Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

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Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by emcf30 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:23 am

ERNESTO

Despite appearing strong in satellite imagery, Tropical Storm Ernesto has not become any more organized, in fact, he has weakened according to data gathered from a reconnaissance plane.

Boy oh boy can looks be deceiving. Yesterday, a lot of people, including myself, was wondering how could Ernesto be exploding into what was thought to be a hurricane days before any model depicted. How could he develop against all odds moving 24 mph at times. How could Ernesto develop when he was moving so rapidly through the Caribbean Graveyard when history and Climatology told us different. How could this be happening. Well it was not.



Ernesto had what appeared to be a circulation that was centered under the Central Dense Overcast and good venting, or outflow channels developing. In fact, Ernesto was performing one of his best illusion acts on us. What we see is not what we get.

Well in short, Ernesto was running to fast because of the strong tradewinds and left his top behind somewhat. The circulation at the surface is very ill defined. Additionally, the surface and the mid level circulations are not vertically stacked. Until these circulations are stacked, Ernesto WILL NOT strengthen, no matter what the appearance is on your computer screen.

Ernesto is still expected to slow down it's forward movement as the sub-topical ridge begins to weaken and breakdown. As we have been stating for the past few days, this is when Ernesto is expected to take full advantage of the environment he will have available to him and begin to strengthen. This will be an area where the tradewinds will diminish, little shear, and very warm SST's and Ocean Heat Content is available. Still expect this to become a Hurricane before coming ashore.

Lets take a look at the latest intensity forecast.

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ERNESTO AL052012 08/05/12 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 57 61 68 76 84 90 93 96 96 94
V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 57 61 68 76 84 90 93 55 46 44
V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 55 58 61 69 80 92 101 105 61 49 58
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 8 10 4 3 7 2 7 4 11 9 13 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 1 1
SHEAR DIR 234 260 299 325 116 1 10 27 31 1 357 357 360
SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.6
STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 12 10 7 6 8 9 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 47 28 69 74 98 75 72 83 90 79 0 15 54

I have highlighted the highest projected wind speeds in knots and slowest storm motion and highest ocean heat content.



Here is the latest Early Track Guidance





The Global and Tropical models now agree of an Mexican hit before reentering the BOC or the GOM. After that, they are still diverged. This is due to the storm not developing more quickly and the weakness in the ridge will have less of an affect on Ernesto. From the get go of this system, we have said the strength will determine a United States or an South American Hit. This still holds true, IMO.
The GFS Ensembles are now mostly all saying a total Mexico problem from Ernesto.



The current OFFICIAL track issued by the NHC.



Current loop of Ernesto



Ernesto still has the potential of becoming a bad storm in the coming days. Everyone still needs to watch this system closely from the Northern Gulf Coast States all the way down to Mexico and Belize, no matter what the current status of Ernesto is at the moment, or in the next 36 hours. Ernesto still has the possibility of becoming an open wave before re-strengthening once again.

Here is an excellent video forecast issued by 28storms



FLORENCE

Tropical Storm Florence was designated yesterday by the NHC.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

THE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE HAS EVOLVED OVERNIGHT FROM A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST TO MORE OF A SHEAR PATTERN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS CHANGE IN STRUCTURE IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
MODERATE SOUTHEASTELY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE STRUCTURAL
CHANGES...DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE ESSENTIALLY THE
SAME AS BEFORE...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 50 KT.

FLORENCE COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A FAIRLY
STABLE AIRMASS. THE DUST PRODUCT IMAGERY FROM THE GOES-R PROVING
GROUND SHOWS SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND GFS AND ECMWF MODEL VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGEST THAT THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STORM DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN WESTERLY SHEAR BY TUESDAY...AT WHICH TIME STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN SHEAR.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 13
KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT FLORENCE
WILL BEND TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE NHC
FORECAST LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS MOST
OF THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SOUTHWARD TRACK BIAS UP TO THIS POINT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 16.6N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 16.8N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 17.5N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 18.0N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 19.3N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 21.5N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.0N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

The current forecast track from the NHC



Early Cycle Track Guidance



Currently, there is no threat to land. It is possible, based on long range forecast models, Bermuda may have some impacts from this system down the road. Plenty of time to watch this one. Fish for now......

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

A powerful Upper Shortwave Trough and cold front, sweeping into hot, humid air in the East, will trigger Severe Storms one again while extreme heat continues for the Central Plains.

The Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes are waking up to the sound of thunder this morning. The Cold front that is producing these storms will continue it's Eastward march throughout the day. This is the same storm system which we discussed a few days ago that brought severe weather from the Dakotas to the western Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. All the necessary atmospheric ingredients will come together today to help trigger potentially dangerous thunderstorms. People can expect Lines of dangerous thunderstorms producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph as well as torrential downpours. Hail to the size of pin-pong balls will also be possible, especially from the Ohio Valley south into the middle Mississippi Valley. An isolated tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out at this point. As was the case with last weeks storms, millions of people will be affected by these possible Severe Storms today.

Several sporting events may also be impacted including the Pennsylvania 400 Sprint cup race in Pocono, Pennsylvania and the final round of the WGC Bridgestone Invitational being played at Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio. The NFL Pre-season football games should not be affected.

Here is the SPC's Convective Outlook for today.



As always, there will be updates throughout the day on the blog and in the live Chat. Sign up for free to join the discussion in the live chat or on the blogs.
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by gomexwx on Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:38 am

Nice blog..and your thoughts on the TUTT in the Gulf??/Could it keep moving WNW and combine with that shortwave trough ?? If so that would change everything as it may be what attracts Ernesto North..

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:40 am

thanks E
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by scouter534 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:49 am

Great update. Thanks E.
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by sangria on Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:18 am

Thanks for another thorough update e!! Ernesto sure has been difficult to figure out. Thought she just might make a good showing during D Max last night, but long about 4am, I threw in the the towel, and shut er done!!!
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by emcf30 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:28 am

gomexwx wrote:Nice blog..and your thoughts on the TUTT in the Gulf??/Could it keep moving WNW and combine with that shortwave trough ?? If so that would change everything as it may be what attracts Ernesto North..

Well Gomey as you know we have been discussing from the get go that Ernesto's future track will an intensity based forecast, meaning depending on how strong he gets will determine where he makes landfall. This TUTT feature in the GOM is one of the key factors of this intensification process as it was expected to move SW and create excellent environmental conditions ahead of Ernesto in a couple of days. This has been discussed on may of forums , blogs, and YouTube postings by both amateur and professions Meteorologist. With that being said.

The Strong Short Wave Trough, for early August standards, is moving through the Ohio River and Tennessee River Valleys as was discussed in detail above. This is the first trough that was to move through the area and begin to weaken the ridge. Here is a look at the trough.





The TUTT feature in the GOM looks to be moving in a WNW direction towards the coast line. One would have to think the these features would have to have an effect on each other. I would have to think that if the TUTT continues to move to the WNW, it would change every thing that the Global Models are currently looking at. Maybe this is why the Tropical Models are shifting the tract to the NW somewhat. Maybe this is why this model continues to move Ernesto more Northward.



Last edited by emcf30 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:35 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by emcf30 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:29 am

Your Welcome Aug, Scout, and San
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by emcf30 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:31 am

sangria wrote:Thanks for another thorough update e!! Ernesto sure has been difficult to figure out. Thought she just might make a good showing during D Max last night, but long about 4am, I threw in the the towel, and shut er done!!!

I have never known a woman to be named Ernesto. If there is one, I would not want to scrap with her. Just sayin.

lmao lmao lmao lmao lmao
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by sangria on Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:57 am

Oh, My bad.....I was convinced "he" would have lipstick and a bright bow on top of his head this morning....and I got confused.......you would too, if this is how Ernie was pictured in your mind.....


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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by gomexwx on Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:03 am

LOL..if so he may head to NOLA

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by emcf30 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:41 am

From Levi's FB



Ernesto now an open wave undeserving of its name. We expected this as a possibility. Ernesto is not dead though. The pressure center is still 1006mb, and most of the trade winds are behind it now. This is a very vigorous tropical wave that I have said should be treated as a healthy tropical disturbance until the western Caribbean where it may truly develop. The question is how fast it will regenerate before running into the Yucatan. A hurricane is still possible, but the longer it hesitates, the better news for Central America.
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by emcf30 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:07 pm

gomexwx wrote:Nice blog..and your thoughts on the TUTT in the Gulf??/Could it keep moving WNW and combine with that shortwave trough ?? If so that would change everything as it may be what attracts Ernesto North..

Well so much for that theory Gomey. The TUTT is moving WSW now. LOL



http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by Tropic Bunker on Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:34 pm

I'm plotting my next move!

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by emcf30 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 1:13 pm

LMAO Trop
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by emcf30 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 1:15 pm



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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by gomexwx on Sun Aug 05, 2012 1:31 pm

OK...ERNOTO is his name until further notice.....teach him to screw with our theories

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by sangria on Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:00 pm

Tropical Storm ERNESTO Public Advisory


000
WTNT35 KNHC 051739
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

...ERNESTO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 77.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY. SOME SQUALLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HAITI TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by emcf30 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:19 pm

Nice little burst of convection around the other wise naked COC of Ernesto.



We shall see if it can somehow wrap around the center.
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by emcf30 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:58 pm

I have animated the last 20 images from Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery archives.

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:58 pm

IMO Ernie's showing a little sign of life now but I have no clue if it's temporary or maybe he wants to try getting his groove on. Nonetheless he's still chugging along due W and, if that continues, Honduras it may be.



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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by sangria on Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:06 pm


Tropical Storm ERNESTO Public Advisory



000
WTNT35 KNHC 052354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

...ERNESTO GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT APPROACHING THE CENTER OF THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 79.6W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN GRAND
CAYMAN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE
COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:13 am

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL
ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO BE TILTED
NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT...AND THIS STRUCTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW
FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS STILL SHOW ERNESTO APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 TO
48 HOURS...AND THAT IS POSSIBLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT SHOWN
EXPLICITLY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATER IN THE PERIOD SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF TH
DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT USING
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THEREFORE THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION
NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED FURTHER...WITH A LONG-TERM ESTIMATE OF 275/10. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS SHOWN BY MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION BUT IS STILL A LITTLE NORTH OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS.

BASED ON THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 15.4N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.2N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.1N 86.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 17.7N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/0600Z 18.7N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST
96H 10/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST
120H 11/0600Z 19.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND





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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by GrillinInTheEye on Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:21 am

Thanks for the update E.
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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by sangria on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:10 am

Tropical Storm ERNESTO Public Advisory


000
WTNT35 KNHC 061159
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 81.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OF JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

Post by sangria on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:13 am

Quite a slow down in forward movement.......8am advisory shows 15.2N and 81.0 W

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Re: Ernesto, Florence, And Severe Weather At Home

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