Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:01 am

Billsfan...NWS Miami........................................411 AM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave will
move from east to west across south Florida today. The primary
concerns from these thunderstorms will be gusty winds, heavy rain,
and occasional lightning.

Wind: Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds
up to 40 mph.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will exist across Palm
Beach County beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

The region will continue to be impacted by the tropical wave this
weekend which will bring the potential for heavy rain that may lead
to localized flooding. Thunderstorms are also expected with a threat
for lightning and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind and flooding to the
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:04 am

anywhere from FL to the Carolina's, track not set in stone yet..................................................

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:10 am

(NWS TPA Snipped)...One big question mark remains the potential influence of Hurricane
Florence. Long range models remain in poor agreement in exactly
where Florence will track, though models DO NOT currently show it
impacting the Florida peninsula. However, a more southerly track
would influence the overall flow pattern and daily weather for the
end of next week. All interests along the Atlantic coast from
coastal Georgia northward to Maine should closely monitor Florence
as models continue to show a greater chance of some impact, even if
the center of the system remains offshore.

&&

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:23 am


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:28 am

Good Friday morning and TGIF!!!!..well I got a few good Thunderstorms here yesterday.I hope those who need more rain get it..local news baynews9 yesterday noted my area is now at 7.25 inches above the normal for the year so far,TY rainy season lol.......well more of the same with the afternoon/evening TS's and rain..while south florida has a tropical wave moving over it..good luck Billsfan on the rain..well lots to do today for me...take care and have a great day everyone!

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by waterdipper on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:00 am

Good morning. Had another 1" of rainfall yesterday. Came in two rounds, both .50". That brings my September total up to 4.5". Rain has been extremely heavy this summer in several places, with Levy County getting way more than its share for most of the year. The amazing thing about this years rainy season for my area is it started in May and it is still cranking here in September. NWS Ruskin put out it's Summer (Jun-Aug) Climate Summary and Chiefland had it's 4th wettest summer on record. They also had the second highest days of measurable rainfall at 61 days (62 is the highest).

Here is a link to the Summary. Take a look at your area to see how it falls out compared to normal and the records:

https://www.weather.gov/tbw/summer2018climate

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by severstorm on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:05 am

Morning All,
I also had rain yesterday. Had .47 in the bucket and that puts my Sept. up to 1.76 Looks like we should get some good rain today then it might settle down for a little.
Bills sorry to hear about your other cat.
Have a great weekend and keep one eye to the east!!!
John Z-hills

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:39 am

waterdipper wrote:Good morning. Had another 1" of rainfall yesterday. Came in two rounds, both .50". That brings my September total up to 4.5". Rain has been extremely heavy this summer in several places, with Levy County getting way more than its share for most of the year. The amazing thing about this years rainy season for my area is it started in May and it is still cranking here in September. NWS Ruskin put out it's Summer (Jun-Aug) Climate Summary and Chiefland had it's 4th wettest summer on record. They also had the second highest days of measurable rainfall at 61 days (62 is the highest).

Here is a link to the Summary. Take a look at your area to see how it falls out compared to normal and the records:

https://www.weather.gov/tbw/summer2018climate
good morning, yes indeed this Has been a very wet rainy season so far huh

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:40 am

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
I also had rain yesterday. Had .47 in the bucket and that puts my Sept. up to 1.76 Looks like we should get some good rain today then it might settle down for a little.
Bills sorry to hear about your other cat.
Have a great weekend and keep one eye to the east!!!
John Z-hills
good Morning john!! glad your getting the rain also!!

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:42 am

well we cannot believe the models just yet, so much uncertainty they say..but IF i lived in the Carolina's, i'd be going over mi supplies and especially preps right now since FLO if she DOES hit there will be a Major hurricane..the kind you dont fool around with huh..im still hoping she turns northward away from the USA

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:52 am


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by severstorm on Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:55 am

LargoFL wrote:

I could buy into this path BUT it really depends on how strong the high is that moves to the north of Flo as to the real path.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by JRnOldsmar on Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:22 am

Sorry to hear about your kitty, Bills.

Back home as of yesterday, and got caught in an evening storm on my bike ride. Rode it out in a park shelter up by Mike's (weather page) place.

More than 7" of rain since I left home last Friday. Every day rain up to 2"+. Official Tampa rainfall was double average last month, and only showing 1.35 for Sept to date. Year-to-date is showing 2" less than 2017 and 4" less than average. Excepting March, this has been a wet year for me.
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:29 am

Thanks John and JR...


Florence- go away!

I'm going to TRY to convince hubby this weekend to make sure the generator is in working order and maybe pick up some gas to keep on hand. I cannot stand be unprepared.

And we are down to 4 cases of water from the 10 I had a few weeks ago, so need some. I have hurricane adult beverages stashed away in closet. LOL

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:32 am

JR- do you follow Mike's Weather Page on Facebook? I like him and he does numerous updates.

There's another one that I followed last year, maybe he's from Jax area, but I haven't seen him post this year I don't think at least.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by JRnOldsmar on Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:35 pm

Hey Bills. I'm not a big facebook user and only follow my daughter. I just checked my notifications, and the unread ones (only 9 of them) start at 8/26. On the groups that I am a part of there are 10 unread updates, and half of those are with the group that has Aug, San, and Gomey. I guess I'll try to catch up soon. Wink
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:44 pm

Aug..latest CMC model run brings FLO into Georgia...Florida isnt out of danger yet either, the folks good at this are saying a ridge to the north is going to block FLO from going out to sea and will force it into the SE coastline...exactly where is now the question....we went out this morning and bought 5 cases of water..ALDI has a sale on them..and we bought a few bags of BBQ nuggets..in case we lose power and have to cook outside...but we'll see how this goes, maybe sun or monday they will have a better idea.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:46 pm


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:03 pm

FLO does seem to be sinking a bit southward on radar pics..lets see if its still doing this later on

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:07 pm

I guess it doesnt matter exactly where it comes ashore, we all get some of its winds................................

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:11 pm


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:19 pm


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:35 pm

Hi all, sorry about your cat bills. Glad to see folks checking in.

Been getting brief downpours passing through mainly during the morning the past few days with the onshore flow that seems to have persisted for 2 weeks now.

FLO will be interesting to watch in the coming days.
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:31 pm

Thanks Aug

We got two downpours today. Haven't checked the gauge.

Flo is getting a bit unnerving for eastern seaboard!

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by JRnOldsmar on Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:55 pm

Perfect storms tonight. Sent me inside to start dinner, and ended at bike-ride time. Near 2". Lower 70's for the ride. Beautiful sunset. Smile
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:26 pm

Lucky you! Not too bad here actually not 85 lol

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:55 am

NWS Miami...437 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES...

This is the hazardous outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Lightning: Numerous showers along with scattered thunderstorms are
forecast for South Florida today with best chances across interior
and portions of east coast although there is at least a chance
anywhere across the region. Main concerns will be frequent lightning
strikes, brief periods of heavy rain, and gusty winds.

Flooding: Ponding of water on roadways of low lying and poor drainage
areas is a possibility particularly this afternoon and early evening.
Best chances of this happening is across interior and portion of
east coast metro areas.

Wind: Strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph particularly across interior and portions of east
coast.

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the
Palm Beach County beaches today particularly around time of low tide
in the early afternoon.

Waterspout: Isolated waterspouts will be possible over both the Atlantic
and Gulf waters today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tropical Storm Florence will be approaching the U.S. east coast
towards the middle to latter part of next week. Potential impacts for
South Florida include increasing risk of high surf resulting in a
high risk of rip currents, the potential for minor to moderate beach
erosion, and minor coastal flooding particularly for the northern
most beaches of palm beach county. However, that concern could
spread farther south depending on the ultimate track of the storm. So
continue to monitor this information over the coming week.

Otherwise afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to prevail through the period.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:59 am


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:01 am

Good Saturday Morning folks!..weather wise if you liked yesterday's weather.you'll love todays weather..its the same lol..local met said a change in wind direction is coming maybe sunday.........well all eyes on FLO's track..stay tuned........well have a great day everyone!

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:51 am

well im not liking the trend of FLO'S Track slowly moving southward..closer to Florida and..it still has a week to sink more southward..watch THIS hurricane very closely folks

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:57 am

here is the Euro ensemble, and CMC also in the same place ....................................................

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:03 am

what im wondering is this...i heard that TS force winds extent out 140 miles from the center, how many miles from the florida/Georgia border is tampa and central florida ? and,,suppose it comes in further southward? remembering its supposed to be a Major cat-4..well enough on the scary talk..still 5 days or more away huh..tracks can still change day to day im glad we restocked our supplies yesterday..everything we can use later even IF the storm goes to SC etc,but whew..we'll sure have to do alot of BBQ's lol

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:35 am

Morning. Here's a Levi vid from last night. It's a LONG one. 18 + minutes. The Flo discussion starts at 9 minutes.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:37 am

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:46 am

Personally I breathe a sigh of relief when these Cabo Verde long track storms get north of 30N latitude and preferably along/east of 80W longitude since my general location is 30N/81.5W. Anything a little south of 30N while west of 80W = not good, lol
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:19 am

GM Aug...If I lived by you i'd be preparing for at the very least..a strong TS and quite possibly hurricane force winds, especially when she gets closer to the coast, her cone of winds is huge and if cat 4..her storm surge would be awful too,regardless of where she finally comes ashore..stay safe ok

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by sangria on Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:30 am

Good morning all.....

Eenie meenie miney mo
Pick a storm - I'll pick Flo!


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:49 am

sangria wrote:Good morning all.....

Eenie meenie miney mo
Pick a storm - I'll pick Flo!


LOL good Morning San!!

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:19 am

Ran up to the store and stocked up on some necessities should Flo decide to take a more westerly course. All stuff I'll use anyway so it's all good.
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:21 am

12Z model track guidance. SC northward on this run.

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by JRnOldsmar on Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:39 am

Personally, I'm not liking TD#9.
Family is definitely in the path of Florence. Jax to Charleston. All are keen on this.
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:09 am

The low riders are a bit disconcerting JR. Could stay due west and bury itself into Central America or make a northward turn once into the Caribbean. Models aren't too bullish on it at the moment but then again Flo was supposed to go "out to sea" several days ago. We'll be watching I'm sure. Smile
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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:18 pm


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:21 pm


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:22 pm

we cannot believe any model runs, maybe by tuesday huh

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:15 pm


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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:55 pm

Hey everyone! Yikes for the Carolinas . One niece in Charleston, one in Hilton Head. I'm with you JR, don't like TD 9 either!



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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:20 pm

please note...as FLO nears..it looks like ALL of Florida would be in the cone for TS force winds..stay safe folks..

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:27 pm

well jacksonville to north carolina..thats what NHC says is the danger zone of landfall anywhere within that..i sure dont want to wake up say thursday or friday and see FLO coming into Jacksonville,,or worse...surprise she's coming into Daytona beach..remembering UNTIL she makes that slight northwest turn..she is coming westward still..and they are saying the steering currents might relax, then she sits there building..whew...AUG be careful ok

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Re: Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:30 pm


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