inside weather!

Aug-have you heard from.JR?

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Post by LargoFL Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:57 am

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Post by LargoFL Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:03 am

Good Sunday morning everyone!..well suns full out here but a little while ago i heard a BOOM of thunder to my south, maybe St Pete got a shower down there? well hopefully one will find my area later on.........listen folks..i KNOW we all have been lulled to sleep with this BORING tropical season but..from about the 28th Aug thru the first week of Sept,the models wake the season up with storms beginning to form maybe..since its 2 weeks away, NOW might be the time to go over preps and supplies huh...no harm in being ready and prepared..just in case huh..we went tp Sam's club yesterday and restocked our bottled water etc..im ready...well have a wonderful day everyone!
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Post by LargoFL Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:06 am

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:33 pm

Hi everyone. I have plenty of water and paper supplies mostly due to a local store closing down. Everything 40-50 % off so cases of water just over $3.00 .I have ten. Plus paper supplies.
Only thing that makes me nervous is if generator works after repairs. And hubby can't start it with injury and I sure can't. Maybe could but it needs moved and I can't do that . Otherwise were ok! Storms stay away!

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Post by LargoFL Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:32 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi everyone.  I have plenty of water and paper supplies mostly due to a local store closing down. Everything 40-50 % off so cases of water just over $3.00 .I have ten. Plus paper supplies.  
Only thing that makes me nervous is if generator works after repairs. And hubby can't start it with injury and I sure can't. Maybe could but it needs moved and I can't do that . Otherwise were ok!   Storms stay away!
ok Billsfan, like you we are ready now also,we too have 10 cases of water etc..but hopefully we wont get any hurricanes this year huh..im wondering IF..the rerst of the folks here..are also ready and prepared or..are they waiting to see how things go weather wise before really stocking up?
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Post by LargoFL Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:33 am

NWS TAMPA...451 AM EDT Mon Aug 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected. Thunderstorms that develop will be
capable of producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains...
and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Daily thunderstorms are expected through the week. Thunderstorms
will be capable of producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy
rains... and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Wynn
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Post by LargoFL Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:37 am

Good Monday Morning Everyone!!..wow in MY area yesterday we got 3 rain storms..one had Very heavy rains that lasted well over an hour and a half and that heavy rain lasted the whole time..seems like every few hours another heavy rain and ALOT of lightning and thunder came..for MY area..we really needed all that rain.l it seems NWS Tampa is thinking more rain is likely today also..thats good...well have a great day and be safe on the roadways ok.
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Post by waterdipper Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:58 am

Good morning from Levy county. Hope all had a good weekend. Things are slowly drying out here. We haven't had any rain in 5 days now, which is a good thing. It has allowed the water table to drop some and the standing water that has been all over the flat woods is now drying up. I was also able to pump enough water out of my pond to get it back within its banks this weekend. Looks like we have a normal 30% chance of rain everyday this week, but the timing will vary from early week to late week. The sub tropical ridge is currently just about overhead and the wind is a light SSW flow which will bring a chance of late night and early morning storms. Later in the week we get back into the SE flow for late afternoon/evening storms.

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Post by LargoFL Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:01 am

waterdipper wrote:Good morning from Levy county. Hope all had a good weekend. Things are slowly drying out here. We haven't had any rain in 5 days now, which is a good thing. It has allowed the water table to drop some and the standing water that has been all over the flat woods is now drying up. I was also able to pump enough water out of my pond to get it back within its banks this weekend. Looks like we have a normal 30% chance of rain everyday this week, but the timing will vary from early week to late week. The sub tropical ridge is currently just about overhead and the wind is a light SSW flow which will bring a chance of late night and early morning storms. Later in the week we get back into the SE flow for late afternoon/evening storms.
morning WD..glad your drying out up there!!
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Post by LargoFL Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:03 am

JOHN..was this horrible accident yesterday near you?..got this off baynews9 omg............................ZEPHYRHILLS, Fla. — Three people were killed late Sunday afternoon in a crash on County Road 54 in Zephyrhills.

3 people killed in crash on County Road 54
Passengers seriously injured
Crash happened as a strong storm moved through the area
According to the Florida Highway Patrol, the crash happened on CR 54 at Berry Road just after 7 p.m.
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Post by LargoFL Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:04 am

well mets are saying 50-60% rain chances here thru today, hope no strong storms
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Post by LargoFL Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:07 am

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Post by StPeteFLwx Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:08 am

Very quiet in the Atlantic
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Post by LargoFL Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:26 am

good morning st pete..yes maybe we lucked out tropical storm wise.models are hinting at the first weeks of september,say..did you folks in Your area get a piece of those Big thunderstorms that came yesterday to Pinellas?
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Post by StPeteFLwx Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:37 am

LargoFL wrote:good morning st pete..yes maybe we lucked out tropical storm wise.models are hinting at the first weeks of september,say..did you folks in Your area get a piece of those Big thunderstorms that came yesterday to Pinellas?

We got a good downpour around noon. A lot of thunder late in the afternoon but mostly went around us.

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Post by LargoFL Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:45 am

StPeteFLwx wrote:
LargoFL wrote:good morning st pete..yes maybe we lucked out tropical storm wise.models are hinting at the first weeks of september,say..did you folks in Your area get a piece of those Big thunderstorms that came yesterday to Pinellas?

We got a good downpour around noon. A lot of thunder late in the afternoon but mostly went around us.
ok glad you did get some, man that noontime storm here was Mean lol..BOOMING Thunder and very heavy rain by my house and lasted more than an hour whew.
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Post by StAugustineFL Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:26 am

Hi all.  I was MIA over the weekend spending time with my mom, daughter, and grandson as it was my mom's last weekend here.  We drove down to Sanford, FL yesterday and stayed in a hotel overnight to make it easier for her to catch her 7:30 AM flight this morning.  She is deathly afraid of flying so I stayed with her the entire time until I saw the plane literally lift up in the skies after taking off down the runway.  Got home around 9:30, unpacked, then ran to the bank to take care of some business.  Now I have the rest of the day to unwind and do nothing.

Saw on radar there was a good storm here around 9pm last night.  Rain gauge had 1.09" when I dumped it a little earlier.  Up to 4.92" for the month.

Hope all are well.  Bills - no, haven't heard from JR.


Last edited by StAugustineFL on Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:30 am; edited 1 time in total
StAugustineFL
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Post by StAugustineFL Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:28 am

Largo - I don't really buy supplies unless there's strong model agreement on something possibly spinning up 10 days or so in the future. Still leaves plenty of time to beat the last minute rush.

Bills - water down there was 50% off and STILL $3/case? That seems a bit steep. Not sure if you are brand specific or not but to me water is water. I can buy a case at dollar general at normal price for under $3 much less a sale.
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Post by JRnOldsmar Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:40 am

Good morning, All. Just a quick flyby as my morning extra work stuff got cancelled. Sorry for the extended absence, but I'm pulling double duty on the work front, which isn't leaving a lot to spare. Hoping to get some kind of break after August. Will be in Jax for the Labor Day weekend -- Orlando this weekend to help my daughter move.

I haven't paid a lot of attention to the weather, since it's like a rather normal August so far for me. I know that I've received more that 2" a week for the last several weeks, and it has been hot.

Best wishes to all, and I will try to catch up and get back in the game soon.
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Post by StAugustineFL Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:25 pm

JR in da house.  Good to see you check in and I'll try to catch up with you over Labor Day this go-around (your and/or my time permitting) since I missed the last trip up.
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Post by JRnOldsmar Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:36 pm

Sorry to read about your Tabby, Bills. These things can be rough, especially with a life-long companion. Best wishes to your daughter.
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Post by JRnOldsmar Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:50 pm

Wow. Nearby pws's say I've received ~13" of rain from mid-July. Not quite up to WD's standards, but I'll take it. I know that we've had some of the best t-storms of the year recently.
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Post by JRnOldsmar Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:15 pm

Hey WD.
On one of my trips to/from Jax, I'm planning on detouring to Cedar Key.
So what is the best casual seafood place? Best beer on-tap?
Thanks. Smile
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Post by waterdipper Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:34 pm

JRnOldsmar wrote:Hey WD.  
On one of my trips to/from Jax, I'm planning on detouring to Cedar Key.
So what is the best casual seafood place?  Best beer on-tap?
Thanks.  Smile  

JR, I am a bit of a seafood snob, as I generally catch my own or know people who can get me fresh FL seafood for reasonable. That being said, there are a couple of good places that serve some good seafood in Cedar Key, but you generally have to order what is caught/produced here locally in season if you want something fresh that didn't come from the Sysco truck. Local little neck clams, oysters, blue crabs, stone crabs (in season) and mullet will all be local and fresh. Everything else probably came from elsewhere. As far as beer, I drink cheap American beer so I am no expert, sorry. I actually prefer any variety of FREE BEER.


Here are the restaurants I would recommend:
1. Annie's Café-currently closed until October and only open for lunch. They have a great mullet dinner and an awesome softshell crab when they have them. Also the best cheeseburger around for non-seafood eaters.
2. Island Place- Higher end place, but they don't normallly care how you are dressed as they are low key people. Excellent everything, especially the crab bisque. They also grow their own littleneck clams they serve.
3. Steamer's bar and Grill- All around decent place, this is typically where I take my family as my kids go to school with the owner's son. The oysters are local and tastey and the Clams Diablo (clams in a red sauce served with pasta) is good as well. My son likes the blacked mahi, but it is trucked in from somewhere. I really haven't had anything here that I didn't like, just nothing that I thought was better than I or my wife make at home.

On a side note, Cedar Key is a very slow, laid back kind of place. Many people who come here don't realize that and leave restaurants upset how slow the service and the wait time was for their food. Keep this in mind and enjoy the views and company if you have any and you should enjoy your visit.

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