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CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by sangria on Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:00 pm

So far I'm not seeing anything lower than 1003mb from the plane. Looks like they may have found "a" center somewhat further south and east from the initial location.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:35 pm

sangria wrote:So far I'm not seeing anything lower than 1003mb from the plane.   Looks like they may have found "a" center somewhat further south and east from the initial location.
yeah still early yet lets see what they find later in the afternoon monday.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:36 pm

NWS MIAMI...1258 PM EDT Sun Oct 7 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAIN CONCERN OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
...KING TIDES MAY BRING COASTAL IMPACTS AROUND SOUTH FLORIDA...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic
beaches.

Marine: Deteriorating marine conditions are expected tonight, with a
small craft advisory in effect for the Atlantic and Gulf waters.
Mariners should exercise extreme caution.

Lightning: Thunderstorms are expected over the waters tonight with a
low risk for lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tropical Storm Michael is currently forecast to become a hurricane
as it lifts north through the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico
early this week. This system is not expected to have a direct impact
on South Florida. Deep moisture will bring widespread squally weather
through at least mid week. The main hazards will be gusty winds,
flooding, and isolated tornadoes.

Marine conditions will deteriorate due to the influence of Tropical
Storm Michael in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters starting tonight.
Advisory conditions are likely through at least mid week. A high
risk of rip currents will continue in the Atlantic waters with a
potential for an elevated risk along the Gulf Beaches starting
Tuesday.

Low-lying coastal areas prone to flooding from astronomical high
tides could also see impacts from heavy rainfall that drains more
slowly due to the elevated high tides. Coastal areas could see high
tides up to 1 foot higher than predicted through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

RAG
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:39 pm

5.5      102 KTS     117 MPH       960 mb...............so a CAT-5 at landfall??..............
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:43 pm

GFS has it at 953MB at landfall wednesday evening
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:49 pm

This latest run of the NAVGEM model keeps it at a tropical storm this run....
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:54 pm

so from the models standpoint, so far... track is mostly north gulf,FL panhandle...what isnt set in stone among the models... is Strength...prepare as best you can and wait this out..if I was up there i'd prepare for a strong storm..an if...it came in as a tropical storm instead of a hurricane..i'd be very Happy indeed..lets wait this out and see what track is the next day or so..euro seems to take a turn east around landfall time or at least it looks that way
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:02 pm

good night folks..tomorrow may be a long day indeed,especially if this storm speeds up or track changes.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:42 am

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:49 am

good Monday morning folks!! well no real change in Mikes track..panhandle folks should already be preparing huh..just hope no surprise right hand turn when we least expect it..for myself im surprised at the model runs..GFS _EURO both come ashore at 955MB thats a STRONG Hurricane while the canadian models come in as Tropical storm strength..so still some confusion on strength,for myself im taking in things that can blow around outside and just hoping` some of that good rain comes my way without any real bad winds or tornado's etc..well have a great day everyone..i'll be on and off today things to do around here.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:53 am

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:58 am

oh oh..Nam models on track..................................
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:04 am

AUG check out the MB on This model's run..omg.............................
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:51 am

Good morning Largo! Better make two pots of extra strong coffee!
Mike’s cloud field looks so big!

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by sangria on Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:59 am

Good morning!

From the 5am discussion:

"Nearly all of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which
left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also
been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids. Overall the
track guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along
the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a
fairly confident track forecast."
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:12 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning Largo!    Better make two pots of extra strong coffee!
Mike’s cloud field looks so big!
yes and some of the major models are bringing it in real strong up there.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:15 am

sangria wrote:Good morning!

From the 5am discussion:

"Nearly all of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which
left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope.  Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also
been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids.  Overall the
track guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along
the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a
fairly confident track forecast."
morning San, yes panhandle to big bend we on the gulf coast had really better keep a solid eye on this storm, im having a bad feeling..in a way im so glad im home as it passes then comes ashore
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:17 am

that NAM model track is saying My area will or could..be feeling some of those high winds as it comes ashore in the big bend area..i dunno what to believe just yet..but Im preparing outside the house.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by sangria on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:18 am

The most important graphic....lol

It's gonna be iffy with regards to rain.

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:23 am

LargoFL wrote:good Monday morning folks!! well no real change in Mikes track..panhandle folks should already be preparing huh..just hope no surprise right hand turn when we least expect it..for myself im surprised at the model runs..GFS _EURO both come ashore at 955MB thats a STRONG Hurricane while the canadian models come in as Tropical storm strength..so still some confusion on strength,for myself im taking in things that can blow around outside and just hoping` some of that good rain comes my way without any real bad winds or tornado's etc..well have a great day everyone..i'll be on and off today things to do around here.

Morning all. Glad to see the slight westward shift. Jenny is in a BAD spot though. My main worry is the projected turn to the ENE or NE on landfall approach and how close it passes my area. The Euro is much further south and east post landfall.

Largo - regarding what I bolded above I would ignore the last Canadian model run. It initialized the storm at 1000 MB when it's currently at 983 MB. I suspect the 12Z will have a correction with intensity.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by sangria on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:25 am

Largo, it looks like the closest point when it passes will put the center approximately 250 miles to the west and from the latest NHC advisory:

"Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center."


Will we get some wind with rain bands? I'm sure we will, but at this point it looks like that would be it.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:26 am

now THIS Nam model run is downright scary..check out the MB numbers gee...
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:27 am

sangria wrote:The most important graphic....lol

It's gonna be iffy with regards to rain.


That surprises me a bit. Must be the dry air ribbon Jax has mentioned a few times. One little snip from their morning disco:

The shield of heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor on Tuesday
evening will shift northward along the southeast Georgia coast on
Tuesday night, with the potential for a dry slot on the western
periphery of Michael moving into our region from Tuesday evening
into early Wednesday. Outer rain bands will then overspread the
Suwannee Valley and inland southeast Georgia on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Low level winds will quickly veer to south-
southeasterly early on Wednesday and then south-southwesterly on
Wednesday night. The potential for an early day dry slot should
boost highs into the upper 80s on Wednesday.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:31 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning Largo!    Better make two pots of extra strong coffee!
Mike’s cloud field looks so big!
2 pots of COFFEE coming up LOL..this storm is scaring me some..whew
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:31 am

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:34 am

the hurricane models mostly bringing it in as a Cat 5 or strong cat 4 storm gee...
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:36 am

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:37 am

I like this radar and overly from SFWMD. Also has the center line of the cone. Of course impacts will be well removed from that line but shows what NHC is forecasting.

Here's the link if anyone wants to bookmark it followed by a static loop.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by sangria on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:37 am

StAugustineFL wrote:
sangria wrote:The most important graphic....lol

It's gonna be iffy with regards to rain.


That surprises me a bit.  Must be the dry air ribbon Jax has mentioned a few times.  One little snip from their morning disco:

The shield of heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor on Tuesday
evening will shift northward along the southeast Georgia coast on
Tuesday night, with the potential for a dry slot on the western
periphery of Michael
moving into our region from Tuesday evening
into early Wednesday. Outer rain bands will then overspread the
Suwannee Valley and inland southeast Georgia on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Low level winds will quickly veer to south-
southeasterly early on Wednesday and then south-southwesterly on
Wednesday night. The potential for an early day dry slot should
boost highs into the upper 80s on Wednesday.


I'm not quite sure what they are talking about. I bolded what doesn't make sense to me. The western periphery would be nowhere near your area.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:38 am

well i have to go out..but folks..LOOK at the sheer size of this ..all of us north of I-4 are going to feel this somewhat huh..please give me some rain Mike LOL...BBL
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by sangria on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:40 am

Hey Largo, I didn't see any mention in this morning's discussion but in the 11pm discussion last night NHC was tossing the HWRF for intensity. That model was not taking shear into account, I believe, which would prevent the massive intensification being depicted in their model.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:41 am

sangria wrote:
StAugustineFL wrote:
sangria wrote:The most important graphic....lol

It's gonna be iffy with regards to rain.


That surprises me a bit.  Must be the dry air ribbon Jax has mentioned a few times.  One little snip from their morning disco:

The shield of heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor on Tuesday
evening will shift northward along the southeast Georgia coast on
Tuesday night, with the potential for a dry slot on the western
periphery of Michael
moving into our region from Tuesday evening
into early Wednesday. Outer rain bands will then overspread the
Suwannee Valley and inland southeast Georgia on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Low level winds will quickly veer to south-
southeasterly early on Wednesday and then south-southwesterly on
Wednesday night. The potential for an early day dry slot should
boost highs into the upper 80s on Wednesday.


I'm not quite sure what they are talking about.  I bolded what doesn't make sense to me.  The western periphery would be nowhere near your area.

It's misleading for sure.  I think what they meant to say or imply was dry air currently on the western side of Michael gets wrapped around to the east side with the counter-clockwise spin.  Smile

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:15 am

For the Tampa Bay/Ruskin CWA.

Hurricane Local Statement
Tropical Storm Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 7
FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-081800-

Tropical Storm Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL  AL142018
555 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

This product covers West Central and Southwest Florida

**TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
   - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued
     for Coastal Citrus, Coastal Hernando, Coastal Hillsborough,
     Coastal Levy, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Pasco, and Pinellas
   - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Inland Citrus,
     Inland Hernando, Inland Hillsborough, Inland Levy, and Inland
     Pasco

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
   - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
     Coastal Citrus, Coastal Hernando, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal
     Levy, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Pasco, and Pinellas
   - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Citrus, Inland
     Hernando, Inland Hillsborough, Inland Levy, and Inland Pasco

* STORM INFORMATION:
   - About 610 miles south-southwest of Cedar Key FL or about 510
     miles south-southwest of Mouth of Tampa Bay FL
   - 20.6N 85.5W
   - Storm Intensity 70 mph
   - Movement North or 360 degrees at 7 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

OVERVIEW...

Tropical Storm Michael is forecast to strengthen while moving
northward over the Gulf of Mexico and will impact West Central and
Southwest Florida Tuesday through Thursday. The primary concerns at
this time are storm surge flooding along the Citrus and Levy county
coasts, heavy rainfall causing localized flooding, and tropical Storm
force winds, mainly close to the coast.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating impacts
from Crystal River northward. Potential impacts in this area include:
   - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
     accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
     buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
     from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
     uninhabitable for an extended period.
   - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
     severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
     stressed.
   - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
   - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
     Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
     onshore and stranded.

Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
to extensive impacts from the Anclote River to Crystal River.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts from Anna Maria to the Anclote River...including Tampa Bay.

Elsewhere across West Central and Southwest Florida, little to no
impact is anticipated.

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
Levy and Citrus. Potential impacts in this area include:
   - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
     to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
     experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
     homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
     objects become dangerous projectiles.
   - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
     numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
     fences and roadway signs blown over.
   - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
     or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
     routes impassable.
   - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
     in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts from
around the Tampa Bay area northward...especially near the coast.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across West Central and Southwest Florida. Potential
impacts include:
   - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
   - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
     Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
     and overflow in spots.
   - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
     vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
     occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
     areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
     near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
     closures.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across West
Central and Southwest Florida. Potential impacts include:
   - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
     of emergency plans during tropical events.
   - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
     and communications disruptions.
   - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
     toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
     large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
     knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
     pulled from moorings.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe
shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin FL around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by waterdipper on Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:24 am

Thanks for all the updates everyone. Nervously watching Michael and I am quite concerned this storm could have major impacts up here in the Nature Coast. Storm surge and flooding rains are the biggest threats at this point. With soils still saturated from this Summer's rains, trees will be coming down too if winds get up and over 50 mph.

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by JRnOldsmar on Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:41 am

Glad you got a chance to check in, WD. I was looking for you this morning. Prepare well and be safe up there.

I watching the surge here. Looks like we'll get a little bit into Tampa Bay. Got some yellow's showing up in my area, in the normal spots.
StPete - Your brother(?) is down in the typical flood area isn't he?
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:23 am

waterdipper wrote:Thanks for all the updates everyone. Nervously watching Michael and I am quite concerned this storm could have major impacts up here in the Nature Coast. Storm surge and flooding rains are the biggest threats at this point. With soils still saturated from this Summer's rains, trees will be coming down too if winds get up and over 50 mph.
Gee WD..would your area be ordered to evacuate?..if so..do so ok..safety first always huh..good luck to all of us in this for sure.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StPeteFLwx on Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:25 am

Looks like its going to interact with cooler sea temps north of Yucatán

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:26 am

well later today or very early tomorrow im taking in things that could blow around outside,not going to board the windows i dont think, if the track changes more this way i'll rush to do that,again im glad i'll be home for this..hopefully just real breezy with rain by me..
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:27 am

StPeteFLwx wrote:Looks like its going to interact with cooler sea temps north of Yucatán
hiya St pete...are YOU ok if the storm surge gets bad? we have a storm surge watch here i think
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:30 am

STORM SURGE WATCH
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
538 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2018

FLZ050-081810-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SS.A.1014.181008T0938Z-000000T0000Z/
538 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2018
Pinellas-

...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch means life-threatening inundation, from rising
water moving inland from the coastline, is possible somewhere within
this area within the next 48 hours

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- St. Petersburg
- Clearwater
- Largo
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StPeteFLwx on Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:40 am

LargoFL wrote:
hiya St pete...are YOU ok if the storm surge gets bad?  we have a storm surge watch here i think
I’m on what we call the “cookie”. No storm surge here

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:55 am

gee the NWs hurricane watches/warnings for each area are a mi,e long..each one gee...go to NWS Tampa and see what they are warning for in YOUR area ok..way too much to post
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:59 am

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StPeteFLwx on Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:06 am

Really flaring up around the center

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by sangria on Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:35 am

Hey WD, glad to see you checking in. That slight shift back to the west is helpful for you; hoping the 11am maintains that shift and doesn't windshield wipe.
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:39 am

I expect an eye will be clearly visible by later today.  It's probably there now but the blowup around the center is likely masking it for the time being.



Last edited by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:42 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:42 am

StPeteFLwx wrote:
LargoFL wrote:
hiya St pete...are YOU ok if the storm surge gets bad?  we have a storm surge watch here i think
I’m on what we call the “cookie”. No storm surge here
glad you'll be ok
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am

well looks like tomorrow we'll start getting the bad winds and if its still moving 5 mph gee might be several days of bad winds here
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by LargoFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:46 am

StAugustineFL wrote:I expect an eye will be clearly visible by later today.  It's probably there now but the blowup around the center is likely masking it for the time being.

one good thing with this, little or no sun for days lol
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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:50 am

NHC update is out.  Michael is a hurricane and now forecast to be a major.

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Re: CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

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