Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:43 pm

maryalice01 wrote:Will the Storm threaten the United States? It looks like it is moving this way. Hope the models are right and turns

Board up your house, it is coming right for you....
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:10 pm

Well today it acted like a Hurricane...It stengthened early day but waned as the D-Min came into play...So it will be on cruise control until the air temperature dips below the Sea surface temperature..

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:50 pm

And then GOMEY
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:53 pm

I see we got another Yellow Circle. This is the one all the models are rapidly developing and moving towards the US

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:06 pm

92L is born.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208062356
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012080700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922012
AL, 92, 2012080700, , BEST, 0, 116N, 265W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:26 pm

emcf30 wrote:I see we got another Yellow Circle. This is the one all the models are rapidly developing and moving towards the US


It shouldn't be this one but the wave that'll be exiting Africa in a few days.
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:33 pm

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:40 pm

Thanks E. That's a good shot. Busy times ahead.
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:43 pm

Yes indeed Aug. We should have a few named storms in a row at once with this train.



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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:44 pm

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:50 pm

Still a ways out but what the heck.

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:12 pm

ROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF ERNESTO
HAS TAKEN A BEATING DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ONLY A
SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXISTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE
THE REST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MORE THAN 100
NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE
CONVECTIVE EROSION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND
THAT THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WITH A RADIUS
OF 12-15 NMI. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED THUS
FAR HAS BEEN 61 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST
RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASURED HAS BEEN 46 KT. GIVEN THAT
THE RECON FOUND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF ABOUT 994 MB...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 55 KT UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT COMPLETES ITS MISSION.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 30
HOURS NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTHERN BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS...A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT EXTENDS FROM TEXAS EASTWARD TO
FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
TIGHTLY PACKED CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...EXCEPT
FOR THE LACK OF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH RECON DATA
INDICATE ERNESTO STILL HAS A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DRY AIR
THAT HAS WRAPPED WELL INTO THE CENTER WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION FROM BEING ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS
ABOUT 1C WARMER AND INTO EVEN A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT
18-24 HOURS...THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...AND ERNESTO COULD STILL BECOME
A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AFTER THAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 17.0N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.5N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.3N 86.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.9N 89.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
48H 09/0000Z 19.3N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0000Z 19.5N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 19.4N 97.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z 19.2N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:45 pm

Hurricane Hunter going in for a second center pass.



Second fix found. Drop of 1 millibar to 994. Would not know it by satellite presentation.



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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:57 pm

Not to bad looking for a Tropical Wave given a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours. My bet Tropical Depression tomorrow.



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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:15 am

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 13:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 13:12:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°56'N 84°35'W (17.9333N 84.5833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 239 miles (385 km) to the E (83°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,336m (4,383ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 63kts (From the SE at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (44°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
BANDING HAS DIMINISHED ON CENTRAL FEATURE, BCMNG MORE CIRCULAR. RUNS N THRU SSE.
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:53 am

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 14:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 14:15:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°05'N 84°47'W (18.0833N 84.7833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 228 miles (367 km) to the E (80°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,327m (4,354ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (143°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 207° at 57kts (From the SSW at ~ 65.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,512m (4,961ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:00Z
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 11:49 am

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 15:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 15:18:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°15'N 85°06'W (18.25N 85.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 210 miles (338 km) to the E (95°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,321m (4,334ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the WSW (256°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 346° at 43kts (From the NNW at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the WSW (256°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,512m (4,961ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the east quadrant at 15:24:40Z
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by gomexwx on Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:03 pm

Ernie's living on the edge...Sometime today we will see a hurricane
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:04 pm

Tropical Storm ERNESTO Public Advisory


000
WTNT35 KNHC 071455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 85.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...
AND WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:12 pm

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:14 pm


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINS
ELONGATED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY CURRENTLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING NEAR THE POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:43 pm

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:00 pm

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:10 pm

16:57:00Z 18.600N 85.233W 844.8 mb
(~ 24.95 inHg) 1,417 meters
(~ 4,649 feet) - - From 130° at 82 knots
(From the SE at ~ 94.3 mph) 15.1°C*
(~ 59.2°F*) -* 83 knots
(~ 95.4 mph) 71 knots
(~ 81.6 mph) 40 mm/hr
(~ 1.57 in/hr) 70.1 knots (~ 80.7 mph)
Category One Hurricane 85.5%
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:23 pm

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 17:16Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 24
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 17:01:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°27'N 85°24'W (18.45N 85.4W)
B. Center Fix Location: 190 miles (305 km) to the E (91°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,288m (4,226ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 83kts (From the SE at ~ 95.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 83kts (~ 95.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:57:00Z
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:51 pm

Looking good

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:57 pm

Hurricane ERNESTO
Special Advisory products have been issued.


Hurricane ERNESTO Public Advisory


000
WTNT35 KNHC 071753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...
AND WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Tue Aug 07, 2012 3:03 pm

Hurricane Ernesto, been waiting to say that damnit.



With bands actually feeding into the center now, as opposed to encircling the core, we can advect moisture and vorticity into the core. Ernesto looks much more promising for further development than he did last evening.
If you want a good link to check out the storms, here it is. http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/gallery.cgi
This provides images all the way down to 250M which is amazing. Here is a 2km Image




Another thing to note is that according to Jason Dunion's diurnal tropical cyclone "pulse" product, it appears Ernesto is going through a dirunal pulse. The warm colors represent cloud tops that have cooled since 6 hours ago, and vice versa for the cold colors. This would suggest warming may occur in the core of the TC- suggesting a collopse of the deepest convection during the day near the core of the TC... This pulse product, unfortunately, is not available for public issuance yet but is a wonderful tool.



Regardless of diurnal influences, frictional convergence could assist in core consolidation in the hours preceding landfall, as the core still appears loose in MW imagery. As the internal structure consolidates one could expect a rapid uptick in intensity at landfall, perhaps to Cat 2 status. We shall see. Who the hell knows anymore. LOL

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by StAugustineFL on Tue Aug 07, 2012 3:26 pm

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Tue Aug 07, 2012 3:27 pm

Excellent Video Tropical Update from Mike that I will be starting to use in my blogs. Don't have to worry about stepping on any other sites toes with this one. LOL. I will also use Levi's and 28storms. Good to have different perspectives.

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:50 pm

Great video, e......glad you posted that one....
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:47 pm


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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:23 pm

CLICK ON IMAGE for real time data from Majahual/Costa Maya MX

[img]
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:26 pm

Methinks that huge convective burst aided on bringing Ernesto a bit further South, along with what the models were seeing.

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:29 pm

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:32 pm

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:40 pm

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by Seawall on Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:49 pm

Nice addition of the video by Mike.
Following this storm has truly been an experience.
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:49 pm

Click image for full page and animation. Excellent link

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by Seawall on Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:14 pm

Saved this one for posterity; the eye might be a little closer than the one posted earlier....

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by Seawall on Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:38 pm

Love the new animated gifs on the NHC floater site!
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 12:10 am

Seawall wrote:Love the new animated gifs on the NHC floater site!

Yea sea, it make things alot easier for the bloggers. LOL
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 12:11 am

Looks good at landfall

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 12:14 am

LOL, I was just thinking the comment that Gomey said in chat today whay do you thing hurricane do when the make landfall, Gomey, look at the above animation.......What direction is it going.....
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 6:10 am

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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 6:20 am

ERNESTO BACK TO TROPICAL STORM



Radar out of Sabancuy Mexico this morning



TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

CORRECTED HEADER FROM HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM

RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE SHOW THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AROUND THE TIME OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL...AN AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATION ON BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLAND JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 979.4 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE EYE HAS
BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE LAST COUPLE
OF GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 60 KT.

ERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
APPROACHES ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCA.

ERNESTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES FINAL
LANDFALL IN MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE CIRCULATION OVER LAND AND
COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. AFTER LANDFALL...
RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF MEXICO.

THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REQUIRED SEVERAL CHANGES TO
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO.



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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by Tropic Bunker on Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:26 am

Great updates and images e! I have a feeling you are going to be a bit busy during the next 10 days!!!,LOL
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

Post by sangria on Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:32 am

Nice update e!! The turn to the west finally happened...
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Re: Ernesto Puts The Brakes On, Florence Downgraded

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