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CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

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CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:37 am

Good Wednesday Morning folks! San can you Close the old blog thanks...gome how did you make out with Gordon?..did you lose power etc???

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:41 am

just checked the models and it seems the Euro Model has Florence again heading for the our USA coastline so with the Tropics heating up we all need to stay alert and safe..

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:42 am


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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:51 am

the overnight Euro run and you can see trouble coming IF this verifies,but track can still change...

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:54 am

I just want to mention..in my area the Largo police have arrested the Mother of that child that was missing/abducted with First degree Murder....this (snipped) from baynews9......LARGO, Fla. — The mother of the 2-year-old Largo boy that had been the subject of an Ambert Alert for several days has been arrested and charged in the boy's death.

Body o missing 2-year-old boy found in wooded area near Lake Avenue, McMullen Road
Charisse Stinson, 21, charged with 1st degree murder
Investigation ongoing

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:15 am

6Z GFS model run from this morning,so far south Carolina northward for Florence................

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:47 am

well IF today's model runs verify.in 9 days time,we could have a major hurricane strike on the SE coastline somewhere, and Florida could be in that danger zone too...go away Florence,please

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:57 am

744
ABNT20 KNHC 051148
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the east-central tropical Atlantic Ocean,
and on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Gordon, located over
central Mississippi.

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week
while the system moves west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
in a few days. Some development of the system is possible over the
weekend while the wave moves westward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:50 am

Good morning Largo and all!

Thanks for the new blog Largo- We sure did need one.

Sad about that 2 year old in your area Largo. We were at the meat market on Sunday morning when the amber alert came over the phone. So weird hearing 25-30 phones going bonkers at the same exact moment.

You got that right, go away and die Florence. And same to you Helene when you get named.

Yes, Gome, please let us know how you're doing when you can.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:50 am

Good morning Largo and all!

Thanks for the new blog Largo- We sure did need one.

Sad about that 2 year old in your area Largo. We were at the meat market on Sunday morning when the amber alert came over the phone. So weird hearing 25-30 phones going bonkers at the same exact moment.

You got that right, go away and die Florence. And same to you Helene when you get named.

Yes, Gome, please let us know how you're doing when you can.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:09 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning Largo and all!  

Thanks for the new blog Largo- We sure did need one.

Sad about that 2 year old in your area Largo.  We were at the meat market on Sunday morning when the amber alert came over the phone.  So weird hearing 25-30 phones going bonkers at the same exact moment.  

You got that right, go away and die Florence.  And same to you Helene when you get named.  

Yes, Gome, please let us know how you're doing when you can.  
they found the poor baby in a wooded area about a block and a half from me..geez i walk my dogs right past there some times...can you imagine the baby was alive and convulsing and she threw him into the woods to die a slow horrible death....SHE..is the reason..we Have the Electric Chair

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:12 am


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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:14 am

we really do need to stay on high alert next week, FLO could keep coming west OR come into FL/GA border etc,,then we have 92L sneaking in by the carribbean islands

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by PuppyToes on Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:34 am

Hi all. Well it appears by the models the Eastern seaboard will be in play with Flo and Helene and possibly the Gulf as well. There has been some indication that Helene could be a low rider and go through the BOC and become an Epac storm. It’s early yet but we’ll know more as time goes on, possibly as soon as this weekend. Crazy!!
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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:59 am

PuppyToes wrote:Hi all. Well it appears by the models the Eastern seaboard will be in play with Flo and Helene and possibly the Gulf as well. There has been some indication that Helene could be a low rider and go through the BOC and become an Epac storm. It’s early yet but we’ll know more as time goes on, possibly as soon as this weekend. Crazy!!
yes things getting active now, i think the peak of the tropical season is around september 10th

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:10 am

OMG Largo, you are right, she should be fried!

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:15 am

Thanks for checking in PT!

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:05 pm


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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:16 pm

Aww.
There are sure some sick people in the world!

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:34 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Aww.  
There are sure some sick people in the world!
yes, and i feel so sorry for the kids with them.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:24 pm


Any more of Florence etc....?

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:44 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:
Any more of Florence etc....?
12Z Euro still coming out but it still looks like a Carolina's strike and a Major Hurricane she may be if this intensification keeps up'

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:44 pm


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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:47 pm

I wonder how gome is doing up there, might be get out the row boat kinda day there whew..................

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:52 pm

well now the EURO brings Florence close to the coastline then swings away out into the atlantic..but remember there will be plenty of differing tracks with it in the days to come.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:28 pm

Gome has to be about “ground zero” of where Gordon made landfall. Didn’t he say he was six miles from
AL/MS border?

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StAugustineFL on Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:33 pm

Quick fly-by. Just getting off work and need FOOD as I haven't eaten all day.

Very sad to hear of the little girl. There are too many sick people in this world.

Gomey is NW of Mobile Bay. Hope he made out ok. Haven't had a chance to check anything today.

Go away Flo
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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:08 am

NWS Tampa...500 AM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the region
this afternoon and early evening and these will be capable of
producing strong gusty winds up to 50 mph, waterspouts over the
coastal waters, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent deadly
lightning strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Flooding is occurring on a few rivers across the region, and any
additional heavy rain will exacerbate the flooding. Residents
living along rivers or faster flowing streams should remain aware
of water levels and be ready to move to higher ground should
conditions warrant.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:11 am

Good Thursday Morning folks!! well its back to our normal weather for awhile, I had a good rain for about an hour last evening, Booming pretty good too whew..im watching FLO and the other two systems..nothing to bother us so far...........no word on gome yet?..........well have a great day everyone!

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:21 am

as for FLO.....its a long way off but it May be..a danger somewhere along the east coast of the USA huh....

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:41 am

BILLSFAN.........notice what they said about this coming weekend..................NWS Miami......627 AM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: A moderate risk of rip currents along the Atlantic
beaches.

Lightning: Frequent lightning is expected in thunderstorms. The
greatest lightning risk will be along the east coast from late
morning into mid afternoon, shifting towards the interior and west
coast by mid to late afternoon.

Wind: Thunderstorms will be capable of strong gusty winds up to
45 MPH. The greatest threat of gusty winds is from mid to late
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Low pressure moving through on Friday into the weekend will bring
the potential for heavy rain that may lead to localized flooding.
Thunderstorms are also expected with a threat for lightning and gusty
winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$
SPM

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:47 am

hmmm mon-tues we wait and see where she goes..maybe by this sunday they will know better.................

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:15 am

we cannot believe any model runs just yet but check this out...........................................................

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:17 am

well all eyes will be on FLO but we in Florida had better keep a good eye on 92 or whatever name it will go by, sneaking in along the islands while we arent looking lol

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:21 am

(snipped) NHC.....9/6/2018..............................There is still considerable model ensemble spread for Florence's
track beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time
ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts
Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of
Florence's eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane
will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday and portions of the U.S. East
Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 24.1N 47.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 24.8N 49.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 25.4N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 25.6N 52.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 25.6N 53.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 26.1N 56.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 27.2N 59.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 29.0N 63.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:58 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Quick fly-by.  Just getting off work and need FOOD as I haven't eaten all day.

Very sad to hear of the little girl.  There are too many sick people in this world.

Gomey is NW of Mobile Bay.  Hope he made out ok.  Haven't had a chance to check anything today.

Go away Flo

And I hear the savage child killer is pregnant!!!!

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:02 am

LargoFL wrote:well all eyes will be on FLO but we in Florida had better keep a good eye on 92 or whatever name it will go by, sneaking in along the islands while we arent looking lol


Totally agree with you Largo... My concern has always been whatever was brewing behind Flo. Presumably Helene.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:51 am

well slightly less rain chances for my area today, we'll see how it goes late afternoon on.........

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:52 am

Im wondering if gome was on the beach there punching Gordon in the nose?

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:04 am

IF THIS VERIFIES..it comes in So Florida,UP the middle AND..up the whole east coast!!..danger ahead!!

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:08 am

man i sure hope the GFS is dead wrong ..can you imagine the damage all up the east coast as a hurricane?..

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:14 am


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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:17 am

CZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located near the Mississippi-Arkansas border.

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is centered several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in
organization since yesterday, and there are no indications yet that
the system has a well-defined center of circulation. However,
environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday. Some development of this system is anticipated after
that time, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or
early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Interests in the
Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Public Advisories on Gordon are issued by the Weather Prediction
Center under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the
web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Berg

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:18 am


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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by severstorm on Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:46 am

LargoFL wrote:IF THIS VERIFIES..it comes in So Florida,UP the middle AND..up the whole east coast!!..danger ahead!!

Morning,
Largo I know its a ways out yet BUT...... The GFS had Gordon in the right track most of the time. I think it has been doing a good job so far this year. Not much to track but still has done good.
John Z-hills

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:23 pm

severstorm wrote:
LargoFL wrote:IF THIS VERIFIES..it comes in So Florida,UP the middle AND..up the whole east coast!!..danger ahead!!

Morning,
Largo I know its a ways out yet BUT...... The GFS had Gordon in the right track most of the time. I think it has been doing a good job so far this year. Not much to track but still has done good.
John Z-hills
hiya john, yeah ive went along with the GFS for years now, yeah every now and then the Euro beats it but..the GFS has a better and longer view into the future..well im waiting for sundays model runs then i'll decide what to do if anything, i hate pulling out and installing my pre-cut plywood for the windows etc..hopefully any hurricanes dont come here,ive went thru some Tropical storms already since the 80's and no damage here so far..well just have to wait and see what happens...you stay safe up there ok!!

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:27 pm

oh GOOD GRIEF Largo. I hope and pray that doesn't verify.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:29 pm

Another sad day. Crying or Very sad Today we had to put our 16 year (adopted) cat to rest. He wasn't well anyway and since we had to put our other cat asleep (one month ago today), he's been going downhill FAST. RIP kitty cat.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:32 pm

Largo- have you priced getting hurricane shutters? We have accordions. There are so easy to close, I can do myself in ten minutes. We had them installed 12 years ago and I think they ran around $5,000 for our 3/2 house. None of us are getting any younger and the plywood gets heavier and heavier.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by waterdipper on Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:15 pm

Nothing new here weather wise. Afternoon T-storms everyday. 1.2" the last two days combined. Things are already starting to fire around here as of 2 pm today.

On the models and tropics: The EURO nailed Gordon much earlier than the GFS did. I think the EURO is superior when it comes to early prediction of storms, but often the GFS nails the track better in the short term once a storm is formed. Just my .02 cents.

We will have to watch these storms closely, but these storms are still really far out from the US. A lot of things can happen to keep these storms out to sea or kill them off completely. The only thing that makes me nervous is the MJO is really favorable right now, but should be shutting off in another week or so and I think that will end this period of high activity.

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