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Late January through February outlook

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Late January through February outlook - Page 10 Empty Re: Late January through February outlook

Post by BillsfaninSoFla Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:01 pm

Hi everyone, thanks Largo for being our glue.

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Post by LargoFL Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:24 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi everyone,  thanks Largo for being our glue.
hiya Billsfan, im trying to keep it going..thanks
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Post by LargoFL Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:24 am

Late January through February outlook - Page 10 Fl_rain_today
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Post by LargoFL Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:27 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
229 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
Strong subtropical ridge to keep area in above normal
warmth and humidity through the period. A weak cool front
has/will stall between Tampa and Fort Myers this morning
then will head back north as a warm front on Wednesday.
Low clouds along the northeast coast of Florida were
headed toward the Tampa Bay area behind the front early
this morning. May have to adjust today`s high temperatures
if trend continues. Best chance of rain will be north of
the front near The Villages. Dry conditions are expected for
southwest Florida.

&&
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Post by LargoFL Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:32 am

Good Tuesday Morning folks!! mid 60's here this morning, not cold feeling at all ..well trash p/u today and we have ALOT of bagged leaves for them lol..cant wait till the tree's stop dropping leaves gee.........well have a great day everyone!!!
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Post by LargoFL Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:08 am

John are you going to the Pasco county Fair??
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Post by LargoFL Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:00 am

well still mid 60's by me and real breezy
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Post by LargoFL Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:18 pm

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1136 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-191845-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1136 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

.NOW...

...Variable Clouds and Warm...

A frontal boundary stalled over central Florida will gradually
weaken through the afternoon. Moisture pooling around the front
will generate considerable low clouds and patchy fog north of
Sebastian Inlet and Lake Kissimmee. To the south, skies will be
mostly sunny. Steady easterly winds between 10 and 15 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph will prevail across central Florida this afternoon,
with temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 70s along and north
of I-4...and in the low to mid 80s to the south.

Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop ahead of the
frontal boundary later this afternoon with rain chances ranging from
20 percent near Vero Beach and Yeehaw Junction to around 50 percent
in Volusia, Seminole, and north Lake counties.

There will be a moderate threat for Rip Currents at the Atlantic
beaches today, mainly during the afternoon. In addition, a Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for the Volusia County Atlantic waters
beyond 20 nautical miles. Small craft operators should exercise
caution closer to the Volusia coastline.

$$


$$
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Post by LargoFL Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:20 pm

Billsfan..a small chance for showers in your area tonight..good luck ok.......................
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Post by LargoFL Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:22 pm

Late January through February outlook - Page 10 Image6
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Post by LargoFL Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:50 pm

well just raked and filled 5 more 55 gal plastic bags filled with leaves etc...tomorrow leaves might be right back gee..never ending
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Post by LargoFL Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:11 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
236 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

...Near Record and Record Warmth Continues...

High and low temperatures to remain 10 to 15 degrees above
normal next 7 days. It was this warm in 2018 on this date.
Normal lows are in the 50s while normal highs are in the mid
70s.

.Discussion...
A warm front was near Crystal River early this morning
based on surface dew point temperatures and the low clouds
north of the front. A strong temperature inversion at 8.6
kft will limit rain chances today to isolated low topped
showers.

Strong subtropical ridge to keep area much above normal
through Sunday with isolated to scattered showers. Our area
is on the west end of a large ridge axis that extended
eastward into the Atlantic. Low rain chances along a Gulf
Coast sea breeze front that forms each afternoon through the
weekend.

A weak cold front moves through the area Sunday Night, will
stall in central Florida Monday. A second shot of cooler air
moves in early Tuesday. Impulses on fast zonal flow aloft
is forecast to bring a good chance of rain north of
Brooksville Tuesday. Will not hit the chance too hard as
this is on day 7 and subtle changes in model run in a fast
zonal flow can have a big difference in perceived weather.

&&
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Post by LargoFL Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:16 am

Good Wednesday Morning Folks!!..warm and dry outside..about 70 degree's already,high's in the 80's today and probably thru sunday..only a small chance for rain by my area...enjoy..have a great day everyone!!
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Post by LargoFL Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:20 am

Late January through February outlook - Page 10 St_pete_now
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Post by LargoFL Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:21 am

whew st Pete...sure is Humid out there today huh...same by me too
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Post by LargoFL Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:58 am

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Post by LargoFL Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:00 am

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Post by LargoFL Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:01 am

Billsfan..NWS Miami is saying there is a chance of waterspouts down there today in their discussion for today.
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Post by StPeteFLwx Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:00 am

LargoFL wrote:whew st Pete...sure is Humid out there today huh...same by me too

Doesn't look like thats going to change for awhile.  Guess its better than most of the southeast!
Late January through February outlook - Page 10 02201910

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Post by LargoFL Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:10 am

StPeteFLwx wrote:
LargoFL wrote:whew st Pete...sure is Humid out there today huh...same by me too

Doesn't look like thats going to change for awhile.  Guess its better than most of the southeast!
Late January through February outlook - Page 10 02201910
yes indeed they are really getting bad storms wow.
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Post by LargoFL Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:41 pm

gee just walked my dogs and that Sun is really HOT here lol...now watch..we'[ll get used to the high 80s for a week or so and boom a freezing cold week comes LOL...its how we in Florida do winter huh
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Post by StPeteFLwx Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:27 pm

Check out the lightning!
Late January through February outlook - Page 10 02201911

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Post by StAugustineFL Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:19 pm

Nice lightning producers!

Had a little rain here yesterday and today totaling .17" thus far.  Looks like the rains return for FL in a week or so (maybe).  This is the current thinking of the WPC for days 6-7 running from 8pm Monday - 8pm Wednesday.

Late January through February outlook - Page 10 WNrLijp
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Post by LargoFL Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:34 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
307 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

Skies were mostly clear this morning with patchy fog in
Inverness and Sebring. This fog was not detected by
satellite suggesting it was shallow and localized.

.SHORT TERM (Today and Friday)...
Unseasonably warm February weather and weak high pressure
will lead to the Gulf Coast sea breeze front moving inland
this afternoon with a chance of showers each afternoon. High
temperatures should remain just below record values.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Strong upper level subtropical ridge begins to flatten out
late in the weekend with zonal flow aloft next week. A weak
cold front moves into the area later on Sunday then stalls
across south Florida Monday. The coolest day during the
period will be on Tuesday with highs 5 to 10 degrees cooler
than Monday (almost normal temperatures) north of a Sarasota
to Sebring line. Only a few degrees cooler to the south.
Temperatures rebound on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered
showers through Sunday but better rain chances next week due
to stalled front and fast zonal flow aloft.

&&
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Post by LargoFL Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:37 am

G0OD Thursday Morning Folks!! whew maybe high 80's temps around here today but just might be an afternoon shower, maybe Summer has arrived? LOL..well Have a Great Day Everyone!!
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Post by LargoFL Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:38 am

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Post by LargoFL Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:40 am

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Post by severstorm Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:03 am

LargoFL wrote:G0OD Thursday Morning Folks!! whew maybe high 80's temps around here today but just might be an afternoon shower, maybe Summer has arrived? LOL..well Have a Great Day Everyone!!

Morning All,
I'm not ready for this weather yet!!!! 87 here yesterday and had a shower in the
late afternoon. Just enough to wet the ground.
All is good around z-hills. Enjoy the weather if this is your cup of tea!
Have a great day!!!!!!!!!!!!!
John Z-hills

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Post by LargoFL Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:10 am

severstorm wrote:
LargoFL wrote:G0OD Thursday Morning Folks!! whew maybe high 80's temps around here today but just might be an afternoon shower, maybe Summer has arrived? LOL..well Have a Great Day Everyone!!

Morning All,
 I'm not ready for this weather yet!!!!  87 here yesterday and had a shower in the
late afternoon. Just enough to wet the ground.
All is good around z-hills. Enjoy the weather if this is your cup of tea!
Have a great day!!!!!!!!!!!!!
John Z-hills
ok John , thanks for letting us know..im sure hoping for an afternoon rain shower herem everything getting real dry with this heat.
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Post by waterdipper Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:51 am

May in February continues unabated. Highs in the mid 80's and lows in the upper 60's. Too warm for Feb, but I think I have seen this before, and not that long ago. That's right, Feb 2018 was very similar with record heat. Looks like the pattern will finally change some this weekend and heading into next week. Highs in the mid 70's and lows in the mid 50's. Even with this cool down, temps are still forecast to be some 10 degrees above normal.

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Post by LargoFL Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:53 pm

waterdipper wrote:May in February continues unabated. Highs in the mid 80's and lows in the upper 60's. Too warm for Feb, but I think I have seen this before, and not that long ago. That's right, Feb 2018 was very similar with record heat. Looks like the pattern will finally change some this weekend and heading into next week. Highs in the mid 70's and lows in the mid 50's. Even with this cool down, temps are still forecast to be some 10 degrees above normal.
ok Thanks for looking ahead WD..i sure could go for 70-50 temps, its great working outdoors weather..especially all the leaves etc to rake up and bag..i did 3 more bags today..way too humid here by me to keep going.....
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Post by StAugustineFL Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:30 pm

Good afternoon. Had a nice line of rain set up yesterday evening. Had an inch in the gauge.

A very potent storm is taking shape for a good portion of the country this weekend. Heavy snows on the back side of the low with a potential severe weather outbreak in the warm sector.
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Post by LargoFL Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:37 am

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.  Had a nice line of rain set up yesterday evening.  Had an inch in the gauge.

A very potent storm is taking shape for a good portion of the country this weekend.  Heavy snows on the back side of the low with a potential severe weather outbreak in the warm sector.
gee you have been lucky AUG with somewhat lower temps and some rain..very warm and dry by me this week..sprinklers on for sure right now lol...
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Post by LargoFL Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:38 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
330 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Broad upper ridging continues to dominate the weather over Florida.
This ridge extends from the Bahamas westward over Florida and into
the Gulf of Mexico keeping a warm and moist southwest wind flow over
the area. This pattern continues through next Tuesday when the
pattern becomes more zonal over the U.S. On the surface, high
pressure east of the Bahamas ridges west over Florida and into the
Gulf of Mexico. This will keep mostly rain-free and unseasonably
warm temperatures over the area through the weekend and into next
week. The next chance of rain will be on Sunday and Monday as a weak
front moves through the area. Temperatures will continue to be well
above normal with mid to upper 80`s expected through the weekend. A
slight cool down expected to start next week but still some 4-6
degrees above normal.

&&
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Post by LargoFL Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:40 am

Good morning folks and TGIF!!!!...well temps still the same here mid 80's for most of us huh whew..but no storms etc that I can see...have a great day everyone!!
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Post by severstorm Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:26 am

Morning All,
Had another rain shower yesterday that put .11 in the bucket. Now I have .77 for the month. It was wet this am when I left. didn't measure in the bucket.
Looking into next weekend might get some good rains??????
Have a great day and weekend!!!!
John Z-hills

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Post by LargoFL Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:32 am

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
 Had another rain shower yesterday that put .11 in the bucket. Now I have .77 for the month. It was wet this am when I left. didn't measure in the bucket.
Looking into next weekend might get some good rains??????
Have a great day and weekend!!!!
John Z-hills
hi John. glad you also had a lil rain up there..have a good weekend ok!!
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Post by LargoFL Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:34 am

oh well..a zero chance for any rain showers here by my area today.................................................Late January through February outlook - Page 10 Image13
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Post by LargoFL Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:34 am

.Late January through February outlook - Page 10 Image13[/quote]
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Post by LargoFL Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:36 am

oh well, it seems my area has a big Zero chance for any rain..i guess its Still our dry season huh
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Post by StPeteFLwx Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:14 am

Early spring for North Florida
Late January through February outlook - Page 10 Six-bloom-index-anomaly

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Post by LargoFL Fri Feb 22, 2019 12:07 pm

StPeteFLwx wrote:Early spring for North Florida
Late January through February outlook - Page 10 Six-bloom-index-anomaly
yes, good luck to them for the ones who farm etc.
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Post by LargoFL Fri Feb 22, 2019 12:08 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
748 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Upper ridging continues over the region with weak surface
high pressure stretched across the FL Peninsula into the
Gulf keeping the hot and humid conditions in place today.
Patchy morning fog more limited than yesterday and should
mix out/burn off shortly with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and very small chances of afternoon seabreeze showers.
Latest grids and forecasts on track.

&&

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Post by LargoFL Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:04 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
346 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper high east of the Bahamas continues to ridge west to
dominate the weather over Florida. This ridge extends from the
Bahamas westward over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico keeping a
warm and moist southwest wind flow over the area. This pattern
continues through next Tuesday when the pattern becomes more zonal
over the U.S. On the surface, high pressure east of the Bahamas
ridges west over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This will keep
mostly rain-free conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures over
the area through the weekend and into next week. The next chance of
rain will be on Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak front stalls over
the area. Temperatures will continue to be well above normal with
mid to upper 80`s expected through the weekend. A slight cool down
expected to start next week but still some 3-5 degrees above normal.

&&
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Post by LargoFL Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:06 am

Good Saturday Morning Folks!!..warm outside 70 already this early morning...warm sunny day ahead for us...enjoy..have a wonderful day everyone!!
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Post by StAugustineFL Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:31 am

Morning. Warm weekend on tap here with temps in the 80's but 60's forecast for Monday followed by 70's. Nice weather!

My main weather focus today will be around Mississippi. SPC has a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms with the potential for long-tracked strong tornado's. Those days are scary. Hope it ends up being a bust.
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Post by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:28 pm

Good afternoon everyone! Very warm, no rain. I think “winter” is over for me.

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Post by StAugustineFL Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:52 pm

You're probably right bills as far south as you are. Looks like quite a bit of rain coming your way over the next week though so that could/should keep the temps in check the days it does rain.
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Post by LargoFL Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:45 am


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
322 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery early this morning shows ridging aloft
continuing over the region. Surface high pressure remains centered to
our east. An area of low pressure is moving toward the Great Lakes
region with a cold front trailing into the southeast. As we head
through today, this front will push over the Florida peninsula,
bringing a chance for a few showers. Surface high pressure will
quickly build over the southeast Sunday night into Monday, with the
frontal boundary stalling over south Florida. Some cooler and drier
air will move over the region for a day, with temperatures back down
to normal values.

Zonal flow will continue through the middle part of the week with
some subtle shortwave energy moving overhead. This, combined with
easterly low-level flow and the stalled boundary will lead to a
rather cloudy couple of days along with increased shower activity.
Temperatures will likely be held down a bit, but will still be back
above normal.

Rain chances remain in the forecast through the end of the work week
ahead of the next cold front for the weekend. This one looks rather
weak for us as well, but time will tell.

&&
LargoFL
LargoFL

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Late January through February outlook - Page 10 Empty Re: Late January through February outlook

Post by LargoFL Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:48 am

Good Sunday Morning everyone!!..whew Mississippi had a Tornado yesterday...glad we didnt get that system here in Florida huh..well another warm day ahead and some may just get a shower or two later today...best chances look to be Panhandle area's etc..well have a great day everyone!!
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