Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

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Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:25 am

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO





Good early Morning. Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to defy the reasons why he should not develop in a area, and time of the World that climatology suggest otherwise. Ernesto developed impressive burst of convection over his center of circulation last evening. This allowed him build a safety cushion around him to keep dry air from entraining into his core. Although convection did decrease slightly, he is now making a rebound during the start of the DMax cycle.





Ernesto has slowed is forward speed to 18mph which helps with intensification. It is still not a walk in the park for Ernesto. He still has some battles to win before hitting his sweet spot of better environmental conditions and untapped ocean heat in a couple of days, which for the most part, been untouched for quite some time. The potential outlook for Ernesto to become a monster still exist and is a scary thought for someone down the road. Expect Ernesto to gradually continue to get better organized throughout the day.

The National Hurricane Center has been fairly consistent with their forecast tract



As you can see the Early Cycle Track Guidance members are starting to become more clustered and in closer agreement as to where Ernesto will travel.



The intensity forecast continue to increase. Now in the Category 4 range.



I will post the latest model runs later in the morning as they will change

Tropical Depression #6 UPGRADED TO FLORENCE


90L was renumbered last night into Tropical Depression#6. This entity came off the African Coast looking very healthy. TD6 is expected to become Tropical Storm Florence sometime today.



The official forecast track



The Late Track Guidance for TD6



We will have more to come over the next couple of days on this storm. There is plenty of time to watch this one. Now, closer to home.

INVEST 91L

An area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas has been designated Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center. Convection associated with 91L increased quite a bit yesterday afternoon.



Given the fact of it location to the Florida Coastline it needs to be watched quite closely for some type of development.



Current model forecast



Irregardless if 91L becomes a tropical depression or even a tropical storm, the results on the Florida Panhandle will be the same.Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will impact much of Florida on Saturday and Sunday.



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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by scouter534 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:42 am

Great update E, thanks. There sure is a lot to watch out there this weekend.
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:46 am

Thanks Scout.

The latest advisory just came out.

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

CORRECTED TIME OF AMSU PASS IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF COLD TOPS HAS INCREASED WHILE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE APPARENT AND THE OUTFLOW HAS
EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...AN AMSU PASS
FROM 0549 UTC SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER STRUCTURE IN THE INNER CORE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
SUGGEST AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW A FASTER PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING AT A
MUCH SLOWER RATE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN
36 HOURS...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE GFDL SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN
EARLIER RUNS...BUT THE HWRF AND MUCH OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE REMAIN
WEAKER. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD SLIGHTLY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE IV15 CONSENSUS AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16 AS ERNESTO IS SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN SHOWING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THIS
TIME THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
UKMET...WHICH NOW JOINS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN SHOWING THAT ERNESTO
WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
4 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SEVERAL OF THE HFIP
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ERNESTO GAINING MORE LATITUDE IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THAT ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.1N 67.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.5N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.1N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.3N 79.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 17.5N 83.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 21.5N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH



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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:55 am

Looking real good again. You can clearly see where the center of circulation is. This is where a eye will form when the time is right.



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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by Tropic Bunker on Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:57 am

Excellent update e! You have your hands full at the moment,lol. Ernesto is looking very healthy.
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by gomexwx on Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:06 am

Ernesto had a strong showing during the diurnal max last evening..Sometime today Ernesto loses his training wheels and becomes a full fledged Hurricane..

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by gomexwx on Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:09 am

91L on the otherhand had a bad time overnight and may not be nothing but a rainmamker for some...I also see we have TD6..and TD six with its cape Verde roots will be a force to be reconed with should it make the trip to the CONUS..

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:43 am

Just a very quick analysis on what the models think. It is going to come down to a battle between the Global Models and the Tropical Models. While the Global Model consensus brings Ernesto into the Yucatan and then into Mexico and the Tropical Models bring Ernesto in the the Gulf of Mexico on coarse of a Louisiana to Texas landfall. The big issue with the Global Models is the fact that most of them don’t develop Ernesto into anything more than a Tropical storm. On the other hand, the Tropical Models are much more aggressive with intensity, while showing the more northerly track. The bottom line is the track forecast beyond 3 days remains highly uncertain
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:45 am

FLORENCE IS BORN

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:54 am

Good info E. I see Ernesto held its' own and then some overnight and 91L crapped the bed.
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:55 am

emcf30 wrote:FLORENCE IS BORN


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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by Seawall on Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:08 am

Those are great animations; especially on the cone e. Kudos to you!
I guess it's time to welcome Flo aboard....
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:18 am

Ernesto is starting to get that look, like he is fixin poke his chest out and flex his muscles a little. Banding features developing in the NW quad and starting to develop decent outflow channels.

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:37 am

Great updates e ! Who woulda thunk we would be watching two Named Storms and an Invest this weekend, with the Wave Train still a rockin!!!

Interesting to see the two different model camps on Ernesto. Going to go look at images from our three storms, and will be back.......wonder if ASCAT caught full pics?


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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:16 am

Ernesto was like a changed man this morning........he put on his big boy pants!!!! And to boot, all of that dry air on his west side does not seem to be having much impact on him....


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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:58 am

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 11:00 am

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 11:04 am

Tropical Storm ERNESTO Forecast Discussion



000
WTNT45 KNHC 041445
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

DESPITE THE EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT AND THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1008 MB. I
DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER.
THE SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND ERNESTO WILL
MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH
CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
SINCE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. SHIPS...LGEM AND THE GFDL
FORECAST ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE THE HWRF EITHER
FORECASTS NO CHANGE OR WEAKENING.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16
KNOTS EMBEDDEED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND ERNESTO
COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT BEYOND THAT
TIME...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF TURN
ERNESTO NORTHWARD...AND THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.8N 71.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.7N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.5N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 18.0N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 22.0N 90.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 11:05 am

Tropical Storm FLORENCE Forecast Discussion



000
WTNT41 KNHC 041447
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED...A WELL-DEFINED BAND
STILL WRAPS AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE CENTER. A BLEND
OF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FLORENCE MOVES OVER
MARGINAL SSTS AND MODERATE SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE STEADILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR FROM A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH TWO DAYS...AND THEN
FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 295/14. A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO
STEER FLORENCE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD PATH DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 3 DAYS. AT LONG RANGE...THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

THE FORMATION OF FLORENCE THIS MORNING MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST
OCCASION THAT THE SIXTH NAMED STORM HAS OCCURRED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...BEHIND ONLY 1936 AND 2005.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.8N 30.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 15.5N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 16.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 16.3N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.5N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 17.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 19.5N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z 22.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by scouter534 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 11:11 am

"I DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER."

You gotta love Avila, he always calls it as he sees it.
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:33 pm

Well Ernesto is quite a bit stronger that the last advisory indicates for sure.

Time: 15:57:00Z
Coordinates: 14.3333N 68.6167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 840.6 mb (~ 24.82 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,573 meters (~ 5,161 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.4 mb (~ 29.81 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 193° at 36 knots (From the SSW at ~ 41.4 mph)
Air Temp: 14.2°C (~ 57.6°F)
Dew Pt: 8.4°C (~ 47.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 60 knots (~ 69.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 48 mm/hr (~ 1.89 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:37 pm



System is flattened on the Southwest Quadrant



Outer Bands of Ernesto near PR



91L status has been down graded to a open tropical wave

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:19 pm

emcf30 wrote:

System is flattened on the Southwest Quadrant


Dry air?????
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:22 pm

I was reading a post from Draken on WU and he is 100 percent exactly correct. This is what Gomey and myself have been saying in the chat for a couple of day. This is why, I for one, have some concern for the Northern Gulf Coast States. Let me try to explain.

This is the current Pacific North American (PNA) Composite Phase Map



What you are seeing in this map is a positive PNA which translates to a ridge in the Western US which would mean a trough in the Eastern US. AS we have been saying for a few days this is the type of pattern that would allow a hurricane, such as Ernesto is projected to become, in the Caribbean to move poleward into the Gulf of Mexico.

Now, there are a few reasons Ernesto could move to the North. A stronger Ernesto will be steered by different levels ( mid to upper) of the atmosphere. Weaker systems, are steered by lower levels. A strong system would feel the affects of any weakness to the ridge or troughs in North America. There is a weakness and a trough showing up on the forecast models. This cannot be discounted.



Even the GFS is changing its tune on this meekness. If you look at the 500mb Height / Vorticity maps you will see this weakness showing up. Until now, none of the Global's, which includes the GFS, UKMET, CMC, EURO really did nothing with this weakness. Meanwhile, the Tropical Models (GFDL, HWRF) indicate this weakness and continue to show a much more northerly in the Central Gulf of Mexico towards the Gulf Coast States. Also, the Tropical Models are more aggressive with intensity of Ernesto

There is no reason, that I can see, as to why Ernesto would not be able to strengthen further at this time. Satellite imagery depicts an organizing cyclone with a developing and respectable Central Dense Overcast (CDO) and developing outflow. If someone has some insite please feel me in, as I am still learning this tropical stuff.

As I said in an earlier post, the battle of the models, Global or Tropical. Who will win. LOL



Oh yea, what does this mean?

16:02:00Z 14.167N 68.433W 843.3 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,561 meters
(~ 5,121 feet) 1011.6 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg) - From 185° at 35 knots
(From the S at ~ 40.2 mph) 13.4°C
(~ 56.1°F) 7.8°C
(~ 46.0°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 68 knots
(~ 78.2 mph) 56 mm/hr
(~ 2.20 in/hr) 66.1 knots (~ 76.0 mph)


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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by gomexwx on Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:29 pm

E nice read...
the stronger Ernesto becomes the greater the odds he heads North in the Gulf....He is already a cane befor scheduled..

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:36 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2012 Time : 161500 UTC
Lat : 14:27:54 N Lon : 69:02:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 989.4mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -71.5C Cloud Region Temp : -70.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:42 pm

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:46 pm

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:47 pm

Tropical Storm ERNESTO Public Advisory



000
WTNT35 KNHC 041737
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 69.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATED THAT THE PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES...WHICH WAS MEASURED AS THE PLANE
WAS DEPARTING THE CYCLONE.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:54 pm

Welcome to our visitors!!!! We try to post pertinent information in the blog for all to see......if you would like to read/interact in our chat area, please take a few minutes to register. It will cost you NOTHING, and you will no longer see any ads, on the pages........

Here is a small excerpt of a recent chat conversation, that you could be involved with........please ignore all typo/grammar mistakes, as no editing is allowed in the chat box, so we all just skip over the mistakes......

[13:30:07] gomexwx : E I agree with your last reply
[13:30:22] gomexwx : sadly so does the NHC center models
[13:30:55] @ emcf30 : yep. Glad SEa ain't on
[13:30:58] gomexwx : they are the ones bringing Ernesto north into the gulf because they see what you described where the global models dont
[13:31:27] gomexwx : watch for a northward shift in the global models the next run
[13:31:36] @ emcf30 : http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/US/gfsUS_500_avort_162.gif
[13:31:37] gomexwx : and watch the GFS shadow the GFDL
[13:32:21] @ emcf30 : that is the first trough. The one behind it show negitive tilt. Severe weather plus a major hurricane moving north. Bad news
[13:35:01] gomexwx : yea could cause some nasty up and down the whole east coast
[13:35:25] gomexwx : not to mention the tonado threat as the hurricane moves inland
[13:35:33] gomexwx : tornado*
[13:35:35] @ emcf30 : yep
[13:36:39] gomexwx : any other models but the GFDL and HWRF and I would not be as concerned
[13:37:20] gomexwx : Storm is reminding me of Ivan of 04
[13:38:13] @ emcf30 : This is what the Sat. sees.
[13:38:45] gomexwx : it see's a cane
[13:40:10] @ emcf30 : Last center fix, big jump to the NW. Jamacia needs to upgrade Tropical Storm Warnings to Hurricane Warnings if this continues
[13:40:36] gomexwx : caymans are in dire straits



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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Aug 04, 2012 2:25 pm

My cone for Ernesto.

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 2:43 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:My cone for Ernesto.


Best Cone I have see yet, except for the one last night

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Aug 04, 2012 2:44 pm

Good analysis E. I saw that post by Drak as well. And, FWIW, he called a FL Debbie landfall from the get-go even though all the forecasting models aside from the GFS were predicting otherwise.

EDIT - last night wasn't a cone but rather the St Aug model track for Ernesto, Flo, and what was then 91L, lol
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:11 pm

Won't be long now until Ernesto will be POOF to an open wave. lmao



And the Euro



POOF. Yea right...........

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:12 pm

OH CRAP, Methinks the animation was put on fast by mistake. LOL.
I am going to leave it. it's kinda cool
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:19 pm

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 4:13 pm

Still showing Ernesto as a Hurricane.


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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 4:20 pm

Would anyone like to take a wild guess where Ex-91L is located.

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 4:57 pm

e...can't really tell, but on sat image it looks like the southern end is splitting off....

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:07 pm

Test
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:29 pm

I animated the Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery for the entire day. The last couple of frames you can see thunderstorms blowing up in the CDO. It is supposed to be taking a breather right now.

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:43 pm

Good Night Ernesto



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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:58 pm

Hurricane Hunters about 300 mile from the center.



Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:20 pm

Thanks for the post.....forgot about the time!!
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:22 pm

Well it look like Climo and the Global models are winning the big debate of intensification or staying week through this area of the Caribbean. This is one prime example of looks can be deceiving. LOL does this storm even have a true closed circulation. Hurricane hunters haven't found on yet.
But it looks so damn good!!!!!!!!
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:26 pm

Recon still indicates Ernesto is not vertically stacked and is not intensifying. Sfc center is west of flight level center, which is likely west of the 500mb center. Until it becomes vertically aligned, it'll remain weak. However, once its able to align, watch out.

And 1007mb it is. Congrats models. Sorry forecasters and ADT. I guess I will not be winning the stupid pole today. Cooking up my crow. I told you all I am not a tropic met. LOLOL
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:43 pm

LOL e........You do a great job!! It appears that Ernesto is creating a lot of frustration for a lot of folks.....satellite presentation, I guess has been deceiving. You sure won't be alone is not winning the pole!!! Now, if you really feel you deserve it.......here is your Thunderbolt Crow!!! Just make sure you cut it up into several equal pieces, so that it can be distributed!!!

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:48 pm

No need for any crow. Take a stab and see what happens. Maybe by the time I'm 45 I'll be ready for a plate of crow, lol Don't know enough to throw out any projections yet.
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by emcf30 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:53 pm

Well I feel better now, I forgot about my discussion from yesterdays blog.



I am covered. No need for any crow. LMAO
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

Post by sangria on Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:56 pm

It will be interesting to see how he responds to D Max tonight.....since he does not seem to follow the rules.....
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, and 91L. The Weekend Trifecta

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