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Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:52 am

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

The satellite presentation of Michael has continued to improve
overnight and this morning, with the center well embedded within an
area of cold cloud tops. An eye is becoming apparent in visible
imagery, and this was also confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave
overpass and the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. The
aircraft reported a minimum pressure around 982 mb during the most
recent pass through the center, and also found flight-level
winds that support upgrading Michael to a a 65-kt hurricane for this
advisory.

Although the outflow is still somewhat restricted over the western
portion of the circulation, it has been expanding in that
direction. The global models suggest that the shear will relax a
little more while the hurricane moves over the very warm waters of
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Now that Michael has developed an
inner core, steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the
next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index and
DTOPS give a 55-60 percent chance of rapid intensification during
the next 24 hours. The updated NHC forecast is near the upper-end
of the guidance and calls for rapid strengthening over the next 24
hours, and brings Michael to major hurricane status. After
that time, most of the intensity guidance slows down the rate of
intensification, perhaps due to a slight increase in southwesterly
shear. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the forecast track
keeps a portion of the circulation over water along the southeast
U.S. coast, so Michael is predicted to remain a tropical storm
through 72 hours. The system should become a powerful extratropical
low off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast in about 4 days.

Reconnaissance aircraft fixes indicate that Michael is still moving
a little east of due north. The hurricane should move northward or
north-northwestward over the next couple of days while the storm
crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico. By 48 hours, Michael should
turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving into the central
United States. The cross-track spread in the guidance has
decreased since yesterday, but there continue to be differences in
how fast Michael moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. The HWRF
and GFS remain among the faster models, while the ECMWF is still
much slower. The NHC track is along the eastern side of the
guidance through 24 hours due to the recent motion of the storm,
and is remains near the various consensus aids after that time. The
post-tropical portion of the track and intensity forecast is based
on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-
threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity.
Residents in the storm surge and hurricane watch areas should follow
any advice given by local officials, as storm surge and hurricane
warnings will likely be issued later today.

2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of the Carolinas through Thursday.

3. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba
this afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today.

4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.6N 85.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.4N 85.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.4N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.6N 86.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 42.8N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:01 am

I'm eyeballing the 85W longitude line for point of reference. It slipped a bit east to 84.9W on this update.
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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:11 am

Forecast as of 11 AM is ever so slightly east on the whole in the longer term but a little more pronounced in the short term.  Hold your mouse pointer over the line at various areas along the beginning of the loop versus the end of the loop (NHC's 11AM update).  

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions


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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:12 am

Oh my goodness! That's scary. We've got winds probably 25-30 mph gusts.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by sangria on Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:24 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Forecast as of 11 AM is ever so slightly east on the whole in the longer term but a little more pronounced in the short term.  Hold your mouse pointer over the line at various areas along the beginning of the loop versus the end of the loop (NHC's 11AM update).  

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Another handly link Aug. It is easier to see the subtle changes versus using the NHC archive cones.
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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:50 am

FSU already closing for the week.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StPeteFLwx on Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:46 pm

The GOES satellite imagery is amazing.

Hope Michael doesn’t pull a Charley with a last minute right turn

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:02 pm

And Michael is precisely why I tell my family and friends to try to avoid scheduling things they want me to go to or come for a visit in September and October.  We just never know when a storm is going to pop up, and odds are if one does, someone in Florida will likely get it.  
Just over 20 years ago my mom had planned to fly in for my birthday, and I tried to talk her out of it in the first place, but she insisted.  So, when it looked like we were going to get a storm or scare, I tried to get her to change the flight, but she said "no, it'll be fine" so she flew down.(by then we were under a HWatch)   I had to fight traffic (have to pass directly by a lumber store by airport) to get to airport to get her, and on the ride home she stared in amazement at homes and offices all boarding up. When we pulled down our street and she saw every single house boarded up, she said, "I'm beginning to think this wasn't a good idea".  And then said, "let me try to get a flight home"!   I was like, nope, too late, you're stuck now.  Smile Thank goodness it was just a huge scare.


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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:03 pm

StPeteFLwx wrote:The GOES satellite imagery is amazing.

Hope Michael doesn’t pull a Charley with a last minute right turn


Amen St Pete!! And Mike is three times (or more) the size of Charley!

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:34 pm


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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:36 pm

I just heard on the news..the EURO model is calling for 148 mph winds when it comes ashore up in the panhandle

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:38 pm

i sure hope Jenny will get thru this ok..it will be a strong Major hurricane and BIG is size also whew,the met on the news thinks it will be a fast mover as it passes tampa bay..we'll see if that verifies

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:40 pm

NWS thinks 2-4 inches of rain..we can handle that and myself i welcome it..boy i need it

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:42 pm

sure must be massive evacuations up in the panhandle all the way thru the big bend area..stay safe up there folks..heed the warnings

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:44 pm


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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:18 pm

LargoFL wrote:i sure hope Jenny will get thru this ok..it will be a strong Major hurricane and BIG is size also whew,the met on the news thinks it will be a fast mover as it passes tampa bay..we'll see if that verifies

Yep, Jenny's right in the middle of the bullseye I think. Imagine parents having to come from all over the state to pick up their kids from FSU? Back in the stone ages when I was in college, the overwhelmingly majority of students did not have cars on campus. Maybe that's different now.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:19 pm

The middle-lower Keys are getting some pretty good lines of storms coming through.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StPeteFLwx on Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:22 pm

Building consensus on the wunderblog that the front wont make it down in time so no east push

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:27 pm

ATCHES AND WARNINGS
Active Weather Alerts

Location Alert Type
Pinellas County
10/15/2018 11:20 AM Storm Surge Watch
Details
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - St. Petersburg - Clearwater - Largo * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or intensity. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: through early Thursday afternoon - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of greater than 3 feet above ground. - PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should soon be brought to completion before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or needlessly risk lives. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast. - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and numerous rip currents. - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFO: - http://www.weather.go

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:31 pm

ATCHES AND WARNINGS
Active Weather Alerts

Location Alert Type
Pinellas County
10/15/2018 11:20 AM Storm Surge Watch
Details
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - St. Petersburg - Clearwater - Largo * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or intensity. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: through early Thursday afternoon - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of greater than 3 feet above ground. - PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should soon be brought to completion before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or needlessly risk lives. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast. - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and numerous rip currents. - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFO: - http://www.weather.go

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StPeteFLwx on Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:39 pm

Weather Channel should have a “Where’s Cantore?” map

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:41 pm

StPeteFLwx wrote:Weather Channel should have a “Where’s Cantore?” map
yeah for sure LOL

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:57 pm

StPeteFLwx wrote:Building consensus on the wunderblog that the front wont make it down in time so no east push

18Z guidance is out.  Models are clustered tightly.  Landfall looks roughly from Panama City to Apalachicola then accelerates post-landfall through south central/central GA to the Carolinas.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:03 pm


CitrusSchools
@CitrusSchools
As a result of the recommendation made by the Citrus County Sheriff’s Office to open shelters tomorrow, schools will be closed and all after school activities and events are canceled for Tuesday,... https://www.facebook.com/CitrusCountySchoolDistrict/posts/10156509537166259

1:36 PM - Oct 8, 2018

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StPeteFLwx on Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:06 pm

Carolinas sure don’t need this

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:08 pm

Nam model not kidding around for us AUG............................................

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:09 pm

well tomorrow is surely going to be a LONG day huh lol...think i'll say good night folks..stay alert and safe ok.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by PuppyToes on Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:12 pm

Hi all. Michael is going to be bad for the panhandle and big bend w storm surge. Such a shame. Cedar Key is recovering from Irma and they’ll probably lose the oyster and clam beds again to Michael. We were notified of a voluntary evacuation in coastal Hernando. Zones A & B. We are in zone D. Just wanted to touch base and please stay safe everyone.
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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:44 pm

Be safe PT!

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:51 pm

I feel so bad for those in the pathway. It’s not like they’re getting much notice. I fear Michael is going to pack quite a whallop inland.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:47 pm

From what I’m seeing on radar, thanks to Cuba for hopefully slowing part of the east side? I don’t know. And not sure of the terrain there.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:57 am


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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:01 am

Michael Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL AL142018
1127 PM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

FLZ050-091130-
/O.CON.KTBW.SS.A.1014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.TR.A.1014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Pinellas-
1127 PM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- St. Petersburg
- Clearwater
- Largo

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to
57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or
intensity.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: through early Thursday afternoon

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Shelter against life-threatening storm surge of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Flood preparations and ordered evacuations should
be complete. Evacuees should be in shelters well away from
storm surge flooding.
- ACT: Remain sheltered in a safe location. Do not venture
outside.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
- Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.weather.gov/tbw

$$

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:11 am

Good TUESDAY Morning everyone!!..whew windy outside as i walked my dogs this early morning but no rain so far and local met says a 60% chance for showers and/or storms thru the day and 80/100% tomorrow..so for myself im hoping i do get some good rain and hopefully no big branches etc on my house as this Hurricane passes tampa bay.......local met says the storm should stay out he thinks about 250 miles into tampa bay so..we will get whatever reaches us from its bad right side but too early yet to know what happens huh...heed your local warnings folks..watch out for flying debris if outside and keep family and yourself safe ok...i fully expect tree branches down etc but hopefully no big tree's down etc...dont need any house damage for sure..

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:14 am

As a result of the recommendation made by the Citrus County Sheriff’s Office to open shelters tomorrow, schools will be closed and all after school activities and events are canceled for Tuesday,..

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:29 am

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these
areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.

2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for
life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.
Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of western
Cuba for a few more hours.

5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 24.1N 85.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 32.3N 83.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 13/0600Z 42.5N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 49.0N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:32 am


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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:38 am

well storm winds are up to 90 mph at 4am HH says..i want to mention something the experts always told the people when a hurricane is coming...never look at the center line in the track..effects from a hurricane are located FAR away from that line..and this storm in size is a big one and still growing stronger thru today and tomorrow,,im watching this storm closely, im only 3-4 miles from the coast and i surely dont want it getting any closer to me lol,,just give me some of your rain mike and i'll be happy lol.........stay alert and safe thru this folks..dont take any chances,dont get hurt

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:39 am

im making 2 pots of the blogs COFFEE for ya'all..grab a cup and sit for while...BBL

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:42 am


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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:44 am

well soon to be 8am tuesday, outside very windy but no rain or storms and sun looks to be breaking thru the clouds a lil..how is it where you live this morning?

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:56 am

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018

FLZ033-038-138-091200-
Coastal Flagler FL-Inland Flagler FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FLAGLER AND SOUTHERN ST.
JOHNS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM EDT...

At 736 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Flagler Beach, moving west at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, Bunnell, Andalusia, Beverly Beach and
Espanola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2947 8109 2946 8112 2943 8110 2942 8114
     2940 8116 2945 8149 2947 8150 2966 8143
     2959 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1136Z 107DEG 31KT 2949 8118

$$

ENYEDI

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:59 am

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
640 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-091400-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
640 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.NOW...

Through this morning. Fast-moving showers and squalls will impact
mainly coastal counties north of Sebastian Inlet this morning
with a few pushing into the interior. Farther south coverage will
be more isolated. Movement will be to the west-northwest around
30 to 35 mph with showers and squalls capable of producing wind
gusts of 40 to 50 mph along with brief periods of torrential
rainfall.

$$

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:01 am

Aug, looks like your area has some good storms this morning.............................

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:07 am

well I hope jenny and all the people up by the panhandle are heeding the warnings.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by waterdipper on Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:08 am

Things are not looking as bleak for Cedar Key today, but they are looking worse for Panama City and Apalachicola. This is looking like it could be one for the record books for that area. The panhandle has and always will be a Hurricane magnet, and for that reason they are pretty well prepared. I for one am feeling better since Michael quit his NE movement and jogged to the NW overnight, and I don't at this time anticipate any severe affects. Cedar Key will have a storm surge, just not the 12' worse case scenario they have been predicting. We got our first storm related rains yesterday afternoon and it was a very quick moving downpour that dumped 0.50" in the gauge. Looks like the weather today will actually be nice for getting storm preps done, but tomorrow into Thursday will be wet/windy. Hope all fair well during the storm.

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by sangria on Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:12 am

Good morning everyone!   No wind whatsoever here and not a sprinkle in the last two days.  I'm not banking on a lot of rain, but a little would be nice.  Smile

Red denotes previous center points and green is the current forecast track.

https://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-14A/ctrack.html

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by sangria on Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:17 am

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:38 am

TROPICS: Michael Strengthens to Category 2 Hurricane with 100 mph Winds

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:39 am

folks..stay alert and please heed your local warnings..storm is getting stronger

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Re: Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

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