ISAAC found his MOJO

View previous topic View next topic Go down

ISAAC found his MOJO

Post by emcf30 on Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:03 am

Isaac finally found his mojo this morning and is consolidating nicely.



DATA BELOW IS OLD
Recon in the storm at the moment are finding winds stronger with each pass after the MLC and the LLC have became more closely aligned up.

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)

After this re-alinement, the center is further South and 3 recent fixes show a NW component.



Current heading based on these three recon VDM fixes is around 310 degrees. On this current trajectory, the center will only skirt southwestern Haiti. Most of the models are forecasting a more poleward motion in the short term. This is inline to . the last 2 GFS model runs which shows a South dip then a NW motion. This is not good news what's soever. The GFS Ensemble means have shift to the east by a good distance.





This is after ALL the data for lasts night's Gulfstream flight was added into the model inputs. Hope this trend does not continue but make sense to me based on the trough and now they are showing a stronger Isaac sooner. It is panning out currently as it appears Isaac has got his act together somewhat and is obviously strengthening at this time.

GFS Ensemble Means



GFS Operational


These new forecasted path is a much worse scenario for the entire State of Florida. A couple of other models have also shifted to the East. Keep a close eye out on this developing situation. It may change next run, who the hell knows anymore.


UPDATES WILL BE DONE ON THE CHAT WHENEVER TIME PERMITS.


Last edited by emcf30 on Sun Aug 26, 2012 8:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
avatar
emcf30

Posts : 973
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 86

Back to top Go down

Re: ISAAC found his MOJO

Post by GrillinInTheEye on Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:58 am



Good Morning Everyone. Been up for a while just watching and waiting. Had some rain and wind come through here already. Nothing to bad. It's wait and see what the day brings.

avatar
GrillinInTheEye

Posts : 153
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2012-07-17
Age : 49

Back to top Go down

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum