Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by waterdipper on Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:07 am

Good Monday morning from the Levy County rainforest. I picked up another 1.85" over the weekend and have now had 18 straight days of measurable rainfall on top of one of the wettest May-Aug years on record. There is now significant standing water in the woods all around me. If we get a tropical system now we are going to have flooding here like we have never seen.

Outside of tropical systems, September is usually the drying out month for us here in the Nature Coast. The rain total is typically front loaded at the beginning of the month and then we slowly work our way into the dry season (Oct-Dec). This year as been atypical so I am sure the rainy season will last for several more weeks. I for one am ready for it to begin any day now as it makes me work way too hard at trying to keep our access road in dry and driveable.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:45 am

waterdipper wrote:Good Monday morning from the Levy County rainforest. I picked up another 1.85" over the weekend and have now had 18 straight days of measurable rainfall on top of one of the wettest May-Aug years on record. There is now significant standing water in the woods all around me. If we get a tropical system now we are going to have flooding here like we have never seen.

Outside of tropical systems, September is usually the drying out month for us here in the Nature Coast. The rain total is typically front loaded at the beginning of the month and then we slowly work our way into the dry season (Oct-Dec). This year as been atypical so I am sure the rainy season will last for several more weeks. I for one am ready for it to begin any day now as it makes me work way too hard at trying to keep our access road in dry and driveable.
good morning WD.hope you folks there dont get any more rain when FLO meanders around the SE coastal states, especially if she comes down into georgia later on

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StPeteFLwx on Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:22 am

Hopefully Isaac dissipates before reaching the hot Caribbean waters

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:17 am

StPeteFLwx wrote:Hopefully Isaac dissipates before reaching the hot Caribbean waters
yes we sure dont need him anywhere near here for sure..thanks for this st pete!!

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:30 am

gee i sure hope people here with family or friends up in the SE coastal states threatened by FLO urge them to evacuate if the order goes out for their area's..this is a Major hurricane..yes the one you run from, not the one you stay to see how bad it Could get huh..weather channel was talking about the area earlier and said the ground is saturated up there already and once Florence gets there and stays..for days..they will be measuring the rainfall in Feet..not inches..can you imagine? geez//my guess is a week or two from now the news stories from there will have some awful stories gee.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:41 am

well so far today i dont see any serious rains or storms for us, maybe later this evening?.............

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:45 am


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:46 am

LargoFL wrote:
Note where the Euro model has Florence end up..stay alert northern Florida

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:49 am

Billsfan and folks on east coast of Florida...this could be Isaac by the Bahama's.....................

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:16 pm

Oh joy Largo! Let's hope not!

My birthday is the 25th and that's not the type of present I had in mind!! Rolling Eyes

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by waterdipper on Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:17 pm

Had a localized downpour at the house during my lunch break. That makes 19 straight days with rain. I betcha I make it to 20 with a good chance to make it to at least 25 looking at the forecast. I have already surpassed last September"s number of rain days and rainfall total and that includes the 5" we got off of Irma.


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:22 pm

That’s crazy WD! Hopefully you dry out soon!

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:27 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Oh joy Largo! Let's hope not!

My birthday is the 25th and that's not the type of present  I had in mind!! Rolling Eyes
i got my doc's appt that day

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:32 pm

thundering like mad here, no rain at all by me but dangerous sounding outside

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by PuppyToes on Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:47 pm

Hey all. Just a note, while battling the FLU - ugh! Not a happy camper. Anyway, looks like Flo is gonna unleash her wrath on the Carolinas and Virginia. I just feel for the folks that will lose everything in just days. I remember watching Katrina and I was mesmerized by her size and strength. Also noticing Isaac in the Carib as well, is he gonna be good, or bad?
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:12 pm

Feel better PT!! I had a bout with the flu a few months ago. YUCK

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by PuppyToes on Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:53 pm

Thanks Bills. It’s certainly not a good time, especially now that I’m older.
pity
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by sangria on Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:27 pm

Hope you feel better soon PT!
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by sangria on Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:27 pm

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:54 pm

PuppyToes wrote:Hey all. Just a note, while battling the FLU - ugh! Not a happy camper. Anyway, looks like Flo is gonna unleash her wrath on the Carolinas and Virginia. I just feel for the folks that will lose everything in just days. I remember watching Katrina and I was mesmerized by her size and strength. Also noticing Isaac in the Carib as well, is he gonna be good, or bad?
Hi PT..remember with the Flu you need plenty of bed rest..get well soon ok

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:56 pm

i just got my Flu shot last week and also pnumonia? shot lol cant spell it,,but being older i need to be careful

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:57 pm

sangria wrote:
wow they are saying..this is a monster hurricane, and could..go to a Cat-5!!

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:00 pm

12Z GFS also has Florence wind up in Georgia near Florida border.........................................................................

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:02 pm

so the Euro and Gfsbrings the remnants of Florernce the LOW into Georgia

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:15 pm

Scary times indeed! Irma was one year ago today.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by sangria on Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:05 pm

Levi vid....

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:52 pm

Thanks San. That blob in the back is Helene?

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:45 am

Good Tuesday Morning folks! wow it was simply POURING down heavy rain here by me this early morning, looks like I picked up almost 1.25 rain..thats good hasnt been any heavy rain here in a few days,,well have a wonderful day everyone!

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:15 am

it would be great if this TS wind cone verified..Aug's area would not get the bad winds.....

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:16 am

keep watching the track for FLO..i dont want to see a southern track surprise

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:25 am

NWS TAMPA...449 AM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms will develop over the Gulf waters early this morning
with activity pushing inland as the day progresses. Gusty winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain will accompany the stronger
storms.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Several area rivers remain in or near flood stage and additional
rainfall may prolong or worsen existing flooding depending on
where the heaviest rains fall. Residents living along rivers or
faster flowing streams should remain aware of water levels and be
ready to move to higher ground should conditions warrant.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by waterdipper on Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:37 am

Good Tuesday morning. I had two T-storms overnight (I heard thunder close by LOL), but no more rainfall. Still at 19 days and counting of consecutive days with measurable rain. Looks like today we are transitioning from the SW flow, morning/overnight showers coming off the Gulf to the easterly flow, afternoon/evening showers. The storms that formed early this AM along the coastline have either dissipated or moved off the coast in the easterly flow that is becoming established. The storms should re-fire later today with the sea breeze, but most will be inland today.

The watching and waiting for the storm to hit in todays day and age of early warning/forecasting brings another element of storm related impacts into play that not many people talk about. That is what type of psychological affect the warnings and hype of an imminent disaster pre-storm can have on people. The fear of losing everything and the unknown of how the storm will impact your life can lead to major health issues even if the storm doesn't hit. Many people who have gone through major weather catastrophes develop PTSD, depression, anxiety on top of their personal losses of property and the disruption of their lives. This is something that can leave permanent scars on folks. This is an aspect the news outlets and the government don't really think about when they start hyping how bad storms will be. Don't get me wrong, I know they are saving lives and allowing time for people to prepare and this is far better than it was when people were surprised by storms, but this is a sad by-product of these major storms and I feel for those people in its path who have to be feeling a sense of impending doom.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:44 am


Does Florida have a fall season?
While it's not going to take the leafpeeping crown from North Carolina or Vermont, Florida does have a fall leaf season. No matter how subtle, let's celebrate them today, the first day of fall, because it means cold fronts (or, in the case of last winter, cool fronts), dry air and open windows will eventually follow.............in Northern hemisphere Fall begins on September 22,2018

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:48 am

im not going thru what i did last year..this time i bought 2 BIG boxes of plastic leaf bags..might go out and buy 2 more..in my area we have LOTS of huge oak trees and man when they start dropping their leaves..look out LOL

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:50 am

P.t how are you feeling today? watch out for any fever..many years ago when i had the Flu, fevers were my worst enemy

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StPeteFLwx on Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:58 am

GFS Thursday afternoon

Ventusky GFS model

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:37 am

yikes St Pete! She's a monster.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:38 am

yes St pete..sure glad and maybe lucky too that she isnt coming here to florida huh

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StPeteFLwx on Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:42 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:yikes St Pete!  She's a monster.

The GFS model walks the storm all the way up the NC coast, then turns around and walks it all the way down the coast. Would be devastating.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:35 pm

whew just finished weeding and raking all around the house, man is it HUMID and HOT..plenty of storm ammo if some LOW makes it anywhere near here.calendar says its fall in about 11 days..ha ha..good luck with that around here

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:38 pm

AUG...FXUS62 KJAX 111922
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
322 PM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

...DETERIORATING BEACH CONDITIONS THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

Weak surface high pressure over the region will continue to
provide weak flow for the remainder of the day and into tonight.
Due to the weak flow, expecting an east-coast sea-breeze to
gradually move westward, resulting in scattered
showers/thunderstorms over the the I-95 corridor early this
afternoon. This activity moves slowly westward toward the I-75
corridor into late afternoon. Coverage becomes more isolated along
the I-75 corridor by the evening hours. Scattered clouds this
evening with temperatures cooling into the lower to mid 70s
inland, and mid to upper 70s along the coast. With calm flow again
tonight, could see some patchy shallow fog.

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday-Friday)...

A similar day expected Wednesday with slightly stronger
northeasterly flow as the pressure gradient tightens with Florence
off to the northeast. Daytime showers and thunderstorms will once
again be scattered and mostly inland during the afternoon hours.
Some coastal showers will be possible during the morning hours. With
regards to Florence and local impacts, 12Z GFS guidance finally
caved to the 00Z ECMWF guidance with landfall near Wilmington,
NC. The GFS then stalls Florence inland under the ridge to the
north. This will keep the forecast area in the dry, subsident air
to the southwest of Florence through the rest of the short term.
With the dry conditions and northerly flow comes a slight increase
in afternoon high temperatures. Mid 90s are expected for
everywhere except those closest to the coast where upper 80s and
lower 90s will be seen. Heat indices between 100-105 are also
forecast. For the coast/beaches, Thursday is expected to be the
worst day conditions wise with elevated surf of 5-6 feet with
occasional 7 foot breakers. By the end of Friday, Florence could
still remain to the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday-Tuesday)...

The long term period remains very uncertain and will be largely
dependent on the location of Florence. The most recent 12Z ECMWF
guidance shows Florence stalling under the midwest ridge near
Wilmington, NC on Friday then moving it southwest along the South
Carolina coast Saturday and Sunday. Florence is then inland near
Savannah, GA Sunday afternoon. While a stall near the coast/inland
has always been a known possibility, this most recent, further
south solution is rather new. Despite the new guidance, going to
maintain the forecast as previously designed. With the expectation
of Florence remaining to the north, southwesterly flow will
increase moisture from the Gulf of Mexico therefore increasing the
chance for precipitation throughout the long-term. Any changes
due to a closer approach from Florence will come in later forecast
packages as confidence increases.

&&

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:41 pm

so we wait and watch for any changes in track and/or strength in Florence still a few days away folks..if your anywhere near being in that cone, NOW is the time to prepare huh..stay alert and safe

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by sangria on Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:11 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks San.  That blob in the back is Helene?

Bills, yes that "blob" in the back is Helene. She is a beauty and glad she is getting yanked north!
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by sangria on Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:15 pm

I'm starting to feel sorry for the SC governor. He issued mandatory evacuations for multiple counties yesterday and then, what I assume, was pressure from folks, he retracted the evac for three of the counties.

I'm guessing after the 12Z Euro run, he is sweating bullets right now and kicking himself in the hiney for backtracking on those orders.
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:28 pm

The public can be so stupid at times. Knee jerk reactions to every wobble.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StAugustineFL on Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:43 pm

That 12z Euro run was interesting for sure. Might be alot of finger pointing going on in SC if it comes to fruition.
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:24 am

folks in Florida..do NOT take your eyes off this Major hurricane......................................

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:27 am


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:30 am

Good Wednesday Morning folks!! pouring rain and thunder woke me up a lil while ago here..seems to be stopping now,well im not liking the model runs this morning, but they still have a few days to change even more huh but the runs seem to be moving more southward this morning..not good for us huh...well have a great day everyone!!

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:24 am

NWS Tampa...440 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Typical summer-time thunderstorms are expected. Thunderstorms
that develop will be capable of producing gusty winds...locally
heavy rains...and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected each day. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing gusty winds...locally heavy rains...and
frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A long fetch of westerly flow will develop over the weekend and
may produce dangerous rip currents along area beaches by Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Jillson

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