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CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 EmptySat Aug 22, 2020 9:09 am by BillsfaninSoFla

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CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 EmptyFri Aug 30, 2019 11:56 am by StPeteFLwx

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CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 EmptyWed May 22, 2019 4:37 pm by StAugustineFL

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CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 EmptyTue Apr 02, 2019 3:43 pm by LargoFL

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CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

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Post by StPeteFLwx Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:45 am

Waves starting to build, this is about 20 offshore of Wilmington.  Barrier Islands are really going to take a hit.
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Post by waterdipper Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:45 am

Thanks JR for the Isaac update from the NHC. That is good news if it indeed comes to fruition. Like you said though, we have seen many strange things including storms regenerating once they get to the SW Carib or the Gulf.

After watching JB's daily summary I am not feeling as good about the outlooks for a quiet rest of the season. Originally he thought that after this burst of activity, the tropics would really start to quiet down, but he now is seeing signs that we may see another burst at the beginning to middle of October. This is normal climatologically speaking, but was hoping that we could stop the storm watching and start enjoying the Fall season by then.

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Post by StPeteFLwx Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:49 am

This ought to be a good place to watch the show
Webcam offshore of Cape Fear

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Post by JRnOldsmar Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:17 am

Thanks for the cam, StPete.

OBX is now in play.

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:30 am

[quote="waterdipper"]Thanks JR for the Isaac update from the NHC. That is good news if it indeed comes to fruition. Like you said though, we have seen many strange things including storms regenerating once they get to the SW Carib or the Gulf.

After watching JB's daily summary I am not feeling as good about the outlooks for a quiet rest of the season. Originally he thought that after this burst of activity, the tropics would really start to quiet down, but he now is seeing signs that we may see another burst at the beginning to middle of October. This is normal climatologically speaking, but was hoping that we could stop the storm watching and start enjoying the Fall season by then.[/quote]



And those ones generally have Florida written all over them!

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Post by LargoFL Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:44 am

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 Lg_whats_ahead
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Post by LargoFL Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:50 am

NWS Tampa...445 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon and continue into the early evening hours, with the
highest rain chances expected south of Interstate 4. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, locally heavy
rainfall, and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Several area rivers remain in or near flood stage and additional
rainfall may prolong or worsen existing flooding depending on
where the heaviest rains fall. Residents living along rivers or
faster flowing streams should remain aware of water levels and be
ready to move to higher ground should conditions warrant.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected each day. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing gusty winds, locally heavy rains, and
frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A long fetch of westerly flow will develop over the weekend and
may produce dangerous rip currents along area beaches by Sunday.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Flooding is forecast to continue on several area rivers. With
storms possible each day, locally heavy rains could lead to
worsening river flood conditions depending on where the rain
falls. Residents living along rivers or faster flowing streams
should remain aware of water levels and be ready to move to higher
ground should conditions warrant.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Fleming
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Post by LargoFL Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:51 am

so we get some lower rain chances next 7 days around Tampa bay region, but 40% isnt too bad huh
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Post by LargoFL Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:53 am

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 093018_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34
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Post by LargoFL Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:54 am

Aug you might want to be careful in those tropical force winds..stay alert and safe up there ok
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Post by StAugustineFL Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:51 pm

I'm not sure why the NHC has me in the "potato of doom" per Largo's NHC graphic. The storm is hundreds of miles from here and no longer a threat as it was a couple of days ago when models were showing a southward bend.

System has come to the predicted stall off the NC coast. Coastal NC has been getting some heavy bands of wind/rain for awhile. Surge will pile in near/north of the center.
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Post by LargoFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:07 am

StAugustineFL wrote:I'm not sure why the NHC has me in the "potato of doom" per Largo's NHC graphic.  The storm is hundreds of miles from here and no longer a threat as it was a couple of days ago when models were showing a southward bend.  

System has come to the predicted stall off the NC coast.  Coastal NC has been getting some heavy bands of wind/rain for awhile.  Surge will pile in near/north of the center.
yeah, lets see what the cone looks like later today AUG
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Post by LargoFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:09 am

NWS Miami...354 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY WEST PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEST PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: Building north-northeast swell from Hurricane Florence
will lead to a High Risk of rip currents along the beaches of Palm
Beach County. It will also bring a Moderate Risk for the Broward and
Miami-Dade beaches.

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous storms will be possible this
afternoon into this evening over South Florida especially over the
interior and east coast metro areas. Primary impacts from the
thunderstorms will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall.

Flooding: Building long period northeasterly swell from Hurricane
Florence will bring the threat for localized beach erosion along the
Palm Beach County coast, especially at high tides which is between 12
PM and 1 PM EDT this afternoon and again between 11 PM and 1 AM
tonight.

Waves: Seas will build to 6-8 feet in the waters of Palm Beach
County and 5 to 7 feet in rest of the Atlantic Waters in a long
period north-northeast swell.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

The long period northeast swell from Hurricane Florence will slowly
dissipate through the weekend in the Atlantic waters. This will keep
the enhancement of risk of rip currents ongoing along the east coast
beaches of South Florida this weekend.

Thunderstorms will be most numerous over the eastern areas on
Saturday before shifting to the western areas early next week.
However, most areas will still see scattered thunderstorms through
next week. Occasional to locally frequent lightning strikes along
with locally heavy rainfall will be the main hazards from the
thunderstorms.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Baxter
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Post by LargoFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:10 am

BILLSFAN..It seems you are in the money rain wise today-tomorrow..per NWS Miami...good luck down there ok
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Post by LargoFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:13 am

well it looks like a Little lower rain chance today for my area..Lawn work ahead lol..CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 Image13
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Post by LargoFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:05 am

AUG...YOUR new Cone and it seems later TODAY your in the possible TS winds....CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 093211_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34
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Post by LargoFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:08 am

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Post by LargoFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:12 am

000
FXUS62 KJAX 140824
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
424 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...HOT WITH LESS RAINFALL COVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY...

.NEAR TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Hurricane Florence remains off the coast of North Carolina this
morning. Higher seas related to the storm have subsided, though we
may still see some minor coastal flooding and the possibility of
rip currents again today so have let those advisories stand for
now. The main weather story today are the hot and humid
conditions, nearing record high values again today for
Jacksonville (today`s record is 96 degrees). Heat index values
will reach the 100 to 105 range across the area. PWATs have
steadily declined with the subsidence (1.67 inches on the 06z
sounding at JAX), and as such only very isolated showers and a few
storms are possible across north central Florida where SBCAPE can
reach greater than 1000 J/kg. Some of the hi-res solutions suggest
an outer rainband from Florence may make it to the coastal waters
or the Altamaha River Valley this evening.

SHORT TERM.../Saturday and Sunday/...
Drier conditions are expected at the start of the weekend, with
isolated storms and showers possible. Above average temperatures
are expected on Saturday, with potential heat indices reaching
100-105 degrees in northern and central Florida. Sunday is
expected to have a much higher level of precipitable water enter
into the region over northern Florida, bringing overcast skies and
more abundant storms but will also result in lower temperatures
than those that will be experienced on Saturday.

High temperatures are expected to be in low to mid 90s during
this span, with low overnight temperatures dropping into the mid
to low 70s.
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Post by LargoFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:16 am

Good FRIDAY morning folks and TGIF!!!....well for my area lesser rain chances today but that's ok, I have lawn duties etc lol...well i hope those who have relatives or friends up in the Storm zone find they are ok when this is all over..a dangerous storm it is, real glad it didnt come here..well have a wonderful day everyone
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Post by LargoFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:19 am

folks be a lil careful outdoors today..temps will be mid 90's and the heat index will surely be in the low 100's. be sure to drink those liquids..stay safe.
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Post by LargoFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:22 am

NWS TAMPA...440 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon and continue into the early evening hours, with the
highest rain chances expected south of Interstate 4. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, locally heavy
rainfall, and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Several area rivers remain in or near flood stage and additional
rainfall may prolong or worsen existing flooding depending on
where the heaviest rains fall. Residents living along rivers or
faster flowing streams should remain aware of water levels and be
ready to move to higher ground should conditions warrant.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected each day. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing gusty winds, locally heavy rains, and
frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A long fetch of westerly flow will develop over the weekend and
may produce dangerous rip currents along area beaches by Sunday.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Flooding is forecast to continue on several area rivers. With
storms possible each day, locally heavy rains could lead to
worsening river flood conditions depending on where the rain
falls. Residents living along rivers or faster flowing streams
should remain aware of water levels and be ready to move to higher
ground should conditions warrant.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Fleming
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:56 am

Good morning Largo and all.

Thanks so much for the updates Largo!

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Post by StPeteFLwx Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:03 am

Friend's house it right about where the eye wall is
CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 Flo_0910

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:11 am

Oh wow St Pete. Hope they do ok! Let us know

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Post by StPeteFLwx Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:35 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Oh wow St Pete.  Hope they do ok! Let us know

They vacated to Asheville but are in contact with a neighbor who stayed. The neighbor said it is raining like hell and 75 mph gusts. No power, guess cell service is still up since they are communicating.

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Post by StPeteFLwx Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:59 am

81% of Duke's customer's in NC coastal counties without power

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Post by LargoFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:34 pm

StPeteFLwx wrote:81% of Duke's customer's in NC coastal counties without power
gee that's a high percentage of customers there huh
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Post by LargoFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:35 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning Largo and all.

Thanks so much for the updates Largo!
good morning Billsfan..Good luck on the rains ok
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:25 pm

LargoFL wrote:
StPeteFLwx wrote:81% of Duke's customer's in NC coastal counties without power
gee that's a high percentage of customers there huh

not really, considering. Something like Flo, it'd be 99.5% percent of FPL customers would be without and probably for over a week!
One city in west Broward, Weston, has all their electric underground or whatever. They didn't even lose power with Wilma. There were like 6 million Floridians without power in her aftermath. UGGH 3 of my neighbors were 22 days without (different grid then mine, thank goodness)

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Post by StAugustineFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:07 pm

Hope the folks to the north have done well with Flo. It's wore me out watching from afar much less being at ground zero.

Sunny, 95, and near calm winds locally today with the subsidence from Flo.
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Post by StAugustineFL Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:13 pm

For those following Isaac here's the 5pm advisory. I can sum it up in much fewer words........"We have no idea what's going to happen".

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

It has been a very interesting flight of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft this afternoon. Dropsonde and SFMR data indicate that the
maximum winds are around 35 kt again, and the pressure has fallen
to about 1002 mb. However, the system is tilted southward with
vertical height due to northerly shear, and scatterometer and
Hurricane Hunter tail-Doppler radar data indicate the system is
elongated from northeast to southwest, albeit closed. Note that the
plane was unable to sample the southwestern quadrant well because of
strong convection and intense lightning, so the flight-level winds
showing no circulation were unrepresentative.

The intensity forecast hasn't gotten any easier with Isaac.
Vertical shear is expected to decrease a bit more, which might
diminish the effects of dry air seen on water vapor images around
the cyclone. However, the GFS and ECMWF continue to insist that
Isaac will degenerate into a wave within the next 2 or 3 days, which
is almost unanimously supported by their respective ensemble
members. This is the solution that the official forecast follows.
It should be noted that none of the global models show pressures
this low now with Isaac, except the UKMET, and that model is the one
that holds onto the circulation the longest. The reality of the
situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the
best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see
if we gain any confidence.

Isaac is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge over the
southwestern Atlantic should steer the cyclone westward over the
weekend then west-northwestward early next week as Isaac reaches a
weaker portion of the ridge. Just like yesterday, a stronger system
would likely turn more to the west-northwest earlier, moving
closer to Jamaica. Since the system is forecast to be weaker, the
forecast lies on the westward and faster side of the guidance, and
should also be considered low confidence since it depends on the
intensity. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of the
Isaac.
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:23 pm

Hopefully Isaac goes poof

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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:20 am

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 Lg_spaghetti2
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:24 am

Good Saturday morning folks! a lil breezy here this early morning as i walked the dogs,feels kinda nice,no rain by me yesterday and local met is saying only a slight 20% chance later today..well Coffee is ready for when you get here..grab a cup and relax here awhile...have a wonderful day everyone!
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:04 am

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Post by StAugustineFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:15 am

Morning.  Gonna be a bit on the warm side today for mid September.  Another 95 degree day with a heat index of 106 in the forecast.  No chance of rain.  Pretty much a repeat of yesterday.   Pattern seems to return to more normal tomorrow into next week with rain chances returning and temps "cooling" a bit to 90 give or take a couple of degrees.  Up in this part of the state we should only be a month or so away from the first taste of cooler, fall air.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:03 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  Gonna be a bit on the warm side today for mid September.  Another 95 degree day with a heat index of 106 in the forecast.  No chance of rain.  Pretty much a repeat of yesterday.   Pattern seems to return to more normal tomorrow into next week with rain chances returning and temps "cooling" a bit to 90 give or take a couple of degrees.  Up in this part of the state we should only be a month or so away from the first taste of cooler, fall air.
good morning Aug..yes next week our afternoon showers/storms return by my area also..im glad your area is no longer in the cone of possible winds..seems FLO is going to go inland and northward whenever she decides to go lol..when you start to get the cooler temps..please email some down here ok LOL..have a great day Aug!!
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:15 am

well just for the fun of it im going to keep a good eye on Isaac down in the caribbean,dont want any surprises for us.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:19 am

NWS Melbourne...9/15
.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Late morning and afternoon heat index readings between 100 and
105 degrees are expected over much of east central Florida and
inland from the Space and Treasure coasts. If working outside or
engaging in any outdoor activity, be sure to remain well hydrated
and take frequent breaks.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:21 am

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 Image3
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Post by sangria Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:36 am

You got your wish Bills!

Isaac has poofed and the 5am advisory is the last that NHC will be issuing. Very Happy
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:48 am

27% chance of rain?

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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:49 am

Good thing San! But I’m with Largo, still keeping an eye out, just in case.

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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:05 am

NWS MIAMI....841 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES...
...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR...
...LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a High Risk of Rip Currents on Palm Beach
County beaches. There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Miami-
Dade and Broward counties beaches.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across interior south Florida as well as northern parts of
the east coast metropolitan areas. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible elsewhere throughout the day. The primary threat from these
thunderstorms is frequent cloud to ground lightning.

Flooding: Localized flooding of urban areas is possible this
afternoon as showers and thunderstorms today will be very slow
moving.

Waterspouts: There is a risk of waterspouts today on Atlantic waters
and Lake Okeechobee, especially off Palm Beach County.

Temperatures: Heat index values around 105 degrees are expected
across northern portions of South Florida today, especially north of
Interstate 75/Alligator Alley.
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:10 am

Well with COPD.. THIS is really bothering me..thank you gov scott for taking $700,000 out of the budget to keep our waters free from this red tide.. news said
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:10 am

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
814 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

FLZ050-155-160-162-165-160200-
/O.CON.KTBW.BH.S.0010.000000T0000Z-180918T0200Z/
Pinellas-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Coastal Charlotte-
Coastal Lee-
814 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

* RED TIDE HAZARDS...Possible respiratory irritation in some
coastal areas.

For red tide forecast information visit
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/gomx.html

* FLORIDA RED TIDE RESPIRATORY IRRITATION POTENTIAL IMPACTS...
Symptoms may include coughing...sneezing...and tearing eyes.
People with respiratory conditions such as asthma...
emphysema...and other pulmonary diseases may be more
sensitive. Irritation may vary locally and throughout the day.
If you experience uncomfortable symptoms...consider going to
an unaffected beach nearby.

* FLORIDA RED TIDE RESPIRATORY IRRITATION TIMING/LOCATION...NOAA
FORECAST:... Coastal northern Pinellas County: Bay
regions...possible Saturday and Sunday. Coastal southern
Pinellas County: Gulf coast...possible Saturday and Sunday.
Coastal southern Manatee County: Gulf coast and bay
regions...possible Saturday and Sunday. Coastal Sarasota County:
Gulf coast...possible Saturday and Sunday. Bay regions of
northern Sarasota...possible Saturday and Sunday. Coastal
Charlotte County: Gulf coast...possible Saturday and Sunday. Bay
regions of southern Charlotte...possible Saturday and Sunday.
Coastal northern, central, and southern Lee County: Gulf coast
and bay regions...possible Saturday and Sunday.
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Post by sangria Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:30 am

Hopefully the red tide will subside soon Largo - doesn't it generally start to dissipate when the temps start to drop a few degrees?

Hey Bills, don't you just love those odd % on the precip maps?!?!?! Ruskin NWS has been doing that for several months now, I just LOL when I see them.
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Post by sangria Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:31 am

Here are some current rainfall totals from Florence.................

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 07yi4A7
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:39 am

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 6 20180915_153212_sport_goesEast_abi_conus_11p20um
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Post by LargoFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:42 am

those rainfall amounts are astonishing since most of that is in ONE days time..can you imagine oh..say 12 inches or more of rain.. falling around YOUR house in one day? my god, id be flooded out for sure.
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