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CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:14 pm

very good weather site heremikes weather page


Last edited by LargoFL on Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:16 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:15 pm


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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:53 pm

chances up to 40% now stay tuned thru this coming weekend........................Tropical Weather Discussion
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. A broad low pressure area centered near the northeastern coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras is producing an extensive area of
disorganized clouds and thunderstorms over the central and western
Caribbean Sea, as well as portions of Central America. While
surface pressures are relatively low in the area, upper-level winds
are currently not favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
Environmental conditions could become less hostile by late this
weekend or early next week, and a tropical depression could form as
the system moves slowly northwestward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:55 pm

ok folks..carry on the good work in here..see ya'all tomorrow...good evening everyone!

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:06 pm

XUS62 KTBW 041847
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
247 PM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

...Heat Continues through the Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...
Mid level ridging centered above the southeast U.S. sprawls across
most of the Gulf of Mexico region through the end of the week. A
ridge of surface high pressure over coastal Atlantic waters
extends to the western Gulf coast...between Latitude 30 and 35
North...and eases eastward Fri.

Northeasterly steering and low level flow gradually becomes easterly
overnight then easterly to east-southeasterly during Fri. the
surface low relaxes slightly Fri...enough to allow a very limited
sea breeze effect near the coast. PWAT values range generally 1.3 to
1.5 inches from north to south. However a couple of wide swaths of
higher values...1.6 to 1.9 inches...sweep across this afternoon and
again Fri afternoon over the central and southern counties. This
moisture will provide isolated to low end scattered showers and
storms along and south of the I-4 Corridor. These move from east
to west and will slip out over the Gulf in the early evenings.
Temperatures stay above normal and may approach the record high
values today and Fri.

For Sat through next Thu: Mid-level ridging slides off the southeast
U.S. coast during the weekend then meanders over the adjacent
Atlantic waters for next week while dominating most of the Gulf
region. the surface ridge axis noted above resides between 30 and 35
as it is reinforced from the north Sun-Mon. Toward midweek the
ridge lifts north...over and east of the Mid-Atlantic states as a
trough or low pressure area enters the western Gulf from the
Caribbean. Easterly flow with adequate moisture for scattered
showers and storms prevail into around midweek. Then southeast
becoming southerly flow takes over with some higher speeds and
increasing moisture...with scattered to numerous showers and
storms.

The National Hurricane Center is discussing an extensive area of
disorganized clouds and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea
and gives it a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the
next 5 days.

&&

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:10 pm

hmm if this model winds out..we all along the gulf coast might be in trouble........

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:13 pm

Icon model also brings a storm unto west coast then cross Florida to the ATL.whew................

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:14 pm

so it sure looks like a stormy next week,,stay alert and safe folks ok.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:49 pm

Good afternoon Largo and all. Thank you for all the updates Largo. Hopefully this thing gets its act together so we get an idea where it’s going !

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StAugustineFL on Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:02 pm

Good afternoon.  I'm with WD's post from Ruskin.  If something were to develop it looks like it's not coming here.  

Largo - the 850 MB maps are at roughly 5,000 feet elevation.  You can knock off a good 15% for the projected winds at surface level.

Here's a millibar to altitude map for those interested when looking at models.  

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:06 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

An area of low pressure located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua is accompanied by an
extensive area of disturbed weather extending from Central America
eastward across Hispaniola. Although strong winds aloft are located
just to the north of this system, the upper-level environment is
expected to be conducive enough to allow for some development, and a
tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next
week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico
while the system moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring
torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the
Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:02 am

Billsfan..check out the 2-7 day mention.......................................416 AM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST...
...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic
beaches.

Thunderstorms: A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, primarily along the gulf coast. Lightning is the main
hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A high risk for rip currents should continue this week in association
with a northeast swell from distant Tropical Storm Leslie. Rough
surf and brisk winds are also possible. Mariners should exercise
caution.

A surge of tropical moisture should arrive early next week in
association with a disturbance over the northwest Caribbean. Wet and
stormy conditions are expected, with flooding a possibility. Stay
tuned for further updates.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected. The primary hazards
from these storms are lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:26 am

well all of the overnight Models I look at..say the tropical something comes up the Gulf into the northern gulf states, and some of the models make it a big storm in size,,but as always..nothing has actually formed yet so everything is model guesswork huh..i only hope my area gets some of its rain eventually.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:28 am

Good Friday Morning folks and TGIF!!!!..no rain at my house once again but some folks in the area did get some, well have a great day folks!!!

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:30 am

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. An area of low pressure located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua is accompanied by an
extensive area of disturbed weather extending from Central America
eastward across Hispaniola. Although strong winds aloft are located
just to the north of this system, the upper-level environment is
expected to be conducive enough to allow for some development, and a
tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next
week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico
while the system moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring
torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the
Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Berg

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:46 am

Important..central florida..........................

All lanes of eastbound Interstate 4 are blocked in Mango following a crash near Exit 10, near Interstate 75. Stay with tampabay.com for updates.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:27 am

Good morning! Thanks for heads up Largo!

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:31 am

Eeek.... What a traffic nightmare that must be.

Last Friday, 4 northbound lanes of 95 were completely blocked right by the exit near my office/house. The traffic on the side roads was horrific, a standstill, gridlock. It took my daughter over a half hour to go about 2-3 miles coming back from Miami.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by waterdipper on Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:51 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Eeek.... What a traffic nightmare that must be.  

Last Friday, 4 northbound lanes of 95 were completely blocked right by the exit near my office/house.   The traffic on the side roads was horrific, a standstill, gridlock.  It took my daughter over a half hour to go about 2-3 miles coming back from Miami.

Man it was a tough commute here this morning as well. I had a deer run in front of me right at my gate. Then a couple miles down the limerock road a flock of turkeys decided they couldn't give me the right of way and I had to wait 30 seconds to let them cross. TGIF. Very Happy

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:55 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning!  Thanks for heads up Largo!
ok Billsfan..good luck down there getting the rains ok.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:55 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Eeek.... What a traffic nightmare that must be.  

Last Friday, 4 northbound lanes of 95 were completely blocked right by the exit near my office/house.   The traffic on the side roads was horrific, a standstill, gridlock.  It took my daughter over a half hour to go about 2-3 miles coming back from Miami.
yeah alot of out of towners here too whew.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:57 am

yes folks..drive a lil extra carefully..arrive safe ok

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:01 am

gee i hope the Navy model runs dont verify, if they do there's going to be ALOT of damage...

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:03 am

this found on the web..could be very true, we'll see how this plays out next week....

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StPeteFLwx on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:19 am

UK model has it originating in the Pacific and crossing over

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:30 am

StPeteFLwx wrote:UK model has it originating in the Pacific and crossing over
you know i saw that on a couple of model runs, suppose something crosses over and supplies the ammo to give the caribbean moisture its energy to develop into a tropical storm or whatever its to become?

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:32 am

Jenny IF your lurking, there could be some stormy weather close to your area next week, heed your local NWS warnings up there ok

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:34 am


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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:46 am

well now im storm prepared, i'll plywood the windows if it begin to look like its coming to Tampa bay area..i just hope it wont be a cat-4-5 gee, we surely dont need that around here.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:46 am

LargoFL wrote:very good weather site heremikes weather page


Agree! I like Mike's site!

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:56 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:
LargoFL wrote:very good weather site heremikes weather page


Agree!   I like Mike's site!
yeah billsfan his site is maybe the best ive seen in quite awhile.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:56 am


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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:57 am

i see the EURO now see's maybe a second storm down there too.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:08 am

stay alert folks..............................Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border of Honduras
and Nicaragua have become more concentrated during the past several
hours. Although strong winds aloft are located just to the north of
this system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive
enough to allow slow development, and a tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system moves
slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily
to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:10 am

ok i have some things to do..BBL

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:32 pm

oh oh..the GFS model has joined the others, making it a hurricane and into the panhandle......

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:38 pm

chances up to 40-70 now, stay tuned...................................ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. A broad area of low pressure centered near the northeastern coast
of Honduras is drifting northwestward and producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity from Central America
east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to Hispaniola.
Although strong winds aloft persist just to the north of the
system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive
enough to allow slow development. A tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwestward
to northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to
portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:39 pm

im wondering how strong the winds will be around here..tampa bay northward?..any guesses??

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:40 pm

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Category Sustained Winds
2 96-110 mph 83-95 kt 154-177 km/h
3 (major) 111-129 mph 96-112 kt 178-208 km/h
4 (major) 130-156 mph 113-136 kt 209-251 km/h
5 (major) 157 mph or higher 137 kt or higher 252 km/h or higher

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:43 pm


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
204 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Strong upper ridging aloft over the region continues through weekend
before finally moving up into the Mid-Atlantic region early next
week. At the surface, the W Atlantic high pressure ridge axis into
the Deep South will keep a fairly tight 4-6+mb gradient across the
Florida peninsula between low pressure area in NW Carib with
moderate and occasionally gusty easterly steering flow in place.
Limited mean layer moisture and subsidence aloft for mainly only
isolated convection while temps remain well above normal.

Next week`s forecast remains highly uncertain as NHC/WPC move
tropical feature into the C Gulf through mid week then N Gulf later
in the week. Latest guidance keeps system west of the local area
with deepening SE-S-SW flow and increased rainfall chances and waves
along area beaches. Will continue to closely monitor the system for
any additional impacts to the local area.

&&

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:48 pm

well it seems most of the models like the northern gulf coast for landfall and, most of the models are increasing strength..lets keep a very close watch on this storm ok

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:51 pm

XUS62 KMFL 051751
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
151 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with easterly
flow prevailing through the period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 943 AM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018/

UPDATE...
Latest satellite shows the higher PWAT air gradually moving into
the Gulf of Mexico while drier air mass makes its way into the FL
peninsula. Derived PWAT across the region are still around 1.6 to
1.4 in to the west, even though drier air gradually filters into
S FL this PM. Latest 12Z KMFL sounding depict the drier air
through much of the column especially mid levels. Also, short term
models continue to show drier trend across the east coast this
afternoon while iso showers and thunderstorms still possible in
the interior west of the Lake and west Gulf coast. Expect another
warm day across S FL reaching the low to mid 90s. Current forecast
updates reflect the latest trend on the observation. The High
Risk of Rip Currents continues through the day for all Atlantic
beaches.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:04 pm

hey st pete..i see they are trying out all Electric city buses down there in st pete, i hope they do real well!!

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:10 pm


AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
151 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with easterly
flow prevailing through the period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 943 AM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018/

UPDATE...
Latest satellite shows the higher PWAT air gradually moving into
the Gulf of Mexico while drier air mass makes its way into the FL
peninsula. Derived PWAT across the region are still around 1.6 to
1.4 in to the west, even though drier air gradually filters into
S FL this PM. Latest 12Z KMFL sounding depict the drier air
through much of the column especially mid levels. Also, short term
models continue to show drier trend across the east coast this
afternoon while iso showers and thunderstorms still possible in
the interior west of the Lake and west Gulf coast. Expect another
warm day across S FL reaching the low to mid 90s. Current forecast
updates reflect the latest trend on the observation. The High
Risk of Rip Currents continues through the day for all Atlantic
beaches.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:13 pm


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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:42 pm

Thanks Largo. I just saw the update. I don’t trust those storms down there with fronts. I’d be even more concerned if it were later in October

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:21 pm

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:34 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.  I'm with WD's post from Ruskin.  If something were to develop it looks like it's not coming here.  

Largo - the 850 MB maps are at roughly 5,000 feet elevation.  You can knock off a good 15% for the projected winds at surface level.

Here's a millibar to altitude map for those interested when looking at models.  

oh ok..thanks Aug, high winds are what scares me damage wise.

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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Post by LargoFL on Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:37 pm


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Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

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