Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

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Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:34 am

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO UPGRADE TO HURRICANE



After Ernesto really became an open wave yesterday, according to the data from the Hurricane Hunters, he has put the brakes on. It appears he is now moving well under 10mph and towards the WNW or NW. Then again, it may be from the explosion of thunderstorms expanding outwards that is giving this appearance. We know from past experience with this storm, we can't trust our eyes when evaluating intensity by looking at satellite presentation. Of course, it is way to early to tell the direction of movement. Hurricane Hunters are presently flying into the storm. I think they will find winds of 60mph or over and pressures below 1000, but, will all know soon enough.



It appears Ernesto has found the sweet spot we have been talking about for a couple of days.

The models, for the most part, agree to the future track of Ernesto.



Well, one of the models are getting a little feisty with a Northerly component near the end of the run.



Current steering for the storm. The CONUS Trough

You can clearly see the weakness created by the trough digging through the US





People have been asking why or what will make Ernesto move to the NW to miss the Northern Coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. This trough and weakness in the ridge is your culprit. In fact, this weakness is responsible for the slowdown of Ernesto at the moment. Now, if he was a much stronger system at the moment the forecast track would look much different. But, that's not the case. I would expect , barring any major rapid intensification to a major Hurricane really fast, that Ernesto will be unable to reach the Central Gulf of Mexico and threaten the Gulf Coast States. The forecast track is for a continued motion into the Yucatan and make landfall near Belize City. But, this is Tropical Weather and one should never let their guard down with these systems. You never know with these things.



FLORENCE

Florence is going POOF!



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012

FLORENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AS DRY AIR...AS SEEN IN THE DUST
PRODUCT FROM THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND...HAS BECOME WELL EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO FALL AND
SUPPORT DOWNGRADING FLORENCE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER
WATERS BEYOND 36 HOURS...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE CYCLONE BY THEN. THE NEW NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD
OCCUR AS SOON AS LATER TODAY IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON.
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DUE WEST BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PACE...270/10. THE MODELS AGREE THAT FLORENCE...OR ITS REMNANT
LOW...SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST ECMWF RUN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 16.2N 38.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 16.3N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.6N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z 18.1N 51.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z 20.4N 58.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z 23.5N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED





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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by scouter534 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:39 am

Thanks for the update E. Great job.
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:44 am

HH finding several readings like this. Have not neared the center yet. These are non contaminated reading

Time: 12:01:30Z
Coordinates: 15.55N 80.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,532 meters (~ 5,026 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 12° at 35 knots (From the NNE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Dew Pt: 14.8°C (~ 58.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Pressure of 997 just found with a 6 mile wide eye, under the blow up of convection. Game on.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 12:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 79°59'W (15.5667N 79.9833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 270 miles (434 km) to the SW (232°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 170° at 55kts (From the S at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,469m (4,820ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 0 nautical miles to the SSW (211°) from the flight level center
Radar Signature: Good
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:46 am

Bwaaahahaha at the sponsor for the blog this morning!!!!!

Thanks for the Monday morning coffee reading, e ! Ernest is worse than a woman....can't make up his mind for any length of time!!!!

btw....it was so nice to be able to look at the steering map, and be able to see the trough, and the weakness it was creating. HUGE kudos go out to you and Gomey for all of your great explanations in the chat room, on how to read and understand various maps and charts!!!!


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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:52 am

The center has moved or relocated North of previous center in the past 6 hours.
Up to 65 mph and 994mb

Game On
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:16 am

Now do you see changes happening?...Could get interesting to see how He rolls today

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:24 am

AL, 05, 2012080612, , BEST, 0, 156N, 801W, 55, 994, TS,
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:31 am

gomexwx wrote:Now do you see changes happening?...Could get interesting to see how He rolls today

The biggest thing I see at the moment he is definitely, finally getting stronger. And, the center has shifted to the NE. This should begin a period of a more NW or WNW track. He is still WAY to weak to feel any long term effects of the trough even though it is causing the change in movement at the moment. After the trough moves out of the way, High builds back and Westward he goes. When a ridge builds back where the TUTT is, a more WSW he will go. IMO.

You should see the models shift in the short tern once the new coordinates are imputed into the computers. How this would affect the long term guidance, I don't know. If this pattern keeps up and the movement is more to the NW, then we will see a long term change.

We shall see how things play out throughout the day. A lot could happen..
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:32 am

I just wonder if the tutt will go any where...has not moved as forecasted

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:37 am



62kt SFMR reading in the NW eyewall.



Got this image from Levi's site. Nice live HH data graphs
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:39 am

I like the Graphs

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:40 am

right on the threshold of a Hurricane

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:48 am

The pressure has dropped 9mb in 1 hour and 50 minutes since last advisory.
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:51 am

gomexwx wrote:right on the threshold of a Hurricane

Readings of 72 knot and 77 knot ( 89 mpg ) flight level winds, which have been observed on the last pass, would calculate very close to Hurricane strength for sure at the surface.
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:52 am

If that keeps up...Oh boy...LOL

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:52 am

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 37 mm/hr (~ 1.46 in/hr)
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:53 am

If it gets that gas milage I'm buiyng one

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:53 am

gomexwx wrote:If that keeps up...Oh boy...LOL

Especially with a 6 mile wide eye. Game On
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:54 am

URNT12 KNHC 061344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/13:17:00Z
B. 15 deg 43 min N
080 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1381 m
D. 40 kt
E. 137 deg 3 nm
F. 235 deg 54 kt
G. 137 deg 3 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 17 C / 1538 m
J. 21 C / 1400 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 55 KT E QUAD 12:05:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:06 am

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:15 am

Beautiful view of Ernesto. You can nicely see the blow up of storms near the COC and convective bands developing and feelding in. If there were not a HH in the storm I would not even say this was a strengthening storm Very close if not a hurricane at the moment. LOL

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by maryalice01 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:18 am

Getting scarey looking. Hope it says South. I am getting nervous.

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:25 am

Levi's Latest Tropical Tidbit.

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:35 am

Another good video from Levi!!

I have a couple of questions......

What web page shows the RI Flag status?
What is the current forward motion of Ernesto?
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:38 am

You can see the HH going in for another pass at the center. Notice the little tropical storm emblem in the lower left. This was the previous, 8 am position. Then you can see the jump to the NE when Ernesto began to intensify rapidly.
After this jump, he has moved to the NW and the newest center is 994. This jumping around is common during a cyclone that in intensifying this quickly, especially one with a confirmed 6 mile closed eye.

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:45 am



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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:47 am

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:55 am

I wonder if it goes through rapid intenification what that will do to the next model runs...these are based on it NOT ramping up..

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:59 am

So, I am looking at the google map live recon page.....is that another jump in the center to the NW again?
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:02 am

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 80.5W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 80.5W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 80.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.2N 82.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 88.1W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.0N 92.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 80.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by Seawall on Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:04 am

Great updates guys. Good job!
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:05 am

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

We don't know...LOL

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:33 am

LMAO.

It is amazing what a little shift in the location and strength will do to the models. Starting to spread apart again. Even tho most are still clustered

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:36 am

one model is one thing like an outlier...but now we have a cluster trying to bring the system into the central gulf...hmm

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:38 am

Maybe those models are factoring in a stronger Ernesto, and think the trough will have a bigger influence...
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:42 am

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 14:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 14:36:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°51'N 80°26'W (15.85N 80.4333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 247 miles (397 km) to the SSE (165°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,402m (4,600ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the WNW (293°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 29° at 51kts (From the NNE at ~ 58.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,556m (5,105ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 5 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the east quadrant at 14:47:30Z
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:43 am

What some models may be seeing is trough meet inverted trough which would split the Texas High from the Bermuda High leaving a path between the two for Ernesto

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:38 pm

Methinks ADT has it overdone a little, I hope.

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:41 pm

sangria wrote:Another good video from Levi!!

I have a couple of questions......

What web page shows the RI Flag status?
What is the current forward motion of Ernesto?

Just realized I posted wrong link earlier. This is the one you want. Posted it in chat for ya also.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/adt.html
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:46 pm

Banding features wrapping into the eye wall showing up now on the Microwave 89GHz Imagery



Eye beginning to show on sat.

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:55 pm

Guess there certainly is NO question on the current motion of movement for Ernesto over the past 5 hours or so. Not just a wobble . That is about as Northwest as it gets.

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:17 pm

Ernesto 96 hour Sat loop Goes E

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:20 pm

This is the look of a Hurricane...I think we can drop the tropical storm
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:22 pm

And He is wanting to Crown to the NW...and for the most part you can use the crown as the direction it goes...

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:27 pm

Ernesto IR 72 hour loop beginning Aug 3 1615Z

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:16 pm



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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:35 pm

The Hunters have has a very busy Morning and Afternoon.

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:44 pm

Ernesto looks like crap again. I give up
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:22 pm

WTH's going on with this storm? Looks good then craps out. Looks good then craps out........
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by maryalice01 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:26 pm

Will the Storm threaten the United States? It looks like it is moving this way. Hope the models are right and turns

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

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