CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by sangria on Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:22 am

Ah Gomey.... you are falling behind on rainfall compared to last year, so you need ole Gordo!!
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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:41 am

Good luck Gome! Gordy is out of my reach so I can’t smack him for you. Hopefully he continues to move quickly!


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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by gomexwx on Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:46 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good luck Gome!  Gordy is out of my reach so I can’t smsck him for you. Hopefully he continues to move quickly!
...LOL He is zooming right along.

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:56 am

Gome- I have family in Foley. Is that close to you?

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by gomexwx on Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:00 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Gome- I have family in Foley.  Is that close to you?
That would be across the Bay...From me about 50 miles. I am about 6 miles from the Ms. ,Al. line.

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by sangria on Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:01 am

11am Advisory

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/031455.shtml


618
WTNT42 KNHC 031455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida,
along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that
Gordon has continued to become organized this morning. The center
of the cyclone passed over Key Largo between 1100-1200 UTC,
producing a west wind in Islamorada and also at an observing site
in Florida Bay. Doppler velocity data and surface observations
support an intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating
Gordon.

The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The latest model
guidance has shifted slightly to the right, but this is likely due
to the more northerly initial position. Other than that, the models
remain tightly packed and agree on a general west-northwestward to
northwestward motion for the next 48 hours right up until landfall
as the strong ridge to the north of Gordon moves little. The new NHC
forecast track was adjusted a little to the right of the previous
advisory track, but not as far to the east as some of the model
guidance out of respect for the reliable ECMWF deterministic run,
which is located on the southern edge of the guidance and shows
landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River, a solution that is
also supported by the new 0600Z short-range UKMET model run.


Gordon's appearance in both radar and satellite imagery has
continued to improve over the past several hours. The GFS- and
ECMWF-based SHIPS models indicate that westerly to northwesterly
vertical wind shear of about 10 kt is allegedly affecting Gordon,
but there are no indications of that in satellite imagery that I
can see. The cirrus outflow has continued to expand in all
quadrants, so the analyzed westerly shear is likely an artifact of
the small circulation being positioned so close to the strong trough
located its west. Since Gordon will be moving over sea-surface
temperatures near 30 deg C during the next 36-48 hours, and be near
or underneath an upper-level anticyclone, steady strengthening seems
likely. It is possible that Gordon could peak as a Category 1
hurricane after 36 hours, just before landfall occurs. For that
reason, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the
central Gulf Coast.
The new intensity forecast is above the previous
advisory, and is close to a blend of the consensus models
HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions
to portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for these areas.

2. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge to
portions of the central Gulf Coast and a Storm Surge Warning has
been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi-
Alabama border. Residents in these areas should listen to advice
from their local officials and all preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
portions of the central Gulf Coast. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach those areas late Tuesday, with hurricane
conditions possible in the watch area.

4. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8
inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 25.3N 81.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 26.5N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 28.1N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 29.9N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 31.3N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1200Z 33.9N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1200Z 34.8N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/1200Z 37.6N 95.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by sangria on Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:04 am

You're dirty Gomey!

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:35 am

I’m rather surprised that the name Gordon wasn’t retired after the Gordon storm of 1994. There were over 1,100 deaths related to him. What a storm to watch! The WU chat room would’ve been overwhelmed lol

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:07 pm

Seems to be winding down already in my area.

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:36 pm


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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:47 pm


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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:18 pm

Nice ring of convection wrapping around the center.  Looks to be just south of Marco Island. Possible eye forming?

Static loop

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:37 pm

wow heavy overhead cloud cover and wind is picking up here by me now.................................Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
124 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

FLZ050-151-031815-
Coastal Hillsborough-Pinellas-
124 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...

At 123 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located near Downtown Saint
Petersburg, moving west at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tampa, Largo, Pinellas Park, Seminole, Downtown Saint Petersburg,
Saint Petersburg, St. Petersburg, St. Pete Beach, Bay Pines, Tierra
Verde, Macdill Air Force Base, Gandy, West And East Lealman,
Ridgecrest, South Highpoint, Gulfport, Treasure Island, Kenneth City,
South Pasadena and Madeira Beach.

LAT...LON 2789 8252 2766 8252 2766 8282 2772 8281
2782 8289 2790 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 098DEG 31KT 2777 8259

$$

TBW

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:39 pm


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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:41 pm

so far no rain by me but on radar its coming

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:43 pm


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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:45 pm

OK..the first thunder boomer of the day here..looks like my turn to join in the fun storm times.

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:50 pm

nws Melbourne...
.NOW...
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across east central
Florida early this afternoon with move west northwest at 30 to 35
mph. Gusty squalls to 40 to 50 mph, torrential downpours, and
cloud to ground lightning strikes will accompany stronger storms.
Additional showers and storms will also move onshore the Space and
Treasure coast with heavy rain and gusty winds moving onshore
from the Atlantic. Breezy winds, rough surf and and a moderate
risk of rip currents can also be expected along the beaches into
late afternoon.

$$

15

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:58 pm


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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by gomexwx on Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:22 pm

Seems a little north of the forecast,I look for a shift to the East next advisory..

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:25 pm

I agree Gome. Seems more northerly/easterly. Hope not!

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by gomexwx on Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:47 pm

The Gulf is a funky place...weather happens quick and with no reason because it is a body of water surrounded by land...With that in mind Land heats and cools faster than water because it is more dense. Meaning hot air can explode upward over land and create eddy's of currents that expand outward over the Gulf...Like the short term unseen winds that moved Charlie inland by surprise...I never trust a storm in the gulf....

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:52 pm

Great explanation Gome!!

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:55 pm

well storms all around and so far no rain for me LOL...............................................................

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:57 pm

gomexwx wrote:Seems a little north of the forecast,I look for a shift to the East next advisory..

The South Florida Water Management weather radar with the forecast track line shows the "north of forecast" nicely. Hell, maybe 15 miles north.

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:02 pm

AUG..I hope Florence changes track, but EURO model Has been pretty good track wise lately......

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:04 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:
gomexwx wrote:Seems a little north of the forecast,I look for a shift to the East next advisory..

The South Florida Water Management weather radar with the forecast track line shows the "north of forecast" nicely.  Hell, maybe 15 miles north.  

it does seem like the "eye" is moving Up the coastline huh

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by sangria on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:12 pm

In agreement here... I noticed that with the 2pm update... it is very evident on here as well.

Forecast track Archive since Advisory 1
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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:15 pm

I wonder just how far Up the coast it will come tonight,like gome i dont ever trust gulf tropical systems,fulll of surprises they are,good thing my dogs get me up real early mornings, dont want to get caught off guard if it comes up or close to Tampa bay

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:25 pm

How is everyone? Largo, JR, WD, San, PT?

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:26 pm

overnight and early tomorrow morning could be..very interesting around here......................................

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:29 pm


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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:31 pm

JENNY...stay alert and safe up there ok.....................................................Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
301 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

FLC079-123-031930-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0249.000000T0000Z-180903T1930Z/
Taylor FL-Madison FL-
301 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TAYLOR AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

At 301 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Perry, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Lake Bird, Iddo, Moseley Hall, Ebb, Secotan, Boyd, Eridu,
Sirmans and Shady Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3013 8355 3013 8381 3028 8383 3032 8381
3032 8379 3034 8379 3040 8375 3035 8351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 097DEG 19KT 3024 8356

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

30-PULLIN

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:34 pm

Warnings everywhere folks..stay alert and safe out there...........................Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
321 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

FLZ040-031945-
Marion FL-
321 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

At 321 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Ocala Airport, or 11 miles northwest of Ocala, moving
northwest at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Ocala, Sparr, Anthony, Ocala Airport, Reddick, Flemington, Lowell and
Romeo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2921 8252 2922 8240 2948 8240 2949 8231
2932 8200 2922 8204 2910 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 122DEG 24KT 2929 8228

$$

ELSENHEIMER

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:37 pm


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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:51 pm


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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:52 pm

Also John, who else am I missing?
Largo- I wonder if Jenny checks into this site anymore?

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by gomexwx on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:53 pm

I am making preparations for a minimal hurricane(meaning I am finding a nice sheltered area to be outside and image Gordo when I punch him in the eye:)

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:56 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Also John, who else am I missing?
Largo- I wonder if Jenny checks into this site anymore?
Yeah Billsfan I keep hoping Jenny would rejoin us here,havent heard from John in a few days, maybe he went off somewhere for the Holiday weekend

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:56 pm

gomexwx wrote:I am making preparations for a minimal hurricane(meaning I am finding a nice sheltered area to be outside and image Gordo when I punch him in the eye:)
LOL

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:57 pm

lol Gome! We watch from outside too during Cat 1 storms.

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:58 pm

FSU has a home game tonight at 8 !

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by sangria on Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:43 pm

Go Gomey!!   We expect vid....

Speaking of - Levi vid

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by sangria on Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:45 pm

Hurricane watch has now been upped to a warning...


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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by gomexwx on Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:12 pm

uh......getting the cameras charged!

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:24 pm

Thanks San.
My family in Foley said they aren’t concerned. Oh ok.

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by StPeteFLwx on Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:43 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Seems to be winding down already in my area.

Spent the weekend near you (Plantation), just drove back to St Pete with the storm.

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:01 pm

Hey St Pete! Thanks for checking in! That couldn’t of been too much fun! The drive that is.

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:45 pm

5,000 people without power in Broward and Dade. I know not many but barely a storm in our area.

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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Post by JRnOldsmar on Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:20 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:How is everyone? Largo, JR, WD, San, PT?

Good, here in Jax. Thanks, Bills.
"Family busy" around here, but took in a 2-hour walk with Sis on Jax Beach around sunset. Lightning north and south; nice breeze, great night. Showering on/off for last 24 hours, it seems. Not paying much attention, but keeping one ear tuned.

Thanks for the Gulf comments, Gomey. Don't let that tail whup you up side da head!
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Re: CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

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