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CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:25 am

NWS Tampa...453 AM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across west
central and southwest Florida this afternoon. Thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing strong gusty winds of 40 to
50 mph...locally heavy rain...and frequent deadly lightning
strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Flooding is occurring on several rivers across the region, and
any additional heavy rain will exacerbate the flooding over the
next several days. Residents living along rivers or faster flowing
streams should remain aware of water levels and be ready to move
to higher ground should conditions warrant.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:28 am

CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida! - Page 13 Two_atl_5d0
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:33 am

Good Saturday Morning Folks!!..well dogs walked and for the first time in awhile i can see the moon and the early morning dark sky is clear,but we all know the clouds and rain will be coming once again later huh...Billsfan and south Florida folks should be getting into the rain action now with that wave and into next week also as it moves into the gulf....well enjoy the LONG weekend everyone..have a great day!!
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Post by StAugustineFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:07 am

Morning.  The overnight Euro keeps Florence on a southern route.  The GFS and CMC don't show this solution.  We'll see what future runs say but I don't like this one, lol.

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Post by StAugustineFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:32 am

Florence discussion is interesting.

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

A recent SSMIS microwave pass has revealed that the cyclone has
become much better organized with more pronounced convective
banding. Satellite intensity estimates are wide ranging, spanning
from T1.5/25 kt from SAB to T3.4/53 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. Since
the numbers overall have increased, and the structure has improved,
the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, in closest agreement to
the TAFB estimate, but this could be conservative. This makes the
depression Tropical Storm Florence, the sixth named storm of the
season.

Florence is moving west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt, and should
maintain this motion for the next 48 hours while traveling along the
southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. After 48 hours, the
storm is expected to reach a break in the ridge, causing it to slow
down and turn northwestward by day 5. The biggest change noted
among the track models on this cycle was a westward shift in the
overall guidance envelope. The European model, in particular, swung
significantly to the left, showing a weaker Florence not feeling the
break in the ridge quite as much. I'd like to see this trend
continue before making a significant change to the forecast, so for
now the updated NHC track prediction is only nudged westward. That
said, the models appear to be trending away from a definitive
recurvature scenario.


The environment is mixed with positives and negatives for Florence's
strengthening. For the first 3 days, vertical shear over Florence
should be quite low, but the cyclone will also be moving through a
less-than-ideal thermodynamic environment with marginal sea surface
temperatures and decreasing mid-level moisture. After 3 days, the
thermodynamic environment should begin to improve, but then the
shear is forecast to strengthen. These conflicting signals point to
only gradual strengthening, and the suite of intensity models aren't
too far off from one another, nor from the previous NHC forecast.
For that reason, no significant changes were made in this forecast
package.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.5N 26.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.0N 28.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.7N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 16.4N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 17.1N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 18.7N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 21.0N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:42 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  The overnight Euro keeps Florence on a southern route.  The GFS and CMC don't show this solution.  We'll see what future runs say but I don't like this one, lol.

CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida! - Page 13 CNDvA52
Thanks Aug..we'll really have to watch and wait for these systems alright
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:43 am

NWS Melbourne...DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast Sunday, with
the highest coverage expected over the interior. A tropical wave
is forecast to increase coverage of showers and storms Monday. The
main storm threats will continue to be lightning strikes and
gusty winds. Locally heavy downpours will also produce ponding of
water on roadways and in other poorly drained areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

$$

Lascody
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:50 am

lets keep a good eye on this wave huh...................................Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Florence, located about a couple of hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
numerous showers and thunderstorms from Hispaniola northward across
the Turks and Caicos Islands. This activity is forecast to spread
west-northwestward, enhancing rainfall across Hispaniola, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas this weekend, and across Florida
and the northern Gulf of Mexico coast by early next week. Strong
upper-level winds will likely prevent significant development of
this system during the next couple of days, but environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for a
surface low pressure area to form when the disturbance moves across
the Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Avila
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Post by sangria Sat Sep 01, 2018 10:26 am

Happy Saturday all and hope everyone gets to enjoy a nice 3 day weekend to celebrate Labor Day!

That Euro run is interesting compared to GFS and Canadian. Looks like Euro keeps Florence very weak and that ridge really builds on this run. The GFS and Canadian have stronger systems and not as strong of a ridge to the north.

I don't normally wish for early strengthening but in this case it would be in Florida's best interest for Florence to beef up rapidly. She would have a better shot at a further north solution.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:23 pm

sangria wrote:Happy Saturday all and hope everyone gets to enjoy a nice 3 day weekend to celebrate Labor Day!

That Euro run is interesting compared to GFS and Canadian.  Looks like Euro keeps Florence very weak and that ridge really builds on this run.   The GFS and Canadian have stronger systems and not as strong of a ridge to the north.  

I don't normally wish for early strengthening but in this case it would be in Florida's best interest for Florence to beef up rapidly.  She would have a better shot at a further north solution.
yes indeed we dont need her coming here.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:23 pm

CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida! - Page 13 1535820541
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:33 pm

Billsfan...Nam model has the Wave inland over south Florida..oh oh...........................................CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida! - Page 13 Namconus_mslp_uv850_us_43
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:36 pm

CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida! - Page 13 Wrf-arw_ref_frzn_us_48
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:44 pm


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
928 AM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.UPDATE...Complex pattern across the Gulf of Mexico-Florida
peninsula- western Atlantic this morning. The most dominant
feature remains the deep layer ridge whose axis stretches across
the southeastern US to our north. Moving along the south side of
this ridge are two tropical disturbances; one along the northern
Gulf coast and the other moving through Hispaniola. We will be in
between these two features today, but remain under the influence
of a broad double barreled upper level low just to our east across
the Bahamas. This upper level low is expected to drift further
west today, which is evident by the slight cooling on this
morning`s sounding.

The convective evolution for today looks similar to the past two
days. Most the region is currently in a relative lull after the
nocturnal convective maximum that drove earlier activity, that
will likely last through late morning. Daytime heating, diffuse
east coast seabreeze, and outflows from ongoing activity across
the local waters will bring additional development around midday
through the afternoon hours. Easterly flow will continue to factor
most of this across the western interior and Gulf coast, but at
least isolated Atlantic showers and storms moving into the east
coast will remain possible.

Convective parameters aren`t terribly impressive for a significant
strong/severe storm risk. However, can`t discount temperatures
aloft that are almost record low for this time of year. A few
stronger storms are possible, with gusty winds/small hail being
the main concern, mostly likely along the Gulf coast.

&&
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:48 pm

well with this Wave coming towards Labor Day..what Im watching out for is the 4-5 inches of rain possible in one day all around the gulf...with our ground still wet..could be some Flooding concerns for sure
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:49 pm

Uggh Largo! Thankfully my area should be able to tolerate heavy rains, we’ve been on the dry side compared to everyone else.
Still not positive that generator is in working order.

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Post by sangria Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:29 pm

If that wave clips you Bills, that would be great! A nice day of decent rainfall is needed in your area.
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Post by sangria Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:05 pm

Levi vid.....

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:36 pm

Love Levi’s videos!

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:37 pm

And please everyone if you’ll share Levi’s videos daily, I can only find old ones when I look. And I’ve had and exhausting week with my Mom in hospital and both hubby and daughter are sick, and while I’m doing my best to ward it off, I fear it might be winning.

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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:46 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:And  please everyone if you’ll share Levi’s videos daily, I can only find old ones when I look. And I’ve had and exhausting week with my Mom in hospital and both hubby and daughter are sick, and while I’m doing my best to ward it off,  I fear it might be winning.
awww gee Billsfan i hope things at home get better for the family...we'll try to keep the blog up to date with the weather etc.......you have some wet-windy 2 -3 days coming starting today Sunday.....................................DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

There is a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches
Sunday and Monday.

Sunday through Tuesday: A strong tropical disturbance is expected to
move from the Bahamas and across the Florida peninsula into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday night through Tuesday morning.
Conditions remain unfavorable for further tropical development over
the next two days as it affects South Florida. Regardless of
development, this disturbance is expected to bring periods of squally
weather across the area from at least late Sunday through Tuesday.
Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible, which may lead to
localized flooding across portions of South Florida. In addition,
isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Baxter
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 4:54 am

Billsfan..NWS Miami..special weather announcement...sat 4:30pm.................HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR LABOR DAY...

A strong tropical wave over the southern Bahamas will be moving
west northwest and through South Florida on Labor Day. This strong
wave will bring deep moisture to the area leading to the
potential of heavy rainfall across South Florida on Labor Day.
The east coast metropolitan areas appear to be at higher risk for
the heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
expected across South Florida at this time with the higher amounts
over the eastern areas. Any thunderstorms that do train over the
region will lead to much higher amounts, and this will be where
flooding is mostly likely to occur.

This heavy rainfall potential for Labor Day will be closely
watched, and if current trends hold a Flood Watch may need to be
considered for at least parts of South Florida for Sunday Night
into Labor Day.

$$

Baxter/Konarik
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 4:56 am

NWS Tampa...447 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across west
central and southwest Florida this afternoon. Thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing strong gusty winds of 40 to
50 mph...locally heavy rain...and frequent deadly lightning
strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Flooding is occurring on several rivers across the region, and
any additional heavy rain will exacerbate the flooding over the
next several days. Residents living along rivers or faster flowing
streams should remain aware of water levels and be ready to move
to higher ground should conditions warrant.
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 4:58 am

NWS Miami...433 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THROUGH MONDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic beaches.

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will affect most
of South Florida. Coverage will gradually increase from the late
morning through the afternoon hours. Main threats will be cloud to
ground lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours.

Wind: The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts
of 45 mph or higher.

Flooding: localized flooding is possible today with the heaviest
downpours, mainly over the Atlantic coast metro areas. Expect ponding
of water in poorly drained areas.



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

The high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches continues
through Monday.

Monday through Tuesday: a strong tropical wave is expected to move
across the southern portions of the Florida peninsula and into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Conditions remain unfavorable for
further tropical development over the next two days. Regardless of
development, this wave is expected to bring periods of squally weather
across the area Monday and Tuesday. Periods of heavy rainfall will
be possible, which may lead to localized flooding across portions of
South Florida. In addition, isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are
possible, along with periods of rough seas over the coastal waters.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:08 am

Good Saturday Morning folks!!..well it looks like a kinda big rain event may begin later today for southern florida, and especially tomorrow on till this wave passes into the gulf..it could be a 2-3 day event..well some area's down there could really use this heavy rainfall..well hope no one gets flooded out of their homes.....and for the rest of us?..have you liked this last weeks weather? good..it continues lol..........have a great day everyone.
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:12 am

and THIS...is way out in time BUT..we always have to watch to see if this will verify, time to prepare huh...CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida! - Page 13 Gfs_mslp_uv850_us_53
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:31 am

whoa..this may put a dent in our Labor Day BBQ's huh.....................................................CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida! - Page 13 Fl_rain_tomorrow
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:45 am

Thank you Largo!!

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Post by StAugustineFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:12 am

Morning. Hope your mom gets to feeling better soon bills along with hubby, daughter, and yourself.

On the whole August was an average month rain-wise up here with 6.5" but it's been relatively dry the past 11 days with only .71". Hoping the rain chances in the coming days verify. September on average is the wettest month of the year in this area.
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:18 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thank you Largo!!
ok my friend..we'll keep up on the weather for you folks.
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:19 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  Hope your mom gets to feeling better soon bills along with hubby, daughter, and yourself.

On the whole August was an average month rain-wise up here with 6.5" but it's been relatively dry the past 11 days with only .71".  Hoping the rain chances in the coming days verify.  September on average is the wettest month of the year in this area.
good morning Aug!! hope some of the rain reaches your area too.
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:20 am

CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida! - Page 13 1535886481
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:22 am

they keep saying..wont amount to much.......hello..80%?.....................................ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits
of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little,
if any, development is expected during that time due to strong
upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level
wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more
conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and
central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance
will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from
your local weather forecast office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:37 am

CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida! - Page 13 Gfs_mslp_uv850_us_53
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:39 am

CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida! - Page 13 AMX_loop
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:47 am

lets see if i can post Levi's video from yesterday..............................https://youtu.be/-5aXu2Aw7LQ
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Post by StAugustineFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:48 am

Gomey's area looks to get alot of rain from whatever becomes of the t-wave once it gets into the Gulf.

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Post by StAugustineFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:57 am

The eastern Pacific is cranking out some storms this year.  15 already.

The link worked Largo.  If you want the vid to visually appear in the comments section like san posted yesterday copy the YouTube link then come to our comments section. click "YouTube" above where you would type your text, paste the link in the  URL field, then send.

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Post by sangria Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:08 am

LargoFL wrote:.....and for the rest of us?..have you liked this last weeks weather? good..it continues lol..........

Bring it on! I've enjoyed the last two weeks in my neck of the woods!
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:10 am

StAugustineFL wrote:The eastern Pacific is cranking out some storms this year.  15 already.

The link worked Largo.  If you want the vid to visually appear in the comments section like san posted yesterday copy the YouTube link then come to our comments section. click "YouTube" above where you would type your text, paste the link in the  URL field, then send.

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ok thanks AUG.
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Post by sangria Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:12 am

No real changes in models overnight.  We'll have to wait and see how strong/weak Florence gets before having a good idea of where she will go.

Looks like some diversion between models also for the wave that will move into the GOM.  Regardless, I hope it stays far enough east to bring the west coast of FL more rain!!!

Snippet from Tampa/Ruskin NHC this morning:

"This wave will move quickly west
northwest across south Florida during Monday and well out
into the Gulf of Mexico Monday night. Deep tropical moisture
associated with the wave will overspread the region during
Monday leading to numerous to widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms spreading northwest during the day.
Some of the rainfall could be locally heavy, but with the
rather quick movement of the system a Flood Watch is not
expected to be needed. Winds will also increase with a
breezy easterly flow setting up late tonight into early
Tuesday. Abundant moisture will continue across the area
Monday night and Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms continuing."
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:12 am

IM wondering if we around tampa Bay area will get in on that possible 2-4 inches of rain?
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Post by StAugustineFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:45 am

Invest 91L tagged for the t-wave.

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Post by sangria Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:53 am

LargoFL wrote:IM wondering if we around tampa Bay area will get in on that possible 2-4 inches of rain?

GFS Total Rainfall Forecast through Wednesday morning - by this time, any impacts from the wave should be over for most of FL (notwithstanding North FL/Panhandle)....

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Post by sangria Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:41 am

The wave is looking pretty decent....

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Post by StAugustineFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:01 am

Largo - there's been a child abduction in Pinellas.  Little boy last seen in Largo.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/florida-amber-alert-for-missing-2-year-old
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Post by StAugustineFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:01 am

This is why the weather world frustrates me (or perhaps I'm an idiot).  Anyone have thoughts?  See the bold highlights.  This is for the same reporting station (Jax Airport).

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1252 PM EDT SAT SEPT 1 2018

...AUGUST 2018 CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JACKSONVILLE...

...STORMIEST SUMMER FOR JACKSONVILLE ON RECORD...

SUMMARY...August continued a stormy pattern similar to the previous
summer months with 22 days of thunderstorms reported at Jacksonville
International Airport.
The average for August is 15 days. Despite
the numerous thunderstorms, precipitation totals were basically
average. There were no tropical systems in the region to influence
the local weather but the atmosphere remained tropical enough to
keep thunderstorms in the forecast from week to week. With August
included, the total thunderstorm days for the summer was 69. This
breaks the old record of 63 set in 1927. The average is 47. Similar
to the month of August, total precipitation for the summer was not
all that impressive with totals only 6.51 inches above normal which
ranks 16th all time. This is 5.5 inches lower than the summer of
2017, which ranked 5th all time. So while most of the area saw a wet
and stormy summer, most areas received near average precipitation
plus or minus a few inches. Nevertheless, any tropical systems
during the month of September that bring a heavy rain threat will
likely lead to widespread flooding issues.

AT JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

TEMPERATURES...The average temperature for August was 82.4 degrees
which is 0.6 degrees above normal for Jacksonville International
Airport. The average daily high was 91.4 degrees and the average
daily low was 73.4 degrees. The maximum temperature for the month
was 97 degrees which occurred on the 8th of the month. The minimum
temperature for the month was 72 degrees which occurred on the 30th
and 31st. There were no record high maximum or minimum temperatures
recorded for the month. There were 26 days in August that had a high
temperature of 90 degrees or higher. There were 0 days during August
in which temperatures were at or below freezing.

RAINFALL...There were 13 days of measurable rainfall in August at
Jacksonville International Airport
. Monthly rainfall totaled 7.68
inches which is 0.88 inches above normal. The greatest 24 hour total
in August was 1.86 inches on the 18th. There were no daily
precipitation records during the month.
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Post by StAugustineFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:05 am

I'm going to email the NWS as I'm really interested to hear what they have to say about this.
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:10 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Largo - there's been a child abduction in Pinellas.  Little boy last seen in Largo.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/florida-amber-alert-for-missing-2-year-old
OMG thats in MY neighborhood ..thanks for this
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Post by LargoFL Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:13 am

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